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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13329601 times)
nellberg
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« Reply #129000 on: July 13, 2017, 04:17:28 PM »

No Tour de France bets this year? Would hate to be on Porte at the prices (to tours Ive seen), know hes the form rider but hes always struck me as lacking the ability to get through the bad days and seems to fall off a cliff when he does (obviously these occasions have been impart due to his role requirements/not being solo first rider). Froome hasnt looked as good as previous years, any value about?

Aru for me. Every time Froome won TDF he won the Dauphine in the lead-up, didn't this year. Porte's grand tour record is vile. Quintana won the Giro, notiously tough to do the double. Aru will have Fulgsang as a quality domestique, has strong grand tour form and won the Italian national championships on Sunday. By all accounts his vanquished rivals were talking him up in the aftermath. Of the others, Contador might not be what he was, and doesn't have a super-strong team Bardet is interesting, but kind of picked up the pieces last year. I'd have Aru a fair way ahead of him in the pecking order then we're into super-domestiques who'll be riding in support of thier team leaders.

18/1 to win
11/2 w/o froome/porte
7/2 w/o big 3

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/winner?selectionName=fabio-aru

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/w-o-froome-and-porte

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/betting-without-big-3

Fabio Aru takes the yellow jersey today - Fred has another juicy live one.

Be interesting to see what happens now. Astana (aru's team) aren't set up to control the race now fulgsang (broken wrist) is a passenger and his other main domestique crashed  out yesterday. Team sky are clearly the strongest team, but froome really went pop at the top of the climb today.
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Weetabix
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« Reply #129001 on: July 13, 2017, 04:17:43 PM »

Always the us open. Nice fun bets for some of those involved.  Super impressive from Venus, they show so few nerves these two sisters as if they are hitting balls on the courts of Compton.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #129002 on: July 13, 2017, 04:19:33 PM »

No Tour de France bets this year? Would hate to be on Porte at the prices (to tours Ive seen), know hes the form rider but hes always struck me as lacking the ability to get through the bad days and seems to fall off a cliff when he does (obviously these occasions have been impart due to his role requirements/not being solo first rider). Froome hasnt looked as good as previous years, any value about?

Aru for me. Every time Froome won TDF he won the Dauphine in the lead-up, didn't this year. Porte's grand tour record is vile. Quintana won the Giro, notiously tough to do the double. Aru will have Fulgsang as a quality domestique, has strong grand tour form and won the Italian national championships on Sunday. By all accounts his vanquished rivals were talking him up in the aftermath. Of the others, Contador might not be what he was, and doesn't have a super-strong team Bardet is interesting, but kind of picked up the pieces last year. I'd have Aru a fair way ahead of him in the pecking order then we're into super-domestiques who'll be riding in support of thier team leaders.

18/1 to win
11/2 w/o froome/porte
7/2 w/o big 3

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/winner?selectionName=fabio-aru

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/w-o-froome-and-porte

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/betting-without-big-3

Fabio Aru takes the yellow jersey today - Fred has another juicy live one.

 Click to see full-size image.


plenty of people going to have a pop at breaks now froome has cracked

Bardet team stronger than Aru's?maybe he should be favourite?
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TightEnd
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« Reply #129003 on: July 13, 2017, 04:28:04 PM »

Wimbledon might well party this weekend like its 2007....

 Click to see full-size image.
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ripple11
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« Reply #129004 on: July 13, 2017, 06:01:23 PM »

Wimbledon might well party this weekend like its 2007....

 Click to see full-size image.


Amazing if it happens.

However I think Muguruza might be having the first dance with Roger, if she plays anything like she did today.
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bagel
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« Reply #129005 on: July 13, 2017, 08:15:09 PM »

i can go on betfair tonight and back , negraunu , hellmuth, and last years winner nguyen at odds of 120 to 1 or bigger

all three have busted already

how would bet stand if some poor punter fancied a bet without realising they were out?

buyer beware or money back?

surely a refund..
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arbboy
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« Reply #129006 on: July 13, 2017, 08:19:02 PM »

i can go on betfair tonight and back , negraunu , hellmuth, and last years winner nguyen at odds of 120 to 1 or bigger

all three have busted already

how would bet stand if some poor punter fancied a bet without realising they were out?

buyer beware or money back?

surely a refund..


