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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13330076 times)
Peter-27
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« Reply #129060 on: July 16, 2017, 10:33:09 AM »

A poor day for those who followed me yesterday.

Vettel didn't get pole (as expected) and Magnussen was unfortunate not to get out of Q1. Meanwhile in Formula E, the two Mahindra drivers cocked up their qualifying sessions, and suffered problems in the race too - but they were clearly had the two fundamentally quickest cars on the circuit, by some margin too, so the idea was right.

Anyhow today's suggestions:

Race Winner - Sebastian Vettel @ 5/1 with Bet Stars and William Hill. I'm not expecting Lewis to win today - despite his pace. He's not happy at the moment and often makes mistakes when in this mood. With Valtteri starting down in 9th, the door is open for Sebastian. As yesterday, suggest £30.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/british-grand-prix/winner

Points Finish - Felipe Massa @ 2/1 with Bet 365 and Bet Victor. Wild pricing on Felipe with some bookies going EVS. 11/10 is probably the price I would have given, maybe 13/10, certainly not 2/1. Suggest £30.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/british-grand-prix/points-finish

There is currently no Formula E market available sadly, will keep an eye out.

Lewis did a 1.26.6, crushed everyone else, spoke of how the crowd lifts him, was laughing and joking on the grid interivews with jenson and dc and he's not happy?

looked fine to me....



I believe that's more of a situation specific happiness, rather than him being long term happy - if that makes any sense. Let's hold off on the Sebastian bet until we see what state he's in today during his interviews.

Massa is a no bet at 11/10 for me.

I've just woken up from my recurring pre Grand Prix Saturday nightmare about my Palmer v Hülkenberg season match bet tip. As no one's around at this hour on a Sunday I figured it was a safe time to pop in and formally apologise to Fred for it. 

The Hulk has been regularly scoring points which comes as no surprise but I didn't envisage Renault sending Palmer out in a Clio.

Jolyon's been woeful, his old man will be blaming everyone else in the paddock and I guess one or two of you will be blaming me.  Sorry guys!


I don't think you should be apologising here. Like I said when you posted the bet, the logic was correct, just one season too early. Actually, Jolyon has had a number of issues in the last two races, but his pace has been improving. By the end of the season he'll much, much closer to Nico. In 2018, he'll be on par .. and in 2019, he'll be one of the best on the grid. As I'd previously outlined, Jolyon takes an awful long time to learn a car, but when he does, he's utterly supreme.
I've just woken up from my recurring pre Grand Prix Saturday nightmare about my Palmer v Hülkenberg season match bet tip. As no one's around at this hour on a Sunday I figured it was a safe time to pop in and formally apologise to Fred for it. 

The Hulk has been regularly scoring points which comes as no surprise but I didn't envisage Renault sending Palmer out in a Clio.

Jolyon's been woeful, his old man will be blaming everyone else in the paddock and I guess one or two of you will be blaming me.  Sorry guys!


I don't think you should be apologising here. Like I said when you posted the bet, the logic was correct, just one season too early. Actually, Jolyon has had a number of issues in the last two races, but his pace has been improving. By the end of the season he'll much, much closer to a right hook from his dad. In 2018, he'll be on his bike  .. and in 2019, he'll be on I'm A Celebrity Get Me Out Of Here. As I'd previously outlined, Jolyon takes an awful long time to learn a car, but when he does, his dad is 1.01 to take most of the credit anyway

Fyp

he's going to get ditched for Kubica right?



Hopefully, surely everyone would love to kubica back on the grid?

Yep, EVERYONE would love to see Robert back. But I don't see Renault dropping Jolyon after they've invested so much in him. They know he takes a long time to develop, they wouldn't have hired him in the first place, or have kept him on for 2017, if they were just planning to ditch him after two seasons anyway. Jolyon is exactly where Renault expected him to be at this point of his career with them.
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Rod Paradise
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« Reply #129061 on: July 16, 2017, 10:59:00 AM »

A poor day for those who followed me yesterday.

Vettel didn't get pole (as expected) and Magnussen was unfortunate not to get out of Q1. Meanwhile in Formula E, the two Mahindra drivers cocked up their qualifying sessions, and suffered problems in the race too - but they were clearly had the two fundamentally quickest cars on the circuit, by some margin too, so the idea was right.

