Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Neil's tips on the Hennessey tomorrow are out

http://www.bettingemporium.com/tips/index/44

3m 2f Handicap Chase
Outright Betting
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4    The Druids Nephew    10/1    
Total stake   £ 60.00
£30 e/w

3m 2f Handicap Chase
Outright Betting
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4    Rocky Creek    10/1    
Total stake   £ 50.00
£25 e/w


both betfred paying 4 places

[arbboy]

I believe each division is matched up against 2 other divisions, so there will be 8 common games, but home/away will be different for many.
So for example this season the NFC West plays all of the NFC East and AFC West, but I'm unsure how the other 2 games each team plays is decided.

I assume they only play each team once, rather than twice, in these two divisions.  Seems a harsh tie breaker as it is not a level playing field (ie you don't play each team home and away)  Sure tighty will confirm.

strength of schedules can be different

each season a team plays

6 games against its division - each team home and away

4 games against another division in its conference, 2 home and 2 way

4 games against another division in the other conference, 2 home and 2 away

2 games against the team in the other divisions in its conference that finished in the same spot ion their division as you last year

so the common games are the 8 games you play against the two common divisions

this year the AFC North plays the NFC South for example, which is dire. the AFC North teams have won all 9 games against the other division. Al have 7-4 or 7-3-1 records which is an anomaly but luck of the draw

On common games Arizona have Seattle locked up on that breaker.  Arizona to me look a cracking bet at evens at paddy and 10/11 elsewhere.  I put up Arizona at 1/3 last week before they lost to Seattle.  Given Seattle's win last night there seems to have been an over reaction to their chances of winning their division imo.  Seattle got a brutal road game next week against the Eagles as well.

[TightEnd]

I believe each division is matched up against 2 other divisions, so there will be 8 common games, but home/away will be different for many.
So for example this season the NFC West plays all of the NFC East and AFC West, but I'm unsure how the other 2 games each team plays is decided.

I assume they only play each team once, rather than twice, in these two divisions.  Seems a harsh tie breaker as it is not a level playing field (ie you don't play each team home and away)  Sure tighty will confirm.

strength of schedules can be different

each season a team plays

6 games against its division - each team home and away

4 games against another division in its conference, 2 home and 2 way

4 games against another division in the other conference, 2 home and 2 away

2 games against the team in the other divisions in its conference that finished in the same spot ion their division as you last year

so the common games are the 8 games you play against the two common divisions

this year the AFC North plays the NFC South for example, which is dire. the AFC North teams have won all 9 games against the other division. Al have 7-4 or 7-3-1 records which is an anomaly but luck of the draw

On common games Arizona have Seattle locked up on that breaker.  Arizona to me look a cracking bet at evens at paddy and 10/11 elsewhere.  I put up Arizona at 1/3 last week before they lost to Seattle.  Given Seattle's win last night there seems to have been an over reaction to their chances of winning their division imo.

to put the consensus view

Arizona have to play Seattle still

If Seattle beat them, they have the tie breaker

Seattle's defense is back in 2013 form, with injuries cleared up

Arizona are on their third string quarterback, with Palmer on IR and Stanton injured last week


against that

Seattle have to go to Philly next week. That's a tough trip to a good team

Arizona still have a terrific defense, so at home to Seattle will be favourites

[arbboy]

I believe each division is matched up against 2 other divisions, so there will be 8 common games, but home/away will be different for many.
So for example this season the NFC West plays all of the NFC East and AFC West, but I'm unsure how the other 2 games each team plays is decided.

I assume they only play each team once, rather than twice, in these two divisions.  Seems a harsh tie breaker as it is not a level playing field (ie you don't play each team home and away)  Sure tighty will confirm.

strength of schedules can be different

each season a team plays

6 games against its division - each team home and away

4 games against another division in its conference, 2 home and 2 way

4 games against another division in the other conference, 2 home and 2 away

2 games against the team in the other divisions in its conference that finished in the same spot ion their division as you last year

so the common games are the 8 games you play against the two common divisions

this year the AFC North plays the NFC South for example, which is dire. the AFC North teams have won all 9 games against the other division. Al have 7-4 or 7-3-1 records which is an anomaly but luck of the draw

On common games Arizona have Seattle locked up on that breaker.  Arizona to me look a cracking bet at evens at paddy and 10/11 elsewhere.  I put up Arizona at 1/3 last week before they lost to Seattle.  Given Seattle's win last night there seems to have been an over reaction to their chances of winning their division imo.

to put the consensus view

Arizona have to play Seattle still

If Seattle beat them, they have the tie breaker

Seattle's defense is back in 2013 form, with injuries cleared up

Arizona are on their third string quarterback, with Palmer on IR and Stanton injured last week


against that

Seattle have to go to Philly next week. That's a tough trip to a good team

Arizona still have a terrific defense, so at home to Seattle will be favourites

Cheers Tighty for the quick response.  Just think Arizona have plenty of form in the book already over 'what might happen' in the future.  Feel they should be a decent fav in this spot.