I lay 1000/1 shots all the time which are already beaten.  No refunds.  Some punters want to unlock their capital having previously laid beaten selections shorter and are happy to pay the price until the market is settled.
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arbboy
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« Reply #129007 on: July 13, 2017, 08:52:33 PM »

http://www.gbgb.org.uk/resultsRace.aspx?id=2000058

£950 tricast and the winner went off 90/1 on betfair!
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bagel
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« Reply #129008 on: July 13, 2017, 09:16:15 PM »

total betfair fish here

is it common to see such a huge difference in price?

surely the on course bookies just lay everything and load up on betfair

can't be that easy
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BigAdz
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« Reply #129009 on: July 13, 2017, 09:53:01 PM »

I will put an early Kiss of death on Ian Poulter by suggesting that if any can get Fred some 90-1 on 365 for the Open next week we should take it.

He is starting to get his act back together, and posted a solid opening round in Scots open today.

Last time round he was runner up at Royal Arbdale, and only only see him starting much shorter next week.

They are paying top 5, so firmly expect him to finish 6th. Shocked
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JohnCharver
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« Reply #129010 on: July 13, 2017, 10:29:22 PM »

No Tour de France bets this year? Would hate to be on Porte at the prices (to tours Ive seen), know hes the form rider but hes always struck me as lacking the ability to get through the bad days and seems to fall off a cliff when he does (obviously these occasions have been impart due to his role requirements/not being solo first rider). Froome hasnt looked as good as previous years, any value about?

Aru for me. Every time Froome won TDF he won the Dauphine in the lead-up, didn't this year. Porte's grand tour record is vile. Quintana won the Giro, notiously tough to do the double. Aru will have Fulgsang as a quality domestique, has strong grand tour form and won the Italian national championships on Sunday. By all accounts his vanquished rivals were talking him up in the aftermath. Of the others, Contador might not be what he was, and doesn't have a super-strong team Bardet is interesting, but kind of picked up the pieces last year. I'd have Aru a fair way ahead of him in the pecking order then we're into super-domestiques who'll be riding in support of thier team leaders.

18/1 to win
11/2 w/o froome/porte
7/2 w/o big 3

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/winner?selectionName=fabio-aru

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/w-o-froome-and-porte

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/betting-without-big-3

Fabio Aru takes the yellow jersey today - Fred has another juicy live one.

Be interesting to see what happens now. Astana (aru's team) aren't set up to control the race now fulgsang (broken wrist) is a passenger and his other main domestique crashed  out yesterday. Team sky are clearly the strongest team, but froome really went pop at the top of the climb today.

Froome did appear to blow up but the position would have been a perfect one if they planned it. Also his interview suggested he was overly keen to make sure no one thought he was playing games. Thinking is he's just separated all the other players from ganging up as they probably didn't believe they could beat him befor, he's not yellow so no point beating him up anymore. Now the teams of Aru and Bardet will chase down everything and they won't attack him before final climbs etc as they think they can take him. This stage of the tour sky's domestiques usually get cooked chasing everything at a high tempo, he ends up solo for some stages,  this year they get a break and they were the best team by far today, although bardets team look decent. Would still make him fav.
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RickBFA
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« Reply #129011 on: July 14, 2017, 07:29:14 AM »

No Tour de France bets this year? Would hate to be on Porte at the prices (to tours Ive seen), know hes the form rider but hes always struck me as lacking the ability to get through the bad days and seems to fall off a cliff when he does (obviously these occasions have been impart due to his role requirements/not being solo first rider). Froome hasnt looked as good as previous years, any value about?

Aru for me. Every time Froome won TDF he won the Dauphine in the lead-up, didn't this year. Porte's grand tour record is vile. Quintana won the Giro, notiously tough to do the double. Aru will have Fulgsang as a quality domestique, has strong grand tour form and won the Italian national championships on Sunday. By all accounts his vanquished rivals were talking him up in the aftermath. Of the others, Contador might not be what he was, and doesn't have a super-strong team Bardet is interesting, but kind of picked up the pieces last year. I'd have Aru a fair way ahead of him in the pecking order then we're into super-domestiques who'll be riding in support of thier team leaders.

18/1 to win
11/2 w/o froome/porte
7/2 w/o big 3

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/winner?selectionName=fabio-aru

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/w-o-froome-and-porte

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/betting-without-big-3

Fabio Aru takes the yellow jersey today - Fred has another juicy live one.

Be interesting to see what happens now. Astana (aru's team) aren't set up to control the race now fulgsang (broken wrist) is a passenger and his other main domestique crashed  out yesterday. Team sky are clearly the strongest team, but froome really went pop at the top of the climb today.

Froome did appear to blow up but the position would have been a perfect one if they planned it. Also his interview suggested he was overly keen to make sure no one thought he was playing games. Thinking is he's just separated all the other players from ganging up as they probably didn't believe they could beat him befor, he's not yellow so no point beating him up anymore. Now the teams of Aru and Bardet will chase down everything and they won't attack him before final climbs etc as they think they can take him. This stage of the tour sky's domestiques usually get cooked chasing everything at a high tempo, he ends up solo for some stages,  this year they get a break and they were the best team by far today, although bardets team look decent. Would still make him fav.

