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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13330141 times)
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« Reply #113745 on: February 13, 2016, 08:29:13 PM »

I knwo that Nelly has fast become the go-to cricket expert in these parts, but I thought I would chance my arm!

The Masters T20 competition starts in the UAE in a few days time over a 2 week period, and I have been having a look at it.

The squads are mixed with legends of the game and players who are still playing, with notable abscentees in the likes of Chris Gayle and co, and, for me, the team that stands out is the Gemini Arabians (terrible names all round in this tournament)

Gemini Arabians - 3/1
They boast a squad with, in my opinion the most batting fire power, in the competition, with Virender Sehwag captaining them, they also have Kumar Sangakkara, Jaques Rudolph, Shiv Chanderpaul, Richard Levi, Brad Hodge in their batting lineup.

Obviously, Sangakkara stands out immediately, he is an all time great batsman, who is still playing around the world in limited formats and scores runs for fun. They also have Richard Levi, a huge hitting South African opening bat, averaging 28 in t20 mathces with a top score of 117, who I fancy to get stuck in to some of the more ageing opening bowlers who will be playing.

Bowling, they have Rana Naveed and Graham Onions, Onions obviously still playing to a high standard for Durham, Justin Kemp who is a former international all rounder, and a plethora of spin options, including Muralitharan, Hodge, Paul Adams (known for having his bowling action described as being like a frog in a blender) and Saqlain Musthaq.

For me, this is the strongest squad of any team in the contest, certainly with the bat, and with a bowling team that can be competitive too, we have seen how spin bowlers have come increasingly to the fore in T20 cricket.

Virgo Superkings - 11/2

Led by former South Africa captain Graeme Smith.

Batting they have Smith, Owais Shah and Mohammad Yousuf that really stand out, with all-rounder Jacob oram providing some big hitting in the middle order and millitary medium pace with the ball. They have Dirk Nannes and Brett Lee with searing pace at the top of their bowling unit, and Murali Kartik and Gareth Batty to provide spin options.

They are the betting outsiders for this one, but i think they have an ok team, but not as much quality in their current players as they should have.


Libra Legends - 3/1

Captained by Indian great Soutav Ganguly, they have what looks to good batting team, which may be slightly light on high quality bowlers.

The batting lineup will include current players Michael Lumb, Sean Irvine and Jaques Kallis (still playing T20 cricket) and hard biffing all rounder Ryan Ten Doeschate, with older players like Marcus North, Brad Hogg and ganguly to back them up. They should be able to be competitive with that lot.

Bowling, they are relying more on experience. Ryan Sidebottom is in their team and will offer control first up, and Shaun Tait will put some fire in the attack. After that, they will be relying on the spin of Graeme Swann and Hogg, along with the nouse of Kallis to get them by.

You never know how the older bowlers are going to fair in this kind of contest, and if people manage to get after the likes of Swann and Tait, they will find keeping scores down difficult in my opinion.


Capricorn Commanders - 7/2

Paul Collingwood is the skipper and the squad seems to be fashioned in his no frills approach to cricket.

Lacking any real superstar names, they are made up of solid pros and older stalwarts.

Michael Vaughan (possiby my favourite batsman of all time, what a cover drive he had!) Chamara Silva and  Ashwell Prince are the main batting threats along with Collingwood, and they will get support from allrounders Andrew Symonds, Ryan McClaren and Rikki Clarke.

Bowling, they have no outright pace, lots of allround medium pace dibbly dobbly nonsence, but Jeetan Patel will be a huge player for them. The Kiwi spinner will be their main source of wickets.

Think 7/2 is far too short for them.


Leo Lions - 11/2

Possibly one of the 3 greatest batsmen that ever lived, Brian Charles Lara, captains a team that sounds like it was named by a 6 year old.

Theya re another team who seem to have gone for experience over younger players.

Lara will be joined in the batting lineup by the fantastically entertaining (back in the day) Herschelle Gibbs, Brendan Taylor and  Hamish Marshall in needing to score the bulk of the runs. After them, it i another plethora of allround options, with the likes of Heath Streak being relied upon to get them if the top order fail.

Bowling will rely heavily on Fidel Edwards to provide pace up front, after which Johan Botha and Robin Peterson will be looking to take wickets in the middle overs with their spin.

Overall, another team that shouldnt provide too much of a threat this year.


Sagittarius Strikers - 5/1

The Strikers have gone for a gun batting lineup this year, with Adam Gilchrist (c) Mahela Jayawardene, Phil mustard, alviro Petersen, Jonathon Trott and Michael Carberry providing what looks like a high powered batting attack.

