Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Tal,

Shady McCoy looked back towards his old self last night. On one play it was 3rd and 2 and he was going to be tackled by the defender 4 yards away from the first down. Stiff armed the defender, a couple of jinks past others and he made 5 yards on the play

Meanwhile Ivory was up over 5 yards a carry again

There is a lot of variance at the end of these games though

I happened to be sweating Bills +2, under 42 and Ivory

With 3 minutes left the Jets are 22-17 behind

The Bills botch a punt and give the ball to the Jets on their own 13 yard line

one play later Ivory has 8 yards on first down

2nd and 2 on the 5. touchdown to win it, in all likelihood

So what are a playcaller's options here?

Run it twice? Possibly. Quite predictable though

Throw it 3-4 yards, get the first down, and if that fails run it twice? Possibly

On second down they run it and are stuffed

3rd and 2

On 3rd down they call a lateral pass. The receiver is tackled behind the line of scrimmage.

Bonkers play calling

4th and 4 from the 7

An option here is to kick the field goal and with three time outs try to get the ball back, as the Bills are on a run of four successive three and outs

but they go for it

they go for it not to Marshall, Decker, Ivory etc but by throwing over the back shoulder of a blocking tight end Kellen Davis with one catch for one yard all season

Davis doesn't turn round in time, and the ball falls harmlessly to the floor

the Bills get the ball back, and McCoy gets several first downs. the Jets never get the ball back

Unders win, Buffalo with the points win (both are huge dogs only a minute earlier) and we can only shake our heads.  

[KitKeeper]

bazza where would u rank wolfie talent wise in the pdc order of merit roughly?  I can't have it that he is outside the top 25 which the sort of prices we have seen this week imply.

I'd have him about 12-14. Certainly way higher than 25.

He's top 10, easy.

Most are blinded by the PDC and I wouldn't be shocked if half the crowd didn't know who he was.

Adams is class, and always has been.

well, hes not is he.

MVG/Ando/Taylor/snakebite/lewis/wade/chizz/thornton/white/huybrechts seem like a solid top 10 imo (not sure on the actual official top 10) then you got players like jenkins/smith/whitlock/king/RvB/bunting/dolan/VdV some of which I would have Adams ahead of fwiw but certainly not ahead of anyone in the first 10 i named

To say hes top 10 easy is a bit of a stretch imo. 15 seems about right.

I'd have him above White and the very inconsistent Huybrechts without a second thought. Yeah, Kim beat him yesterday, but had to play a hell of a game to do so. Adams beats Kim more times than Kim beats Adams, imo.

I find it very frustrating that PDC fanatics (not for a minute saying you are one, just a general rant) barely even seem to recognise the BDO at times... I am fully confident that, had Adams ever switched, he'd have multiple majors under his belt and possibly a world title.

I'd have him on a par with Thornton on current rankings, if pushed.

But it's all about opinions, and darts is usually on the day.

[Tal]

Excellent play calling IMO

[TightEnd]

Brazilian GP bet suggestions:

Race Winner - Nico Hulkenberg & Sergio Perez both EW (1/3 1-2) at 200/1 with SkaiBet (200/1 on Sergio with WH too). This track has always suited Force India, and Nico Hulkenberg in particular. 66/1 to finish top two is a bit excessive. Suggest £5 each way per driver.

Points Finish - Max Verstappen (EVS) & Carlos Sainz (11/10) with 365 (and others). The Interlagos circuit is a track where talented drivers shine, and I expect that to be the case for Max & Carlos this weekend. Suggest £20 on each.

Pole Position - Lewis Hamilton at 6/5 with StanShames or 11/10 with PP/Betunfair. I hate betting with StanShames after "Nikegate", but on the other hand, it would be extra sweet to take their money. 6/5 is too high. Despite Nico's dominance lately, I suggest £50 on this one. This track is a Lewis-favourable circuit.

Practice One, Top Six Finish - Nico Hulkenberg @ 8/5 with Beewin. 8/5 is too high in a practice session where sandbagging could occur, on one of Nico's best circuits. Suggest £20.

