Tips for Tikay

[TheDazzler]

Get your Lederhosen's on, a couple of Austrian bet reconsiderations here. I can't get on coral as i'm overseas, so if somebody could stick a £5 ew on my second tip you'd be a hero, and i can send the money over via bank transfer.


Just had a brief look at some of the Euro 2016 markets. One that i liked the look of was Marc Janko top goalscorer @ 66/1 with multiple bookies

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/top-goalscorer

The golden boot market is always relatively open, as normally around 4-5 goals takes it, with Torres winning it last time with just 3. Janko has a very good strike rate this season (16 in 20 for Basel) and was Austria's top scorer in qualifying, scoring 7 in 9 games played, which is the tied 6th top scorer in qualifying. Austria also find themselves in one of the nicer groups, playing Iceland, Hungary and Portugal, giving them a chance to score plenty of goals. Having watched them a few times they look a decent side, and perhaps are even an outside bet at 40/1 for the tournament.

I'd suggest £10 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places). Looks cracking value imo.



I also like Marko Arnautovic top scorer @ 200/1 with choral, most firms are sticking up 66/1 and 100/1 but if they want to put up 200s i'm not complaining! Although i'm slightly biased he's had a great season for club and country- top goalscorer for stoke this season with 11 goals and 3 for austria in their qualifying. On his day he has the ability to put 2-3 past anyone, and is one of the underrated players in the PL.

Suggest £5 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)

thoughts welcome please?

what are our ideas for outsiders at a price in the outright?

Austria and Poland anywhere from 40-66/1 come up most frequently when i read stuff...

I doubt anyone will argue with 66/1 + 200/1 (imagine if you did and they won!*) shots and Austria are definitely lively outsiders. I've backed Poland and Austria for pennies for an interest.
I don't think 3 or 4 goals will win top goalscorer though. I'd imagine with the expanded format and hence some weaker teams, there will be some thrashings handed out.

* When Greece won the Euros a girl I worked with at the time loved Greece and she wanted to back them. I patiently explained to her for about an hour how them winning was absolutely impossible. Unfortunately she took my expert advice

[DropTheHammer]

Yeah but Greece winning was so unlikely, you'd never get anything like that happening again.



 

[Teacake]

I like Janko at 66/1 as well, certain starter in a nice group although their opponents aren't the worst defensively.
I backed Austria and Portugal  months ago for an outside interest.

[sonour]

if you want a 4/5 shot that is really much shorter and don't mind waiting a while

andy burnham was due to announce his candidacy for manchester mayor tomorrow, but the twitter handle @andy4manchester emerged today so its out

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/greater-manchester-mayoral-election/next-mayor

Manchester a big Labour city, Burnham a big beast politican whose stock is riding high post His role in progressing the recent Hillsborough inquiry and he has no chance of a) supplanting corbyn or b) enjoying being in his shad cab

the interim incumbent former MP tony lloyd doesn't want it permanently

sadiq khan went off 1/3 in london in a far closer race than manchester will be

That didn't last long.  Surely 1/2 is still value?

Now evens. What changed ?

[arbboy]

if you want a 4/5 shot that is really much shorter and don't mind waiting a while

andy burnham was due to announce his candidacy for manchester mayor tomorrow, but the twitter handle @andy4manchester emerged today so its out

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/greater-manchester-mayoral-election/next-mayor

Manchester a big Labour city, Burnham a big beast politican whose stock is riding high post His role in progressing the recent Hillsborough inquiry and he has no chance of a) supplanting corbyn or b) enjoying being in his shad cab

the interim incumbent former MP tony lloyd doesn't want it permanently

sadiq khan went off 1/3 in london in a far closer race than manchester will be

That didn't last long.  Surely 1/2 is still value?

Now evens. What changed ?

lolbrokes lol trader might have laid a 1500/500 the 2nd in!  Need to balance the book.  never go skint laying a short one.

[TightEnd]

No bets completed yesterday

RCB thrashed Kings XI, 211 off 15 overs no less.

