Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

3 of the 4 strongest favourites in the nfl this week are 2-2 or worse after 4 weeks



anyone fancy any of the dogs at +7 +8 +9 etc?

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/point-spread-coupon

the Rams +9.5 at the Packers was one i thought was very interesting. very very good defense, revamped OL, Gurley broke out last week and we might get 10 points....

[TightEnd]

the Pats, away this weekend, are getting 90% of bets according to sports insights, the highest percentage of public support they have recorded since a game in dec 08

the reasons are obvious, everyone knows brady and gronkowski and the rest and everyone knows romo and bryant are out injured

anyone fancy being contrarian, even if it is just dallas +8?

much much better to back the cowboys as dogs than favourites, usually.

[Peter-27]

Based on the two F1 sessions today, I have no further bets to recommend.

Both sessions were haphazard and we didn't really learn anything relevant.

[horseplayer]

Stumbled upon a big rick from 8888

Switzerland v San Marino

The goals spread is about 5.3.

Step forward Swiss centre back Fabian Schar

1 in 10 goalscorer at club level. 5 in 12 for Switzerland.

The general price is first and last scorer which seems silly short. 8888 are 16s which is a bit big. 16/5 anytime is also a tad big and ool.

However a bit more digging reveals a sub market which is just a massive rick.

TO SCORE FROM A HEADER

Schar is 11/1..... This is just wrong. His 5 goals internationally 4 have come from headers from set pieces, no idea on the club ratio but considering he is a centre back who does not take penalties or free kicks it is a wise assumption the majority/all are from set pieces and a large % of them would be headers.

Suggest the max whatever they will lay fred/anyone who can.

To score a header at 11/1, the anytime "should" be about imo this would make a header around a chance absolute biggest.

In my opinion the first last and anytime prices should be 12s 12s so there is some value there as well..

Win or Lose this is a great spot.


7.45 Kick off cant actually find the team but he usually starts so assume he will here.

[horseplayer]

Confirmed starter

Switzerland: Bürki, M. Lang, Rodriguez, Djourou, Schär, Inler, Zuffi, Kasami, Embolo, Mehmedi, Drmic

[horseplayer]

swiss right back Lang opens the scoring from a corner...

Could be 7 already highlight being Johan Djorou running the length of the pitch ala Beckenbauer and then rolling the ball at the keeper

[TheDazzler]

Good spot Horsie, hope it comes in for you.

[Tal]

I posted this over on the Strictly Thread, as I'm busy most of tomorrow.

Week Three is Movie Week

The first of the special weeks (Hallowe'en and Blackpool the other two), everybody goes a bit mad. The costumes are even more flamboyant, the professionals come up with outlandish numbers and judges often get brought along in the hysteria and give a few extra marks. We can expect the person who tops the leaderboard to get 32. I'd go as far as to say we may well see our first nine tomorrow.

We are looking for less of this...

Click to see full-size image.

and more of this...



It's two hours of big, camp craziness. Logically, this favours the more energetic dances.

As if to prove a point, the Coralol Odds Compiler put his prices up at 6:45, while we had yet to see a few of the performers' latest footage on It Takes Two. Brave move, sir. By 7:30, the top two had drifted and he'd nicked a bit off the rest. I mean why bother sticking the prices up in the first place? Anyway...

The Top of the Market - Highest Scorer

Tough to get this right, because everyone still has weaknesses that are all too easy to spot, so it's a case of working out who might have the fewest.

Ok, so let's start with his Peterness. Dressed as a pirate, with one of the best choreographers on the show as his partner, we can expect all sorts from Cap'n Pete. However, his paso footage is all footwork and no shape. Ian Waite was critical on the Wednesday/Thursday Warm Up and the footage from yesterday we saw this evening has no sign of improvement. He doesn't look the part to me at all. He won't be on last this week (surely!), so no pressure on the judges to overmark him... 3/1? No thanks.

Jay - who has gone from Mick Hucknall to Howard Donald, after his barnetectomy - has great feet and his weight in his jive footage looks very good. It's tough for taller, stronger people to jive (ever tried it at a wedding? Hard enough spinning auntie mavis to Jailhouse Rock. Try doing a full routine with Aliona Vilani who is dressed as Uma Thurman). I like that I keep seeing him in dance shoes and Aliona can play to his strengths for sure by putting lots of spins in it. He deserves to be joint favourite, but 3/1 is about the money. He may tire late on and his flicks aren't that good.