Anyhow today's suggestions:

Race Winner - Sebastian Vettel @ 5/1 with Bet Stars and William Hill. I'm not expecting Lewis to win today - despite his pace. He's not happy at the moment and often makes mistakes when in this mood. With Valtteri starting down in 9th, the door is open for Sebastian. As yesterday, suggest £30.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/british-grand-prix/winner

Points Finish - Felipe Massa @ 2/1 with Bet 365 and Bet Victor. Wild pricing on Felipe with some bookies going EVS. 11/10 is probably the price I would have given, maybe 13/10, certainly not 2/1. Suggest £30.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/british-grand-prix/points-finish

There is currently no Formula E market available sadly, will keep an eye out.

Massa, best i can do is 11/10, we are closed at bet365 and bet victor



We have BV , booked:

Single Selections
British Grand Prix Felipe Massa ( Williams ) (Points Finish - Race) Odds: 2/1 Stake: 30.00 Possible Return:  90.00
« Last Edit: July 16, 2017, 11:01:21 AM by Rod Paradise » Logged

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Peter-27
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« Reply #129062 on: July 16, 2017, 11:00:17 AM »

Formula E market is up on Sky.

https://www.skybet.com/motor-sport/formula-e/event/21002024

Suggesting exactly the same as yesterday for those that can get on.
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Dekka
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« Reply #129063 on: July 16, 2017, 11:09:53 AM »

Posting via a mobile so avoiding quoting Tighty's Post about Renault/Palmer/Kubica and making more mess on the thread Tha I already have this morning.

I'd love to see Kubica back in F1 but just can't believe he can be as quick now as he was before his injury. Renault are giving him plenty of opportunities to show them what he can do though. I don't know what Kubica brings in terms of sponsors and cash either.

I've got a bit more insight into Palmer's situation though and he's definitely been disappointing in 2017 to say the least.  Renault can't be at all satisfied with his season so far and may well be looking at genuine alternatives for 2018 already  However, Jonathan Palmer's building a new corporate driving venue in France similar to the UK ones I was involved in a while back and this may be significant.   His corporate driving events rely heavily on good partnerships with motor manufacturers who effectively compete with each other to supply him their range of cars for using on the events for free.  Across the Palmer "empire" this will mean a manufacturer donating several hundred new cars each year. In return he'll get 25,000 corporate guests of the right demographic thrashing them round the track at each venue every year. These driving days do generate a lot of new car sales for manufacturers one way or another. For example every company fleet buyer in the UK gets invites to plenty of Palmer's events each year. PalmerSport probably have close to 100k corporate driving customers a year now across their venues. (We charged nearly £400 per guest in 1999)  His events are world class but  only Renault know what weight this all adds to Jolyon's case. I doubt  Renault pay him more than a token salary and it's quite possible the Palmer's (and their sponsors) are paying for the drive anyway.  Jolyon's exceptional at all the off track stuff such as schmoozing sponsors, attending events, TV stuff etc and teams value that surprisingly highly in at least one of their drivers.  

It's odds on that JP senior will have agreements in place with Renault for his new French venue (and maybe his UK ones too) and I'd be gobsmacked if JP junior's seat in the F1 car isn't woven into the deal somehow. I guess what I'm saying is that most other drivers would be a certainty for the chop but, just as in 2016 when Jolyon,s F1 career was also under pressure, there may be more factors in play here than is immediately apparent.  One such factor is how much value Jolyon adds to his dad's businesses by being a current F1 driver.  Jonathan will move mountains to keep his lad in the car if it's at all feasible.  I've yet to meet a harder working businessman than Jonathan Palmer and if anyone can keep the Renault drive for Jolyon he can.  He's ruthless, relentless and he can be innovative in his deal making too. (google Justin Wilson PLC).  He's also remarkably unlikeable and a bloody nightmare to work for.

In conclusion Tighty I have absolutely no idea how it'll pan out but it's been nice waffling at you and I'm hoping Peter will step in with all the answers for us.  Despite all the above surely Jolyon's going to need to improve massively from now on to have any realistic chance for 2018.
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Peter-27
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« Reply #129064 on: July 16, 2017, 11:43:19 AM »

Posting via a mobile so avoiding quoting Tighty's Post about Renault/Palmer/Kubica and making more mess on the thread Tha I already have this morning.

