Tips for Tikay

[Larry David]

Would you mind me PM you tomorrow?

[Larry David]

No to faugheen but.  But at 1/5. Over a1000 bets all day long

[rfgqqabc]

No to faugheen but.  But at 1/5. Over a1000 bets all day long

Lay away

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/horse-racing/market/1.117671482?nodeId=27389854.1520

How can 95% of your betting be maths based, but you not understand that backing Faugheen 5/4ew when the place part is so obviously value and if you dont agree with that then you can do better and just lay the other side at an even shorter price. I don't understand what can possibly be going on in the thread. How can someone claiming to make a living punting think that backing something at 1/3 when its true price is 1/5 is a way to the poor house? Your opinion is mental. I can get with concerns about NR or something else, but this is just plain wrong thinking.

[T_Mar]

Brilliant insight Arbboy - Thanks for sharing

[tikay]

I'm clueless understanding backing the short price fave at e/w. How does it work, what do I do?

just put the odds in this calculator if it says you get back more than 2 its a bet

http://www.sportspreadsheet.com/eachwaycalc.html

That's a great little tool 2xUp, thank you.

[mickyp]

Fred's been busy over night, some interesting chat. Time to get the betting boots on.

[tikay]

Anyone with unlimited accounts and plenty of money should be looking to back the Jolly ew in the champion hurdle tomorrow providing there are 8 runners and laying the win and place for a massive free roll. I would be amazed if an unlimited account with any major firm couldn't get 40k ew tomorrow at 5/4 or whatever price it will be.  You will probably be able to shift the win part of the bet at a small profit if you are selective and the place part will just be a huge free roll and you are 83% to cop.  The limits for the jolly will be set up for win bets but the same limits will apply to ew bets because they just don't see ew bets for the fav in spots like this even though they are massively negative ev for them and huge positive ev spots for the punter.

Only if you're somewhere around 2% comm though surely? No interest if you're up around 4%?

BOOMIO.

Welcome back Mr Chomps, you've been much missed.

Now give us a winner. Or make your mind up about Peterborough.


 

[tikay]

I have looked briefly at the handicaps and the one that leaps out most is Ned Stark in the 2.40.

It is a novice so unexposed, the win price is on betfair at 9/1 and you can get 5 places with Vic tor whcih nails it.  

It is likely beteveryday will be matching it from 10am for those that miss it.

Lots of good e/w races tomorrow, please don't forget to bet, the later days are unlikley to be as good..

Good night all.

Appreciate all the input, Doobs, thank you, & I hope you get the lot today.

[tikay]

For me I don't take these prices,rarely take any odds shorter than 5/2 if there isn't a hedge,just the way I operate.  Backing 1/3 even if the true price is 1/5 doesn't sit well with me one bit, £300x10 of this type of bet at 1/3,3k outlay, you need 8 winning bets from 10 to break even,quick way to the poor house in my opinion.  Just not for me even if 1/3 looks value on a 1/5 chance

Why don't you lay them then?  Must be the quick way to the rich house if backing them if the quick way to the poor house?

I do,lay plenty of 1/3 and shorter.  Rather be a layer than backer at these odds

Ok but that wasn't my question.  I asked if you would lay 1/3 about a 1/5 shot.  Not randomly laying 1/3 shots or backing the other side at 3/1 effectively.  What is the significance of something having to be 5/2 to bet it just out of interest?  Why is the cut off point 5/2?  Why not 10/1, evens, 1/3?  I find it hard to understand why serious punters have this cut off point for having bets and not having them?  It always interests me their thinking.  You hear so many people say 'i never back odds on' etc etc.   Hardly anyone ever says the correct answer 'i only bet when i have a 2/3/4/5%+ edge no matter what the price is' depending on their risk profile.

Would you back yourself at 1/1000 to wake up tomorrow morning?

Ladbrokes offered me 25/1. I reckon I'm at least 66/1.

[tikay]

Fred's been busy over night, some interesting chat. Time to get the betting boots on.

An amazing night. I logged off at Midnight, & when I logged back on at 6am, 82 Posts had been added, & a great debate.

Think that is more Posts than Fred had in the whole of the week before last.