The main reason i looked again at the market was i couldn't believe how short SF are to win division at 10/1 best.  Surely they literally have close to no chance as they have no tie breakers over the top 2 and are miles behind.  Trying to think of a spot where they can win.  Think their price makes the market.

[scotty2hatty]

On Boxnation this Saturday Derek Chisora is in a re-match with Tyson Fury. When this fight got made it looked like a cynical cash cow of a fight for the Furies after the David Haye pay days fell through. Fury comfortably beat Chisora by UD before, to fight him again looked a backwards step. Well, it did until it later became an eliminator to challenge Wladimir.   

Chisora has repeatedly came up short against the big boys and as the saying goes, a good big guy beats a good small guy. For some reason the KO is a favourite but there's no reason Fury won't settle for the tried and tested method ofa points victory by picking him off at range and nulfying his work up close.

Rec £33 on Fury by UD http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/tyson-fury-v-dereck-chisora/final-judgement

Event Information:    Tyson Fury v Dereck Chisora
Upcoming Fights
2014-11-29 22:00:00
Market:    Final Judgement
Selection:    Tyson Fury - Unanimous Decision @ 11/4
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000789
Placed at:    12:14 28/11/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £30.00
Number of lines:    1
Stake:    £30.00
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £30.00
   
   
   £112.50

Well that line moved quickly. There's still plenty of legs in this at 11/4, 2-1 on points is also fine.

The controversial Irish bookie also have 3-1 UD that can be found under 'exact method of victory'.

What price were you originally recommending it at?

[TightEnd]

Bengals@Tampa bay...Might be the kiss of death but I think finally Marvin Lewis is understanding clock management and field position.With special teams and defense now performing to a reasonably high standard if Cincy run the ball 30+ times they will win.Liking bengals -4.5 6/5 with pp.

Bengals are playing a third straight road game, so you are bucking a tough trend here.

I think their defense has really improved the past two weeks, and that will show up.

Tampa Bay is 0-6 against the spread in the last six at home.

However Dalton is going to have to show up enough to score points as Tampa with Mike Evans definitely have 17-20 points in them

Am going to give it 24 hours to see if we can get -3. if it goes -4 so be it

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/cincinnati-bengals-at-tampa-bay-buccaneers/point-spread

[McGlashan]

On Boxnation this Saturday Derek Chisora is in a re-match with Tyson Fury. When this fight got made it looked like a cynical cash cow of a fight for the Furies after the David Haye pay days fell through. Fury comfortably beat Chisora by UD before, to fight him again looked a backwards step. Well, it did until it later became an eliminator to challenge Wladimir.   

Chisora has repeatedly came up short against the big boys and as the saying goes, a good big guy beats a good small guy. For some reason the KO is a favourite but there's no reason Fury won't settle for the tried and tested method ofa points victory by picking him off at range and nulfying his work up close.

Rec £33 on Fury by UD http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/tyson-fury-v-dereck-chisora/final-judgement

Event Information:    Tyson Fury v Dereck Chisora
Upcoming Fights
2014-11-29 22:00:00
Market:    Final Judgement
Selection:    Tyson Fury - Unanimous Decision @ 11/4
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000789
Placed at:    12:14 28/11/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £30.00
Number of lines:    1
Stake:    £30.00
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £30.00
   
   
   £112.50

Well that line moved quickly. There's still plenty of legs in this at 11/4, 2-1 on points is also fine.

The controversial Irish bookie also have 3-1 UD that can be found under 'exact method of victory'.

What price were you originally recommending it at?

3-1 originally. Apologies for missing that out from the OP. I did take 11/4 myself when the market opened.

[scotty2hatty]

On Boxnation this Saturday Derek Chisora is in a re-match with Tyson Fury. When this fight got made it looked like a cynical cash cow of a fight for the Furies after the David Haye pay days fell through. Fury comfortably beat Chisora by UD before, to fight him again looked a backwards step. Well, it did until it later became an eliminator to challenge Wladimir.   