So Kings XI are bottom with one game to play, against the Supergiants. They need to win to avoid finishing bottom or else we have a winner



Warwickshire went top of SSCC1 yesterday, beating Notts at Trent Bridge



despite a brilliant counter by Samit Patel

[TightEnd]

Get your Lederhosen's on, a couple of Austrian bet reconsiderations here. I can't get on coral as i'm overseas, so if somebody could stick a £5 ew on my second tip you'd be a hero, and i can send the money over via bank transfer.


Just had a brief look at some of the Euro 2016 markets. One that i liked the look of was Marc Janko top goalscorer @ 66/1 with multiple bookies

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/top-goalscorer

The golden boot market is always relatively open, as normally around 4-5 goals takes it, with Torres winning it last time with just 3. Janko has a very good strike rate this season (16 in 20 for Basel) and was Austria's top scorer in qualifying, scoring 7 in 9 games played, which is the tied 6th top scorer in qualifying. Austria also find themselves in one of the nicer groups, playing Iceland, Hungary and Portugal, giving them a chance to score plenty of goals. Having watched them a few times they look a decent side, and perhaps are even an outside bet at 40/1 for the tournament.

I'd suggest £10 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places). Looks cracking value imo.



I also like Marko Arnautovic top scorer @ 200/1 with choral, most firms are sticking up 66/1 and 100/1 but if they want to put up 200s i'm not complaining! Although i'm slightly biased he's had a great season for club and country- top goalscorer for stoke this season with 11 goals and 3 for austria in their qualifying. On his day he has the ability to put 2-3 past anyone, and is one of the underrated players in the PL.

Suggest £5 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)

Marc Janko Euro 2016 Top Goalscorer
66/1 Each Way (4 Places at 1/4 Odds)
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £845.00

Marko Arnautovic Euro 2016 Top Goalscorer
200/1 Each Way (4 Places at 1/4 Odds)
Total Stake: £5.00 (limited)
Potential Returns: £630.00

[bergeroo]

An issue with the Austrians is that Alaba looks likely to be on Pens, so that robs them of a possible chance of one or two easy goals.

For a longer EW shout in the top scorer market, with the extra match in the KO rounds, I think I'd rather take an AM, winger or a reserve striker from a top team who might get sub/rotation minutes than someone from  an outsider team, as my guy is likely to get 2-3 more games.

Off the top of my head.
Pogba, Conan, Payet, Schurle, Pedro, all these kinds of guys would be people I'm looking at.

All depends on who we think is in the starting XI of course and who we think is on pens.

For the groups, as Tighty pointed out in the other thread, the draw is really lopsided. I've been looking at the teams that are most likely to finish second and then face another second place team.
These are
A. Switzerland, Romania
B. More open... Russia/Wales?
C Poland, Ukraine
F Austria

The A and C teams will play each other and then also likely be in the opposite side of the draw to Germany and France, so these are the ones I looked at.
Current odds
Switzerland 66/1 - some good players, form mixed, didn't trouble England much.
Poland 50/1 (in from 66s)
Ukraine 100/1 (in from 125s) - Good core of players from Shakhtar and Kiev
Romania 250/1 - Solid but I wonder where the goals are coming from?

Austria 40/1  have been mentioned and it is interesting that the second placed team in their group is likely to get a far easier second round tie than the winners.

For fred I'd suggest small each way bets on Austria and Poland.

I'd also be interested in what people thought of Ukraine's chances?

I had a bit on Poland ew at 66/1 and we must of course remember that they have already beat Germany anyway in qualifying and they have one of the top three strikers in the competition (maybe the number one out and out frontman?). I'll be betting a bit more at 50s after Lewandowski negotiates the German Cup Final safely on Saturday.

To add: Still think Muller is the man to beat in the top scorer market. Tempted even at 7/1.

[TightEnd]

think Griezemann is an absolutely cracking e/w bet top scorer at 11-1 given France's draw, group, team and the service he is likeyl to get etc

If i could be sure that Morata was up front for Spain and they would play not a false nine in some games then 25-1 appeals too. one to watch in the warm ups

[bergeroo]

He seems pretty nailed on now Benzema is out of the picture and Giroud somewhat unconvincing imo and France have almost the easiest possible draw to get to the Semis, on the downside he might be rotated out for the last group game if they have the group sown up.

