Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Going change at Cheltenham , soft , good to soft in places.

Many clouds around the winning post.

Miles behind Tighty as usual.

Ooh, very good, Jamie is on fire.

Do you take much extra business in the shop today?

[bookiebasher]

2nd busiest day , Grand National obviously 1st.

Had a disaster all week , sticking my neck out on Gold Cup.

Djakadam , Coneygree , Silviano Conti , laying all three

Keeping Many Clouds . On his Own , Houblon on the right side.

For some reason I arranged a game of badminton at 9am this morning then lost my car keys.

I am not a happy bunny.

Anyone want to buy a bookies ?

[typhoon13]

2nd busiest day , Grand National obviously 1st.

Had a disaster all week , sticking my neck out on Gold Cup.

Djakadam , Coneygree , Silviano Conti , laying all three

Keeping Many Clouds . On his Own , Houblon on the right side.

For some reason I arranged a game of badminton at 9am this morning then lost my car keys.

I am not a happy bunny.



Anyone want to buy a bookies ?

Thats made the Gold Cup worth watching now

[BigAdz]

I'm crap with the maths on this sort of stuff, but Betfair SB have 3-1 on McCoy to ride a winner today.

Hargam 13-2
Ned B 9-2
Carlingford 11-1
Princely Conn 10-1
Fletchers Flyer 20-1

If someone could run the numbers, but that seems ok to me? Wont recommend until someone confirms if its good or not!

Anyone from Team Maths around, to run these numbers? Doobs is busy actuaryating, & Argue seems to be on a sabbbatical.

At these prices seems around evens, maybe even slightly odds on.

3's def very good.

Have it at 53% chance at these prices. About 10/11.

Think 3/1 is fine, but those prices are sentimental ones.  Eg his horse should never be 9/2 in the last.  It may win obviously but a horse like that should really be 8/1 or so.  It could be a handicap Rick but we have seen those types starting at 7/1 or 10/1 earlier in the week.  

We should be thinking of backing up the truck and laying...

I don't want to go down the same old roads again, but surely its maths, or its not?! One mans sentimental price is another mans valid price. Of those I suspect Ned,(who was second in this last year and laid out for it), and Carlingford are shorter but the rest are valid.

Sometimes seems that you make these things up to help meet your own reasoning.

Just saying like. .

Either way, from Nico's numbers its seems to be half decent, especially if its 8/11 the other way.

So you think 2 or 3 are likely too short but that when I say the same I am making it up?

3/1 is fine as I said, just the maths isn't as compelling as it would be if all the prices were set assuming this wasn't McCoys last Cheltenham.

Anyway I think we both agree, so nothing to see here. 

 

Yep, I do agree that a few are short. The point I'm trying to make is that you are bringing conjecture into a maths equation, thats the conflict I see. I could point this sort of thing out on most maths bets put up, ie, its pricewise, it wont go on the ground, the trainer is out of form, horse hates the course, but most arguments are drowned out by "but the maths". I'm just saying you can't bring in the "outside factors" when it suits, or you would never use the maths.. See what I mean?

Anyway, we all agree its a bet, and I'm off to the pub. Good Luck all.

Go Clouds!l

[TightEnd]

the £25 william hill free bet has to be used by tomorrow and is the last free ebt remaining from this week's endeavours

i will place it at 12.30pm on a gold cup horse

SILVINIACO CONTI 4
DJAKADAM 8
CONEYGREE 9
MANY CLOUDS 9
CARLINGFORD LOUGH 10
ROAD TO RICHES 10
HOLYWELL 10
bOBS WORTH 14
LORD WINDERMERE 16
sAM WINNER 25
BOSTON BOB 25
SMAD PLACE 20
ON HIS OWN 33
THE GIANT BOLSTER 33
HOUBLON DES OBEAUX 40
HOME FARM 100

vote, give opinions whatever and i will go with the majority

I'm not overly fussed Rich, but if pressed I'd go for Many Clouds, so we can join the (hoped for) celebrations, half of Fred are on it, & we are not.

13 Mar 2015 - 3:20 Cheltenham - Win

Best Odds Guaranteed!
Tip It

Many Clouds @ 8/1

Stake : £25.00
Estimated Returns : £
200.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001239/F
Free bet redeemed
Total Stake : £25.00


let it rain

[Graham C]

Not sure I could handle the swings. They showed one of the on course bookies screens yesterday on the tele for the first race, they took nearly an 11k hit on Vautour and stood to make at least 5k if anything else won. It was interesting to see the real time figures.

[GreekWay]

Really like Value at Risk in the potato race tomorrow. The yard, the step up in trip, the ground coming softer won't hurt, and if I'm being honest, the dope angle, are all positives and there's 12-1 available if anyone can get you on with PP. Don't like the place terms though. Anyone likely to go four places in the morning? Want to suggest Fred's 1pt bet ew at 10s or over if they do.

first things first

the potato race?
at least i had to only get to the third race to find the horse!

1pt e/w ish....

