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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13330243 times)
hector62
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« Reply #104505 on: July 30, 2015, 11:30:28 AM »

What a weird restriction.
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« Reply #104506 on: July 30, 2015, 11:45:04 AM »

Tighty - see my post on Saints and Iron's reply - fear it may have been lost during the rows!

Let me know your thoughs.

Look like some interesting spots yo have put up recently Dung, I haven't done spread betting before so sorry if this question is very stupid but I'll ask it anyway, when I place the bet (spread) do I have to have the funds in the account to cover the worse possible outcome or is it done on credit?

I think it varies hugely account to account.  If you want an official "credit" account then you need to show proof of funds 4x the credit limit you want.  Deposit accounts vary between needing to cover max loss, to needing to cover a percentage of loss, to just need enough in the account to cover your open position value.  I think it depends how well they know you are your capacity for settling losses.  Peter might be better to ask as he just opened a fresh account and made a chunky F1 bet so will know the terms on new accounts.

I've had my account since the mid 90s, so they pretty much leave me to my own devices.  I used to punt like a merryman in my younger days and racked up some outrageous losses and I always settled promptly so I think I have an unoffical triple A credit line even though it's a deposit account.  I always came up with good trades, but it was my weakness for wanting to bet on every market that got me in trouble (a leak I have mostly removed but still occasionally happens if I'm watching a big sporting event and the beer is flowing!)

It's odd because I opened my SPIN account I guess about 3/4 years back, and instantly they gave me £750 credit limit no questions asked or documents provided. I love spread betting as you say just for better sweats and as much as you don't know your losses - you also don't know your potential winnings and that's what I love!

I immediately ran up a debt of over my credit limit due to this. I sold the prem goals on the weekend of that famous 4-4 Newcastle Arsenal draw, as well as there being tons of goals everywhere else (I think its still the highest scoring Saturday in prem league history). I tried avoiding paying it back for a while as I couldn't afford it and ended up agreeing on £x amount per month which paid the debt back over about 6 months. Of course I thought this was the end of my credit account and did not log back in for a good 18 months or so and was astonished to find the credit facility still there.

I'm just getting a few long term positions on the football this season for now and trying not to sell goals on a really high scoring weekend Cheesy
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Horneris
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« Reply #104507 on: July 30, 2015, 11:45:57 AM »

What a weird restriction.

Max win on that market according to the account scale factor is £50 (rounded down by 2p)
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« Reply #104508 on: July 30, 2015, 12:33:53 PM »

can everyone just draw a line under this now please?

Should you not be taking control of it? You are the moderator after all, but let you seem to let one user, as it would seem, to be bullied off the forum. Yet you also seem to allow the continuous poor language be used on the forum too, yes we are all adults, but some of us don't like to see it.

It's not only this matter either, you just seem to let other users get antagonised/patronised, but let it go

I could go on, but the longer you ignore it, the more likely it will just boil over again and again

it's a forum, arboy, chompy, etc, they are not in charge, but it would seem like it

In a no win situation

I know to my cost that when i have got involved with some of the characters involved...sending PMs, deleting posts etc, dealing with every bit of bad language, trying to keep the peace, mediate etc i have had to write off whole days dealing with the aftermath. i just can't do that i have too much going on, and i am sure no other moderator has the appetite for it either

we banned someone last year (don't ask) and it was harder work than him being on the forum. i think the tally was 27 emails..long emails..we ignored some but then the question came "why are you ignoring my emails" and he sent some more....

I ask again for people to turn the other cheek, agree to disagree and if you can't get on then don't feel the need to respond to the person. if that means you don't want to post, don't post. life will go on.





27 emails?

Really, had that person nothing better to do than try to get back on a forum where the people that run the site don't want him?

Personally if I was even temp-banned from a site and I thought it was unfair, I would never post there again.

I don't agree with Arb about Adz's skillz. Obvoiusly Adz is a mug punter, but apart from chompy who is a totally different league to anyone and we're lucky to have him, I think Adz is clearly the second best judge of horses on here.

Good judge of horses does not equal good punter though obviously.
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« Reply #104509 on: July 30, 2015, 12:59:35 PM »

Spreads are great fun but i've done my conkers over the years on them too. Have had similar scenarios where i misjudged the volatility of a market and played way above the level i should have been. Sod's Law that you never get the lot when happens though huh?!
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« Reply #104510 on: July 30, 2015, 01:46:32 PM »

Tomorrow's Goodwood doesn't look nearly as nice as today's.

The 14.05 is not worth bothering with as it is down to 14 runners.

The 14.35 is better and has a short priced favourite, so the shape is good, but it is sat on exactly 8 (Air Force One is out), so we must wait.  There is one dog, so we are effectively trying to get one of 7 places.

