Tips for Tikay

[baldock92]

Don't know much about these teams so any opinions would be apprecaited.

I see Port Vale, 12th in league 1, are at home to Northampton, 17th in league 1. Northampton have lost 4 league games in a row, and have only won twice away from home all season. Port vale aren't in great form either, in the last 4 they've won 1, drawn 2 and lost one, but they've got a pretty good track record this season at Vale Park- 6 wins, 3 draws and just the one loss.

The bookies have Vale down as the underdogs. I'm not sure whether there are any key injuries or other factors which have influenced the price. If not, I believe they hold good value today.

11/5 is available with multiple firms, even as high as 9/4 with Marathon. If nobody can give any reasoning as why to avoid Vale I reckon a £50 bet should do.

[RickBFA]

Don't know much about these teams so any opinions would be apprecaited.

I see Port Vale, 12th in league 1, are at home to Northampton, 17th in league 1. Northampton have lost 4 league games in a row, and have only won twice away from home all season. Port vale aren't in great form either, in the last 4 they've won 1, drawn 2 and lost one, but they've got a pretty good track record this season at Vale Park- 6 wins, 3 draws and just the one loss.

The bookies have Vale down as the underdogs. I'm not sure whether there are any key injuries or other factors which have influenced the price. If not, I believe they hold good value today.

11/5 is available with multiple firms, even as high as 9/4 with Marathon. If nobody can give any reasoning as why to avoid Vale I reckon a £50 bet should do.

I backed Port Vale last night at 11/5, looks a bit of value to me.

[tikay]

I believe Tighty may be MIA today, so give me a bit of time & I'll try & see if I can deal with some of these recommends.

[tikay]

Depending on the weather and no horses being withdrawn I think I have an interesting proposition for tomorrow's Caspian Caviar Gold Cup.

Rain is forecast to fall upon Cheltenham in increasing intensity from ~11am and there are sixteen runners currently declared.

20/1 would be a tremendous EW bet should the rain arrive and all of the runners stand their ground for a horse currently running off a mark of 149(a stone+ below it's highest)which narrowly missed getting 2nd place in the QM 'Chase two years ago on similar good ground as today's and has already had a pipe-opener. It's best runs have been on soft so rain would be a boon but it still has a decent chance on good.

It is speculative though which is reflected in the price as there must be a chance that it "bounces", it was off the track for almost two years until that run last month.

Recommend £10EW 1/4 1-2-3-4 Module @20/1 in the 1.50pm Cheltenham tomorrow.

As of now, there are still 16 runners.

The weather in Cheltenham is "raining", see.....


http://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/cheltenham/gl53-7/weather-forecast/328267


And in better news, Methuselah suggested 20/1 was a good price, but we can get 25/1 (qtr odds, 4 places) with Wm Hill.

I have reserved a bit of that for myself, but before Fred confirms.......

[tikay]

Lol
Doobs put it up a few days ago
Just wondering it makes sense to do both
Serious question

Definitely if the place terms permit, a good bet is a good bet.

The presence of my horse makes no difference.

I think your problem is that you either get the price or the certain place terms.   If you leave it until you see if it rains and 16 stand their ground then 20/1 will be gone.  If you bet it now, you are going to get stuck with 3 places more frequently than is comfortable.

I'd be tempted to just back it win only to make sure I got the 20/1 without the downside of frequently getting lumbered with 3 places.  That is what I just did anyway

What would your view be now, David?

As of 10.30, still 16 runners, it is raining, with more occasional rain forecast, & we can get 25/1?

[tikay]

In a bit of a rush and hopefully will get back on later before the kick off but does anyone else see value in Palace top 10 at 6/1 (suggest 50 quid with batfair sportsbook) and Sunderland top 10 at 33/1 (sky and other places for a tenner).

Palace are 5th joint top goalscorers, seemingly sorting out lax defensive issues, are a fumbling sort of team going forward but still scoring goals. Still have Townsend off form which can explode well soon. Pardew has enjoyed peak and trough runs in his career possible a great spell ahead.

Also pressure off against Hull considering if they lose this he will be under pressure but still be ok after the Man United and Chelsea games as he wasn't expected to win those. But at home against the big sides anyway we have been a good adversary. It can be argued that mostly on our losses generally this season we have been in them and in at least some not had the rub of the green.

