Tips for Tikay

[doubleup]

current tft Ryder Cup bet suggestions/cogitations

looking to have a portfolio in place Thurs night

BigAdz: Garcia e/w top Euro 7-1 (icles test supports the idea of the front of the market in the top US/Euro as the rookies won't play the number of games to be in the hunt)

tikay: Tempted by the USA at 9/5

doubleup on the golf thread : US to win first morning foursomes (3-1 it must be, maybe 2.5-1.5?) 6-1

doubleup on the golf thread: Kaymer top scorer 20-1 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4


room for plenty more ideas, disagreement with the above, agreement with the above, research and navel gazing



 

This was my logic for 3-1 US in the foursomes - wanted some feedback, so just a personal bet at the moment

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=56581.msg1982952#msg1982952

Also thoughts on Victor D and Jimmy Walker.  I think both will get starts on the first day.  If they flop we prob won't see them again till the singles, but if they win they might get 4 sessions.  So they would make bad EW bets imo but might be value win only?

[exstream]

Scottish players in premier league -
alan hutton for villa
bary bannan, james mcarthur, chris kettings - crystal palace
naismith - everton
Robert Snodgrass, Allan McGregor, Andrew Robertson - hull
fletcher - man u
Matt Phillips - qpr
Charlie Adam, Phil Bardsley - stoke
Steven Fletcher, Liam Bridcutt - sunderland
James Morrison, Graham Dorrans - west brom


paddy go 8/13 a scottish player scores this weekend in premiership
6/5 a scottish player doesnt score

im sure someone can work out where the value, if any lies

im on doesnt score, so whatever
maxed at £49.66

Seems http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Morrison_(footballer), who plays for Scotland, was not included in the 'scottish player to score'

[TightEnd]

I was impressed by Jimmy Walker at the Open..I watched him as we were on him and he had a rock solid temperament

Not sure every rookie that plays this will have

would 11-1 3+ points be the worst bet in the world?

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/jimmy-walker-total-points

he'd need to win first time up, whenever that was...which would give him a shot at getting out in a day 2 foursome/ball, then win a single?


other rookie markets

top US http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/top-american-rookie

Top rookie http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/top-debutant

5-1 there Walker/Duboisson looked worth a look. Victor will have to start hot, but the point being you wouldn't have many of the six rookies playing more than 3 times?


edit ladbrokes pay 1/4 top 3 in a six player market top rookie. going to delve further!

[Tonibell]

Ladbrokes are 1/4 1,2,3 in the six horse Top Debutant market. On the basis that Spieth looks to be priced on reputation not form and given Jamie Donaldson's Gleneagles and matchplay record (the Johnnie Walker and the Seve Trophy) you could pencil in £10 ew for Fred until a better bet comes along.

[bobby1]

Ladbrokes are 1/4 1,2,3 in the six horse Top Debutant market. On the basis that Spieth looks to be priced on reputation not form and given Jamie Donaldson's Gleneagles and matchplay record (the Johnnie Walker and the Seve Trophy) you could pencil in £10 ew for Fred until a better bet comes along.

Think its just certainly a mistake as there is no way you would bet 3 places on that market. Almost certain to be settled as 2 places.

[doubleup]

Ladbrokes are 1/4 1,2,3 in the six horse Top Debutant market. On the basis that Spieth looks to be priced on reputation not form and given Jamie Donaldson's Gleneagles and matchplay record (the Johnnie Walker and the Seve Trophy) you could pencil in £10 ew for Fred until a better bet comes along.

Think its just certainly a mistake as there is no way you would bet 3 places on that market. Almost certain to be settled as 2 places.

might even be completely palped.

[icles test]

I was impressed by Jimmy Walker at the Open..I watched him as we were on him and he had a rock solid temperament

Not sure every rookie that plays this will have

would 11-1 3+ points be the worst bet in the world?

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/jimmy-walker-total-points

he'd need to win first time up, whenever that was...which would give him a shot at getting out in a day 2 foursome/ball, then win a single?


other rookie markets

top US http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/top-american-rookie

Top rookie http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/top-debutant

5-1 there Walker/Duboisson looked worth a look. Victor will have to start hot, but the point being you wouldn't have many of the six rookies playing more than 3 times?


edit ladbrokes pay 1/4 top 3 in a six player market top rookie. going to delve further!

That ladbroke eachway was gonna comment. Its dumb and deserves punished

[Tonibell]

If the online chat help is worth anything...

I can confirm that our each way terms for the Top Debutant Point Scorer market are first three places, at a quarter of the odds.