The one I like is Tasleet and if I could get 7/1 and a quarter 123 and guarantee 8 runners it would be a very good bet.   I think it is easier to ignore the two who finished behind Shalaa before, and Log Out Island was well beaten last time.  Ours needs a step up in class, but I like the way he finished last time despite been carried left.  Suggest 20 each way at 7/1 ish and quarter first 3.  Will look to do this about 1pm if the price is still good.

If anything the favourite (Trip to Paris) looks too big in the 3.10 (currently 5.9), so I have backed him on the machine for a small bet.  I don't think I am putting anything up here.

Shybet are going quarter first 4 in the 3.45, which could make it intersting if they'd lay more than a quid each way and thread could bet with them.  I have backed Simple Verse to win at 14/1, but that is just on account that she is 3, unexposed and getting a lot of weight.  It is a crap wach way race, so not going to tip anything here.  Moving on.  

4.20 Maiden, quarter first 3 with quite a few fancied types, and lots I know nowt about. so moving on again

4.55 tough again. Melabi looks better than Montsarrat, but not had a bet yet.

The 5.30 has 17 runners. woohoo.  We will probably have to wait this one out too.  Midlander looks rock solid here, but do we want a high draw this week?  I have personally gone for Judicial because the 12/1 I just got beats Betfair, so I chose to gamble we kept 16.  I assume I won't get that orice tomorrow, so it is swings and roundabouts.  Not sure what has gone on to cause the delayed reappearence, but it is unexposed and has Hughes on board.  It also has the high draw

If I can get the same price tomorrow and we have 16 nearer the off, then I'd rec a tenner each way on Judicial (12/1 and 4 places if we can).

  

Judicial is now 9/1 in the 5.30, so will give that a miss.  It has been off a long time and that seems very skinny now.  FWIW It was gleded during its absence.

There are still 8 left in the 2.35 so suggest 20 e/w Tasleet at 7/1 with Chorals (they go quarter first 3).

I think that is it for me today.
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« Reply #104511 on: July 30, 2015, 01:55:10 PM »

Your bet has now been placed
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Tasleet7/12:35 Goodwood - 30/07/2015
Each Way
Stake £40.00
Estimated Return:£215.00
Total Stake: £40.00
Potential Return: £215.0
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« Reply #104512 on: July 30, 2015, 02:43:18 PM »

Every time I heard about FIFA, I wonder why the people who voted for Blatter would vote for real change. Cynically, the only reason they would do so would be if there is something in it for themselves.  

Why would people (including the FA) vote for Platini if he's promising change that won't be delivered? Why would Africa and Asia vote for a guy promising to change the status quo, when Blatter redistribution of wealth has made a massive difference to certain regions? And why would anyone outside of the US, France, Germany and the UK vote for whoever England thinks is best? We were the reason Blatter won last time out and why the world cup ended up in Qatar!

Platini seems like a terrible odds on jolly to me.

Moon has declared he's standing, having previously been linked with supporting another candidate. 16/1 with shout red man and his PR bandwagon. Thoughts?
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« Reply #104513 on: July 30, 2015, 02:48:16 PM »

Every time I heard about FIFA, I wonder why the people who voted for Blatter would vote for real change. Cynically, the only reason they would do so would be if there is something in it for themselves.  

Why would people (including the FA) vote for Platini if he's promising change that won't be delivered? Why would Africa and Asia vote for a guy promising to change the status quo, when Blatter redistribution of wealth has made a massive difference to certain regions? And why would anyone outside of the US, France, Germany and the UK vote for whoever England thinks is best? We were the reason Blatter won last time out and why the world cup ended up in Qatar!

Platini seems like a terrible odds on jolly to me.

Moon has declared he's standing, having previously been linked with supporting another candidate. 16/1 with shout red man and his PR bandwagon. Thoughts?

Probably end up with Platini plus one maybe two others max.

Despite Platini being arguably almost as questionable as blatter some of the things he has done he is a very Clever and astute man.

Suspect he wins easily by default.
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« Reply #104514 on: July 30, 2015, 02:59:15 PM »

Looking at the Championship last night and it seems Brentford are having a ridiculously topsy tervy pre season after the departure of Warburton. They've fantastically signed a member of staff with the title: 'Kicking Coach' as the owner attempts to bring his stat, numbers ethos to improve the club and get promoted but are we seriously expecting this Brentford side to compete highly again?

'Club captain Kevin O'Connor retired at the end of last season, while regular skipper Tony Craig departed for Millwall' and now another senior player John Douglas has been told he has no future and is training alone. The camp must surely be unsettled.

They bought in Josh McEachran and Andreas Bjelland to strengthen but are expecting the departure of Andre Gray (probably to Hull.)

Looking down the oddschecker list for relegation they're as short as 12's with some (14's with most) but Choral still have them at 20's. The Championship is ridiculously strong this year looking at the relegated teams and even a couple of the promoted ones (MK (sorry Chompy)) and Preston.