Chisora has repeatedly came up short against the big boys and as the saying goes, a good big guy beats a good small guy. For some reason the KO is a favourite but there's no reason Fury won't settle for the tried and tested method ofa points victory by picking him off at range and nulfying his work up close.

Rec £33 on Fury by UD http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/tyson-fury-v-dereck-chisora/final-judgement

Event Information:    Tyson Fury v Dereck Chisora
Upcoming Fights
2014-11-29 22:00:00
Market:    Final Judgement
Selection:    Tyson Fury - Unanimous Decision @ 11/4
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000789
Placed at:    12:14 28/11/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £30.00
Number of lines:    1
Stake:    £30.00
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £30.00
   
   
   £112.50

Well that line moved quickly. There's still plenty of legs in this at 11/4, 2-1 on points is also fine.

The controversial Irish bookie also have 3-1 UD that can be found under 'exact method of victory'.

What price were you originally recommending it at?

3-1 originally. Apologies for missing that out from the OP. I did take 11/4 myself when the market opened.

Thanks. Seems like the most likely outcome, I'm on.

[Stopsleyhatter]

Bengals@Tampa bay...Might be the kiss of death but I think finally Marvin Lewis is understanding clock management and field position.With special teams and defense now performing to a reasonably high standard if Cincy run the ball 30+ times they will win.Liking bengals -4.5 6/5 with pp.

Bengals are playing a third straight road game, so you are bucking a tough trend here.

I think their defense has really improved the past two weeks, and that will show up.

Tampa Bay is 0-6 against the spread in the last six at home.

However Dalton is going to have to show up enough to score points as Tampa with Mike Evans definitely have 17-20 points in them

Am going to give it 24 hours to see if we can get -3. if it goes -4 so be it

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/cincinnati-bengals-at-tampa-bay-buccaneers/point-spread
[/quote

Mike Evans is a class act and my thought process is that McCown might try to force passes into double coverage against a pretty good pass defense.However If malauaga and co don't shut down the run Cincy could be in trouble.

[tikay]

£80 on Bristol City to beat Posh on Friday please, 13-8 with 356.

Taylor, Maddison and Baldwin are all out and Ferguson will be on his way before much longer. He's completely lost the plot and is only still there now because of past achievements.

There's no belief and TV games have been tough for a while. There could be carnage here, the crowd's unlikely to be over 5,000 and it's again going to be like a library.

We have zero creativity in midfield and Santos is not ready.

Brizzle have lost their last two, against Swindon and Preston, and this is a key game for them. They'll go out pumped up, expecting tough opposition and will be surprised at how easy it is.

just reached this, 11-8 now at our friends in the Potteries

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/peterborough-v-bristol-city/winner


i got what i could on at betfred at 8/5

£50.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
Peterborough United v Bristol City
Match Result
   Bristol City    8/5    
Total stake   £ 50.00
Estimated return   £ 130.00
Full stake   £ 50.00
Full estimated return   £ 130.00

Bristol City lead 2-0 at half time.

Shut up shop please.

[McGlashan]

On Boxnation this Saturday Derek Chisora is in a re-match with Tyson Fury. When this fight got made it looked like a cynical cash cow of a fight for the Furies after the David Haye pay days fell through. Fury comfortably beat Chisora by UD before, to fight him again looked a backwards step. Well, it did until it later became an eliminator to challenge Wladimir.   

Chisora has repeatedly came up short against the big boys and as the saying goes, a good big guy beats a good small guy. For some reason the KO is a favourite but there's no reason Fury won't settle for the tried and tested method ofa points victory by picking him off at range and nulfying his work up close.

Rec £33 on Fury by UD http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/tyson-fury-v-dereck-chisora/final-judgement

Event Information:    Tyson Fury v Dereck Chisora
Upcoming Fights
2014-11-29 22:00:00
Market:    Final Judgement
Selection:    Tyson Fury - Unanimous Decision @ 11/4
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000789
Placed at:    12:14 28/11/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £30.00
Number of lines:    1
Stake:    £30.00
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £30.00
   
   
   £112.50

Well that line moved quickly. There's still plenty of legs in this at 11/4, 2-1 on points is also fine.

The controversial Irish bookie also have 3-1 UD that can be found under 'exact method of victory'.

What price were you originally recommending it at?

3-1 originally. Apologies for missing that out from the OP. I did take 11/4 myself when the market opened.

Thanks. Seems like the most likely outcome, I'm on.

The Betfair markets have done tiny numbers as the sharps have been reluctant to lay anything that's not an arb on the high street prices.

