Independence Referendum

[Ironside]

the no campaign is far enough ahead that's if it was a boxing match it would be stopped by now

my news feed is full of the same propaganda from the same few yes voters every day and its turning more and more undecided against them

the no campaign is very quite in comparison but they are out there and the last debate was a farce king alec totally fecked it up for the yes campaign

the yes campaign would of had a better chance if king alec hadn't alienated a lot of pro indy voters during his 2nd stint as a leader of the SNP

[BorntoBubble]

If I was in the No camp i wouldnt want to be keeping it quite that yes was doing better than it appears.

In a lot of these cases, the people voting no will just leave it as they are no plussed either way, but the people fighting for change will be a lot more vocal and be proud to be voting for change etc.

Its what seems to happens in elections all the time, BNP get an EU seat and suddenly people sit up and go oh shit because i didnt vote these numptys got a seat. Same with UKIP/Lib Dems etc

Again im not bothered either way but in a betfair market that has had over 1 million matched and is well formed i would doubt it is out by much!

[Kmac84]

Kmac - you have to step back from the politically-energised environment you're in. An awful lot of people in Scotland will have views which are no stronger than 'I'd quite like it if we were independent'/'Don't think independence is a good idea'.

They're not going to be reading press releases on the SNP website, or scouring for the meaning in every new poll. They would watch the debate though, and Salmond seemed to come off worst (judging from the moves on Betfair). Little else will matter until the next debate. Salmond could move the needle then if he gets all Archie Gemmill v Holland on Darling's arse.

Maybe so, but then many have to step back from the views they see in a complicit media.  

[TightEnd]

I don't care what happens either way, but to try and suggest that the "Yes" campaign is somehow on level pegging or even ahead is ridiculous.

And you know this how?  Are you on the streets campaigning, are you attending meetings all over Scotland or chapping doors asking folk what they really think? 

the whole of the polling industry and the betfair market is massively wrong?

In 2011 the pollsters told us Labour had a double digit leade depending on which poll you went by Labour were apparently between 11 - 15 points clear.  We all know how that worked out. 

"Survation, it should be noted, has been one of the pollsters that has until now been recording the best figures for YES and in recent months has hardly been showing any movement. The key points:

    If the referendum were held today, Scots would vote to remain in the UK – by a large margin: 57% would vote ‘No’, 43% would vote ‘Yes’

    Lead for ‘No’ goes from 6 points to 14 points in less than a week, after months of very little change in independence referendum polls

    This is the highest ‘No’ vote – and the biggest lead over ‘Yes’ – seen in a Survation poll since February.

    Despite ‘Yes’ voters being more likely to have watched the debate (73% watched it compared to 66% of No voters), Darling still emerges as the clear winner - 53% of those who watched the debate thought Darling won, with 28% selecting Salmond as the winner

It really looks as though Tuesday night was a narrative changer and YES has a mountain to climb."

mike smithson

[Kmac84]

the no campaign is far enough ahead that's if it was a boxing match it would be stopped by now

my news feed is full of the same propaganda from the same few yes voters every day and its turning more and more undecided against them

the no campaign is very quite in comparison but they are out there and the last debate was a farce king alec totally fecked it up for the yes campaign

the yes campaign would of had a better chance if king alec hadn't alienated a lot of pro indy voters during his 2nd stint as a leader of the SNP

You don't half talk pish btw, you seem to live your life through the internet.  Have you been out and about and doing the grassroots work the yes campaign have been doing?  

I have yet to see an active grassroots no campaign, they had vote no bordes which was funded by the UK gov and registered in London.  They have Better Together who can't seem to muster any more than 4 or 5 activists up at a time, they have United With Labour which seems to be a one man show for Gordon Brown, I was at a meeting other day where he was speaking and he was a wreck, simply because he thought he was going to be speaking to a group of pensioners and when he kept talking about pensions the audience never took any of his bullshit he was firmly put in his place.  

Where is the evidence that Salmond has alienated alot of pro indy voters?  

Are you so stupid not to realise its not about Alex Salmond, I don't particularly like the way he comes across but he is a far better politician/statesman than many of the others who go before him.  I won't be voting for him in 2016 in an independent Scotland that much is for sure.  

