Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Today's tee times & pairings are here.....

http://www.theopen.com/TeeTimes#!/R3

Any value in the match bets today?

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/open-championship/betting-markets

[swinebag22]

Today's tee times & pairings are here.....

http://www.theopen.com/TeeTimes#!/R3

Any value in the match bets today?

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/open-championship/betting-markets

I've looked at them all and nothing really stands out individually so I thought about backing the draw in a few

FWIW I have had

Schwartzel/Rose
Walker/Henley
Grace/Casey
Molinari/Jaidee

Obviously, draws in strokeplay aren't that common but all of these pairings seem evenly matched. Also, apart from possibly Schwartzel/Rose, I can't see any of these players making a big charge up (or indeed a big slide down) the leaderboard

they are all 8/1 with sadblokes and 15/2 general so maybe a squidge of value

Tentatively recc a tenner on each one and a £1 yankee

[Doobs]

Today's tee times & pairings are here.....

http://www.theopen.com/TeeTimes#!/R3

Any value in the match bets today?

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/open-championship/betting-markets

I've looked at them all and nothing really stands out individually so I thought about backing the draw in a few

FWIW I have had

Schwartzel/Rose
Walker/Henley
Grace/Casey
Molinari/Jaidee

Obviously, draws in strokeplay aren't that common but all of these pairings seem evenly matched. Also, apart from possibly Schwartzel/Rose, I can't see any of these players making a big charge up (or indeed a big slide down) the leaderboard

they are all 8/1 with sadblokes and 15/2 general so maybe a squidge of value

Tentatively recc a tenner on each one and a £1 yankee

Tikay is such an action junkie he still wants bets when we* have the top 3 in the betting.  I am just sitting back personally.

I have no idea if these are value or not, but if everybody is 15/2 something my natural inclination is that the correct price on the draw is likely to be bigger than 8/1.  I guess draws are more likely for those close together but have no feel as to whether this puts us below 8/1.

* I see we as in thread, as for some reason my Scott bet didnt work.  I checked Hills last night how big my bet was, having funked hard for him all Friday, turns out the answer was zero. 

[tikay]

Not often I drop my jaw at an odds on favourite, but have a look at the 2:40 at Stratford tomorrow.

Penglai Pavilion. That's the same one that placed in the Arc, right?

In a Class 4 Novice Hurdle at Stratford?!

Turns out he ran at Hexham the other week, too!

Punctuation...everywhere..!

Be like rocking up at your local golf course and finding you're playing behind Tiger Woods Dustin Johnson.

Way too many exclamation marks. You only do it to annoy me. It works, too.

Penglai Pavilion @ 4/7? Think it can run unburdened by my money. Quite a fall from grace, though.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/stratford/14:40/winner

[TightEnd]

Winner yesterday

+£42 Rogers series runs o299. the corresponding loser on u345 likely to be taken today

Click to see full-size image.

losses taken yesterday

-£10 giving up on Kwiatowski top 10 in the tour de france

-£20 K Huybrechts beaten 10-5 by an eccentric looking chap in the world matchplay darts. What would his mother think?



-£10 Farrell not a tryscorer wigan v widnes

month to date +£9


golf

we ended up with five in the top 10 and seven in the top 15 headed to the last 36 holes

Each of the 10 rounds in majors this year have been led by either Jordan Spieth or Dustin Johnson.



into the top 15...



with only 3 Asian players left we are guaranteed an each waty return with thongchai Jaidee

cricket

cook out for 96 at Lords



Hazlewood now level with Starc for wickets in the series at 8 after he took 3 and starc 1 in the first innings

Click to see full-size image.

cycling

sagan now 61 points clear in the green jersey

Click to see full-size image.

sky now 13 minutes behind movistar for the team classification

[doubleup]

Today's tee times & pairings are here.....

http://www.theopen.com/TeeTimes#!/R3

Any value in the match bets today?

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/open-championship/betting-markets

I've looked at them all and nothing really stands out individually so I thought about backing the draw in a few

FWIW I have had

Schwartzel/Rose
Walker/Henley
Grace/Casey
Molinari/Jaidee

Obviously, draws in strokeplay aren't that common but all of these pairings seem evenly matched. Also, apart from possibly Schwartzel/Rose, I can't see any of these players making a big charge up (or indeed a big slide down) the leaderboard

they are all 8/1 with sadblokes and 15/2 general so maybe a squidge of value

Tentatively recc a tenner on each one and a £1 yankee

Tikay is such an action junkie he still wants bets when we* have the top 3 in the betting.  I am just sitting back personally.