To Reach Q3 - Carlos Sainz @ 5/4 with GLadbrookes. Similar reasoning to the points finish justification above. Suggest £20.

Not To Finish The Race - Will Stevens @ 10/3 with Choral & Daniel Ricciardo @ 9/2 with 365 & BetDred. In the case of Stevens, the price looks a little too high to me on a track like this. Meanwhile for Ricciardo, I think the Renault engine will give up quite simply. This track is very hard on engines; high speed, high altitude, large elevation change per lap. £20 on both.

Sergio Perez (Ind) Brazilian Grand Prix Winner
200/1 Each Way (2 Places at 1/3 Odds)
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £1,340.00

Hulkenberg i have to take 150/1, 200/1 only at sky

Nico Hulkenberg (Ind) Brazilian Grand Prix Winner
150/1 Each Way (2 Places at 1/3 Odds)
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £1,007.50

Carlos Sainz (Tor) Brazilian Grand Prix Points Finish
11/10
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £42.00

i can't get the evens on MV

Max Verstappen (Tor) Brazilian Grand Prix Points Finish
10/11
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £38.20

Lewis Hamilton (Mer) Brazilian Grand Prix Pole Position
11/10
Total Stake: £40.00
Potential Returns: £84.00

Carlos Sainz (Tor) Brazilian Grand Prix To Reach Qualifying Session Three
1/1
Total Stake: £15.00
Potential Returns: £30.00

Will Stevens (Man) Brazilian Grand Prix Not To Finish The Race
3/1
Total Stake: £15.00
Potential Returns: £60.00

Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
Brazilian Grand Prix
Not To Finish The Race
   Ricciardo, Daniel   4/1   
Total stake   £ 20.00
Estimated return   £ 100.00
Full stake   £ 20.00
Full estimated return   £ 100.00

some restrictions, some worse prices, can't do the bwin one

[arbboy]

bazza where would u rank wolfie talent wise in the pdc order of merit roughly?  I can't have it that he is outside the top 25 which the sort of prices we have seen this week imply.

I'd have him about 12-14. Certainly way higher than 25.

He's top 10, easy.

Most are blinded by the PDC and I wouldn't be shocked if half the crowd didn't know who he was.

Adams is class, and always has been.

well, hes not is he.

MVG/Ando/Taylor/snakebite/lewis/wade/chizz/thornton/white/huybrechts seem like a solid top 10 imo (not sure on the actual official top 10) then you got players like jenkins/smith/whitlock/king/RvB/bunting/dolan/VdV some of which I would have Adams ahead of fwiw but certainly not ahead of anyone in the first 10 i named

To say hes top 10 easy is a bit of a stretch imo. 15 seems about right.

I'd have him above White and the very inconsistent Huybrechts without a second thought. Yeah, Kim beat him yesterday, but had to play a hell of a game to do so. Adams beats Kim more times than Kim beats Adams, imo.

I find it very frustrating that PDC fanatics (not for a minute saying you are one, just a general rant) barely even seem to recognise the BDO at times... I am fully confident that, had Adams ever switched, he'd have multiple majors under his belt and possibly a world title.

I'd have him on a par with Thornton on current rankings, if pushed.

But it's all about opinions, and darts is usually on the day.

Wolfie lost yday pretty much because Kim won the right to throw first in the deciding leg (which is obviously a flip pre game to win nearest to the bull).  We got 2/1+ about a flip.  Happy days.  They will still lose 50% of the time.  The PDC has never been deeper with talent.  The top 10 in the world can all easily average 105 on any given night.  Very few in the BDO can get anywhere near that level tbh.  Wolfie is one of the few hence why i think he is a cracking bet at 13/2 to win the BDO worlds this year.  I think his recent divorce has given him a new lease of life and focus tbh and he might actually need to earn a few quid before he retires from the game hence his appearance after all these years at the PDC GSlam event this week. 

[MattyHollis]

Tal, how many touchdowns do you expect tonight? 4/5 maybe?  If so 20/1 anytime is going to be better than 66/1 first.  20/1 anytime must be about equivalent to 90/1 first.  Unless there is some reason this fella is more likely to get 1st than 5th anyway. 

