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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13331980 times)
Doobs
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« Reply #109380 on: November 26, 2015, 12:57:49 AM »

Hey Doobs have you had a look at the fighting fifth on saturday yet.
Top Notch is 12/1 after not getting beaten far by Irving, got that run under belt, could improve ?
Ran really well and kept battling in triumph hurdle.
Tougher race tho....your thoughts.

Well he is 14/1 now and Arctic Fire isn't running.  I think he'd be a very good bet if he ran.  There isn't much between him and Irving and he should be the most likely improver (The Triumph was supposedly a very good race this year).  I'd wait for now though as there is no money waiting on the back side on betfair, which suggests a reasonable chance that he doesn't run.  I am also a bit wary of Henderson away from the festival, but I can forget all that if he runs and is 14/1 on Saturday.   I can see hoe well he has run on the flat, but Wicklow Brave looks v short on his hurdle form.  Think I'd question the price on both the top 2.

Really hope he runs
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
tikay
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« Reply #109381 on: November 26, 2015, 11:24:43 AM »

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=65823.msg2100264#msg2100264

Can we do a nifty fifty on Peter Andre to be next eliminated?  The orange fella is a dead man walking right now on strictly.

4/1 is available in many outlets right now including choral.   Can't see it lasting til Saturday. 

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/strictly-come-dancing/next-elimination

we would have to take 3/1, currently, as account balances have been smashed this month



Can't ever recommend 3/1 if 4/1 is widely available.  My edge isn't that great. 

I can do £13 at 4/1 as I was limited in the top up and can't do pp and the rest.

You want it?  Up to you. 

Morning David,

Have sent you the £13 for this.

Thank you.
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The Camel
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« Reply #109382 on: November 26, 2015, 11:28:44 AM »

Is there any need to actually place the bets?

We could be mythically unrestricted by all bookmakers and place bets as such.
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tikay
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« Reply #109383 on: November 26, 2015, 11:40:00 AM »

Is there any need to actually place the bets?

We could be mythically unrestricted by all bookmakers and place bets as such.

I have held that view for some time now Keith, & it solves all the problems imo.

Why does it matter if Fred actually places a REAL bet? It's not about the actual Fred account, it's about a) good recommendations & b) followers making their own decision to get on.

Some sensible rules would need to be put in places to reflect REAL prices at time of bet placement of course.

It's certainly worth thinking about. 

We also had a PM from an elder with some tremendous ideas to rev things up.

For me, we either do it properly, or not at all. Tighty & I both have time issues at the moment, too, what with this & that.

The PM we received yesterday, which we are now discussing before opening it up to all, also had some great ideas. 
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TightEnd
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« Reply #109384 on: November 26, 2015, 12:17:55 PM »

Would people put more ideas up if they were then placed notionally, rather than currently where a number of ideas are put up and cannot be placed?

if so, i think the argument to go notional is quite strong...results provide a framework of how the ideas are doing no more than that and the thread serves its main purpose of generating ideas for people to use, and make money, depending who they follow/what ideas they like. 

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« Reply #109385 on: November 26, 2015, 12:20:48 PM »

an element of realism can be introduced, for example only using prices (for recording bets for thread results) that are available in more than one place or not including some bookmakers where very few of us can get on like boyles and paddy power
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« Reply #109386 on: November 26, 2015, 01:11:53 PM »


Think you would want someone to actually get on with the rec amount for the bet to be valid.  As obviously there are sub-markets etc where books limit exposure, so it would be a bit silly to record huge bets that could never be placed in reality.
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tikay
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« Reply #109387 on: November 26, 2015, 01:15:57 PM »


Think you would want someone to actually get on with the rec amount for the bet to be valid.  As obviously there are sub-markets etc where books limit exposure, so it would be a bit silly to record huge bets that could never be placed in reality.

That's fair comment.

The view has also been expressed via PM that "notional" bets don't really work, as people don't treat them seriously.

Let's keep chatting, & see what we can come up with.