£10.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
3m Novice Hurdle
Outright Betting
EW 1/4 1,2,3    Value At Risk    10/1    
Total stake   £ 20.00
Estimated return   £ 145.00
Full stake   £ 20.00
Full estimated return   £ 145.00

It's sponsored by a potato grower, Albert Bartlett.

Shockingly inappropriate for a Festival race.

The JCB Triumph Hurdle is so much sexier, JCB are manufacturers of truly awesome hydraulic backhoe excavators.

For today's quiz, name the very famous location where this photo was taken. If you don't recognize that stunning wrought iron balustrade & railings, you have been reading the wrong websites. 

Click to see full-size image.

Brighton?

[tikay]

2nd busiest day , Grand National obviously 1st.

Had a disaster all week , sticking my neck out on Gold Cup.

Djakadam , Coneygree , Silviano Conti , laying all three

Keeping Many Clouds . On his Own , Houblon on the right side.

For some reason I arranged a game of badminton at 9am this morning then lost my car keys.

I am not a happy bunny.

Anyone want to buy a bookies ?

Might be interested in a part exchange deal for a poker forum, & I'll take cash for the balance.

We got a deal?

[tikay]

Really like Value at Risk in the potato race tomorrow. The yard, the step up in trip, the ground coming softer won't hurt, and if I'm being honest, the dope angle, are all positives and there's 12-1 available if anyone can get you on with PP. Don't like the place terms though. Anyone likely to go four places in the morning? Want to suggest Fred's 1pt bet ew at 10s or over if they do.

first things first

the potato race?
at least i had to only get to the third race to find the horse!

1pt e/w ish....

£10.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
3m Novice Hurdle
Outright Betting
EW 1/4 1,2,3    Value At Risk    10/1    
Total stake   £ 20.00
Estimated return   £ 145.00
Full stake   £ 20.00
Full estimated return   £ 145.00

It's sponsored by a potato grower, Albert Bartlett.

Shockingly inappropriate for a Festival race.

The JCB Triumph Hurdle is so much sexier, JCB are manufacturers of truly awesome hydraulic backhoe excavators.

For today's quiz, name the very famous location where this photo was taken. If you don't recognize that stunning wrought iron balustrade & railings, you have been reading the wrong websites. 

Click to see full-size image.

Brighton?

Winner, well done George, first correct answer from an entry of thousands.

That ironwork is the same as used on the Regency Pavilion, & there are - literally - miles of it in Brighton. The fella who got the job must have made fortunes. 

[bookiebasher]

2nd busiest day , Grand National obviously 1st.

Had a disaster all week , sticking my neck out on Gold Cup.

Djakadam , Coneygree , Silviano Conti , laying all three

Keeping Many Clouds . On his Own , Houblon on the right side.

For some reason I arranged a game of badminton at 9am this morning then lost my car keys.

I am not a happy bunny.



Anyone want to buy a bookies ?

Thats made the Gold Cup worth watching now

Go away , snob

[bookiebasher]

2nd busiest day , Grand National obviously 1st.

Had a disaster all week , sticking my neck out on Gold Cup.

Djakadam , Coneygree , Silviano Conti , laying all three

Keeping Many Clouds . On his Own , Houblon on the right side.

For some reason I arranged a game of badminton at 9am this morning then lost my car keys.

I am not a happy bunny.

Anyone want to buy a bookies ?

Might be interested in a part exchange deal for a poker forum, & I'll take cash for the balance.

We got a deal?

Let you know around 335pm , ok ?

[tikay]

Not sure I could handle the swings. They showed one of the on course bookies screens yesterday on the tele for the first race, they took nearly an 11k hit on Vautour and stood to make at least 5k if anything else won. It was interesting to see the real time figures.

Part of my enjoyment at big sporting events, especially Cheltenham, is that The Business sends an update to all staff before & after each race of the liabilities on each horse, & I absolutely love seeing the numbers, what "we want", & what will cost us.

Tuesday was incredibly exciting, in a scary way, as the liabilities mounted up as Mullins kept getting the jollies home. 

And so we got to Annie Power's race in an absolute monster hole, liabilites running on were bigger (for horse racing) than anything I'd ever seen before, well into 7 figures, & from the very start, we all knew we were in big trouble. And then that last fence drama......what a buzz that was. Same either way, win or lose, but I sort of get my gambling fix just from seeing the numbers.

It's almost as good as having a bet, just being part of the team, & sweating the results.

[ripple11]

For those who can do Sky Betty

3/1 price boost from 2/1 on offer for Arsenal,Bournemouth Watford to win tomorrow....looks value.

[exstream]

I'm surprised Gold Cup day is bet on more than Champion Hurdle Day.
Am I the only one who thought Monday and possibly Tuesday were by far more exciting to bet on and watch than a mediocre day in Friday with only one standout race, being the Gold Cup which I can't get excited about this year.

[aaron1867]

I'm surprised Gold Cup day is bet on more than Champion Hurdle Day.
Am I the only one who thought Monday and possibly Tuesday were by far more exciting to bet on and watch than a mediocre day in Friday with only one standout race, being the Gold Cup which I can't get excited about this year.

+1, was looking forward to many more races before today's