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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13333776 times)
Chompy
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« Reply #130515 on: October 16, 2017, 12:06:29 AM »

I like Bury to beat Blackpool. Blackpool were massively flattered by their good start and got way more goals from outside the area than you'd expect.

Southend should beat Posh and it could get nasty. They're not playing for the gaffer one bit and Orange Phil has one over us big time.
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"I know we must all worship at the Church of Chomps, but statements like this are just plain ridic. He says he can't get a bet on, but we all know he can."
tikay
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« Reply #130516 on: October 16, 2017, 11:17:29 AM »


Rumour has it that it is Camel's birthday today.

Happy Birthday Mr H.


What line we setting on his age?


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TheDazzler
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« Reply #130517 on: October 16, 2017, 11:44:39 AM »

A Hurricane is currently battering Ireland. I don't think it's going to affect England so much but there are forecasts for high winds in the Leicester area tonight.
In NFL poor weather results in lower scores, I think? In football, high winds could lead to higher scores I'm thinking?
Anyway I'm going to have a little nibble on +7.5 goals (@ 190.0) and +8.5 goals (@ 500.0) in the Leicester vs WBA this evening. Let's have some goalkeepers scoring from goal kicks tonight!
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Simon Galloway
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« Reply #130518 on: October 16, 2017, 02:25:36 PM »


Rumour has it that it is Camel's birthday today.

Happy Birthday Mr H.


What line we setting on his age?




49.5 - 50.5
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« Reply #130519 on: October 16, 2017, 02:55:37 PM »


Rumour has it that it is Camel's birthday today.

Happy Birthday Mr H.


What line we setting on his age?




49.5 - 50.5

That is a massive buy at over 50.5.

Cant have in a million he is younger than me.
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« Reply #130520 on: October 16, 2017, 04:04:37 PM »


Rumour has it that it is Camel's birthday today.

Happy Birthday Mr H.


What line we setting on his age?




Thank you!

Julian Thew was born on the exact same day.

Between us we have won 1 EPT and 3 GUKPT titles.

Happy birthday yoyo.
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« Reply #130521 on: October 16, 2017, 04:09:55 PM »

Happy birthday, gents!
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Nakor
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« Reply #130522 on: October 16, 2017, 04:13:22 PM »


Rumour has it that it is Camel's birthday today.

Happy Birthday Mr H.


What line we setting on his age?




Thank you!

Julian Thew was born on the exact same day.

Between us we have won 1 EPT and 3 GUKPT titles.

Happy birthday yoyo.

Did you have to carry his paper bag as well?
Have a good day both.
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Tal
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« Reply #130523 on: October 16, 2017, 06:57:22 PM »

Strictly Come Dancing

Doobs has come up with a fun one in Susan Calman. I don't see her winning, but she has a brilliant teacher, is having a lot of fun, is popular and all that counts for a lot in a show where the viewer voite matters. At 100/1, it's hard to have a bad bet.


I'm expecting the market to continue to go nuts for the top two in Alex and Aston. They are head and shoulders above everyone else and it's entirely possible one goes on to get 35+ every week for the next month and then 38+ every dance thereafter, walking away with it like Mark Ramprakash or Alesha Dixon.

But Aston isn't a very good ballroom dancer (his frame is poor and his footwork sketchy - he is a good dancer in the general sense, but he's not got the technique for ballroom or latin as yet), plus he looks like a ringer, where Ramps/Dixon were clearly amateurs who just happened to be able to dance. Alexandra is annoying me already, and I'm usually pretty tolerant when people are good. It was some jive though. No value in those two.

I'm looking for a grower: Strictly has typically rewarded the latecomers over the fast starters; people love a story. Oftentimes, it's someone who gets by week on week without causing much of a scene, but does enough to get votes with both judges and the public to survive.