Sunderlands form for that suggestion would say they give the top 10 a decent shot and it probably shouldn't be 33/1, I dunno? Moyes could be getting the respect back from players he had at Everton and could have something going there to make a run at casual mid table safety and run the top ten close? At least close enough to make 33/1 value? I see them against Swansea today too and I have not been impressed by their defence and think they could secure a win to put this bet into a better place quickly.

I would think 3/1 is more like the right price for Palace and something in the teens for Sunderland.

But I'm a punter. I don't claim to be any good at this lark and the fact that I can still get on with sky is probably saying something 😄

Think Ant & Peace is just throwing that out there for views.

Anyone got a view on either or both?

[Karabiner]

Depending on the weather and no horses being withdrawn I think I have an interesting proposition for tomorrow's Caspian Caviar Gold Cup.

Rain is forecast to fall upon Cheltenham in increasing intensity from ~11am and there are sixteen runners currently declared.

20/1 would be a tremendous EW bet should the rain arrive and all of the runners stand their ground for a horse currently running off a mark of 149(a stone+ below it's highest)which narrowly missed getting 2nd place in the QM 'Chase two years ago on similar good ground as today's and has already had a pipe-opener. It's best runs have been on soft so rain would be a boon but it still has a decent chance on good.

It is speculative though which is reflected in the price as there must be a chance that it "bounces", it was off the track for almost two years until that run last month.

Recommend £10EW 1/4 1-2-3-4 Module @20/1 in the 1.50pm Cheltenham tomorrow.

As of now, there are still 16 runners.

The weather in Cheltenham is "raining", see.....


http://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/cheltenham/gl53-7/weather-forecast/328267


And in better news, Methuselah suggested 20/1 was a good price, but we can get 25/1 (qtr odds, 4 places) with Wm Hill.

I have reserved a bit of that for myself, but before Fred confirms.......

I'm easy about either win only or EW.

I've done both, win on betty and EW @25/1 with ladyboys.

[tikay]

Don't know much about these teams so any opinions would be apprecaited.

I see Port Vale, 12th in league 1, are at home to Northampton, 17th in league 1. Northampton have lost 4 league games in a row, and have only won twice away from home all season. Port vale aren't in great form either, in the last 4 they've won 1, drawn 2 and lost one, but they've got a pretty good track record this season at Vale Park- 6 wins, 3 draws and just the one loss.

The bookies have Vale down as the underdogs. I'm not sure whether there are any key injuries or other factors which have influenced the price. If not, I believe they hold good value today.

11/5 is available with multiple firms, even as high as 9/4 with Marathon. If nobody can give any reasoning as why to avoid Vale I reckon a £50 bet should do.

Looks OK to my naïve eye, & Rick agrees, so we are on, thank you.

£50 @ 11/5, Port Vale, with Wm Hill.

BET PLACED


 

[tikay]

Depending on the weather and no horses being withdrawn I think I have an interesting proposition for tomorrow's Caspian Caviar Gold Cup.

Rain is forecast to fall upon Cheltenham in increasing intensity from ~11am and there are sixteen runners currently declared.

20/1 would be a tremendous EW bet should the rain arrive and all of the runners stand their ground for a horse currently running off a mark of 149(a stone+ below it's highest)which narrowly missed getting 2nd place in the QM 'Chase two years ago on similar good ground as today's and has already had a pipe-opener. It's best runs have been on soft so rain would be a boon but it still has a decent chance on good.

It is speculative though which is reflected in the price as there must be a chance that it "bounces", it was off the track for almost two years until that run last month.

Recommend £10EW 1/4 1-2-3-4 Module @20/1 in the 1.50pm Cheltenham tomorrow.

As of now, there are still 16 runners.

The weather in Cheltenham is "raining", see.....


http://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/cheltenham/gl53-7/weather-forecast/328267


And in better news, Methuselah suggested 20/1 was a good price, but we can get 25/1 (qtr odds, 4 places) with Wm Hill.

I have reserved a bit of that for myself, but before Fred confirms.......

I'm easy about either win only or EW.

I've done both, win on betty and EW @25/1 with ladyboys.

Me too, I've had £10 EW & £10 win on my own account, & Fred can have either, though it needs to be confirmed before the price changes.

We'll definitely do one or the other, probably the EW, but let's see what David says.

