Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

i think i read that Emotionless had a rececourse gallop at Newmarket post craven and did a good time?

2016 2000 guineas   emotionless   7/1   50
1000 guineas   lumiere   10/1   50

[TightEnd]

Wigan and Burton bets

league one    wigan   8/1   50
League One handicap   wigan +2   18/1   20
league one    wigan   8/1   100   £50 e/w 1/5 1,2,3
league one    wigan   6/1   50   £25 e/w 1/5 1,2,3
league one    burton   4/5   100      
league one   burton   4/5   200      
league one wigan   9/2   100   £50 e/w 1/3 1,2
league one top goalscorer   grigg   11/2   50 £25 e/w 1/3 1,2
league one and national league   wigan and grimsby   22.81-1   50   £25 e/w double 1/4 1,2,3

(grimsby are 4th with a game in hand)

tikay is a wigan fan


Peterborough bets

league one top six finish   peterborough   9/2   88
league one top six finish   peterborough   4/1   12
Top 6 Finish 2015/16   lay Peterborough   2.28   108   £85 lay
peterborough league one finishing position   buy at 5   5   100   £20 a point at 5

Chesterfield bets

league one relegation   chesterfield   8/1   50
league one relegation   chesterfield   7/1   50
league one relegation   chesterfield   3.25   225   £100 LAY
bury v chesterfield season match bet   bury   8/11   144   £110 via chompy

a big month ahead.....

[Chompy]

Emotionless didn't impress everyone in his racecourse gallop but the vibes are much better than when he drifted like a barge and blew out against Air Force last backend. Somebody obviously knew something wasn't right that day. Classic prospects don't drift like that for no reason.

We only have Poshies to finish in the top six (edit: apart from the spread bet) and a cover bet on them not to finish in the top six. The cover is about to bink.

[Chompy]

We also have another £200 on Burton at 4-5 as a cover bet.

At the moment I'm inclined to think Wigan are under-priced at 1-6. Their goal difference is worth another point, but they go to Burton on Tuesday.

If Burton win, Walsall see off Swindon (4-7 shot) and then win their game in hand we have a three-way tie on 80pts.

We'll have one last cover bet here, £30 on Walsall at 14-1 with 888.

It can't be a proper  without Walsall being involved.

[TightEnd]

We also have another £200 on Burton at 4-5 as a cover bet.

At the moment I'm inclined to think Wigan are under-priced at 1-6. Their goal difference is worth another point, but they go to Burton on Tuesday.

If Burton win, Walsall see off Swindon (4-7 shot) and then win their game in hand we have a three-way tie on 80pts.

We'll have one last cover bet here, £30 on Walsall at 14-1 with 888.

It can't be a proper  without Walsall being involved.

this is on via a third party.

£30 at 14-1 esochomp fc.

[Eso Kral]

We also have another £200 on Burton at 4-5 as a cover bet.

At the moment I'm inclined to think Wigan are under-priced at 1-6. Their goal difference is worth another point, but they go to Burton on Tuesday.

If Burton win, Walsall see off Swindon (4-7 shot) and then win their game in hand we have a three-way tie on 80pts.

We'll have one last cover bet here, £30 on Walsall at 14-1 with 888.

It can't be a proper  without Walsall being involved.

😉

[hector62]

Morning Tighty.

I think we should oppose Nadal in the final of the Monaco tennis today. I don't think his performances have been as impressive as those of Monfils. On paper beating Murray and Wawrinka looks good, but Murray has looked uninterested since his baby, and Wawrinka is an enigma. Monfils is a really frustrating player, he has all the shots and athleticism but sometimes he doesn't get going until the match is beyond him. But he is one of the very best players to watch when he is on song. Playing in a final, in his home country against a player with some question marks, and getting 3-1 looks good to me.

Suggest £ 15 Monfils @ 31/10 if we have 888 or 3-1 with Ladbrokes, hills or Victor.

[LeKnave]

You'd find a way to back tails @ 10/11 if you'd managed to grab some heads @ 6/4 Chompy.

[TightEnd]

Morning Tighty.

I think we should oppose Nadal in the final of the Monaco tennis today. I don't think his performances have been as impressive as those of Monfils. On paper beating Murray and Wawrinka looks good, but Murray has looked uninterested since his baby, and Wawrinka is an enigma. Monfils is a really frustrating player, he has all the shots and athleticism but sometimes he doesn't get going until the match is beyond him. But he is one of the very best players to watch when he is on song. Playing in a final, in his home country against a player with some question marks, and getting 3-1 looks good to me.

Suggest £ 15 Monfils @ 31/10 if we have 888 or 3-1 with Ladbrokes, hills or Victor.

Gael Monfils Gael Monfils v Rafael Nadal Winner
3/1
Total Stake: £15.00
Potential Returns: £60.00

[KarmaDope]

With Sunderland looking the most likely of the three teams to stay up, is it worth laying back our £200 at 1.8 on Betfair?