Two lads stand out for me in this respect:

Joe McFadden is being given a raw deal in training from Katya, who's methods are unusual but designed to develop his muscles in the areas that will most help him down the line. She's training him for the later stages of the competition. Add to that she (with husband Neil) is an outstanding choreographer and you can see him being popular late on. He's very unpolished and, frankly, the fact he didn't do a great cha-cha-cha is no surprise; white middle aged blokes don't tend to look naturals early on at a dance like that. Matt Dawson's was appalling and Matt DiAngelo not much better (both went on to the final). I think Katya thinks he's got a lot of potential. He's got a bad one out of the way. Time will tell whether he does kick on. Worth noting he's had very difficult music: last weekend's dance was far too quick for him (there is a strict tempo for competition dancing, but SCD's producers eschew that in favour of "popular" songs in their own, normal time, when strict tempo is designed to be the right pace for Pro and Amateur alike.

Davood Ghodami has an excellent frame in ballroom, good feet and, well, he's a fit lad. We know that his partner Nadiya is a 10-dancer, which is the decathlon of dance (like athletics, it's for people who are brilliant at nothing, but who can do all disciplines well). Darren Bennett and Lilya Kopylova were 10-dancers (won with Jill Halfpenny and Darren Gough respectively). Nadiya's given him tough routines, with lots of content, though her choreography is a little naive at times for Strictly purposes, which is a bit of a concern (sometimes showing the lad off a bit is a good thing; sometimes, it's better to give him basic steps and let him show the judges he can dance). He got done for a lift on Saturday. That was because he picked Nadiya up too high (it wasn't intentional) - a mistake he's been making all week in training, just not knowing his own strength - so why leave it in, if he's going to risk messing it up? He fixed that in the dance off. I see a lot of potential in him. He's not a natural dancer, but he's getting better all the time and won't be a fixture at the top of the leaderboard, so will come gradually.

Debbie IMO won't last the distance, though she does have wonderful arms. Johnnie's not looking like he's improved to me (though he's been really good to watch). Gemma I like but I worry about her public image. Mollie doesn't seem to me to have good technique and her partner hasn't built foundations in her footwork. Rest are any price you like.

https://www.oddschecker.com/tv/strictly-come-dancing/winner

There is probably some value in Joe, but I'm less excited about that than Davood at nearly twice the price. 30/1 (1/5) is superb. 28/1 (1/4 odds) even better, but we don't do Scuy and no one does BetEveryDay.

If we can get £20ew at 30/1, we should snaffle.

 Click to see full-size image.
« Last Edit: October 16, 2017, 07:05:02 PM by Tal » Logged

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« Reply #130524 on: October 16, 2017, 07:06:31 PM »

Oh, and many happy returns, Camel.
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tikay
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« Reply #130525 on: October 16, 2017, 07:15:52 PM »

Strictly Come Dancing

Doobs has come up with a fun one in Susan Calman. I don't see her winning, but she has a brilliant teacher, is having a lot of fun, is popular and all that counts for a lot in a show where the viewer voite matters. At 100/1, it's hard to have a bad bet.


I'm expecting the market to continue to go nuts for the top two in Alex and Aston. They are head and shoulders above everyone else and it's entirely possible one goes on to get 35+ every week for the next month and then 38+ every dance thereafter, walking away with it like Mark Ramprakash or Alesha Dixon.

But Aston isn't a very good ballroom dancer (his frame is poor and his footwork sketchy - he is a good dancer in the general sense, but he's not got the technique for ballroom or latin as yet), plus he looks like a ringer, where Ramps/Dixon were clearly amateurs who just happened to be able to dance. Alexandra is annoying me already, and I'm usually pretty tolerant when people are good. It was some jive though. No value in those two.

I'm looking for a grower: Strictly has typically rewarded the latecomers over the fast starters; people love a story. Oftentimes, it's someone who gets by week on week without causing much of a scene, but does enough to get votes with both judges and the public to survive.