Fury has gone from 1.57 to sub 1.4 and the points victory will be next to shorten.

[Stopsleyhatter]

£80 on Bristol City to beat Posh on Friday please, 13-8 with 356.

Taylor, Maddison and Baldwin are all out and Ferguson will be on his way before much longer. He's completely lost the plot and is only still there now because of past achievements.

There's no belief and TV games have been tough for a while. There could be carnage here, the crowd's unlikely to be over 5,000 and it's again going to be like a library.

We have zero creativity in midfield and Santos is not ready.

Brizzle have lost their last two, against Swindon and Preston, and this is a key game for them. They'll go out pumped up, expecting tough opposition and will be surprised at how easy it is.

just reached this, 11-8 now at our friends in the Potteries

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/peterborough-v-bristol-city/winner


i got what i could on at betfred at 8/5

£50.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
Peterborough United v Bristol City
Match Result
   Bristol City    8/5    
Total stake   £ 50.00
Estimated return   £ 130.00
Full stake   £ 50.00
Full estimated return   £ 130.00

Bristol City lead 2-0 at half time.

Shut up shop please.

3-0 now

[hector62]

Fantastic stuff Chompy- a real lesson in objectivity that we all should learn from.

[Chompy]

Game went exactly as expected and Poshies are a max lay until Darragh finally sees sense and gets rid of Ferguson. He should have been out after last season's under-achievements tbh.

Tonight proved that there's no problem with the current batch of strikers - the Macattack could go into any decent L1 team and do well - which is good news, it's that lolmidfield and the defensive pairing behind them.

We have Preston and Chesterfield coming up after FA Cup weekend. Both are near-certainties if Fergie's still in charge.

Fumming here.

[Tal]

Circumstances have conspired against your SCD cashpoint correspondent this week. I have had difficulty finding much training footage and there was no Waite's Wednesday Warm-up on It Takes Two to get a good look at (this helps give an indication on the Friday show as to how much the dancers have improved over the week). I'm also down in the Big Smoke this weekend, trying to weave my way to winning a poker comp in Kensington. It's "Around the World" week at Elstree, whatever that is. Apparently, that means we have dances representing different countries and not the logical one you'd think of, because that would make sense. Before I start a full scale rant about it having gone right downhill since Sir Brucie left and alienate everyone, let's get on with business:

From what I have been able to see, I am interested in the fact Mr Will Mill and Mr Joke O'Ral have formed different views on who the second favourite for top score should be. They agree on Pixie being favourite, which is fine, but no one wants to back a 2/1 shot when there's got to be an even money chance two or more tie for top score on the night.

Jake danced a Tango in his first dance of the series and he got the highest score on the opening Friday with 28 (7,7,7,7). His technique was good and Craig commented on his staccato (that's the quick, sharp movements in the head and neck that give the tango that unique feel), while Len was delighted with his body contact (really important to get very close in the tango). This week, he's dancing an Argentine Tango, which is a version of the original tango, where the story is a man dancing with a lady of the night in an establishment of lascivious virtue. So, it has a story, which is good for Jake, he has form for doing well in this type of dance and he's coming into form. now that he's got some of those uncomfortable/self-conscious dances out of the way. Would you believe he's dancing to Zorba the Greek? No idea why they've done that. If only there were a country they could set an Argentine Tango in... 7/2 with Choral is attractive.

I'm not enamoured with anything particularly, but that's probably the best of the bets I can see. I am not expecting a 40 tomorrow. None of the training footage suggests it is coming this week, so it'll be someone absolutely nailing the dance to get that kind of score. Simon is doing a Waltz but seems to be sitting a little in the pivots, which is going to be picked up on. He's the main male rival in dance terms to Jake, but I'd not be backing him this week. Mark hasn't been training much again because he's on the Isle of Nolikeynolitey, which is apparently in Tenerife. Salsa looks flat and cumbersome by the standards of his peers. He'll do ok, but he's not finishing top. Caroline has been overmarked for the past two weeks but I'm still opposing her. This could be madness, but there has to come a point where the judges decide to mark what they actually see. Hard to assess how good her Charleston is when I've only seen her dance in trainers (can't get that all important swivel action in trainers). Sunetra dancing a rumba is going to have to pull it out of the bag to be fifth on the leaderboard. Her latin isn't really strong enough (weight not forward enough and not as comfortable on her own as in hold).

It's a tough week for a winner, but I don't think Jake is a bad bet at 7/2. Recommend £20 for interest but no more.