Independence Referendum

[DungBeetle]

I think the question of whether Scotland would be better off relies on a lot of assumptions.  Chiefly assumptions on oil revenue and the share of national debt that they would take on going forward (and indeed what rate they could borrow at as a smaller independent nation).

As an Englishman I am indifferent to whether you stay or go as I think depending on what assumptions you use you can make a credible case for Scotland being both a net contributor and a net burden to the UK, so I think it's marginal either way.  What I don't want to happen is for Cameron to bribe Scotland to stay in the Union by given Scottish taxpayers further preference over English taxpayers (more things along the lines of university fees and prescriptions).  I am worried Cameron will do this, because I don't think he wants to be the PM who presides over the breakup of the Union.

[Kmac84]

Two latest polls have yes on 48%

[Doobs]

Two latest polls have yes on 48%

I can't find these, seems you should smash the 6/1 on Betfair if true.

[Jon MW]

Two latest polls have yes on 48%

I can't find these, seems you should smash the 6/1 on Betfair if true.

It's a Panelbase poll - it's not particularly newsworthy as they've had the yes vote at 45-48% for months (excluding undecided). Most other polls haven't shown much of a change either.

The difference is largely down to the fact that they make a weighting towards people who live in Scotland (which is probably a good thing depending on the weight) - but also a weighting towards people who were born in Scotland (which is a bit more dubious).

It might seem close - but it's barely moved and even at it's highest, this close to the referendum - No still wins.

[MintTrav]

Two latest polls have yes on 48%

I can't find these, seems you should smash the 6/1 on Betfair if true.

It's a Panelbase poll - it's not particularly newsworthy as they've had the yes vote at 45-48% for months (excluding undecided). Most other polls haven't shown much of a change either.

The difference is largely down to the fact that they make a weighting towards people who live in Scotland (which is probably a good thing depending on the weight) - but also a weighting towards people who were born in Scotland (which is a bit more dubious).

It might seem close - but it's barely moved and even at it's highest, this close to the referendum - No still wins.

I believe it has always been weighted 100% towards people who live in Scotland.

[Ironside]

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/category/scotland

[Kmac84]

The ICM poll was the only one that got the 2011 election results right, so they have reliable form.   Every other brit pollster had the SLAB up by double figures. 

Also another massive  coup for Yes was the coup of the eminent historian, professor and knight of the relm Sir Tom Devine.  This will imo, translate in a number of undecideds and soft Catholic voting no's who may have listened to the bile spouted by George Galloway switching to yes. 

[Kmac84]

Radical Independence Campaign have released results from their mass canvasses across the country.

18012 returns

Yes - 43.6%
No - 25.3%
Dk - 31.1%

Excluding undecideds
Yes - 63.4%
No - 36.6%

[Kmac84]

http://new.livestream.com/accounts/8823479/events/3306152

[Doobs]

Radical Independence Campaign have released results from their mass canvasses across the country.

18012 returns

Yes - 43.6%
No - 25.3%
Dk - 31.1%

Excluding undecideds
Yes - 63.4%
No - 36.6%

http://radicalindependence.org/2014/08/19/radical-independence-campaign-18k-canvass-sample-released/

So they canvassed lots of the poorest people in Scotland and discovered they wanted their circumstances to change?  You not wonder why the official polling companies didn't think to do that? 

I'd be equally sceptical if the Conservative Party started presenting results from their Surrey canvass as somehow relevant to the National vote.

[Ironside]

Radical Independence Campaign have released results from their mass canvasses across the country.

18012 returns

Yes - 43.6%
No - 25.3%
Dk - 31.1%

Excluding undecideds
Yes - 63.4%
No - 36.6%

http://radicalindependence.org/2014/08/19/radical-independence-campaign-18k-canvass-sample-released/

So they canvassed lots of the poorest people in Scotland and discovered they wanted their circumstances to change?  You not wonder why the official polling companies didn't think to do that? 

I'd be equally sceptical if the Conservative Party started presenting results from their Surrey canvass as somehow relevant to the National vote.

will you stop ruining good conspiracies with facts please

[Kmac84]

Radical Independence Campaign have released results from their mass canvasses across the country.

18012 returns

Yes - 43.6%
No - 25.3%
Dk - 31.1%

Excluding undecideds
Yes - 63.4%
No - 36.6%

http://radicalindependence.org/2014/08/19/radical-independence-campaign-18k-canvass-sample-released/

So they canvassed lots of the poorest people in Scotland and discovered they wanted their circumstances to change?  You not wonder why the official polling companies didn't think to do that? 

I'd be equally sceptical if the Conservative Party started presenting results from their Surrey canvass as somehow relevant to the National vote.

You ever wonder why the polling companies only ever question people who ask to be canvassed?  The key to winning this referendum was always to get the disenfrnachised out out and get them engage. 

[Kmac84]

Drew McGowan @TheRealMcGowan
Follow
Labour's Andy Burnham says the NHS is being privatised. Labour's Alistair Darling denies this is the case. Who do we believe? #BBCIndyRef
9:02 PM - 25 Aug 2014 Paisley, Renfrewshire, United Kingdom

[arbboy]

The current odds suggest its 87% likely Scots vote NO.  What are the jock's on this thread view of NO being this likely to occur?

[Somerled]

I wouldn't say it's as one sided as that. Looks like the Yessers may get about 40% or so.

I'm a definite No for several reasons.

I don't actually care what flag I'm deemed to be under. I would be far more in favour of some kind of Federal structure for the UK, giving all the regions more control over their own destiny. As a Highlander, being fully governed from Edinburgh would be just as bad as Westminster - as has been proved by a number of SNP policies in recent years.

The 3 areas I have expertise in - the law, making and selling beer, and as an exporter, the SNP's proposals are either daft, dangerous or incompetent. For the areas I lack expertise in I don't really have a strong opinion.

There are many problems with our country but there is absolutely zero evidence that Independence is the cure. If you start off, as most Nationalists do, with the premise that "Independence is the answer" then you are bound to reach a flawed conclusion. Independence is not some kind of magical panacea which will cure all known ills - and don't even get me started on the nonsense spouted on wingsoverscotland, bellacaledonia etc. etc.

Also, the behaviour of the Yes campaign has been disgraceful. Only dealing with stuff I've seen and heard with my own eyes and ears :- Telling Polish citizens that they have to vote Yes or they will get sent "back home", If we lose this vote "I'll take it to the next level" (meaning violent protest), referring to No voters as "cowards" and we should vote Yes because of the Clearances. That's just stuff I've encountered in the last week. Oh, and Scottish people have a naturally better sense of morality than the rest of the UK.  Is this the positive vision for a Brave New Scotland?

Yes it's easy to persuade folk who feel they have nothing to lose to vote Yes, those of us who are responsible for employing others have to take a more considered approach. I think it's a huge gamble and the potential reward is tiny (even with a Yes I don't think that much would change)  and the potential risk is too large. As a gambler it's a fairly straightforward decision.