Bowling wise, they arent looking very clever though. Daniel Vettori will be the pick of them, a great one day bowler who never goes for many runs, he will be needed to roll back the years if they are too have any success here. Tino Best, Nathan Hauritz and the legend that is Mushy Ahmed are the pick of the rest of the bowlers, and this is the reason why they will probably not do as well as their batting lineup suggests they should.


In my opinion, the best bet for this year would be the Gemini Arabians.

I know 3/1 arent massive odds, but i think they are big enough to take. Their bowling lineup possesses quality spinners and some very good pace options, and they have possibly the top batsman in the competition in Sangakkara with more than capable back up.

It is a short format, and I can see them doing well in it.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/masters-champions-league/winner

Recommend £50 on Gemini Arabians to win the Masters Champions League at 3/1

very good well done
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« Reply #113746 on: February 13, 2016, 09:30:32 PM »

Thiem wins 3rd set TB

Hector too good

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« Reply #113747 on: February 13, 2016, 09:56:09 PM »

Wow, wd Hector 
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« Reply #113748 on: February 13, 2016, 10:30:55 PM »


More good work by hector, an amazing nose for value.

Good stuff by Stu in the cricket too, always in good shape, though tonight was a sweat.

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« Reply #113749 on: February 13, 2016, 10:46:24 PM »

Hector still delivers even with me aboard Smiley

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« Reply #113750 on: February 13, 2016, 10:47:23 PM »

Tom Ford bows out of the Snooker Shootout in last 32 unfortunately. Fun frame including a scramble against the clock at the end after he fluked a red but wasn't to be.
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« Reply #113751 on: February 14, 2016, 12:01:27 AM »

Thiem will play Almagro in tomorrow's final, probably the better opponent for our bet. They have met only once before, at this years Aussie open, and Thiem won 3-0 but can't read too much into that as this is a vastly different surface.
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« Reply #113752 on: February 14, 2016, 01:26:03 AM »

Thiem will play Almagro in tomorrow's final, probably the better opponent for our bet. They have met only once before, at this years Aussie open, and Thiem won 3-0 but can't read too much into that as this is a vastly different surface.

Mr H.

You da man.

GL us tomorrow. WP again sir.
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« Reply #113753 on: February 14, 2016, 10:08:16 AM »

Daily Report

Loss yesterday -£10.00

Profit on Month £88.43


Outstanding Bets £3394.80

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eCEvN9MELsUxB81rHuWrfoX3zwIMPQQ205Lcjm3kbgU/edit#gid=19


Yesterday

+£75 Gemini Arabians win the MCL

Sangakarra to the fore all tournament

 Click to see full-size image.


and Pakistani fast bowler won it with a late spell in the final



-£60 Horses in the betfair hurdle
-£20 west ham to beat norwich
-£5 Ford to win the Snooker shootout

ongoing

£5 e/w on Thiem at 22-1 in the ATP Buenos Aires final today against Almagro



£18 at 11/4 on England to win the ODI series 3-2, England currently batting 76-2 after losing the toss.

 Click to see full-size image.


Hazlewood and Lyon have five wickets each of the 14 to fall so far at Wellington

 Click to see full-size image.


Wales beat Scotland to be handily placed in the six nations after 2 games



Watford win at Palace. Long of season points at 35.5 they now have 36 so every point from here adds £10 to the coffers





Norwich blow a 2 goal lead against West Ham, only abject Newcastle's performance kept them out of the bottom 3



Sunderland's win bad news for the relegation bet

Martial scores for Man U. We have him to be top Man U league scorer







QPR lose at home to Fulham, that's 2 wins in JFH's first 12 games and no wins for QPR in their last 16 London derbies



Preston win at Wolves, bad news for the Leeds match bet with Preston now six points ahead . Preston have only lost 4 of their last 21 lge games (W9 ). 

A point for Charlton, which at least lops a fiver off the end of season spread bet bill

A point for Wigan who lost ground to the three teams above them

Peterborough bounced back from their FA Cup penalties exit with a 4-0 home loss to Bradford

Bury lost 6-0 to Coventry but are still 7 points ahead of Cesterfield in that £144 match bet

Cambridge lost 2-0 at Stevange and continue to look up at the top seven position we need

Griffiths scored for Celtic, bad news for Rooney top scorer and celtic won 2-0 bad news for Aberdenn



 


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« Reply #113754 on: February 14, 2016, 10:42:42 AM »

Morning Tighty.