[Kmac84]

I don't care what happens either way, but to try and suggest that the "Yes" campaign is somehow on level pegging or even ahead is ridiculous.

And you know this how?  Are you on the streets campaigning, are you attending meetings all over Scotland or chapping doors asking folk what they really think? 

the whole of the polling industry and the betfair market is massively wrong?

In 2011 the pollsters told us Labour had a double digit leade depending on which poll you went by Labour were apparently between 11 - 15 points clear.  We all know how that worked out. 

"Survation, it should be noted, has been one of the pollsters that has until now been recording the best figures for YES and in recent months has hardly been showing any movement. The key points:

    If the referendum were held today, Scots would vote to remain in the UK – by a large margin: 57% would vote ‘No’, 43% would vote ‘Yes’

    Lead for ‘No’ goes from 6 points to 14 points in less than a week, after months of very little change in independence referendum polls

    This is the highest ‘No’ vote – and the biggest lead over ‘Yes’ – seen in a Survation poll since February.

    Despite ‘Yes’ voters being more likely to have watched the debate (73% watched it compared to 66% of No voters), Darling still emerges as the clear winner - 53% of those who watched the debate thought Darling won, with 28% selecting Salmond as the winner

It really looks as though Tuesday night was a narrative changer and YES has a mountain to climb."

mike smithson

http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-only-stat-that-matters/#more-59416

[Ironside]

the no campaign is far enough ahead that's if it was a boxing match it would be stopped by now

my news feed is full of the same propaganda from the same few yes voters every day and its turning more and more undecided against them

the no campaign is very quite in comparison but they are out there and the last debate was a farce king alec totally fecked it up for the yes campaign

the yes campaign would of had a better chance if king alec hadn't alienated a lot of pro indy voters during his 2nd stint as a leader of the SNP

You don't half talk pish btw, you seem to live your life through the internet.  Have you been out and about and doing the grassroots work the yes campaign have been doing? 

I have yet to see an active grassroots no campaign, they had vote no bordes which was funded by the UK gov and registered in London.  They have Better Together who can't seem to muster any more than 4 or 5 activists up at a time, they have United With Labour which seems to be a one man show for Gordon Brown, I was at a meeting other day where he was speaking and he was a wreck, simply because he thought he was going to be speaking to a group of pensioners and when he kept talking about pensions the audience never took any of his bullshit he was firmly put in his place. 

Where is the evidence that Salmond has alienated alot of pro indy voters? 

Are you so stupid not to realise its not about Alex Salmond, I don't particularly like the way he comes across but he is a far better politician/statesman than many of the others who go before him.  I won't be voting for him in 2016 in an independent Scotland that much is for sure. 

he has alienated me for a start I was a bit indy supporter on the 80s and 90s now I am an undecided desperately trying to find a way to support the yes campaign but not finding one
but also finding it hard to vote no as its against my beliefs

and I am not alone

I now hundreds of no supporters and I know hundreds of yes campaigners and I get bullshit from both sides it what has become a stupid campaign full of the most ridiculous statements

my favourite from the yes campaign was that David Cameron was recently in Shetlands making sure that the WORLDS largest ever oil field just off the coast was being kept secret till after the election

its so easy as a campaigner to get taken into by the roar of emotion that you are experiencing amongst like minded supporters


no matter what anyone says if there is a YES vote next month the first Scottish government will be SNP and they will destroy some of the things
I don't want to be seen destroyed and they will never be recovered

[Kmac84]

the no campaign is far enough ahead that's if it was a boxing match it would be stopped by now

my news feed is full of the same propaganda from the same few yes voters every day and its turning more and more undecided against them

the no campaign is very quite in comparison but they are out there and the last debate was a farce king alec totally fecked it up for the yes campaign

the yes campaign would of had a better chance if king alec hadn't alienated a lot of pro indy voters during his 2nd stint as a leader of the SNP

You don't half talk pish btw, you seem to live your life through the internet.  Have you been out and about and doing the grassroots work the yes campaign have been doing? 

