Tips for Tikay

[JohnCharver]

It didn't win so I made the right decision cashing out

The ev of the win bet is unaffected I believe (otbe). But the e/w part is decimated.

Bet placed at 7/1, was 4/1 at the off. The place was evens on betfair for 3 which I would now be getting for 2 so think cash out is correct.

If you have backed a horse at 7/1 and it is still 7/1 on betfair, I'd be cashing out.  If it was 4/1 on betfair, I'd say that cashing out would likely be bad.

How big was the rule4 for Arod?

25p I think, there was already a 10p on earlier withdrawals (bet placed at 12.15) muob I think

[doubleup]

It didn't win so I made the right decision cashing out

The ev of the win bet is unaffected I believe (otbe). But the e/w part is decimated.

Bet placed at 7/1, was 4/1 at the off. The place was evens on betfair for 3 which I would now be getting for 2 so think cash out is correct.

If you have backed a horse at 7/1 and it is still 7/1 on betfair, I'd be cashing out.  If it was 4/1 on betfair, I'd say that cashing out would likely be bad.

There would have been a rule 4 on the 7-1.

Presumably the horse was sovereign debt?

Seems like it was about 13/8 on betfair 2 place market. and 5.4 betfair sp.   Your 7-1 becomes 4.9-1 on a 30p rule 4

So your bet works out at about negative ev of 3% if you let it run.


edit as per above posts on 25p deduction bet would be ev+

edit again as per post below on 35p deduction bet would be ev- 8%

[Ledders]

It was 35%.

I need to spend more time in the lab but these are my workings:

My 7/1 is now 4.55/1. BFSP was 4.43/1.

And 3 places was 1.92, I can't see the price for 2 places because I'm a betfair fish.

4.55/4 = 1.13/1. So the 2 places would need to be 6/5 which I don't think it ever is.

Edit: Plugging the 13/8 into the calculator gives a return of 1.84 from 2 units so 8% loss. Which was the same as my cashout in the end.

[JohnCharver]

Minding did amazing to win that. Some guts not to just give up never mind win.

[Marky147]

Minding did amazing to win that. Some guts not to just give up never mind win.

Unreal performance.

[Doobs]

Minding did amazing to win that. Some guts not to just give up never mind win.

Unreal performance.

Some performance by Architecture too.  Rest nowhere.

[JohnCharver]

Minding did amazing to win that. Some guts not to just give up never mind win.

Unreal performance.

Some performance by Architecture too.  Rest nowhere.

Yeah listen must be nice to be able to send out the 3rd favourite as a pace wrecker. Seemed as tho that was the only thing somehow was there for, bit rank for bettors

[Doobs]

Minding did amazing to win that. Some guts not to just give up never mind win.

Unreal performance.

Some performance by Architecture too.  Rest nowhere.

Yeah listen must be nice to be able to send out the 3rd favourite as a pace wrecker. Seemed as tho that was the only thing somehow was there for, bit rank for bettors

Certainly didn't want it to lead, but Somehow was well beat for 3rd so strongly suspect the tactics didn't cost me anything.  First two must both be very decent fillies. 

[Doobs]

I don't think thread got on in the end, but Murray is in the final in France.  I did an Eso chomp with my position today.

[Chompy]

I don't think thread got on in the end, but Murray is in the final in France.  I did an Eso chomp with my position today.

Never in doubt once McGovern recommended backing Wawrinka.

[TightEnd]

the derby looks wide open, 5/1 the field? i saw that sky were going 4 places, fwiw

with tikay in Vegas folding A2KK pre-flop in Seniors PLO8 tournaments because you can never be too careful....unfortunately i am only around first thing tomorrow too, other commitments

if you have any ideas for the racing tomorrow

or maybe the copa america?

or anything else in the next 24 hours (tennis?)

i will need them before 10am tomorrow please

[kukushkin88]

Minding did amazing to win that. Some guts not to just give up never mind win.

Unreal performance.

Some performance by Architecture too.  Rest nowhere.

Yeah listen must be nice to be able to send out the 3rd favourite as a pace wrecker. Seemed as tho that was the only thing somehow was there for, bit rank for bettors

Certainly didn't want it to lead, but Somehow was well beat for 3rd so strongly suspect the tactics didn't cost me anything.  First two must both be very decent fillies. 

It seems odd that the two clearly bred for shorter went miles clear. Any chance they went way too slow?

[arbboy]

Hills going ew 1/5 1,2,3 in the Derby which is effectively a 16 runner hcap!  Comical how badly they have had their fingers burnt recently with competing on price in terrible high profile races to do so.  They have now gone to the other end of the scale on a race where they could push the boat out a bit.  Totally clueless marketing departments getting involved with trading decisions as usual!

[Tal]

the derby looks wide open, 5/1 the field? i saw that sky were going 4 places, fwiw

with tikay in Vegas folding A2KK pre-flop in Seniors PLO8 tournaments because you can never be too careful....unfortunately i am only around first thing tomorrow too, other commitments

if you have any ideas for the racing tomorrow

or maybe the copa america?

or anything else in the next 24 hours (tennis?)

i will need them before 10am tomorrow please

Sky is 5 places 1/5 odds.

Hills going ew 1/5 1,2,3 in the Derby which is effectively a 16 runner hcap!  Comical how badly they have had their fingers burnt recently with competing on price in terrible high profile races to do so.  They have now gone to the other end of the scale on a race where they could push the boat out a bit.  Totally clueless marketing departments getting involved with trading decisions as usual!

Just had an email from Hills to say they're going 5 places, too, and 6/1 Wings. Fifth odds again.

[Doobs]

the derby looks wide open, 5/1 the field? i saw that sky were going 4 places, fwiw

with tikay in Vegas folding A2KK pre-flop in Seniors PLO8 tournaments because you can never be too careful....unfortunately i am only around first thing tomorrow too, other commitments

if you have any ideas for the racing tomorrow

or maybe the copa america?

or anything else in the next 24 hours (tennis?)

i will need them before 10am tomorrow please

Sky is 5 places 1/5 odds.

Hills going ew 1/5 1,2,3 in the Derby which is effectively a 16 runner hcap!  Comical how badly they have had their fingers burnt recently with competing on price in terrible high profile races to do so.  They have now gone to the other end of the scale on a race where they could push the boat out a bit.  Totally clueless marketing departments getting involved with trading decisions as usual!

Just had an email from Hills to say they're going 5 places, too, and 6/1 Wings. Fifth odds again.

See no reason why you wouldn't bet 6/1 Wings of Desire when available.   It looks the most solid horse in the race. Looking to back the French horse too, but oddschecker is giving me a headache (it is anything between 3 and 5 places, quarter or fifth the odds, 6-1 to 8-1 and none of the combinations look that desirable or available to me).  Will have a look later.