I have no idea if these are value or not, but if everybody is 15/2 something my natural inclination is that the correct price on the draw is likely to be bigger than 8/1.  I guess draws are more likely for those close together but have no feel as to whether this puts us below 8/1.

* I see we as in thread, as for some reason my Scott bet didnt work.  I checked Hills last night how big my bet was, having funked hard for him all Friday, turns out the answer was zero.  

I did a lot of back testing on the frequency of draws, I'll see if I can find the spreadsheet.  I seem to recall that I thought that when it was an easier course the frequency was higher than a tough course.  I couldn't precisely replicate the parings as I just paired up players with the same score.  Very weirdly, when I actually bet on the draws I lost all the time, but when I did the "pairing up of players with the same score thing" on that tournament, the higher than expected "draws" still occurred.   I can't understand what is going on, other than in the actual matches the players are being competitive and taking risks to beat their opponent, although they might be out of contention for the tournament.


ps I should add that this was on the last day, not day 3 pairings

[tikay]

"....Each of the 10 rounds in majors this year have been led by either Jordan Spieth or Dustin Johnson...."



That's an eye-opening stat.

That used to be Tiger's domain, he crushed every event, or it seemed that way. Absolutely owned everyone. They feared him, he dominated them.

Now he chunks it round at the back of the field, & misses the cut by a mile. Can't help wonder how he copes with that mentally, it must be brutally hard.

Self-inflicted? Yes, probably, not arguing with that, & I'm not giving him any sympathy, he's got more money than enough. But what a thing to see, watching him battle away, trying harder & harder, & getting worse & worse. Endlessly fascinating &, in a way, sad, or it is to me. Taking pleasure in a mans downfall, no matter who he is, is not for me.

What was lovely to see - something unique to golf, perhaps - was the warmth towards him on the course from the Gallery. They were willing him to hit good shots, applauding him at every chance, hoping he might rediscover that genius.

We've only had 2 rounds so far, but this Open has been wonderfully memorable in so many ways.

Did you see the outpouring of warmth towards Tom Watson & Sir Nick Faldo? Nick looked a bit of a chump in that 20 year old Pringle, & he knew it, but it did not matter. I welled up seeing him stand on the Bridge, so proud, with his Son. And when Tom Watson did the same thing it was so, so, emotional.

And St Andrews, did you ever see a more wonderfully peculiar Major course, with all those double greens & bizarre holes, such as the Road Hole? Is there any golf course (of significance) on earth where you come up the 18th with that view of the houses & shops smack bang on the side of the fairway?

Love The Open, love St Andrews.

[TightEnd]

should be a fun afternoon tikay

you have positions on six of the golfers in these groups

[TightEnd]

Middlesbrough 8/1 for the Championship .

Stewart Downing

Rickie Lambert (1/8 to go there as of this morning)

Already a top six squad from last season, very strong at the back, Karanka tactically v good


nasty division to bet of course, but you are going to get a great run aren't you?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/winner

[booder]

Middlesbrough 8/1 for the Championship .

Stewart Downing

Rickie Lambert (1/8 to go there as of this morning)

Already a top six squad from last season, very strong at the back, Karanka tactically v good


nasty division to bet of course, but you are going to get a great run aren't you?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/winner

Was discussing this with my neighbour this morning. If Downing has a good season ,the frontman (whoever that might be) could very well score a shedload.

[tikay]

Middlesbrough 8/1 for the Championship .

Stewart Downing

Rickie Lambert (1/8 to go there as of this morning)

Already a top six squad from last season, very strong at the back, Karanka tactically v good


nasty division to bet of course, but you are going to get a great run aren't you?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/winner

Was discussing this with my neighbour this morning. If Downing has a good season ,the frontman (whoever that might be) could very well score a shedload.

You have neighbours. In Norfolk?

What, 6 miles away?

[TightEnd]

isn't 4/7 just a huge price?

he's going to start 3 or less out of 38 league games?

course not, they'll rotate delph with the other midfielders all season, particularly during champions league participationl

[Chompy]

isn't 4/7 just a huge price?

he's going to start 3 or less out of 38 league games?

course not, they'll rotate delph with the other midfielders all season, particularly during champions league participationl

Who's going 4-7? Just take as much as you can.

[The Camel]

isn't 4/7 just a huge price?

he's going to start 3 or less out of 38 league games?

course not, they'll rotate delph with the other midfielders all season, particularly during champions league participationl

That is the worst piece of odds compiling I've seen since FirstStake offered me 33/1 Tiger Woods would get 0 or 1 eagles at the Open one year.

(And I'm firmly of the belief Delph won't play much - but 4/7 is the biggest rick ever)

[tikay]

Think we should pile in, invest £10, even £14 on that.