What do people think about Bardet's price to win at 11/2?
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nellberg
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« Reply #129012 on: July 14, 2017, 07:50:31 AM »

No Tour de France bets this year? Would hate to be on Porte at the prices (to tours Ive seen), know hes the form rider but hes always struck me as lacking the ability to get through the bad days and seems to fall off a cliff when he does (obviously these occasions have been impart due to his role requirements/not being solo first rider). Froome hasnt looked as good as previous years, any value about?

Aru for me. Every time Froome won TDF he won the Dauphine in the lead-up, didn't this year. Porte's grand tour record is vile. Quintana won the Giro, notiously tough to do the double. Aru will have Fulgsang as a quality domestique, has strong grand tour form and won the Italian national championships on Sunday. By all accounts his vanquished rivals were talking him up in the aftermath. Of the others, Contador might not be what he was, and doesn't have a super-strong team Bardet is interesting, but kind of picked up the pieces last year. I'd have Aru a fair way ahead of him in the pecking order then we're into super-domestiques who'll be riding in support of thier team leaders.

18/1 to win
11/2 w/o froome/porte
7/2 w/o big 3

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/winner?selectionName=fabio-aru

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/w-o-froome-and-porte

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/betting-without-big-3

Fabio Aru takes the yellow jersey today - Fred has another juicy live one.

Be interesting to see what happens now. Astana (aru's team) aren't set up to control the race now fulgsang (broken wrist) is a passenger and his other main domestique crashed  out yesterday. Team sky are clearly the strongest team, but froome really went pop at the top of the climb today.

Froome did appear to blow up but the position would have been a perfect one if they planned it. Also his interview suggested he was overly keen to make sure no one thought he was playing games. Thinking is he's just separated all the other players from ganging up as they probably didn't believe they could beat him befor, he's not yellow so no point beating him up anymore. Now the teams of Aru and Bardet will chase down everything and they won't attack him before final climbs etc as they think they can take him. This stage of the tour sky's domestiques usually get cooked chasing everything at a high tempo, he ends up solo for some stages,  this year they get a break and they were the best team by far today, although bardets team look decent. Would still make him fav.

What do people think about Bardet's price to win at 11/2?

Still some downhill finishes to come, where his descending skills will be very useful, and he looked super strong in the finale today. Form can come and go though, Froome has looked fine all tour and suddenly didn't have the legs where as Aru looked supreme on stage 5 but couldn't match Bardet yesterday. It might just be a case of Bardet being on top form yesterday but they'll all end up beating each other on any given day etc.

AG2R Mondialle look a stronger team than Astana, but not sure that matters much as at the end it'll just be all the team leaders and a couple of Sky domestiques also. No team can match Sky for climbing power and depth.

I don't think Sky will panic yet, if they can control things they still have the time trail on stage 20 where Froome will be expected to be up to a minute ahead of Aru and Bardet in the individual time trail.

Hard to know where the value lies currently. Uran has looked as strong as any in the mountains as is a skilled time trailist, so at 20.0 I might have a little on him. He picked up a 20 second time penalty yesterday for taking a bottle inside the last 10km (cycling has some bizarre rules) which isn't ideal, but if he keeps coming top 3 in stages and picking up time bonuses he'll look to gain time on the rest of his GC rivals (barring Froome) in the ITT.

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JohnCharver
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« Reply #129013 on: July 14, 2017, 11:07:27 AM »

No Tour de France bets this year? Would hate to be on Porte at the prices (to tours Ive seen), know hes the form rider but hes always struck me as lacking the ability to get through the bad days and seems to fall off a cliff when he does (obviously these occasions have been impart due to his role requirements/not being solo first rider). Froome hasnt looked as good as previous years, any value about?

Aru for me. Every time Froome won TDF he won the Dauphine in the lead-up, didn't this year. Porte's grand tour record is vile. Quintana won the Giro, notiously tough to do the double. Aru will have Fulgsang as a quality domestique, has strong grand tour form and won the Italian national championships on Sunday. By all accounts his vanquished rivals were talking him up in the aftermath. Of the others, Contador might not be what he was, and doesn't have a super-strong team Bardet is interesting, but kind of picked up the pieces last year. I'd have Aru a fair way ahead of him in the pecking order then we're into super-domestiques who'll be riding in support of thier team leaders.

18/1 to win
11/2 w/o froome/porte
7/2 w/o big 3

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/winner?selectionName=fabio-aru

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/w-o-froome-and-porte

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/betting-without-big-3

Fabio Aru takes the yellow jersey today - Fred has another juicy live one.

