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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13333859 times)
Chompy
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« Reply #130500 on: October 15, 2017, 11:22:53 AM »

Richie Wellens @ 4-5 for the Oldham gig is way too big with Scuy.

Steve Lovell @ 8-1 for the Gills job also too big. Fatty Evans is favourite but I still think he's just counting the hours until his old mate Darragh comes a knocking.
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"I know we must all worship at the Church of Chomps, but statements like this are just plain ridic. He says he can't get a bet on, but we all know he can."
tikay
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« Reply #130501 on: October 15, 2017, 11:33:52 AM »

I gather Tony Bloom's horse hosed up in the Cesarewitch, landing a hefty gamble. If Messrs Camel & Channing were not both on that, I'll eat my hat. He purchased the winner over a year ago, put it away, had one prep race & then hacked up. MBN.

Brighton are 9/4 at home today to beat Everton.

Could be a good weekend for Mr Bloom.


 Click to see full-size image.
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« Reply #130502 on: October 15, 2017, 12:08:20 PM »

Good day for some favourites to get beat at the darts I believe.

Clayton @ 15/8 vs smith, Smith on poor form really and Clayton having a simply blinding week. 10/11 +1.5 is ok but he's got his winning hat on IMO JC and i don't think he's gonna mess about.

I think Jan Dekker has a great shout against Whitlock who seems a little hungover since his GP final, +1.5 at evens seems great to me.

also andy Boulton has been playing great and Vincent van der Voort is so prone to a back failure I think 13/10 looks superb.
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Tal
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« Reply #130503 on: October 15, 2017, 02:57:29 PM »

We did this a couple of weeks ago, but the Tight End versus the Chargers bet is on again today.

The Raiders have Derek Carr back at QB and have problems at Wide Receiver. The ball is going to a now fit Jared Cook at least 5 times today. Patrick's 34.5 yards, even at 5/6, is terrific value. I'd have the line at 50 at least.
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Tal
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« Reply #130504 on: October 15, 2017, 03:55:11 PM »

Am sadly unable to accommodate Fred on this one (or with Betwhey or BMU).

Sad day.

£30 recommendation btw (sorry, I missed that off before)
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« Reply #130505 on: October 15, 2017, 04:31:35 PM »

Overdue? He had enough of those last season. Smiley


Lewis only had two DNF's last season, which was very, very good when compared with everyone else.

apart from Nico... 

7/1 isn't even a great price on either of the Mercedes to retire.  Betting on something because it hasn't happened for a while seems like wonky thinking.   

Indeed. Nico had one. Ricciardo actually finished every race, and Perez classified in every race.

Not sure I entirely agree, law of averages suggests every car will have at least one mechanical failure during the season. I think I would always be happy to take 7/1 at this stage of the season on a car which has yet to suffer retirement. Happy to be convinced otherwise though, as I'm not 100% confident in my logic there.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages


Depending on context or application it can be considered a valid common-sense observation or a misunderstanding of probability. This notion can lead to fallacious thinking when one becomes convinced that a particular outcome must come soon simply because it has not occurred recently

At the start of the season, you can look at all the stats and decide Lewis is going to retire one race in ten (or whatever it is), so the odds on a retirement is 9/1.  If he doesn't retire in the first 9 races, that doesn't mean he is "due one" in the next race.  The odds are still going to be 9/1.  If anything, you could learn that maybe the Mercedes has got even more reliable than you thought, and that 9/1 is now too short.  There are always going to be occasions where retirement is more likely; like if the track is attritional, like Monaco; or the weather is really hot; or maybe the engine is reaching the end of its expected lifespan, but none of those will be because he is "due one".

I would say that the law of averages is right up there with "Momentum" as a bad reason to make a bet.  Will leave the momentum one to Camel, I can't hear that word in a commentary without thinking of The Camel these days.       

I understand the principle of the law of averages, and I can't directly argue with anything you've said. However, I think you've completely skimmed over a key component, cumulative effect. This isn't red/black roulette scenario because car components (at least the ones that are carry over) degrade over time which directly increases the chance of a failure at the next race. Of course I don't know Mercedes' component rotation, but I could take an educated guess, and I would be certain that many components have been on that car since the season began. It's worth noting that the component reconditioning process only happens following a shunt or reliability issue due to logistics.

Perhaps another much simpler way of looking at it is that if you look back through history, it's fairly rare for a driver to go a whole season without a retirement during a circa 20 race season. The last five times this happened was:

Daniel Ricciardo - 2016
Max Chilton - 2013
Kimi Raikkonen - 2012
Nick Heidfeld - 2008
Michael Schumacher - 2002

Although, you could make the argument that reliability on the whole is consistently improving as time passes and technology develops, so who knows. I still feel like 7/1 was value though.



Firstly, it was me that mentioned components might get worn out, but I doubt it is much of an angle.  These things have estimated lifespans and Mercedes have such a lead, they don't need to chance their arm anymore.  Is there any real evidence that cars fail more often late in a season?  My inclination is that it is nore likely early on when there are more new bits going on the car. 

On the full season stats, much as a roulette wheel doesn't know that number 26 hasn't come up for 100 spins, the components of a car don't know that Lewis has gone 16 races without breaking down.  I dare say Lewis isn't going to feel any pressure from this, as though I am sure he loves a reliable car, he isn't going to be stressed that he could be the 6th person to go through a season without a retirement. 