Two lads stand out for me in this respect:

Joe McFadden is being given a raw deal in training from Katya, who's methods are unusual but designed to develop his muscles in the areas that will most help him down the line. She's training him for the later stages of the competition. Add to that she (with husband Neil) is an outstanding choreographer and you can see him being popular late on. He's very unpolished and, frankly, the fact he didn't do a great cha-cha-cha is no surprise; white middle aged blokes don't tend to look naturals early on at a dance like that. Matt Dawson's was appalling and Matt DiAngelo not much better (both went on to the final). I think Katya thinks he's got a lot of potential. He's got a bad one out of the way. Time will tell whether he does kick on. Worth noting he's had very difficult music: last weekend's dance was far too quick for him (there is a strict tempo for competition dancing, but SCD's producers eschew that in favour of "popular" songs in their own, normal time, when strict tempo is designed to be the right pace for Pro and Amateur alike.

Davood Ghodami has an excellent frame in ballroom, good feet and, well, he's a fit lad. We know that his partner Nadiya is a 10-dancer, which is the decathlon of dance (like athletics, it's for people who are brilliant at nothing, but who can do all disciplines well). Darren Bennett and Lilya Kopylova were 10-dancers (won with Jill Halfpenny and Darren Gough respectively). Nadiya's given him tough routines, with lots of content, though her choreography is a little naive at times for Strictly purposes, which is a bit of a concern (sometimes showing the lad off a bit is a good thing; sometimes, it's better to give him basic steps and let him show the judges he can dance). He got done for a lift on Saturday. That was because he picked Nadiya up too high (it wasn't intentional) - a mistake he's been making all week in training, just not knowing his own strength - so why leave it in, if he's going to risk messing it up? He fixed that in the dance off. I see a lot of potential in him. He's not a natural dancer, but he's getting better all the time and won't be a fixture at the top of the leaderboard, so will come gradually.

Debbie IMO won't last the distance, though she does have wonderful arms. Johnnie's not looking like he's improved to me (though he's been really good to watch). Gemma I like but I worry about her public image. Mollie doesn't seem to me to have good technique and her partner hasn't built foundations in her footwork. Rest are any price you like.

https://www.oddschecker.com/tv/strictly-come-dancing/winner

There is probably some value in Joe, but I'm less excited about that than Davood at nearly twice the price. 30/1 (1/5) is superb. 28/1 (1/4 odds) even better, but we don't do Scuy and no one does BetEveryDay.

If we can get £20ew at 30/1, we should snaffle.

 Click to see full-size image.


Most enjoyable write up, thanks Tal.

Tighty seems to be MIA (probably at tonight's game v WBA), so I tried to get on.

Only PP & BFSB offer 30/1 EW & we can't get on with either.

Best I can get is 25/1 win only with Betfred. Betty has a small amount at 28 or 29, but again, win only. 
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« Reply #130526 on: October 16, 2017, 07:32:17 PM »

£20ew with me at 30/1 (3 places 1/5)
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« Reply #130527 on: October 16, 2017, 07:39:38 PM »

£20ew with me at 30/1 (3 places 1/5)

Lovely, thank you very much.
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« Reply #130528 on: October 16, 2017, 07:42:24 PM »

Visiting teams believe they can go to Wembley and win though, that's the thing. Belief is mahoosive in this game. I know that all too well from watching Posh under McCann.

For those that can, Evens Bristol Rovers to finish above Poshies is a bet with Scuy.

Only clown firms have prices at the moment on Spurs v Palace, but for which it would have had to go up as a bet.

Great shout City hhhtyfytydtfysyftrr. At current rate they're on for 138 league goals. Obviously they can't keep up this pace, but the bet is probably no worse than a flip now. 29 through eight games is ridic.

Thank you, its certainly making pleasant viewing so far this season Smiley

Obv a long way to go but this squad just looks relentless at the moment, and Pep is hell bent on beating teams into a pulp (and flicking the finger to the media in the process). Injuries to key players will always be a concern, especially when the games start coming thick and fast over winter, but I see no let up in how we play......so that's Burnley winning 0-1 at Eastlands on Saturday Wink

Fred also has very decent sweats with Sane (YPOTY at 16s) and Jesus (POTY at 40s).

The less said about the Dele Ali rec, the better.....ahem.
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« Reply #130529 on: October 16, 2017, 07:47:19 PM »

£20ew with me at 30/1 (3 places 1/5)

Lovely, thank you very much.

I agree with Tal.  I agree so much I took less than half that price a couple of weeks ago.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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