Chompy returned, too, & Camel the Ambo now graces us with his award winning presence.

Love the sound of hatchets being buried.

Click to see full-size image.

Oh, & a special word for ArgueBoy. He can be - well he IS - a perfect pain in the neck when the mood takes him, but if you can't improve your betting after reading his stuff, then you are not paying atention. He's worked really hard for Fred of late, & flagged up a ton of value bets, fair play to the argumentative little sod.

Larry David is a welcome addition to the team, too.

Fingers crossed a few other absentees return soon, too.

Good luck everyone at Cheltenham.

[Doobs]

thanks

tikay, i will take care of the above and any cheltenham stuff in the morning, no need for you to wade through the various races/markets/accounts


still looking for additional ideas, by the way

Appreciated Rich, thank you. I won't have time to mess about much on Fred in the morning, I have an article to write for Next Door, & I'm working in the evening in a masterpiece of bad timing.

If it helps, I already had a look on PP for that horse that Doobsy put up, Jollyann. The 10/1 has gone - 9/1 now - & they would only permit us £6.06. Which is fortunate in some ways, as we only have £7 in there, so at least I would not have needed to top that up.

Forget it at 9/1 I think, I like the other 2 better (Qewy and Seedling) anyway.

Some very good races tomorrow for each way.

I think you can probably back the top 5 in the Champion and get value on them all just because the place terms are fantastic.  It is probably better to wait til nearer the race as we lose one and the place terms are appalling.  I am going to try and be responsible as I can be at work (there is no chance I am not f5 f5 f5 after the supreme, champion hurdle ane arkle), so have to make sacrifices elsewhere.

I have Jezki and Hurrciane Fly already, so right now am Hills mobile for Faugheen, The New One at 4/1 each way and Artic Fire 20/1 e/w too.  Jezki seems like it is getting a bit short though now so for those not on already, it is probably worth ducking, especially as the irish ex bookmakers are the only one offering 5/1.  I also wish somebody else other than Stans was 11/1 Hurricane Fly.  I might have a sneaky peak in the morning!

will come back to the handicaps


edit.  Only got to the 3rd race and already made 3 deposits.  Bank security going to be fun in the morning I guess.

Victor are 11/1 Fly this morning.  They are big on a lot this morning FWIW.  B365 should be big at 10am and I won't be round today.  Emptied the Victor reload already ffs.

Good luck everyone.  Hope BE get the lot too.

[arbboy]

No to faugheen but.  But at 1/5. Over a1000 bets all day long

The bigger the sample the more you lose suits me down to the ground. Happy to just do it on paper if you don't want to risk your cash.  I can understand why you wouldn't want to set fire to 11% of every bet you had as a maths punter!  First two bets today would be faugheen to place at 1/3 and jezki not to win at 1/3 as it is 5/1 to lay generally.

Good luck everyone today. Let's have a nice early 50/1 winner at chelt. That was my bet I pm'd tighty yday. I don't have time to post up the details. Sure tighty will put up the bet details for the record.

[aaron1867]

For those of you who are not aware of the early morning offers around.

Un De Sceaux is EVS with Coral (Max £20) at 8.30am

Douvan 3/1 with Ladbrokes at 9.00am
Annie Power EVS with Ladbrokes at 9.00am

A bit of conflicting views on what the maximums are at Ladbrokes though.

Cheltenham offers - http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=65085.0

[TightEnd]

For those of you who are not aware of the early morning offers around.

Un De Sceaux is EVS with Coral (Max £20) at 8.30am

Douvan 3/1 with Ladbrokes at 9.00am
Annie Power EVS with Ladbrokes at 9.00am

A bit of conflicting views on what the maximums are at Ladbrokes though.

Cheltenham offers - http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=65085.0

thanks, thats useful

going to be a fun morning...

[TightEnd]

the arbboy totesport bet. don't think he has reposted it but i need to confirm it on here

9 Mar 15 - 18:26    Single    1 Bet @ £50.00

P 50/1 Or Bigger @ 15/8

so thats a 50/1 or above winner in any of the 29 festival races


he can explain the maths/theory if he has time