Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

and for completeness

sportingindex this morning

a late swing is priced in here compared to what polls currently forecast

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

^^^^

Unless anyone has good reason to oppose, I think we should climb aboard.

[TightEnd]

Bet in League One tomorrow which perhaps Tighty would give a view on.

A good friend of mine has been making a few quid backing Crawley at home in recent past and I like them too at home to Coventry tomorrow.

They are good at home, small ground against a bigger club who have had an awful season.

They are 11/5 with Tikay's employer and 21/10 elsewhere.

Definitely value to me. Suggest £15 on Crawley.

hello

no particular view on either crawley or coventry here

both teams right in it, both need a result

coventry are favourites and have been shortening?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/crawley-v-coventry/winner

 Crawley Town v Coventry City Crawley Town (Match Betting - 90 Mins) Odds: 21/10 Stake: 15.00 Possible Return:  46.50

[Mark_Porter]

Can do £20 at 4/1 with boyles for labour plus a tenner on bostwick at 9/1 with paddy if needed?

[TightEnd]

Obv it's arbboy's bet but you can back Stoke at 5-2 not to finish in the top ten if you want to cover the stake or go greeeen.

up to arbboy. i expect he will run it

stoke finish

tottenham h
burnley a
liverpool h

no doubt we will sweat it on the 24th may

[TightEnd]

Can do £20 at 4/1 with boyles for labour plus a tenner on bostwick at 9/1 with paddy if needed?

can you do bostwick for now please? i will do the other tenner elsewhere

thanks

[Mark_Porter]

Can do £20 at 4/1 with boyles for labour plus a tenner on bostwick at 9/1 with paddy if needed?

can you do bostwick for now please? i will do the other tenner elsewhere

thanks

Bostwick is booked. £10 at 9/1

[TightEnd]

Can do £20 at 4/1 with boyles for labour plus a tenner on bostwick at 9/1 with paddy if needed?

can you do bostwick for now please? i will do the other tenner elsewhere

thanks

Bostwick is booked. £10 at 9/1

Single - Oldham V Peterborough

Michael Bostwick - |Player to score at any time|

Odds: 15/2

1 lines at £10.00 per line

Total Stake for this bet: £10.00

Potential Return:£85.00

Time : 3/5/2015-11:35

Receipt No:O/142640973/0000921

[TightEnd]

Ceredigion is a previously safe LibDem seat, with a 21% majority for an MP sitting since 2005 and standing again.

A large constituency it is part rural and contains two Universities: Aberystwyth and Lampeter.

It is this 9,000 strong student presence (mostly English students) that has tilted the seat libdem, despite the rural and large welsh speaking influence elsewhere in the constituency

It is the PC number one target and an interesting battle.

For those 9,000 students, after the Libdem tuition fee controversy in the formation of the 2010 coalition can the party rely on the bloc vote as it did in the last two elections? Might this outweigh the anecdotal trend that the LD vote is holding better in their own seats than national polling suggests, the incumbency effect?

So in 2010 the LibDems polled 19,000+ and Plaid Cymru 10,000+. Some forecasters anticipate a drop in the LD vote to around 13-14,000.

If so this is by no means an impossible target for Plaid Cymru, needing to add at least 3,000 to their 2010 total Their candidate Mike Parker was born in Birmingham and is a television presenter. Might he appeal outside the Welsh speaking community?

Ceredigion could be very close indeed.

Now the really interesting thing

Nick Clegg has not visited the constituency in this campaign.

you what?

its not safe, and its LD winnable. why has he not visited?

his answer "i don't have time to visit every seat"

well they have 57, expected to lose 30. 20 of those 30 are lost for sure. surely Ceredigion should be visited?

i think in a month Clegg could visit all 57

what does not going to Ceredigion suggest?

a) he thinks he doesn't need to visit it, they'll win

or

b) he thinks there's no point visiting it, its lost

or

c) with 9,000 students his visit would be counter-productive....implying they'll lose most of these votes

6/4 PC to win the seat.

all aboard

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/ceredigion/winning-party


as a cross-check

PC have three seats, odds on to hold all three

generally they are shorter than 6/4 over 3.5 seats

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-plaid-cymru

another crosscheck the journalist Iain Dale has forecast each constituency over the past couple of years

last week he wrote (after i first wrote most of the above)

"Ceredigion

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4421 (11.6%)
Labour: 2210 (5.8%)
Lib Dem: 19139 (50%)
Plaid Cymru: 10815 (28.3%)
Green: 696 (1.8%)
UKIP: 977 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 8324 (21.8%)

Sittting MP: Mark Williams (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
Revised Prediction: Plaid Cymru gain

Plaid Cymru seem to be very confident they can take back this seat, which they unexpectedly lost in 2005. The LibDems will be badly affected by the loss of the student vote in Aberystwyth and Lampeter, but it’s difficult to work out how badly. I still think it’s a big call to predict anything other than a narrowish LibDem hold here, but I may well be proved wrong. UPDATE: I had a flood of correspondence suggesting I have got this wrong. Looking at some of the Welsh blogs and academic websites I’m tempted to agree."

http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2015/03/17/revised-general-election-predictions-for-wales

[arbboy]

Clippers godmoded the 3 pointers and SA didn't do much scoring from rebounds and turnovers especially in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. Feels like most nights thats a 10 point win but could be way off with that assessment, I haven't followed the NBA too much.

On to the next one

Spurs had a ton of 'offensive rebounds', and the only one that the Clippers had, was in the last 30 seconds.