For Buffalo, under 2.5 is quoted around 4/6. You'd also have to factor in the teams chances of scoring the first TD, which is quoted around evens.

Either way there is no value in the touchdown scorer bet in the slightest, it's just a dart.

I prefer hunch to dart, but point taken

Rex is very difficult to predict. Half the time I'm not sure even he knows what he's thinking.

The whole sport is difficult to predict to be fair

I don't doubt your ability to find wrong lines on players etc but a few of these TD 'hunches' you've had lately would get laughed out of town if they had come from anyone else.





Now we sit back and watch Matthew fkin Mulligan dot up.....!

I'd like to think that nobody who makes an effort on this thread gets "laughed out of town", this is blonde, not Betfair.

That especially applies to Tal, who makes as much effort as anyone to rev Fred up, with beautifully articulated recommendations. There's no personal benefit to him, or anyone else, spending so much time trying to help others, except, well, that's how the thread works - we all help each other, & learn how to be better bettors.  If you read some of his SCD & Chess stuff, it's a joy to read, & some very successful pro punters follow Tal's stuff.

Collectively, I'd estimate that Fred must have taken a decent 6 figure sum off the bookies, somewhere between £300,000 & £500,000 at a guess. And it's free to view. It don't cost a penny. And nobody has to follow a recommendation. It works because folks make that bit of effort for others.

A chap - a very profitable Fred regular, made a suggestion last week, just put something out there for consideration. Your reply? "No",. That was it, no explanation, no reasoning. "No". How does that help anyone?

Be great to see you put a few detailed recommendations up, we see very few from you. To my mind, that's the rite of passage if we want to keep dissing those who put a lot in.

Let's work as a team, & help each other. 

 

Usual people that get blindly followed in this thread giving as much reasoning behind a bet as my 'no' comment - I vaguely remember the no comment but can't remember the recommendation. Yet others who post just as regular get questioned for whatever reason.

Then others who come into the thread get completely ignored when putting up a bet (see my Jordan Reed post a few Thursdays back) - whilst conversation continues and bets recc/placed all around you. Makes me wonder why I bothered, and then I see someone putting up something as ludicrous as a 30 year old blocking tightend to score first and nobody else will challenge it.

[horseplayer]

British Airways ‏@British_Airways  5h5 hours ago
@sachin_rt We're sorry to hear this Sachin, could you please DM us your baggage ref, full name and address so we can look into this for you?

Would not like to be in charge of the twitter handle for BA today after that!

[tikay]

Tal, how many touchdowns do you expect tonight? 4/5 maybe?  If so 20/1 anytime is going to be better than 66/1 first.  20/1 anytime must be about equivalent to 90/1 first.  Unless there is some reason this fella is more likely to get 1st than 5th anyway. 

For Buffalo, under 2.5 is quoted around 4/6. You'd also have to factor in the teams chances of scoring the first TD, which is quoted around evens.

Either way there is no value in the touchdown scorer bet in the slightest, it's just a dart.

I prefer hunch to dart, but point taken

Rex is very difficult to predict. Half the time I'm not sure even he knows what he's thinking.

The whole sport is difficult to predict to be fair

I don't doubt your ability to find wrong lines on players etc but a few of these TD 'hunches' you've had lately would get laughed out of town if they had come from anyone else.





Now we sit back and watch Matthew fkin Mulligan dot up.....!

I'd like to think that nobody who makes an effort on this thread gets "laughed out of town", this is blonde, not Betfair.

That especially applies to Tal, who makes as much effort as anyone to rev Fred up, with beautifully articulated recommendations. There's no personal benefit to him, or anyone else, spending so much time trying to help others, except, well, that's how the thread works - we all help each other, & learn how to be better bettors.  If you read some of his SCD & Chess stuff, it's a joy to read, & some very successful pro punters follow Tal's stuff.

Collectively, I'd estimate that Fred must have taken a decent 6 figure sum off the bookies, somewhere between £300,000 & £500,000 at a guess. And it's free to view. It don't cost a penny. And nobody has to follow a recommendation. It works because folks make that bit of effort for others.