I think £10 at 20's and maybe the 18's is a great price to go down for a team that are having such an overhaul and actually over achieved last season because of the Warburton effect.
« Last Edit: July 30, 2015, 03:01:01 PM by GlennDuskTillDawn » Logged

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« Reply #104515 on: July 30, 2015, 03:20:36 PM »

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Tasleet7/12:35 Goodwood - 30/07/2015
Each Way
Stake £40.00
Estimated Return:£215.00
Total Stake: £40.00
Potential Return: £215.0

Another 2nd, never looked like winning, and always looked like holding on for 2nd.

Still profit is profit.
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« Reply #104516 on: July 30, 2015, 03:33:38 PM »

Looking at the Championship last night and it seems Brentford are having a ridiculously topsy tervy pre season after the departure of Warburton. They've fantastically signed a member of staff with the title: 'Kicking Coach' as the owner attempts to bring his stat, numbers ethos to improve the club and get promoted but are we seriously expecting this Brentford side to compete highly again?

'Club captain Kevin O'Connor retired at the end of last season, while regular skipper Tony Craig departed for Millwall' and now another senior player John Douglas has been told he has no future and is training alone. The camp must surely be unsettled.

They bought in Josh McEachran and Andreas Bjelland to strengthen but are expecting the departure of Andre Gray (probably to Hull.)

Looking down the oddschecker list for relegation they're as short as 12's with some (14's with most) but Choral still have them at 20's. The Championship is ridiculously strong this year looking at the relegated teams and even a couple of the promoted ones (MK (sorry Chompy)) and Preston.

I think £10 at 20's and maybe the 18's is a great price to go down for a team that are having such an overhaul and actually over achieved last season because of the Warburton effect.

I mentioned this yesterday - I couldn't believe they were 71.5 to sell on the spreads.  I doubt they'll go down but you're getting a fair enough price for it.

I can confirm McEachran was pretty ineffectual at Watford.  Likes a backwards pass.
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« Reply #104517 on: July 30, 2015, 03:51:32 PM »

 Kevin O'Connor effectively retired at the beginning of last year (1 appearance in the league cup last year), and Tony Craig didn't play after Christmas. Douglas was arguably more of a hindrance than a help from January onwards.

McEachern is an unlikely starter, Konstantin Kerchbaumer has been brought in form the Austrian Prem to fill that deep lying midfielder role. No mention of Lasse Vibe - Danish international who top scored in the Swedish league for Gothenberg, or Philip Hoffman - German u21 striker who scored twice against England in May - being bought in either.

The only really significant loss so far has been Pritchard - and that is a massive loss as he is a fantastic player. Craig and Douglas are league 1 at best.

Interesting reading on the 'kicking coach' here (as well as Gianni Vio - widely regarded as the best free kick coach in Europ who has arrived from AC Milan): http://analyticsfc.co.uk/2015/07/07/what-the-hell-is-going-on-at-brentford-23/

I'd be absolutely amazed if we went down. Not saying we'll go up but I can't see a situation where we'll be worse than 21 other teams.
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« Reply #104518 on: July 30, 2015, 04:21:10 PM »

Kevin O'Connor effectively retired at the beginning of last year (1 appearance in the league cup last year), and Tony Craig didn't play after Christmas. Douglas was arguably more of a hindrance than a help from January onwards.

McEachern is an unlikely starter, Konstantin Kerchbaumer has been brought in form the Austrian Prem to fill that deep lying midfielder role. No mention of Lasse Vibe - Danish international who top scored in the Swedish league for Gothenberg, or Philip Hoffman - German u21 striker who scored twice against England in May - being bought in either.

The only really significant loss so far has been Pritchard - and that is a massive loss as he is a fantastic player. Craig and Douglas are league 1 at best.

Interesting reading on the 'kicking coach' here (as well as Gianni Vio - widely regarded as the best free kick coach in Europ who has arrived from AC Milan): http://analyticsfc.co.uk/2015/07/07/what-the-hell-is-going-on-at-brentford-23/

I'd be absolutely amazed if we went down. Not saying we'll go up but I can't see a situation where we'll be worse than 21 other teams.

Be more interested myself in playing the likely benefactors from set pieces.  The stats with the Danish side with goals from set pieces last season were amazing no reason won't be similar here.

Agreed re o Connor Craig and Douglas. Very little effect
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« Reply #104519 on: July 30, 2015, 04:22:19 PM »

I'm on Brentford to win the league EW @ 16s  Lips Sealed

I like Fulham on the spreads @ 59. Pretty obvious shout given they are now 27.0 to win the league on betty and rate 3 points or more lower on the spreads than sides currenty trading @ 36s-40s.

But the Cairney, Pringle, Ashley Richards, Garbutt signings are all deece and they got 52 points last year when all hell seemed to be breaking lose down there a lot of the time.

Also like McCormack top scorer @ 16s. Some of the Shrewdies are on @ 20s but missed that myself.
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