Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

i think its down as my bet because you didn't want it in your name? don't really want to lay it back yet.

(didn't see the post yesterday sorry)

[TightEnd]

more



Arsenal/Bellerin pen not given,Lacazette a shoelace width offside

not ready to anoint Stoke as a mid-table side yet, any more than try to argue that Huddersfield will stay up or West Brom hit the top six

have to admit Jese looked good though and we know Butland is superb

going to be a long season if we knee-jerk after every result

[Matt50]

more



Arsenal/Bellerin pen not given,Lacazette a shoelace width offside

not ready to anoint Stoke as a mid-table side yet, any more than try to argue that Huddersfield will stay up or West Brom hit the top six

have to admit Jese looked good though and we know Butland is superb

going to be a long season if we knee-jerk after every result

I have seen quite a few references xG this season, even on MoTD.
I know it relates to expected goals (or I assume it does) for each match, but could somebody explain in simple terms how it works.

[TightEnd]

as luck would have it.....

Expectations

Already used by many clubs, analysts and bettors for several years the Expected Goals metric from Opta is moving into the mainstream, featuring on Match of the Day this season.

An expected goal shows the percentage likelihood of a player scoring from a position on the pitch and shows how many goals a player or a team should have scored based on the chances they had in a game or over the course of a season. Each chance is ascribed a 'quality value' (xG) based on thousands of chances analysed by Opta over the history of the Premier League. The higher that figure, with one the maximum value, the more likely a chance will be converted. xG is a way of establishing whether a player is scoring more or less goals than his chances should dictate. .

Each of last season's top eight premier league goal-scorers, the exception being Sergio Aguero, scored more goals than their expected goals would suggest. Harry Kane scored 29 goals, 10 goals more than expected by the quality of chances given to him or created by him.

Opta's key xG factor are:

    Distance from goal
    Angle of the shot
    Was it a shot or a header?
    Has the player just gone around an opponent?
    Was it a one on one or were defenders involved?
    What was the assist like? (e.g. long ball, pull-back, cross, through ball)
    In what part of the game did the chance occur? (e.g. open play, direct free-kick, corner kick)
    Is it a rebound?

Expected goals are useful when trying to anticipate turning points and reversions to mean ahead of betting markets, and in counteracting media/fan over-reactions to short term results.

Juventus in 2015-16 are an example cited by the BBC. They won only three of their first 10 games but analysis shows they were vastly outperforming that level of results. When results turned for the better and “G” became more correlated with “xG” they eventually won the title.

It can help when looking at both ends of the pitch, not only expected goals but expected goals against can be analysed. A team may be good or bad defensively, but might be doing better or worse in actual goals conceded than the xA statistic shows us

It is of course very early in this Premier League season but we can look at a few of last weekend’s games to illustrate what we might be looking for:

Southampton Swansea finished 0-0. We could see with our own eyes on highlights that Southampton created a lot of chances. The xG for two sides was Southampton 2.2 Swansea 0.3

Chelsea-Burnley? Down to 10 men early Chelsea were 3-0 down and lost 3-2. The xG? 1.3 and 0.7 respectively. Nothing to get too gloomy about for the home team, or too bullish about for the away team.

Crystal Palace-Huddersfield? Huddersfield won 3-0 but the xG? 0.9-0.6 (plus an own goal)

Everton-Stoke? 1-0  to Everton. Stoke? Their xG was lowest in the division over the weekend at 0.3 but Everton were only at 0.7 too

On Sunday, Newcastle and Tottenham began slowly and xG was well less than 1 for both teams in the first half. Then Newcastle were reduced to ten men and their xG understandably remained low. Tottenham’s leapt to 1.7.

Returning again to last season, and broadening out to a longer time frame the cumulative Expected goals for and against were as follows for last season's champions and this season's favourites:

Manchester City xG 79.4 xA (expected goals against) 28.4 xGD (expected goal difference) 51.1

Chelsea xG 64 xA 28.5 xGD 35.5

Statistics like this, over and above discounting what has happened in transfer market, help explain the bullishness for City this season that saw them go off around 2/1 to regain the title.

[Karabiner]

"This is like hanging -3 on the Super Bowl and seeing the line move to -8."

Why Mayweather-McGregor is alarming Vegas oddsmakers

Great piece

http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/20407149/gambling-how-floyd-mayweather-conor-mcgregor-fight-alarming-vegas-oddmakers

I was just thinking, is there another way to approach this? McGregor is going to be totally outclassed clearly but Mayweather hasn't knocked anyone out for a decade. What will McGregor do? Constant holding and illegal hitting, throwing Mayweather? Might McGregor to be disqualified be a bet? Does that kinda save face for McGregor?
B365 have Mayweather by disqualification @ 12/1, I can't see the price on other sites.

I like this too - there must be a chance he throws a kick or some other illegal move to save face if he feels like he's being humiliated.

[Karabiner]

Anyone had any dealings with unibet?

[Matt50]

as luck would have it.....

Expectations

Already used by many clubs, analysts and bettors for several years the Expected Goals metric from Opta is moving into the mainstream, featuring on Match of the Day this season.

An expected goal shows the percentage likelihood of a player scoring from a position on the pitch and shows how many goals a player or a team should have scored based on the chances they had in a game or over the course of a season. Each chance is ascribed a 'quality value' (xG) based on thousands of chances analysed by Opta over the history of the Premier League. The higher that figure, with one the maximum value, the more likely a chance will be converted. xG is a way of establishing whether a player is scoring more or less goals than his chances should dictate. .

Each of last season's top eight premier league goal-scorers, the exception being Sergio Aguero, scored more goals than their expected goals would suggest. Harry Kane scored 29 goals, 10 goals more than expected by the quality of chances given to him or created by him.