Hope Arb has loaded up on his fave hooch tonight, because it felt pretty painful here, and I was only on for a relatively small amount.

Not painful at all.  You can't expect every 6/1 poke to win.  We are sitting pretty on a 12/1 Murphy voucher.  6/1 on wiggins in the till etc etc.  The spurs lost their series when they didn't win the last game of the reg season and home court advantage in the first two rounds of the play offs.  That was an awesome game 7 to watch.  The lead never went bigger than 4 or 5 points all night.   I was pissed up watching it with mates before the boxing but it was a great great game to watch.  Might be the end of an era for the spurs though.  Not sure if Duncan and Pop will come back for another go.

Two of my mates who never watched an NBA game in their life watched it and thought it was awesome before the boxing.

If anyone wants to back Stoke at 5/2 not to top 10 please PM and i will accommodate you for whatever you want within reason.  Remember Everton and West Ham have to play each other.  One of them has to drop points and there is only 3 games left.  Stoke might not need more than a couple of draws to top 10.  Couple of big priced losers which go off much shorter we don't have to panic about locking in and giving profit away for an easy life.  I appreciate most people like a stress free route in life but it comes at a price long term.  You don't buy insurance policies without paying a premium for the comfort.  We don't need to buy any comfort.  We are profitable and roll with the bets we have within a solid bankroll structure.  If anything most of our bets are under staked not over staked relative to fred's roll.

[kukushkin88]

Ceredigion is a previously safe LibDem seat, with a 21% majority for an MP sitting since 2005 and standing again.

A large constituency it is part rural and contains two Universities: Aberystwyth and Lampeter.

It is this 9,000 strong student presence (mostly English students) that has tilted the seat libdem, despite the rural and large welsh speaking influence elsewhere in the constituency

It is the PC number one target and an interesting battle.

For those 9,000 students, after the Libdem tuition fee controversy in the formation of the 2010 coalition can the party rely on the bloc vote as it did in the last two elections? Might this outweigh the anecdotal trend that the LD vote is holding better in their own seats than national polling suggests, the incumbency effect?

So in 2010 the LibDems polled 19,000+ and Plaid Cymru 10,000+. Some forecasters anticipate a drop in the LD vote to around 13-14,000.

If so this is by no means an impossible target for Plaid Cymru, needing to add at least 3,000 to their 2010 total Their candidate Mike Parker was born in Birmingham and is a television presenter. Might he appeal outside the Welsh speaking community?

Ceredigion could be very close indeed.

Now the really interesting thing

Nick Clegg has not visited the constituency in this campaign.

you what?

its not safe, and its LD winnable. why has he not visited?

his answer "i don't have time to visit every seat"

well they have 57, expected to lose 30. 20 of those 30 are lost for sure. surely Ceredigion should be visited?

i think in a month Clegg could visit all 57

what does not going to Ceredigion suggest?

a) he thinks he doesn't need to visit it, they'll win

or

b) he thinks there's no point visiting it, its lost

or

c) with 9,000 students his visit would be counter-productive....implying they'll lose most of these votes

6/4 PC to win the seat.

all aboard

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/ceredigion/winning-party


as a cross-check

PC have three seats, odds on to hold all three

generally they are shorter than 6/4 over 3.5 seats

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-plaid-cymru

another crosscheck the journalist Iain Dale has forecast each constituency over the past couple of years

last week he wrote (after i first wrote most of the above)

"Ceredigion

2010 Result:
Conservative: 4421 (11.6%)
Labour: 2210 (5.8%)
Lib Dem: 19139 (50%)
Plaid Cymru: 10815 (28.3%)
Green: 696 (1.8%)
UKIP: 977 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 8324 (21.8%)

Sittting MP: Mark Williams (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
Revised Prediction: Plaid Cymru gain

Plaid Cymru seem to be very confident they can take back this seat, which they unexpectedly lost in 2005. The LibDems will be badly affected by the loss of the student vote in Aberystwyth and Lampeter, but it’s difficult to work out how badly. I still think it’s a big call to predict anything other than a narrowish LibDem hold here, but I may well be proved wrong. UPDATE: I had a flood of correspondence suggesting I have got this wrong. Looking at some of the Welsh blogs and academic websites I’m tempted to agree."

http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2015/03/17/revised-general-election-predictions-for-wales

This is incredible work. I´ve never felt sorry for a bookie before and I´m confident(ish) that I never will again but how can they compete with this? It´s one of my sayings that to get ahead in gambling (and life) you need to work harder or apply more intelligence than the competition. Seems to me like Tighty has done both here. Thank you sharing this, it´s very impressive. They´ll probably only let me have a tenner each now, the b******s! ;-)

[Doobs]

Our man has been beaten by an angry scot in the tennis.  How bad do we think Nadal is and when is the French Open draw? 

[TightEnd]

this is why england are still favourites in the cricket despite being 107-5 effective

Geoffrey Boycott ‏@GeoffreyBoycott

Never seen a pitch break up & spin like this in Barbados. Done 3 England tours plus numerous Tests commentating over 25 years


feels like 38 for ballance could be quite an ask. he has to get them, and the other 5 tail end wickets need to survive long enough for him to get them

wouldn't be a nice one to lose, thats for sure

[TightEnd]

Coventry miss a penalty at Crawley.....

[Ant040689]

The squad is a little funky looking today but think 11/1 is big enough for a tenner interest. We struggle against teams sitting deep like our last two games but against the big boys can often compete well.

Suggest a tenner at 11/1on Palace with B365 or Victor