 At the top, I'd much rather take him or Muller than Lewandowski, Ronaldo or Lukaku who all may only get four matches instead of a quite probably six or seven for the French.

Would certainly endorse a fred bet on Griezemann.

think Griezemann is an absolutely cracking e/w bet top scorer at 11-1 given France's draw, group, team and the service he is likeyl to get etc

If i could be sure that Morata was up front for Spain and they would play not a false nine in some games then 25-1 appeals too. one to watch in the warm ups

[tikay]

think Griezemann is an absolutely cracking e/w bet top scorer at 11-1 given France's draw, group, team and the service he is likeyl to get etc

If i could be sure that Morata was up front for Spain and they would play not a false nine in some games then 25-1 appeals too. one to watch in the warm ups

Are we on this?

[bergeroo]

Man, this thread has really made me look forward to the Euros now!

[TightEnd]

Man, this thread has really made me look forward to the Euros now!

we have only just started


Kane is 5/2 top england scorer, going to be playing the lone striker. downside Rooney on pens. downside good judges (and tikay) like england no goals in the competition

Reus is 8/1 top german scorer, alternative at a price to muller

Morata top spanish 11/4

bale 5/4 welsh. 1 or 2 goals might win it? who else can win it in what should be a cagey group?

griezman 5/2 top french

long 4/1 top ROI. 2 goals certainly can win that

etc etc

just for discussion, been going through all the markets this week


the to qualify markets are interesting

teams at odds against where 3 of 4 should make it through the groups...

only 8 teams are eliminated before the knockout stages



trawl through http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016

many hours of fun to be had

[TightEnd]

think Griezemann is an absolutely cracking e/w bet top scorer at 11-1 given France's draw, group, team and the service he is likeyl to get etc

If i could be sure that Morata was up front for Spain and they would play not a false nine in some games then 25-1 appeals too. one to watch in the warm ups

Are we on this?

no, as i have only just mentioned it

happy for someone to pick holes in it

maybe wait until after the UCL Final


played left hand side of a front three for france previously, going to be through the middle this time ex benzema and ahead of the carthorse?

32 in 53 for atleti this year, 25 in 52 last time

team should play 6 matches in the euros as a strong home side
 

[McGlashan]

David Haye fights on Saturday night against 28-0 Swiss based Arnold Gjergjaj. Easy to overlook for his lack of size, Haye is a world world class heavyweight living in the shadows of Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua. His explosive power, shot selection, and finishing skills are top notch. He was  unfortunate to run into Wladimir Klitschko, a safety first giant who had perfected the art of beating a smaller man. Gjergjaj is no Klitschko. Gjergjaj is like Audley Harrison but without the awkward southpaw stance. Or the punching power. Or the amateur pedigree. Or the professional pedigree. Or the hand speed. Or the foot speed. Or the technique. Or the strength. Basically, he is tall. Being tall is a good thing, unless you have no defensive skills, in which case it a bad thing as you become a bigger target. Gjergjaj has no defensive skills. Once he gets backed into a corner or against the ropes he's in serious trouble.

The over/under line is 3.5 rounds, that's 3 and a half rounds, the 1 minute 30 second mark of round 4, 10 minutes 30 seconds of fight time. The infamous Haye-Harrison bout had 7 minutes 53 seconds of action, but Gjergjaj is more on the level of Haye's last foe Mark De Mori who lasted 2 minutes 11 seconds. Such is the level of this mismatch it's hard to even put a price on Mr Ger-jai surviving 3 and a half rounds.

Rec £525 @4/7 on under 3.5 rounds with Billy Hill, V C, or unibet http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/david-haye-v-arnold-gjergjaj/total-rounds And take £75 on round 1 @ 7/2 http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/david-haye-v-arnold-gjergjaj/round-betting Ladbrokes differ with their round group betting. They go within 3 rounds (end of the third) which offer similar value at 8/11, laying £343.75 to a 10% account.