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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 14333875 times)
BigAdz
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« Reply #103530 on: July 05, 2015, 11:08:03 AM »

i don't think using arbitrary percentages helps the argument Peter

analysis is good enough not to have to cloud it with sticking a finger in the air.....

Morning Tighty,

It's not often that I disagree with you but I find the percentages really useful. When we are trying to find a bet we are constantly comparing the chance of it happening with the odds available. These percentages are the chance of it happening. If Peter uses terms like, not very likely, quite likely, very likely, how do we quantify that ?
The percentages are exactly what we require.
Perhaps it's the case that whilst Peters analysis is brilliant his percentages are somewhat inaccurate. For instance is Perez really a 55% chance in the group where he was available at 4/1 ?
And if Peter really thinks Button is a 5% chance in his group then 150/1 would be a very good bet but Peter didn't seem particularly excited about it probably because it isn't a 5% chance.

Personally I'd like Peter to continue with his percentages as it will start a discussion to hopefully get them more accurate between us.

Come on Force India.


Agreed.

Peter is doing a great job doing it his way.

If it ain't broke etc.

Go Peter!

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TightEnd
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« Reply #103531 on: July 05, 2015, 11:10:56 AM »

i don't think using arbitrary percentages helps the argument Peter

analysis is good enough not to have to cloud it with sticking a finger in the air.....

Morning Tighty,

It's not often that I disagree with you but I find the percentages really useful. When we are trying to find a bet we are constantly comparing the chance of it happening with the odds available. These percentages are the chance of it happening. If Peter uses terms like, not very likely, quite likely, very likely, how do we quantify that ?
The percentages are exactly what we require.
Perhaps it's the case that whilst Peters analysis is brilliant his percentages are somewhat inaccurate. For instance is Perez really a 55% chance in the group where he was available at 4/1 ?
And if Peter really thinks Button is a 5% chance in his group then 150/1 would be a very good bet but Peter didn't seem particularly excited about it probably because it isn't a 5% chance.

Personally I'd like Peter to continue with his percentages as it will start a discussion to hopefully get them more accurate between us.

Come on Force India.

my worry is it will lead us to make incorrect bets.

button clearly isn't a 5% shot for example and it is put up with no justification for this percentage

i agree with the general point though, discussion is good, just i think these percentages provide fog to wade through. peter's analysis doesn't need them



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Peter-27
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« Reply #103532 on: July 05, 2015, 11:17:40 AM »

Okay, one more bet to suggest:

Points finish - Romain Grosjean @ 23/10 with the exchange. While it is perfectly reasonable that this may not happen, 23/10 is value. I would expect around EVS (which is pretty much what most bookies have). Suggest £10.

Hmmm, there is value in this group somewhere:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/british-grand-prix/group-b

... but I'm not sure where! It's just too close to call between Williams and Ferrari. I would say;

Bottas 33%
Raikkonen 32%
Massa 30%
Button 5%
Are you sure about this figure? - If you are, then Jenson is way overpriced at 150/1 and surely worth a big punt

I would actually agree with the bookies and would rate Jenson <1%. It is probably <1% the other 3 retire and Jenson finishes

5% in my mind means arbitrary low figure  Tongue The only way it will happen is if the other three retire ..

Perhaps Tighty is right with this:

i don't think using arbitrary percentages helps the argument Peter

analysis is good enough not to have to cloud it with sticking a finger in the air.....

Okay, one more bet to suggest:

Points finish - Romain Grosjean @ 23/10 with the exchange. While it is perfectly reasonable that this may not happen, 23/10 is value. I would expect around EVS (which is pretty much what most bookies have). Suggest £10.

Hmmm, there is value in this group somewhere:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/british-grand-prix/group-b

... but I'm not sure where! It's just too close to call between Williams and Ferrari. I would say;

Bottas 33%
Raikkonen 32%
Massa 30%
Button 5%

13/10, or 2.3, not 23/10.

Okay, one more bet to suggest:

Points finish - Romain Grosjean @ 23/10 with the exchange. While it is perfectly reasonable that this may not happen, 23/10 is value. I would expect around EVS (which is pretty much what most bookies have). Suggest £10.

Hmmm, there is value in this group somewhere:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/british-grand-prix/group-b

... but I'm not sure where! It's just too close to call between Williams and Ferrari. I would say;

Bottas 33%
Raikkonen 32%
Massa 30%
Button 5%

13/10, or 2.3, not 23/10.

assuming no bet at 2.3, rather than 3.3

Sorry, typo. It was 23/20 that I was recommending. I actually got 5/4.

i don't think using arbitrary percentages helps the argument Peter

analysis is good enough not to have to cloud it with sticking a finger in the air.....

Morning Tighty,

It's not often that I disagree with you but I find the percentages really useful. When we are trying to find a bet we are constantly comparing the chance of it happening with the odds available. These percentages are the chance of it happening. If Peter uses terms like, not very likely, quite likely, very likely, how do we quantify that ?
The percentages are exactly what we require.
Perhaps it's the case that whilst Peters analysis is brilliant his percentages are somewhat inaccurate. For instance is Perez really a 55% chance in the group where he was available at 4/1 ?
And if Peter really thinks Button is a 5% chance in his group then 150/1 would be a very good bet but Peter didn't seem particularly excited about it probably because it isn't a 5% chance.

Personally I'd like Peter to continue with his percentages as it will start a discussion to hopefully get them more accurate between us.

Come on Force India.

i don't think using arbitrary percentages helps the argument Peter

analysis is good enough not to have to cloud it with sticking a finger in the air.....