I'd love to see Kubica back in F1 but just can't believe he can be as quick now as he was before his injury. Renault are giving him plenty of opportunities to show them what he can do though. I don't know what Kubica brings in terms of sponsors and cash either.

I've got a bit more insight into Palmer's situation though and he's definitely been disappointing in 2017 to say the least.  Renault can't be at all satisfied with his season so far and may well be looking at genuine alternatives for 2018 already  However, Jonathan Palmer's building a new corporate driving venue in France similar to the UK ones I was involved in a while back and this may be significant.   His corporate driving events rely heavily on good partnerships with motor manufacturers who effectively compete with each other to supply him their range of cars for using on the events for free.  Across the Palmer "empire" this will mean a manufacturer donating several hundred new cars each year. In return he'll get 25,000 corporate guests of the right demographic thrashing them round the track at each venue every year. These driving days do generate a lot of new car sales for manufacturers one way or another. For example every company fleet buyer in the UK gets invites to plenty of Palmer's events each year. PalmerSport probably have close to 100k corporate driving customers a year now across their venues. (We charged nearly £400 per guest in 1999)  His events are world class but  only Renault know what weight this all adds to Jolyon's case. I doubt  Renault pay him more than a token salary and it's quite possible the Palmer's (and their sponsors) are paying for the drive anyway.  Jolyon's exceptional at all the off track stuff such as schmoozing sponsors, attending events, TV stuff etc and teams value that surprisingly highly in at least one of their drivers.  

It's odds on that JP senior will have agreements in place with Renault for his new French venue (and maybe his UK ones too) and I'd be gobsmacked if JP junior's seat in the F1 car isn't woven into the deal somehow. I guess what I'm saying is that most other drivers would be a certainty for the chop but, just as in 2016 when Jolyon,s F1 career was also under pressure, there may be more factors in play here than is immediately apparent.  One such factor is how much value Jolyon adds to his dad's businesses by being a current F1 driver.  Jonathan will move mountains to keep his lad in the car if it's at all feasible.  I've yet to meet a harder working businessman than Jonathan Palmer and if anyone can keep the Renault drive for Jolyon he can.  He's ruthless, relentless and he can be innovative in his deal making too. (google Justin Wilson PLC).  He's also remarkably unlikeable and a bloody nightmare to work for.

In conclusion Tighty I have absolutely no idea how it'll pan out but it's been nice waffling at you and I'm hoping Peter will step in with all the answers for us.  Despite all the above surely Jolyon's going to need to improve massively from now on to have any realistic chance for 2018.

You'd have to imagine that Robert has lost something since his accident. I've been trying to find out how he did in his tests, and while Renault were certainly impressed, they're all being very non-specific about his performance.

I honestly have no clue about how Jonathan's businesses link into Jolyon's F1 seat, but I disagree with the premise entirely. I don't think Jolyon has been disappointing in 2017, he's exactly on track with where I expected him to be, and I believe Renault to think the same. I don't think his seat is under pressure in the slightest .. it would just be downright stupidity to let him go. Renault knew this was a long term project when they hired him.
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« Reply #129065 on: July 16, 2017, 11:49:14 AM »

For years I've had no interest in F1

Informed, insightful, candid and revealing commentary from Dekka, Peter and others on here have changed that.

Thanks, it's appreciated.

P.S. I did the Jolyon bet, but no complaints here. We all know that the bets come with some risk attached  Wink
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Peter-27
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« Reply #129066 on: July 16, 2017, 11:53:11 AM »

For years I've had no interest in F1

Informed, insightful, candid and revealing commentary from Dekka, Peter and others on here have changed that.

Thanks, it's appreciated.

P.S. I did the Jolyon bet, but no complaints here. We all know that the bets come with some risk attached  Wink

This has made my day  Smiley Thank you.
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« Reply #129067 on: July 16, 2017, 12:01:34 PM »

For years I've had no interest in F1

Informed, insightful, candid and revealing commentary from Dekka, Peter and others on here have changed that.

Thanks, it's appreciated.

P.S. I did the Jolyon bet, but no complaints here. We all know that the bets come with some risk attached  Wink

This has made my day  Smiley Thank you.

That Formula E track is absolutely ridiculous with those hairpins! Must be fun to watch at the track though.
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« Reply #129068 on: July 16, 2017, 12:03:01 PM »

Bit off the cuff this one but value is value.  Anyone who had a supercasino.com account (channel 5 tv casino late at night) they are offering 25% cashback on losses this weekend (maximum of £1000 refund)  Think you need to be invited into the promo so worth checking your emails to see if you have got it.  IF not you can email them the T&C's say to be entered in.