Sorry to be a pain but has this been confirmed by a trader? I don't want to get settled on forst two

I can confirm that this is what is being shown in our systems, therefore this is correct

[bobby1]

This is pretty boring really but I wouldn't be going crazy on the top this and that markets because there are usually a lot of dead heats and multi way dead heats especially in the places. The most likely outcomes of those markets is that going into the singles matches there will be numerous possible scenarios your selection is going to need to happen for him to win that market. Unless your guy is leading that market going into the singles that is.

If you are tied for the lead you need to better what the other guy does and still hold off players in behind etc so in some of these scenarios the odds will probably be no better or even worse than you have taken pre event. There is a good chance a lot of those markets end up in a dead heat.

Just a simple example if your top points scorer is in third place 1/2 a point behind two guys tied at the top your chances of winning the market in full are your guy winning his singles match x the two guys in front of him losing their singles matches. Even at evens each outcome you have had a good week and only 1/2 a point behind the leaders but you are 7/1 to get all three results you need to get a full win in that market. Of course your guy might play great and win his first few matches but how far in front can any one player really be going into the singles matches?

If there is an angle then the top European might be the market. Rory and Gmac have their court case coming up and even tho they are blowing smoke around to say they are still good mates etc I'm not certain they will be paired together. If they aren't then Sergio and Rory might be the pairing and these two are the front two in the Top European points market.

If they are playing together I would look to bet a couple of the other players also selected in the first games as the front 2 in the market's points totals are related then as they are playing together. If they play well and keep winning then you need to beat them the hard way by getting with guys that also win a lot of their matches. If that pairing does lose games tho then you are getting the front two in the market both beaten in just one match leaving three other matches in each session for other Europeans to win points.

The prices will obviously change a lot when the Friday morning matches are announced but if Rory and Serge is one of the pairings then they will be taking out a lot of the % in that market.

cheers

[bobby1]

If the online chat help is worth anything...

I can confirm that our each way terms for the Top Debutant Point Scorer market are first three places, at a quarter of the odds.

Sorry to be a pain but has this been confirmed by a trader? I don't want to get settled on forst two

I can confirm that this is what is being shown in our systems, therefore this is correct

If you bet it then I hope you get paid Toni but that reply is really just the positive version of 'computer says no'. That's just a person looking at the market that we can see is incorrect and just saying it is correct.

[tikay]

I was impressed by Jimmy Walker at the Open..I watched him as we were on him and he had a rock solid temperament

Not sure every rookie that plays this will have

would 11-1 3+ points be the worst bet in the world?

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/jimmy-walker-total-points

he'd need to win first time up, whenever that was...which would give him a shot at getting out in a day 2 foursome/ball, then win a single?


other rookie markets

top US http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/top-american-rookie

Top rookie http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/top-debutant

5-1 there Walker/Duboisson looked worth a look. Victor will have to start hot, but the point being you wouldn't have many of the six rookies playing more than 3 times?


edit ladbrokes pay 1/4 top 3 in a six player market top rookie. going to delve further!

That ladbroke eachway was gonna comment. Its dumb and deserves punished

It is the punter who will get punished. They ain't gonna pay 1/4 1,2,3. 

[doubleup]

I've got a calculator for the fours if anyone wants it.  You just put in the odds and the output is the odds of home team scores and who will win.

You can tweak the odds a bit so that they are the true odds and 1.00 will be shown in the 4th column - less than one is too long and more than one too short.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Byg8Wbbo5p2uVDRhQlhWdV9WZzQ/edit?usp=sharing

[tikay]

This is pretty boring really but I wouldn't be going crazy on the top this and that markets because there are usually a lot of dead heats and multi way dead heats especially in the places. The most likely outcomes of those markets is that going into the singles matches there will be numerous possible scenarios your selection is going to need to happen for him to win that market. Unless your guy is leading that market going into the singles that is.

If you are tied for the lead you need to better what the other guy does and still hold off players in behind etc so in some of these scenarios the odds will probably be no better or even worse than you have taken pre event. There is a good chance a lot of those markets end up in a dead heat.

Just a simple example if your top points scorer is in third place 1/2 a point behind two guys tied at the top your chances of winning the market in full are your guy winning his singles match x the two guys in front of him losing their singles matches. Even at evens each outcome you have had a good week and only 1/2 a point behind the leaders but you are 7/1 to get all three results you need to get a full win in that market. Of course your guy might play great and win his first few matches but how far in front can any one player really be going into the singles matches?

If there is an angle then the top European might be the market. Rory and Gmac have their court case coming up and even tho they are blowing smoke around to say they are still good mates etc I'm not certain they will be paired together. If they aren't then Sergio and Rory might be the pairing and these two are the front two in the Top European points market.

If they are playing together I would look to bet a couple of the other players also selected in the first games as the front 2 in the market's points totals are related then as they are playing together. If they play well and keep winning then you need to beat them the hard way by getting with guys that also win a lot of their matches. If that pairing does lose games tho then you are getting the front two in the market both beaten in just one match leaving three other matches in each session for other Europeans to win points.