Morning Tighty,

It's not often that I disagree with you but I find the percentages really useful. When we are trying to find a bet we are constantly comparing the chance of it happening with the odds available. These percentages are the chance of it happening. If Peter uses terms like, not very likely, quite likely, very likely, how do we quantify that ?
The percentages are exactly what we require.
Perhaps it's the case that whilst Peters analysis is brilliant his percentages are somewhat inaccurate. For instance is Perez really a 55% chance in the group where he was available at 4/1 ?
And if Peter really thinks Button is a 5% chance in his group then 150/1 would be a very good bet but Peter didn't seem particularly excited about it probably because it isn't a 5% chance.

Personally I'd like Peter to continue with his percentages as it will start a discussion to hopefully get them more accurate between us.

Come on Force India.


Agreed.

Peter is doing a great job doing it his way.

If it ain't broke etc.

Go Peter!



Haha, looks like I'm causing all sorts of problems this morning!! My expert field is my motorsport knowledge, not necessarily betting. So I'm basically happy to do whatever you guys suggest Smiley

Although, is the 5% on Button incorrect? This means that 5 times of out a 100, the other three will retire together? Seems about right to me? Especially considering they're (probably going to be) all so close together on track.

« Last Edit: July 05, 2015, 11:19:59 AM by Peter-27 » Logged

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« Reply #103533 on: July 05, 2015, 11:21:45 AM »

no you are not causing problems Peter (I am, if anything, but the percentages without supporting assumptions are like fingernails on a blackboard for me!)

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    Romain Grosjean 2.3 £10.00 £13.00
    Ref: 52450164841 Submitted: 10:40 05-Jul-15

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« Reply #103534 on: July 05, 2015, 12:32:30 PM »

Rosberg can currently be backed to win the GP @4.2.

Seems like a decent price..
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« Reply #103535 on: July 05, 2015, 12:39:31 PM »

Rosberg can currently be backed to win the GP @4.2.

Seems like a decent price..

That's a very good price, do it if you're not on already! Smiley
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« Reply #103536 on: July 05, 2015, 01:55:11 PM »

I backed Nasr not to finish do I get the win even though he didnt start? 
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« Reply #103537 on: July 05, 2015, 03:25:01 PM »

I backed Nasr not to finish do I get the win even though he didnt start? 

Depends on what the actual bet was.  If it was something along the lines of "first driver to retire" then it would be a NR as he didn't start.

Quote
Only cars who are lined up on the grid when the lights go out to signal the start of the race will be deemed to be starters, and eligible to be a "First Driver to Retire" - cars who fail to complete the warm-up lap, or whom do not reach the starting grid will be made void.

That's from Skybet.

If the bet was to not be classified, then you would still win as Nasr would not of been classified by the FIA.

That's my understanding of it anyway!
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« Reply #103538 on: July 05, 2015, 03:46:06 PM »

Had a pretty bad run in league of legends on here but I think Team Dragon Knights are a great price at 4/6 tonight, Hills haven't changed their prices alongside what Pinnacle are right now at 1.4. TDK now have their full roster and are looking very impressive. I reckon a decent sized bet, £50.
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« Reply #103539 on: July 05, 2015, 03:50:35 PM »

It was with Hills in the "to not finish market"  its been settled as a winner.   So fingers crossed it gets through, I snap withdrew lol.  
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« Reply #103540 on: July 05, 2015, 03:55:24 PM »

Had a pretty bad run in league of legends on here but I think Team Dragon Knights are a great price at 4/6 tonight, Hills haven't changed their prices alongside what Pinnacle are right now at 1.4. TDK now have their full roster and are looking very impressive. I reckon a decent sized bet, £50.

05 Jul 2015 - Team Dragon Knights v Enemy E-Sports - Match Betting

Team Dragon Knights @ 4/6

Stake : £50.00
Estimated Returns : £
83.33
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001368/F

Please let us know the result
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« Reply #103541 on: July 05, 2015, 03:58:12 PM »

It was with Hills in the "to not finish market"  its been settled as a winner.   So fingers crossed it gets through, I snap withdrew lol.  

Yeah you're fine, Hills use the formation lap as the start of the race, so the fact he managed to get round a couple corners was all that was needed!
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« Reply #103542 on: July 05, 2015, 04:01:15 PM »

Looking at the 49ers team and schedule does anybody else feel we should have a healthy bet on unders 7.5 wins.

forgot to reply to this sorry

last year they went 8-8

since then harbaugh has gone to michigan replaced by tomsula

significant losses through injury and retirement, willis, borland, davis etc

loss of frank gore in free-agency. iupati also a big loss, crabtree less so

a very tough division as we know. seattle, arizona have a really good defense, rams are building steadily

5 of the first 7 opponents this year made the play-offs last year

kaepernick had a down year last year but of course things weren't right behind the scenes either

so you'd think it would be a tough year, but the market knows all this and has priced accordingly

i think if you pressed me i'd say under (6-10?) but not sure under 7.5 gives you a great deal to go at. i wouldn't say the fundamental talent level isn't that of a sub five win team for example
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« Reply #103543 on: July 05, 2015, 04:59:05 PM »

It was with Hills in the "to not finish market"  its been settled as a winner.   So fingers crossed it gets through, I snap withdrew lol.  

Yeah you're fine, Hills use the formation lap as the start of the race, so the fact he managed to get round a couple corners was all that was needed!

Hilla have reversed result, and also re-settled a bet I had a few days ago were they paid out wrong so my account now has a negative balance, this seems pretty poor to me. 
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« Reply #103544 on: July 05, 2015, 06:17:28 PM »

All six major Greek TV stations are predicting a victory for the No campaign.(polls, but not exit polls, and quite close)

perhaps neeko could give us his thoughts on what happens next after we get the result later
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