You have to have minimum of 10 £20 bets to qualify.  T&C's are below.  So fire through 10 £20 hands of blackjack then you have qualified to basically have up to a £4000 bet at 4/3 effectively on red or black on roulette or a single hand of blackjack.  If you win you get your £4k if you lose you get a grand back and you only lost £3k.   No roll over requirements either.  Anyone see anything here in the T&C's that i have missed? The offer is bonkers.  Literally setting fire to hundreds of £ of EV to anyone with a brain using this offer.

https://www.supercasino.com/promotions/mid-month-moneyback-weekend
« Last Edit: July 16, 2017, 12:05:45 PM by arbboy » Logged
Dekka
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« Reply #129069 on: July 16, 2017, 12:07:44 PM »

For years I've had no interest in F1

Informed, insightful, candid and revealing commentary from Dekka, Peter and others on here have changed that.

Thanks, it's appreciated.

P.S. I did the Jolyon bet,  but no complaints here. We all know that the bets come with some risk attached  Wink

This has made my day  Smiley Thank you.


This has ruined mine! Hang in there though, he will improve as the season goes on but we need Hulk to have issues too. GL us.
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« Reply #129070 on: July 16, 2017, 01:00:22 PM »

https://www.racingpost.com/sport/wimbledon/fantastic-federer-set-for-eighth-wimbledon-success/293035

The oldest outstanding bet in the racing post portfolio ante post has surfaced today. Bit older than anything in the TFT spreadsheet.  Supposedly they tipped Cilic at 33/1!!!!! in 2007 to Wimbledon at any stage in his career a few weeks after him making the 1/4's at Queens beating Henman and losing to ARod in the quarters when he reached a career high the of 101st in the world at the age of 18.  Seems an incredible price for a guy built to win on grass even if they have had to wait for a chance to cop.  Similar to backing him at around 500/1 every year for Wimbledon for the rest of his career.

The writer must be on personally to even remember tipping a bet 10 years ago and have a very thin brag potentially 10 years on.

Onto today anyway.  Can anyone explain why Cilic is being backed?  He has literally beat no one all event, had the scheduling draw from heaven, run into banged up players who had played multiple 5 setters whilst not looking that impressive until they run out of gas.  I remember Federer going off 1/8 against Arod in his prime in Wimbledon finals.  I just cannot understand how Fed is 1/4 given how Federer has smashed up in his draw this week (Dim, Raonic, Berd) all better versions of big serving Cilic imo.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2017, 01:24:41 PM by arbboy » Logged
Dekka
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« Reply #129071 on: July 16, 2017, 01:26:21 PM »

Business as usual for the Palmer v Hülkenberg match bet. Palmer pulls over before the grid is formed, Hülkenberg absolutely flying in 6th after 10 laps. The only Renault I ever owned broke down a lot so there's still hope for a Hulk dnf and a hard fought nil-nil on the day.
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« Reply #129072 on: July 16, 2017, 02:34:51 PM »

Well the stewards may not have punished Vettel for the last race, but at least Karma caught up with him.

Crazy final few laps! Assume Verstappens tyre was about to blow like Vettel and that's why they dragged him in instead of running out the last couple of laps for third? Seemed a weird one otherwise
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« Reply #129073 on: July 16, 2017, 02:46:17 PM »

Well the stewards may not have punished Vettel for the last race, but at least Karma caught up with him.


GTFO Cheesy
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« Reply #129074 on: July 16, 2017, 03:14:39 PM »

fed 3-2 up on aces after 2nd set for anyone who got involved.  Cilic injured and got little power in his shots.  Looking good given if its a draw you get your stake back anyway.

Just out of interest spreadex this morning had Cilic aces in for 18.5 and fed's 16.5 so the 7/2 was clearly a huge rick and the £20k 2/1 lump the bf exchange judge wanted on the exchange was also too big as well based on those spreads.

edit. 6-4 fed aces now.  Cilic hitting harder now after a medical timeout.  Be tough to lose from here.  Fed broken serve so Cilic potentially only got one more service game to serve 2 aces even if fed doesn't serve any more.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2017, 03:43:39 PM by arbboy » Logged
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