I'm very grateful that folks have been so helpful putting Fred's bets on, but I feel a bit awkward about all these favours. Do it too often & they damage their own accounts, too.   
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« Reply #109388 on: November 26, 2015, 01:56:51 PM »

Brent Celek receiving yards Phil v Det first thanksgiving game

o/u 48.5

zach ertz is out and Celek will be lead tight end

last two games has 11 catches for over 200 yards, two weeks ago with bradford at QB, last week with Sanchez at QB

48.5 only has him in for 4 targets (career 12 yards per reception over 362 catches), don't think the line has adjusted for the shape of the Eagles offense post bradford and ertz this week

detroit is 26/32 against tight ends allowing 7 catches and 52 yards per game over the first ten games of the season

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef


http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/philadelphia-eagles-at-detroit-lions/total-receiving-yds-brent-celek

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« Last Edit: November 26, 2015, 01:58:38 PM by TightEnd » Logged

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« Reply #109389 on: November 26, 2015, 02:02:36 PM »

the Panthers are still underdogs at the Cowboys (first mentioned on monday)

its a holiday game and the cowboys are routinely overbet by the public. looking around i saw one comment that Vegas had to give dallas "some chalk" with Romo back and on thanksgiving

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/carolina-panthers-at-dallas-cowboys/point-spread

olsen should go well over 60

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/carolina-panthers-at-dallas-cowboys/total-receiving-yds-greg-olsen

dallas has been using impressive rookie byron jones on tight ends all season but he is currently having to fill in at left corner with claiborne out. dallas doesn't have another safety that can live with olsen

carolina are a better team though, very strong up front, good match up with josh norman on bryant and on the other side dallas has bad matchups on greg olsen

can't have the Panthers underdogs myself....
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« Reply #109390 on: November 26, 2015, 02:08:57 PM »

the Panthers are still underdogs at the Cowboys (first mentioned on monday)

its a holiday game and the cowboys are routinely overbet by the public. looking around i saw one comment that Vegas had to give dallas "some chalk" with Romo back and on thanksgiving

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/carolina-panthers-at-dallas-cowboys/point-spread

olsen should go well over 60

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/carolina-panthers-at-dallas-cowboys/total-receiving-yds-greg-olsen

dallas has been using impressive rookie byron jones on tight ends all season but he is currently having to fill in at left corner with claiborne out. dallas doesn't have another safety that can live with olsen

carolina are a better team though, very strong up front, good match up with josh norman on bryant and on the other side dallas has bad matchups on greg olsen

can't have the Panthers underdogs myself....

While I agree that the Cowboys are often overbet, do you really think that will be the case against a 10-0 team?

I doubt it myself.

Panthers have had emotional win after emotional win. It must be draining and on a short week, on the road, against a team who are absolutely desperate to win to stay in the playoff hunt, I can certainly see why the Cowboys are favs.

No bet for me.
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« Reply #109391 on: November 26, 2015, 02:47:50 PM »

ok no problem

i see betfair sportsbook paid out on louisa johnson to win x-factor tis morning. steve watts' protege iirc? she is a sure thing to win it then?
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« Reply #109392 on: November 26, 2015, 03:03:59 PM »

ok no problem

i see betfair sportsbook paid out on louisa johnson to win x-factor tis morning. steve watts' protege iirc? she is a sure thing to win it then?

Fleur was a shorter price than her last year  Cry

Cowell threw the kitchen sink at her, in order to get her over the line, but couldn't manage it.

For fiscal reasons, I'm hoping that's the case again...

She's the fave for good reason, in that they're doing the same to her.
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« Reply #109393 on: November 26, 2015, 03:08:16 PM »


Think you would want someone to actually get on with the rec amount for the bet to be valid.  As obviously there are sub-markets etc where books limit exposure, so it would be a bit silly to record huge bets that could never be placed in reality.

That's fair comment.

The view has also been expressed via PM that "notional" bets don't really work, as people don't treat them seriously.

Let's keep chatting, & see what we can come up with.

I'm very grateful that folks have been so helpful putting Fred's bets on, but I feel a bit awkward about all these favours. Do it too often & they damage their own accounts, too.   

I do enough of my own stuff, so I don't need to worry about that Wink
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« Reply #109394 on: November 26, 2015, 03:21:12 PM »

ok no problem

i see betfair sportsbook paid out on louisa johnson to win x-factor tis morning. steve watts' protege iirc? she is a sure thing to win it then?

Fleur was a shorter price than her last year  Cry

Cowell threw the kitchen sink at her, in order to get her over the line, but couldn't manage it.

For fiscal reasons, I'm hoping that's the case again...

She's the fave for good reason, in that they're doing the same to her.


I just don't see her winning it.
She can obviously sing, but there is nothing exciting about her or anything to connect with.

I think Lauren gets there, but I'm going to be cheering on Reggie & Boli!
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