[tikay]

Think I need to make a decision on Methuselah's suggestion, so we are going to go with £10 EW @ 25/1, MODULE, Wm Hill, qtr odds, 4 places.

BET PLACED

[Tal]

Semi final week in Strictly. There are two certs in the final and two who are in a scrap. Louise and Danny will be competing next week. Only one of Ore and Claudia will join them.

The bookies price the next elimination up thusly:

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/strictly-come-dancing/next-elimination

On public vote and judges' favouritism to-date, I'd say this is priced correctly.

However, there's a factor I don't think the bookies have appreciated. The couples do two dances tonight and, when it comes to the dance off, they do their highest scoring number of the two.

What this means is you're looking for who does the best performance out of the four dances. They should then win in the dance off.

Of the four dances (Ore has Argentine Tango and Quickstep; Claudia also has Quickstep but with a Rumba), the best by some distance in the footage is Ore's Argentine Tango. He looks very strong and I'd back the coaching ability of Joanne over AJ.

I would flip the 5/4 and 4/5 personally and make Claudia favourite to go.

There is also a chance that the public vote to keep Ore in, on the basis that they want to see his Jive again in the final. I wouldn't be surprised to see that Jive mentioned during the live broadcast tonight. If that happens, Claudia won't beat Louise or Danny's best dance (Tango and American Smooth respectively would be my guess there)

Recommend £40 on Claudia to be the next elimination at 5/4.

[tikay]

Going back to that race at Cheltenham, I pass this on FIO, I'm not speaking for or against it, & I don't really want to be told how bad it is or is not, but.....

For those with functioning Sky Bet accounts, they are offering 5 places but one fifth odds, but generally they are offering poorer prices. Obviously.

This was something they are trialling, & when they did it last week, turnover (stakes & uniques) absolutely rocketed.

This is FIO, & I'm neither advocating it or deriding it.

[Doobs]

Think I need to make a decision on Methuselah's suggestion, so we are going to go with £10 EW @ 25/1, MODULE, Wm Hill, qtr odds, 4 places.

BET PLACED

I am not sure I'd put a bet on so early in a 16 runner race on changing ground.   But we only have to last 2 hours now.  Proper sweat.  25/1 obv a big win vs last njght.

Bouvreuil is back out close to 9/1 on betfair.  At least we are guaranteed the 4 places on that one.

[Doobs]

Going back to that race at Cheltenham, I pass this on FIO, I'm not speaking for or against it, & I don't really want to be told how bad it is or is not, but.....

For those with functioning Sky Bet accounts, they are offering 5 places but one fifth odds, but generally they are offering poorer prices. Obviously.

This was something they are trialling, & when they did it last week, turnover (stakes & uniques) absolutely rocketed.

This is FIO, & I'm neither advocating it or deriding it.

I didn't spot the fifth odds at first.  I dare say most won't.  Cash out is taking advantage of people's bad maths ability, but think this is simply conning people.  I will smile a little if we lose 3 horses.

[tikay]

Semi final week in Strictly. There are two certs in the final and two who are in a scrap. Louise and Danny will be competing next week. Only one of Ore and Claudia will join them.

The bookies price the next elimination up thusly:

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/strictly-come-dancing/next-elimination

On public vote and judges' favouritism to-date, I'd say this is priced correctly.

However, there's a factor I don't think the bookies have appreciated. The couples do two dances tonight and, when it comes to the dance off, they do their highest scoring number of the two.

What this means is you're looking for who does the best performance out of the four dances. They should then win in the dance off.

Of the four dances (Ore has Argentine Tango and Quickstep; Claudia also has Quickstep but with a Rumba), the best by some distance in the footage is Ore's Argentine Tango. He looks very strong and I'd back the coaching ability of Joanne over AJ.

I would flip the 5/4 and 4/5 personally and make Claudia favourite to go.

There is also a chance that the public vote to keep Ore in, on the basis that they want to see his Jive again in the final. I wouldn't be surprised to see that Jive mentioned during the live broadcast tonight. If that happens, Claudia won't beat Louise or Danny's best dance (Tango and American Smooth respectively would be my guess there)

Recommend £40 on Claudia to be the next elimination at 5/4.

Thanks Tal.

Coral sent it to trader for review, rejected it first time, then accepted it 2nd time, so we are all aboard.

£40 @ 5/4, Claudia, Next Elimination, SCD, Coral.


BET PLACED