Next week we have the world series of rugby league matches. The English clubs take these matches very seriously and I like to oppose those teams in the week before. It paid off in spades on Thursday with St Helens capitulation to Salford and today I suggest we oppose Leeds who go to Widnes. I can see Leeds putting out a weakish team as Widnes plastic pitch puts huge strain on knees and ankles. In addition Leeds have lost Maguire, and with Sinfield and Peacock retired there is a dirth of decision makers left.

Suggest £15 Widnes @ 2-1 with Hills.
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« Reply #113755 on: February 14, 2016, 10:48:35 AM »

I think we should consider a position in the Candidates chess tournament for next month. This is the tournament that determines who gets to play Magnus Carlsen for the World Championship.

Hikaru Nakamura, Levon Aronian and Fabiano Caruana are all around the 7/2 mark. Nakamura is inconsistent, Caruana played reasonably in Wijk aan Zee but had a monumental blow up in his last game and Aronian is, despite his incredible talent, known for struggling in big elite comps when the pressure is really on. In horse racing terms, they are understandably at the head of the market, but one jumps untidily, one has stamina doubts and one struggles at Cheltenham.

Karjakin can't draw his way to victory. He's The Giant Bolster or TeaForThree type: he will plod around the course and finish high enough to make you think he's always in contention,  but he probably isn't. Giri is better than that but he has a mistake in his locker and 9/2 is about his price.

That leaves us with the three outsiders. As much as I like Peter Svidler (and he has just spent two weeks analysing most of these chaps' games for the commentary at Wijk aan Zee), I don't see him having the power to outmuscle or the skill to outplay this field.

Now, we have the only two people in the field who have competed for a World Title.

Veselin Topalov - the making who came roaring back in 2015 after a few years of relative indifference - is 9/1. He was world number 2 in July last year, behind only Carlsen. However, he got royally beaten up in the London Chess Classic in December and hasn't been back since. He has an attacking style but with that comes risk.

That leaves 46 year old Viswanathan Anand. He was the last World Champ, losing to Carlsen the last twice. He surprised the bookies when he won the last Candidates comp and I look at this field and see exactly the same sort of field: question marks, plodders and so on.

He's currently playing a quickplay event this weekend in Zurich against Giri, Aronian, Nakamura, Shirov and Kramnik. He had a great Saturday, defeating Giri and spanking Aronian. If he wins this event, I can't see 13/1 lasting. I will say Anand has a poor record against Nakamura historically, but this is a high pressure tournament and you can't back a 13/1 shot without accepting some negatives.

Two former World Champions (Topalov won the FIDE World Championship a few years ago, which was the chess equivalent of the BDO Darts) and two people who have been through the Candidates cycle and won it. Course and distance winners and both in the top three in the ratings just a few months ago.

I'm holding fire on Topalov for now. His price won't improve much between now and kick off, whereas Anand's may well.

The 13/1 is with Three Fat Ladies (888), which I understand we have. Recommend £20 on Vishy Anand to win.

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« Reply #113756 on: February 14, 2016, 10:52:54 AM »



Watford win at Palace. Long of season points at 35.5 they now have 36 so every point from here adds £10 to the coffers



Excellent work, congrats to whoever tipped this.
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« Reply #113757 on: February 14, 2016, 10:57:02 AM »

Morning Tighty.

Next week we have the world series of rugby league matches. The English clubs take these matches very seriously and I like to oppose those teams in the week before. It paid off in spades on Thursday with St Helens capitulation to Salford and today I suggest we oppose Leeds who go to Widnes. I can see Leeds putting out a weakish team as Widnes plastic pitch puts huge strain on knees and ankles. In addition Leeds have lost Maguire, and with Sinfield and Peacock retired there is a dirth of decision makers left.

Suggest £15 Widnes @ 2-1 with Hills.

Widnes Widnes v Leeds Winner
2/1
Total Stake: £15.00
Potential Returns: £45.00
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« Reply #113758 on: February 14, 2016, 11:00:06 AM »


The 13/1 is with Three Fat Ladies (888), which I understand we have. Recommend £20 on Vishy Anand to win.


That is on, i can't c and p from 888
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« Reply #113759 on: February 14, 2016, 11:26:29 AM »


The 13/1 is with Three Fat Ladies (888), which I understand we have. Recommend £20 on Vishy Anand to win.


That is on, i can't c and p from 888

Lovely.

https://www.fide.com/component/content/article/1-fide-news/9179-2016-fide-world-chess-candidates-tournament.html

Starts in Moscow on 10 March. It will finish twenty days later.
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