Right now, they need to last 4 races and not 20 right now, so past full season stats are near meaningless.   On a 7/1 race price, he must be about 5/4 to go the rest of the season without a retirement, and I'd happily lay that in decent size.  I'd be absolutely batshit crazy to lay that at the start of the season. 

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« Reply #130506 on: October 15, 2017, 05:01:00 PM »

Hou v Cle Inside the redzone I think Cleveland will use Hogan as a read option Qb.Desperate to keep the starting job I feel he'll play it safe and tuck it and run.Recommend Hogan anytime td 13/2 rzs £10.
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« Reply #130507 on: October 15, 2017, 05:26:57 PM »

Hou v Cle Inside the redzone I think Cleveland will use Hogan as a read option Qb.Desperate to keep the starting job I feel he'll play it safe and tuck it and run.Recommend Hogan anytime td 13/2 rzs £10.

Good angle. Like it.
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« Reply #130508 on: October 15, 2017, 05:32:34 PM »

Dunno if we are still betting, but here goes.

I think we should get on Susan Calman each way.  Massively improved in her dance last night and still priced amongst the also rans at 100/1.

There was loads of positive comment out there and I think a lot of people will really want to vote for someone who isn't the usual stick thin or super-toned type.   What is more, is that she genuinely seems to be loving the experience, amd that should go a long way.  Others claim to be loving it, but a fair few seem to force it too much.  Maybe first is too much to hope for, but 20/1 top 3 looks really big right now.

Anyway, price is going so we can't wait.  I guess corals is dead loss, but we can do marathon?

Suggest a tenner each way at 100/1.



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tikay
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« Reply #130509 on: October 15, 2017, 06:05:23 PM »

Hou v Cle Inside the redzone I think Cleveland will use Hogan as a read option Qb.Desperate to keep the starting job I feel he'll play it safe and tuck it and run.Recommend Hogan anytime td 13/2 rzs £10.

Sorry - by the time I found the bet on RZ, they had kicked off & withdrawn the market.

Good luck though.
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« Reply #130510 on: October 15, 2017, 06:10:32 PM »

Dunno if we are still betting, but here goes.

I think we should get on Susan Calman each way.  Massively improved in her dance last night and still priced amongst the also rans at 100/1.

There was loads of positive comment out there and I think a lot of people will really want to vote for someone who isn't the usual stick thin or super-toned type.   What is more, is that she genuinely seems to be loving the experience, amd that should go a long way.  Others claim to be loving it, but a fair few seem to force it too much.  Maybe first is too much to hope for, but 20/1 top 3 looks really big right now.

Anyway, price is going so we can't wait.  I guess corals is dead loss, but we can do marathon?

Suggest a tenner each way at 100/1.





Thanks David.

Had to place the bet via Mobile, as I got this nonsense again when I tried via Laptop;

We can not accept bets or registrations from this jurisdiction. Please contact Customer Care for more details.


No worries, we are on though;

£10 EW @ 100/1 (one fifth, 1,2,3) Susan Calman

BET PLACED
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« Reply #130511 on: October 15, 2017, 06:13:25 PM »

An oddity of Marathon is that when I go to "Open Bets", it shows the bet but not the odds.

Here's the Susan Calman screamer;



15 Oct 17:38 £ 20.00 Single Winner - Calman, Susan - Yes Unsettled  


(The bet is £10 EW @ 100/1, one fifth 1,2,3)

 

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« Reply #130512 on: October 15, 2017, 09:05:51 PM »

No td for hogan who had a shocker
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« Reply #130513 on: October 15, 2017, 10:12:01 PM »

I'd appreciate views on a few football bets that look to me to offer value on Tuesday night.

Blackpool v Bury - Bury are 16/5. Blackpool started season well but been inconsistent recently. Bury beaten Blackburn and Bradford in last 2 games and under rated.

Exeter v Luton - Exeter are 9/4. Two good teams perhaps the price is an over reaction to Luton's big win at the weekend. Different playing away from home at a team that have been in top 2 all season.

Bradford v Oldham - Oldham are 9/2. Richie Wellens seems to be doing something right. Heard him on Radio 5 and was really impressive. Oldham will be full of confidence. Whilst Bradford are a good side, they can blow up at home sometimes like losing 3-0 to Fleetwood recently, 9/2 looks big.








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« Reply #130514 on: October 15, 2017, 10:31:26 PM »

I'd appreciate views on a few football bets that look to me to offer value on Tuesday night.

Blackpool v Bury - Bury are 16/5. Blackpool started season well but been inconsistent recently. Bury beaten Blackburn and Bradford in last 2 games and under rated.

Exeter v Luton - Exeter are 9/4. Two good teams perhaps the price is an over reaction to Luton's big win at the weekend. Different playing away from home at a team that have been in top 2 all season.

Bradford v Oldham - Oldham are 9/2. Richie Wellens seems to be doing something right. Heard him on Radio 5 and was really impressive. Oldham will be full of confidence. Whilst Bradford are a good side, they can blow up at home sometimes like losing 3-0 to Fleetwood recently, 9/2 looks big.









Luton looked very dodgy defending crosses against Stevenage and should have conceded 3 before halftime.If Exeter have an arial threat upfront I wouldn't put you off at that price.
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