A chap - a very profitable Fred regular, made a suggestion last week, just put something out there for consideration. Your reply? "No",. That was it, no explanation, no reasoning. "No". How does that help anyone?

Be great to see you put a few detailed recommendations up, we see very few from you. To my mind, that's the rite of passage if we want to keep dissing those who put a lot in.

Let's work as a team, & help each other. 

 

Usual people that get blindly followed in this thread giving as much reasoning behind a bet as my 'no' comment - I vaguely remember the no comment but can't remember the recommendation. Yet others who post just as regular get questioned for whatever reason.

Then others who come into the thread get completely ignored when putting up a bet (see my Jordan Reed post a few Thursdays back) - whilst conversation continues and bets recc/placed all around you. Makes me wonder why I bothered, and then I see someone putting up something as ludicrous as a 30 year old blocking tightend to score first and nobody else will challenge it.

Those with a PROVEN track record here don't need to give reasoning.

Nobody - nobody - gets ignored, we practice good manners here. Some get missed though. There's a difference. Tighty is flat to the boards with other stuff, so am I. That does not mean we are ignoring people. How do you know everyone ignored it? Maybe some got on. We never ignored your Greyhound bet last week, did we?

I'm not gonna argue this all day. Simply, criticism feels better from those who contribute, & if they don't contribute much, well the criticism is unreasonable imo. We can all sit on the fence, put nothing up, & criticise others, but that's not how we do it here. 

[tikay]

British Airways ‏@British_Airways  5h5 hours ago
@sachin_rt We're sorry to hear this Sachin, could you please DM us your baggage ref, full name and address so we can look into this for you?

Would not like to be in charge of the twitter handle for BA today after that!

Air France never Tweeted me when they lost my luggage last week. Bloody Frenchies.

[ripple11]

British Airways ‏@British_Airways  5h5 hours ago
@sachin_rt We're sorry to hear this Sachin, could you please DM us your baggage ref, full name and address so we can look into this for you?

Would not like to be in charge of the twitter handle for BA today after that!

....and just the 8.4 million followers  

[TightEnd]

No ones bets are ignored deliberately. i remember the jordan reed one, which i only saw the morning after. similarly i wasn't in a position to put Tal's bets on last night, wasn't online except by mobile to read but not post effectively let alone c and p bets

i tend to be on all day then log off mid evening at the latest. things then have to wait til the morning after

as to some people's bets being followed automatically, well yes. Successful long term recommenders over many hundreds of bets have auto bet status. sometimes these are discussed but if there is no feedback they'll go on.

i have to say you can come across as rude and churlish, and being so isn't helpful

[tikay]

I really don't see that it matters whether the official Fred account gets on or not. What's important is that people share their suggestions with others. They, individually, can all decide whether to get on or not.

[HutchGF]

OK, back to business.

Can we back Thornton tonight, 7/2 best price on BV but would back at 3/1+ based on availability of accounts.

Recommend £20.

[TightEnd]

OK, back to business.

Can we back Thornton tonight, 7/2 best price on BV but would back at 3/1+ based on availability of accounts.

Recommend £20.

we backed him yesterday at 3/1, see yesterday's posts.

fatcatstu i believe, with support from arbboy

[MattyHollis]

No ones bets are ignored deliberately. i remember the jordan reed one, which i only saw the morning after. similarly i wasn't in a position to put Tal's bets on last night, wasn't online except by mobile to read but not post effectively let alone c and p bets

i tend to be on all day then log off mid evening at the latest. things then have to wait til the morning after

as to some people's bets being followed automatically, well yes. Successful long term recommenders over many hundreds of bets have auto bet status. sometimes these are discussed but if there is no feedback they'll go on.

i have to say you can come across as rude and churlish, and being so isn't helpful

Well that's great we know where we stand.

For what it's worth my Jordan Reed recc was made at 10am ish and you posted a dozen times between then and kickoff, and made other bets in the meantime.

I really don't see that it matters whether the official Fred account gets on or not. What's important is that people share their suggestions with others. They, individually, can all decide whether to get on or not.

That's a fair enough point, taken on board.