Opta's key xG factor are:

    Distance from goal
    Angle of the shot
    Was it a shot or a header?
    Has the player just gone around an opponent?
    Was it a one on one or were defenders involved?
    What was the assist like? (e.g. long ball, pull-back, cross, through ball)
    In what part of the game did the chance occur? (e.g. open play, direct free-kick, corner kick)
    Is it a rebound?

Expected goals are useful when trying to anticipate turning points and reversions to mean ahead of betting markets, and in counteracting media/fan over-reactions to short term results.

Juventus in 2015-16 are an example cited by the BBC. They won only three of their first 10 games but analysis shows they were vastly outperforming that level of results. When results turned for the better and “G” became more correlated with “xG” they eventually won the title.

It can help when looking at both ends of the pitch, not only expected goals but expected goals against can be analysed. A team may be good or bad defensively, but might be doing better or worse in actual goals conceded than the xA statistic shows us

It is of course very early in this Premier League season but we can look at a few of last weekend’s games to illustrate what we might be looking for:

Southampton Swansea finished 0-0. We could see with our own eyes on highlights that Southampton created a lot of chances. The xG for two sides was Southampton 2.2 Swansea 0.3

Chelsea-Burnley? Down to 10 men early Chelsea were 3-0 down and lost 3-2. The xG? 1.3 and 0.7 respectively. Nothing to get too gloomy about for the home team, or too bullish about for the away team.

Crystal Palace-Huddersfield? Huddersfield won 3-0 but the xG? 0.9-0.6 (plus an own goal)

Everton-Stoke? 1-0  to Everton. Stoke? Their xG was lowest in the division over the weekend at 0.3 but Everton were only at 0.7 too

On Sunday, Newcastle and Tottenham began slowly and xG was well less than 1 for both teams in the first half. Then Newcastle were reduced to ten men and their xG understandably remained low. Tottenham’s leapt to 1.7.

Returning again to last season, and broadening out to a longer time frame the cumulative Expected goals for and against were as follows for last season's champions and this season's favourites:

Manchester City xG 79.4 xA (expected goals against) 28.4 xGD (expected goal difference) 51.1

Chelsea xG 64 xA 28.5 xGD 35.5

Statistics like this, over and above discounting what has happened in transfer market, help explain the bullishness for City this season that saw them go off around 2/1 to regain the title.

Thanks Rich

So if the chance falls to Aguero, is his expected goal value higher than if the same chance fell to Kompany?

[TightEnd]

the chance is of the same "quality" in xG terms whoever it falls to, depending on the factors that Opta use to assess that. obviously from there you can assess the player's finishing ability (Aguero higher than Kompany,logically) with that chance based on how many times he scores/misses it over a suitable sample size.

[TightEnd]

there is a good one in the championship at the moment

Brentford have most shots on target in the division and highest xG (haven't checked since saturday) and are bottom of the table.

[Killerkilsby]

"This is like hanging -3 on the Super Bowl and seeing the line move to -8."

Why Mayweather-McGregor is alarming Vegas oddsmakers

Great piece

http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/20407149/gambling-how-floyd-mayweather-conor-mcgregor-fight-alarming-vegas-oddmakers

I was just thinking, is there another way to approach this? McGregor is going to be totally outclassed clearly but Mayweather hasn't knocked anyone out for a decade. What will McGregor do? Constant holding and illegal hitting, throwing Mayweather? Might McGregor to be disqualified be a bet? Does that kinda save face for McGregor?
B365 have Mayweather by disqualification @ 12/1, I can't see the price on other sites.

I like this too - there must be a chance he throws a kick or some other illegal move to save face if he feels like he's being humiliated.

Skybet have McGregor to be knocked down and then disqualified at 25/1. Fits with the logic as he will probably have been down if being embaressed?

[Doobs]

"This is like hanging -3 on the Super Bowl and seeing the line move to -8."

Why Mayweather-McGregor is alarming Vegas oddsmakers

Great piece

http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/20407149/gambling-how-floyd-mayweather-conor-mcgregor-fight-alarming-vegas-oddmakers

I was just thinking, is there another way to approach this? McGregor is going to be totally outclassed clearly but Mayweather hasn't knocked anyone out for a decade. What will McGregor do? Constant holding and illegal hitting, throwing Mayweather? Might McGregor to be disqualified be a bet? Does that kinda save face for McGregor?
B365 have Mayweather by disqualification @ 12/1, I can't see the price on other sites.

I like this too - there must be a chance he throws a kick or some other illegal move to save face if he feels like he's being humiliated.

I don't watch boxing much, if ever these days, but what is normal here?  You see people getting warned and docked points, but there appears to be very few disqualifications.  Even when Tyson bit Holyfield's ear it took a while for him to be disqualified.

I'd say it is definitely more likely than in a "normal" fight, but we may have to move a long way from normal for 12/1 to be value.  Has anybody got any stats on the number of disqualifications in big fights?  
  

[arbboy]

Anyone had any dealings with unibet?

Yes very brief like most firms.

[Karabiner]

Anyone had any dealings with unibet?

Yes very brief like most firms.

Trustworthy and pay out without asking for a birth certificate?

[arbboy]

Anyone had any dealings with unibet?

Yes very brief like most firms.

Trustworthy and pay out without asking for a birth certificate?

Didn't find the pay desk before being booted.  I doubt it will be simple to deal with them document wise in 2017.  Just a guess though.

[bergeroo]

Anyone had any dealings with unibet?

Yes very brief like most firms.

Trustworthy and pay out without asking for a birth certificate?

Didn't find the pay desk before being booted.  I doubt it will be simple to deal with them document wise in 2017.  Just a guess though.

Unibet are a big firm, really trying to grow their poker room. Never been able to get a decent bet on with them though...