[Tonji]

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/one-day-classics/amstel-gold-race/winner

Koral & Spbet look to be slow to adjust to Petr Vakoc win today ahead of the race Sunday. I'd say 20-25/1 would be a fair price, young racer, but not fully tested over 220 km. But a real strong talent that should be in the final mix, but team orders could mean he plays a backup role. £5.00 EW if you can.

Click to see full-size image.

First hour of the race done. Team have confirmed Vakoc is co-leader. We have 66/1 EW, he went off 16/1. Just another 200 km to go....

[TightEnd]

With Sunderland looking the most likely of the three teams to stay up, is it worth laying back our £200 at 1.8 on Betfair?

Recommendation with the bet proposer really, arbboy.

all other views of course welcome

[Chompy]

You'd find a way to back tails @ 10/11 if you'd managed to grab some heads @ 6/4 Chompy.

Once a trader, always a trader.

[Simon Galloway]

Emotionless didn't impress everyone in his racecourse gallop but the vibes are much better than when he drifted like a barge and blew out against Air Force last backend. Somebody obviously knew something wasn't right that day. Classic prospects don't drift like that for no reason.

We only have Poshies to finish in the top six (edit: apart from the spread bet) and a cover bet on them not to finish in the top six. The cover is about to bink.

The report I remember reading said chipped bone in knee.  No way does it drift on the back of anyone knowing that pre race, it would never be allowed to run.  10/1 now, I took some also before the Dewhurst, hopefully that will still be a decent price on the day.


GODOLPHIN'S latest quest for Classic success went up a gear on Wednesday when their Qipco 2,000 Guineas hope Emotionless took part in a crucial pre-race workout on the Rowley Mile.

RELATED LINKS
2000 Guineas card
The son of Shamardal, partnered by William Buick, was unchanged at 10-1 with most bookmakers for Classic glory on April 30 after mastering stablemates Bow And Arrow (James Doyle) and Golden Heritage (Martin Lane) at the close of a seven furlong exercise.

Winner of the Group 2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last September, Emotionless was making his first public appearance since his flop in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes where he was found to have chipped a bone in a knee.

Emotionless is now fully recovered and did not appear to be blowing hard after the gallop in which Buick pushed him out to beat the 95-rated Bow and Arrow by a couple of lengths.

Trainer Charlie Appleby said: "I was very pleased with that especially his demeanour beforehand as he got a bit warm when we worked him here before the Dewhurst last year but he is growing up. He's done a nice building piece of work on ground that the boys said was a bit tacky.

"What we liked here today is that we got what we wanted out of it," added the trainer. "We weren't here to win by 20 lengths and we came up here for the horse's benefit rather than anything else. William was delighted with how he picked up and that will have put him spot on for a crack at the Guineas."

[arbboy]

With Sunderland looking the most likely of the three teams to stay up, is it worth laying back our £200 at 1.8 on Betfair?

Recommendation with the bet proposer really, arbboy.

all other views of course welcome

You'd find a way to back tails @ 10/11 if you'd managed to grab some heads @ 6/4.  Seems as good a way of describing it as any for me.  

It's all 2012 all over again and the basics of successful punting we have been through a zillion times before which were ironed out in the first few months of fred.  Won't get angry this time about going over the old ground again and again.  It does get a bit tedious listening to people suggesting to make the same mistakes time and time again but i will try and button my lip.

If someone else wants to back Sunderland at 5/4 to stay up for fred go for it.  Makes no difference what happened last summer when i put up Sunderland at 9/4 to go down.  If people think there are a bet stick it up.  Pretty sure without my £200 sitting on the spreadsheet there wouldn't be any discussion at all of backing Sunderland at 5/4 to stay up this morning.  Nobody thinks 5/4 is a wrong price and gives us any edge to invest in yet people think we should be having our biggest bet of the month on this?

We have 2% of bankroll on Sunderland to go down and 2% of our bankroll on Wigan to win the league.  These are not 'whopping' sized bets.  They are totally normal sized bets for our bankroll.   There is no need to 'loltrade/give it away' whatever you want to call it.  2% of bankroll bets are just standard strong bets where we have a decent edge.  If everyone else bet within proper bankroll amounts then these bets wouldn't be causing such huge 'pressure' on the monthly results to even need to be discussing 'loltrading' them away.

I have said all this before though and is the reason why i don't put up bets anymore because, by principle, i won't bet 'wrong' amounts but it just adds too much pressure to everyone's obsession with making a profit each and every month.  We shouldn't be making a profit every month based on our tiny sample of bets every month if we are staking properly.  There should be months where we are doing our nuts.  We only historically have a 5% edge.  I doubt the edge is that big any more given the more recreational basis (most of the original fred pro's don't post now before someone posts that i think everyone left are lolmugs) of the vast majority of the betting turnover compared to the early days and the fact it is harder getting on at the best price/reduction in number of accounts we have available.