Be interesting to see what happens now. Astana (aru's team) aren't set up to control the race now fulgsang (broken wrist) is a passenger and his other main domestique crashed  out yesterday. Team sky are clearly the strongest team, but froome really went pop at the top of the climb today.

Froome did appear to blow up but the position would have been a perfect one if they planned it. Also his interview suggested he was overly keen to make sure no one thought he was playing games. Thinking is he's just separated all the other players from ganging up as they probably didn't believe they could beat him befor, he's not yellow so no point beating him up anymore. Now the teams of Aru and Bardet will chase down everything and they won't attack him before final climbs etc as they think they can take him. This stage of the tour sky's domestiques usually get cooked chasing everything at a high tempo, he ends up solo for some stages,  this year they get a break and they were the best team by far today, although bardets team look decent. Would still make him fav.

What do people think about Bardet's price to win at 11/2?

Hes about right with two in front and needing a solid lead for the time trial. Got to turn them over a minute 30 over next few days. I think you'd be betting that froome is a spent force for that price to be good. Thought he looked a decent bet for today's stage, especially as he's French. If his team keep their discipline and Astana chase hard preventing breaks winning it, the stage has a long descent which will suit him if he gets over with the rest. Thought froomes price is overreaction as well for the day.
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JohnCharver
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« Reply #129014 on: July 14, 2017, 11:16:23 AM »

No Tour de France bets this year? Would hate to be on Porte at the prices (to tours Ive seen), know hes the form rider but hes always struck me as lacking the ability to get through the bad days and seems to fall off a cliff when he does (obviously these occasions have been impart due to his role requirements/not being solo first rider). Froome hasnt looked as good as previous years, any value about?

Aru for me. Every time Froome won TDF he won the Dauphine in the lead-up, didn't this year. Porte's grand tour record is vile. Quintana won the Giro, notiously tough to do the double. Aru will have Fulgsang as a quality domestique, has strong grand tour form and won the Italian national championships on Sunday. By all accounts his vanquished rivals were talking him up in the aftermath. Of the others, Contador might not be what he was, and doesn't have a super-strong team Bardet is interesting, but kind of picked up the pieces last year. I'd have Aru a fair way ahead of him in the pecking order then we're into super-domestiques who'll be riding in support of thier team leaders.

18/1 to win
11/2 w/o froome/porte
7/2 w/o big 3

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/winner?selectionName=fabio-aru

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/w-o-froome-and-porte

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/betting-without-big-3

Fabio Aru takes the yellow jersey today - Fred has another juicy live one.

Be interesting to see what happens now. Astana (aru's team) aren't set up to control the race now fulgsang (broken wrist) is a passenger and his other main domestique crashed  out yesterday. Team sky are clearly the strongest team, but froome really went pop at the top of the climb today.

Froome did appear to blow up but the position would have been a perfect one if they planned it. Also his interview suggested he was overly keen to make sure no one thought he was playing games. Thinking is he's just separated all the other players from ganging up as they probably didn't believe they could beat him befor, he's not yellow so no point beating him up anymore. Now the teams of Aru and Bardet will chase down everything and they won't attack him before final climbs etc as they think they can take him. This stage of the tour sky's domestiques usually get cooked chasing everything at a high tempo, he ends up solo for some stages,  this year they get a break and they were the best team by far today, although bardets team look decent. Would still make him fav.

What do people think about Bardet's price to win at 11/2?

Still some downhill finishes to come, where his descending skills will be very useful, and he looked super strong in the finale today. Form can come and go though, Froome has looked fine all tour and suddenly didn't have the legs where as Aru looked supreme on stage 5 but couldn't match Bardet yesterday. It might just be a case of Bardet being on top form yesterday but they'll all end up beating each other on any given day etc.

AG2R Mondialle look a stronger team than Astana, but not sure that matters much as at the end it'll just be all the team leaders and a couple of Sky domestiques also. No team can match Sky for climbing power and depth.

I don't think Sky will panic yet, if they can control things they still have the time trail on stage 20 where Froome will be expected to be up to a minute ahead of Aru and Bardet in the individual time trail.

Hard to know where the value lies currently. Uran has looked as strong as any in the mountains as is a skilled time trailist, so at 20.0 I might have a little on him. He picked up a 20 second time penalty yesterday for taking a bottle inside the last 10km (cycling has some bizarre rules) which isn't ideal, but if he keeps coming top 3 in stages and picking up time bonuses he'll look to gain time on the rest of his GC rivals (barring Froome) in the ITT.



Time penalties have been reversed (because bardet was guilty of this heinous crime as well lol).
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