The prices will obviously change a lot when the Friday morning matches are announced but if Rory and Serge is one of the pairings then they will be taking out a lot of the % in that market.

cheers

Phil, what is your view on the price for USA to win?

[Eso Kral]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £542.54

Outstanding Bets £3977.51

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=29

No bets completed yesterday

Cleveland. The final frontier. Well almost the final frontier for the Kansas City Royals, 1.5 games behind the Detroit Tigers in their tense race for the AL Central pennant that has eluded them for over 30 years

A month ago the Royals were 4-2 down after 9.5 innings at the Indians when the rain came. They had to resume the game yesterday, before their scheduled game against the same opponent

The Royals scored a run, and got the tying run on base but couldn't pull off the comeback and lost 4-3 to fall two games behind the Tigers with 7 games to go

The Tigers then proceeded to lose to the Chicago White Sox last night 2-0 so this left the door ajar for our 11/2 ante-post plucky underdog

The Royals took advantage, beating the Indians 2-0 behind six scoreless innings from starting pitcher Danny Duffy

Click to see full-size image.

 

Suddenly, only a game behind the Tigers, the race was back on

Elsewhere in the league, divisions have been decided, for example the Orioles last night beat the Yankees to secure home field advantage throughout the play-offs,

Click to see full-size image.

but the AL Central looks like it might go down to the last game

Six games each to go the Royals are away at the Indians and the White Sox, the Tigers away at the White Sox and then the Twins

the Regular season finishes on Sunday

Can the Royals bats finally get hot? Great pitching and defense all year, but when it has really mattered they haven't scored the runs

156 games into a 162 game season, there is a sweat on.

Meanwhile in a Gleneagles hotel, the first official photo of the European Ryder cup team is released

Click to see full-size image.

Advantage USA

This morning, Advantage Scotland. Should be a spectacular event

Click to see full-size image.

Strictly come dancing starts this Friday. Our lad, Thom Evans, is in EVERY tabloid, and is into 4-1 second favourite behind Pixie Lott. Whoever his PR is is doing a grand job for us. We are on Thom at 8/1

Click to see full-size image.

 

Did Rory not get the brown shoes memo?

[bobby1]

This is pretty boring really but I wouldn't be going crazy on the top this and that markets because there are usually a lot of dead heats and multi way dead heats especially in the places. The most likely outcomes of those markets is that going into the singles matches there will be numerous possible scenarios your selection is going to need to happen for him to win that market. Unless your guy is leading that market going into the singles that is.

If you are tied for the lead you need to better what the other guy does and still hold off players in behind etc so in some of these scenarios the odds will probably be no better or even worse than you have taken pre event. There is a good chance a lot of those markets end up in a dead heat.

Just a simple example if your top points scorer is in third place 1/2 a point behind two guys tied at the top your chances of winning the market in full are your guy winning his singles match x the two guys in front of him losing their singles matches. Even at evens each outcome you have had a good week and only 1/2 a point behind the leaders but you are 7/1 to get all three results you need to get a full win in that market. Of course your guy might play great and win his first few matches but how far in front can any one player really be going into the singles matches?

If there is an angle then the top European might be the market. Rory and Gmac have their court case coming up and even tho they are blowing smoke around to say they are still good mates etc I'm not certain they will be paired together. If they aren't then Sergio and Rory might be the pairing and these two are the front two in the Top European points market.

If they are playing together I would look to bet a couple of the other players also selected in the first games as the front 2 in the market's points totals are related then as they are playing together. If they play well and keep winning then you need to beat them the hard way by getting with guys that also win a lot of their matches. If that pairing does lose games tho then you are getting the front two in the market both beaten in just one match leaving three other matches in each session for other Europeans to win points.

The prices will obviously change a lot when the Friday morning matches are announced but if Rory and Serge is one of the pairings then they will be taking out a lot of the % in that market.

cheers

Phil, what is your view on the price for USA to win?

Honest truth Tony my only view is that Europe should win and the tie always takes out too much of the market imo given it needs to go absolutely perfect for that to win. Its about a 13 1/2 to one chance at the mo but I wouldn't bet it at 16/1. So it makes it a good betting market if you want to back either side to win. I've traded loads of these now and never really won a thing either way until last time where it was the biggest losing event I have ever traded in any sport and would have been one of the biggest winners if it had ended a tie.

It's just tough to tip laying the draw at 13 1/2 to one on here tho. The match prices are never going to be far away either unless you have a strong view against one of the pairings. So the singles matches will be the best place to have a bet when there are more likely to be match ups you like. I would just suggest betting the side you like and then spend all weekend on the settee enjoying the action tbh