Tips for Tikay

[Peter-27]

Two bets to suggest for today's Bahrain GP;

1) Points Finish - Nico Hulkenberg @ 6/4 (got a price boost to 31/20 on Ladbrokes) with various. A poor qualifying sees him start down in 17th, but actually he seems extremely quick this weekend and just suffered a poor lap when it mattered. I expect the German to fly through the tightly congested midfield, especially on a circuit where passes are possible like Bahrain. There's also a third DRS zone here for the first time which helps. This should be closer to EVS, maybe 5/4 or 11/10. Admittedly slim value.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-1/bahrain-grand-prix/points-finish

2) Last Driver To Make a Pit Stop - Valtteri Bottas @ 12/1 with 365. A new angle for me, this one. We saw in Australia that the front runners seemed really focussed on the extra point for fastest lap. Assuming that happens again, I expect Valtteri to pit late for a fresher set of tyres to get that extra point. Why him? In my mind, he'll be running 4th, and there's such a big gap between Ferrari/Mercedes and the rest of the field this weekend. Valtteri should have enough time in hand to pit, but maintain position. Interestingly, 365 have this market for a number of drivers and they're all 12/1 (apart from Gasly who is curiously 5/1 - not sure why). I can't really determine what price this "should" be, but Valtteri should have lower odds than everyone else.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-1/bahrain-grand-prix/bahrain-grand-prix-valtteri-bottas

[Killerkilsby]

 

[Peter-27]

Not getting much luck right now for F1 bets.

- Leclerc looked easily set for the win until a loss of battery power saw him drop down the order.
- Hulkenberg steamed through the field in the early stages and looked easily set for points until his engine cut out.
- Last pit stop went to .. erm .. not Bottas. I think it went to Vettel.

[bunnydas8888]

Not getting much luck right now for F1 bets.

- Leclerc looked easily set for the win until a loss of battery power saw him drop down the order.
- Hulkenberg steamed through the field in the early stages and looked easily set for points until his engine cut out.
- Last pit stop went to .. erm .. not Bottas. I think it went to Vettel.

Bit of a strange one with the Renault's?

[Peter-27]

Not getting much luck right now for F1 bets.

- Leclerc looked easily set for the win until a loss of battery power saw him drop down the order.
- Hulkenberg steamed through the field in the early stages and looked easily set for points until his engine cut out.
- Last pit stop went to .. erm .. not Bottas. I think it went to Vettel.

Bit of a strange one with the Renault's?

Extremely so. I initially thought fuel would make sense, but I'm not sure why that would cause the engine to suddenly shut off in that manner.

I guess we'll find out in due course.

[Rod Paradise]

Approaching the SPFL split there's a tempting bet on Bet356 & Skye (sorry couldn't find an offer on it for Fred), but it might not be a bad spot for others.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/scottish/premiership/top-goalscorer

Odsonne Edouard of Celtic is 5/2 for top scorer. He's 3 behind Morelos of Rangers, with 7 games remaining. However there are some interesting developments & stats.

We have 2 games before the split, the last 5 games are against the other top 6 teams.

For Edouard:
# Morelos has 3 games left after picking up a 4 match ban. He may not be happy on his return having picked up a club fine as well.
# Rangers are 13 points behind. Celtic are within 3 games of winning the league ending Rangers chances of winning anything.
# Edouard scores a higher %age of goals v the other teams in the top 6:
    Edouard 8 of 14 against top 6
    Morelos 7 of 17 against top 6 (*Morelos has scored a lot in the cups v top 6 though)
# Edouard has a faster goal scoring rate having been injured earlier in the season.
    Edouard 105 mins per goal - potential 630 minutes to play.
    Morelos 123 mins per goal - potential 270 minutes to play.

Against Edouard
# He could be rested especially when the league is won, there's a Cup semi & possibly final to play.
# Rumours he'll not start tonight's game after a pretty rough game v Rangers on Sunday where he was excellent.

The only other player in contention Cosgrove of Aberdeen has 14 goals, 133mins/goal & 5 goals v top 6 opposition. He's an outside chance but Aberdeen will need to play a lot better than recent form.

I'd have it about even chances between Edouard and Morelos, hence liking 5/2.

I've put a score on it. good luck if anyone backs it.

[hhyftrftdr]

Anyone else just received via email a £50 free bet from Hills? Doesn't appear to be any silly T's and C's attached to it either bar the usual/obvious.
 
On that note, any tips for the horses in the next few days? Maybe a juicy e/w punt on the National?

[Marky147]

Anyone else just received via email a £50 free bet from Hills? Doesn't appear to be any silly T's and C's attached to it either bar the usual/obvious.
 
On that note, any tips for the horses in the next few days? Maybe a juicy e/w punt on the National?

WAL

[Doobs]

Anyone else just received via email a £50 free bet from Hills? Doesn't appear to be any silly T's and C's attached to it either bar the usual/obvious.
 
On that note, any tips for the horses in the next few days? Maybe a juicy e/w punt on the National?

I think your final sentence explains why you still get free bets.  

Whatever you back, back win only.  Each way on free bets makes them bad value.   Say you back £25 e/w on a 5/1 chance at a fifth first 5 (this is Hills after all!).   If it places, you get even money on the place, so that is £25 at evens, so £50 back on a normal bet.   On a free bet, they deduct the stake from your winnings; hence you end up with nothing.   So you effectively have converted your £50 win only bet to a bad £25 one (as £50 deducted from winnings).

Back a horse win only at around 7/1 to 10/1 and you should be fine.   As an aside each way bets on horses at around 7/1 in the National are usually terrible value even without the offer.  The exception would be if you got a truckload of places.

[hhyftrftdr]

Ha you're not wrong Doobs, no chance my account will be restricted or closed due to horses anytime soon

I've not used Hills for ages so I'm probably down as a lapsed account, but a £50 effectively no strings free bet does seem overly generous compared to the usual fiver or tenner they might chuck your way to get you back on the site.

Someone else on here surely must have received the same? Maybe they somehow know I'm a total peasant?

[arbboy]

Ha you're not wrong Doobs, no chance my account will be restricted or closed due to horses anytime soon

I've not used Hills for ages so I'm probably down as a lapsed account, but a £50 effectively no strings free bet does seem overly generous compared to the usual fiver or tenner they might chuck your way to get you back on the site.

Someone else on here surely must have received the same? Maybe they somehow know I'm a total peasant?
[/quote

Someone will probably pay you £300 for your account!  win win

[Juperjiper]

Who actually buys hills accounts lol

[arbboy]

Who actually buys hills accounts lol

Serious question or taking the piss?  Not sure genuinely.  I used to rent one in 2007 for £50 a day fwiw.

[Juperjiper]

Serious question
I know people that would sell them as they don’t use them

[arbboy]

The 'right' people will buy them off the 'right' punters if you get my drift.  Price is up for discussion depending on previous on the account.