Helen is third at 9/2. She looks excellent and Aljaz has a reputation for working his dancers hard, which Helen complained about today on the sofa with Zoe! It shows, though, and she would not surprise anyone by topping the leaderboard with her foxtrot. It's the hardest ballroom dance to do, but early weeks favour the women in ballroom, because the pro men can lead and cover up a multitude of sins.

Katie joins her at 9/2. Now I think she also looks good and those legs will be doing good things on the dancefloor, no question. Anton being top of the leaderboard in a latin number? I'd want more than 9/2 for that. The judges might save their nines for a quickstep, methinks.

Georgia May Foote is doing a rumba. It's a very difficult dance and she is being pushed to do some intricate moves. She has complained about a lot of spins and Giovanni has said he has put a double spin in, which is pretty serious. It also suggests there will be a lot of light and shade in it, where there's fast bits and then slow bits. That's incredibly hard to pull off. Week three? Hmmm... There is also the fact this will be a slow, sensual dance in a sea of lively, penguin-fuelled hyperbole. It could easily be a bit out of tune with the rest. Darcey and Craig will be critical if she misses a note. 9/1 is not attractive to me at all.

That leaves us with more before we get into the no-channers...

Anita is dancing to Ghost's Unchained Melody (not Robson and Jerome). It is an American Smooth, which is normally done as a foxtrot, but can be any ballroom dance. Gleb has chosen a Viennese Waltz. Whilst there are only four actual moves in a Viennese Waltz (natural turn, reverse turn, Fleckerl and Reverse Fleckerl), it's probably the hardest version to do as an American Smooth. Now, he has danced as a pro on the American and Russian versions of this show, so he knows what he is doing. There is only one reason he has chosen to do a Viennese Waltz: because he believes she can do it. Her footwork looks good in training and she has been threatening to turn a good one in, in the first two weeks. This may be her week. 7/1 might be a spot. My only notes of concern are we have yet to see her in hold in the show and, going by the training footage, there seems to be a fair bit of - to use a Len-ism - fannying about. If that happens, she might get three favourable judges' scores and get just a severrrrn from Head Judge.

The one I really like is Kellie. She has coped really well with two tough routines so far. Kevin likes to test his partners and that can work both ways. He does excel in the theme weeks, though: remember Frankie Bridge last year doing "I Want To Be In America" as a Paso Doble last year? This week: Star Wars Charleston? Amazing. More importantly...she looks absolutely fantastic in training. We all love a Charleston and we all know what Craig wants to see: swivel. There's tons of it. If she swivels any more she'll break her ankles. They look in sync, they have a ton of work to do in one of these, but it's a fun week and everyone will be on their feet if she nails it. 8/1 is a corking price. I'd be happy to back her at 5/1.

Kellie Bright is my value tip for the top this week.

The price immediately shrivelled. Good evening, Mr Choral. She is now 13/2 for Highest Score tomorrow.

Fred has £10 @ 8/1 through me if he wants it.

[horseplayer]

Good spot Horsie, hope it comes in for you.
[/quote

9 corners

a couple of nearish misses

11s was madness

[The Camel]

3 of the 4 strongest favourites in the nfl this week are 2-2 or worse after 4 weeks



anyone fancy any of the dogs at +7 +8 +9 etc?

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/point-spread-coupon

the Rams +9.5 at the Packers was one i thought was very interesting. very very good defense, revamped OL, Gurley broke out last week and we might get 10 points....

Let down spot for the Rams surely.

Huge emotional win against divisional rivals on the roas, now travel east for a non divisional matchup.

[horseplayer]

54 minutes

Schar scores a header

please tell me somebody got on!

[Tal]

What a bossUseless, horsey! Well done.

3 of the 4 strongest favourites in the nfl this week are 2-2 or worse after 4 weeks



anyone fancy any of the dogs at +7 +8 +9 etc?

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/point-spread-coupon

the Rams +9.5 at the Packers was one i thought was very interesting. very very good defense, revamped OL, Gurley broke out last week and we might get 10 points....

Let down spot for the Rams surely.

Huge emotional win against divisional rivals on the roas, now travel east for a non divisional matchup.

I must be ill. I like the Bears +10

The most Kansas City have scored this season is 28 points and that was in the gunslinger against Green Bay. Surely even Chicago can score 19 points?

[horseplayer]

i turned the stream off

the goal seems to have disappeared

no idea what happened must have been disallowed

[JohnCharver]

i turned the stream off

the goal seems to have disappeared

no idea what happened must have been disallowed

Pen goal just after?

[Tal]

i turned the stream off

the goal seems to have disappeared

no idea what happened must have been disallowed

Duly edited