I have yet to see an active grassroots no campaign, they had vote no bordes which was funded by the UK gov and registered in London.  They have Better Together who can't seem to muster any more than 4 or 5 activists up at a time, they have United With Labour which seems to be a one man show for Gordon Brown, I was at a meeting other day where he was speaking and he was a wreck, simply because he thought he was going to be speaking to a group of pensioners and when he kept talking about pensions the audience never took any of his bullshit he was firmly put in his place. 

Where is the evidence that Salmond has alienated alot of pro indy voters? 

Are you so stupid not to realise its not about Alex Salmond, I don't particularly like the way he comes across but he is a far better politician/statesman than many of the others who go before him.  I won't be voting for him in 2016 in an independent Scotland that much is for sure. 

he has alienated me for a start I was a bit indy supporter on the 80s and 90s now I am an undecided desperately trying to find a way to support the yes campaign but not finding one
but also finding it hard to vote no as its against my beliefs

and I am not alone

I now hundreds of no supporters and I know hundreds of yes campaigners and I get bullshit from both sides it what has become a stupid campaign full of the most ridiculous statements

my favourite from the yes campaign was that David Cameron was recently in Shetlands making sure that the WORLDS largest ever oil field just off the coast was being kept secret till after the election

its so easy as a campaigner to get taken into by the roar of emotion that you are experiencing amongst like minded supporters


no matter what anyone says if there is a YES vote next month the first Scottish government will be SNP and they will destroy some of the things
I don't want to be seen destroyed and they will never be recovered

Well don't listen to him, do the research yourself.  Did you have a read at the Wee Blue Book I posted the link to? 

The evidence would show that once people have attended one of the numerous debates and have more information they are likely to vote yes. 

As for the next Government there is a good chance that it will be the SNP in an independent Scotland, personally I don't think it will.  I would expect an invigorated Labour, who hold traditional labour values.  Further, as part of the constitution I think we will have a much better voting system which will see a parliament more representative of the people.  Just now we have a watered down version of PR, the majority on the yes side are firmly in favour of a better electoral system, one of the good things about the Scottish Parliament - and there are many, despite the lack of powers - is the consensual approach taken to politics by all parties, I think this will become stronger post independence. 

[AndrewT]

As the incumbant position, all the Noes have to do is spread enough fear, uncertainty and doubt about Yes to make people wary of voting for Yes. It makes Salmond's job very difficult as any slip-up (like the lack of Plan B in the debate) can be picked up on and magnified. It matters not one jot how many different positive reasons Yes try and counteract with, No just have to keep mentioning the one mistake.

They don't even have to come up with any reasons why staying part of the UK is a good thing at all, they just have to throw enough mud until some of it sticks.

[Kmac84]

As the incumbant position, all the Noes have to do is spread enough fear, uncertainty and doubt about Yes to make people wary of voting for Yes. It makes Salmond's job very difficult as any slip-up (like the lack of Plan B in the debate) can be picked up on and magnified. It matters not one jot how many different positive reasons Yes try and counteract with, No just have to keep mentioning the one mistake.

They don't even have to come up with any reasons why staying part of the UK is a good thing at all, they just have to throw enough mud until some of it sticks.

Why would you ever disclose your plan b?  All that does is weaken your negotiating power.   the majority of people I speak to don't particularly care about the currency, it's a myth perpetuated by the media and the no campaign.  But there is enough independent evidence to show that a currency union is in the best interest of both sides. 

Have a look at the transcript of what Mark Carney said yesterday, he pretty much says that B.o.E always has a plan b and that its not good practice to discuss that in public. 

Take a look at this http://wingsoverscotland.com/more-ordinary-voters/

[Boba Fett]

Im getting the impression the no vote is gonna win, which is weird because most of the people I know/have asked have said they will probably vote yes but I think itll take a huge effort to get a yes vote through

[nirvana]

I'd really like you to be right Kmac as it would be so interesting to watch events unfurl in the year or two after independence.

The fact that yes isn't a landslide shows the lack of 'self esteem' (for want of a better expression) that is likely to dictate a win for the noes

[Kmac84]

The fact that yes isn't a landslide shows the lack of 'self esteem' (for want of a better expression) that is likely to dictate a win for the noes

The first part I agree with.  It is shameful that many people have been  brow beaten nto believing they get something beter as part of the UK. 

[DungBeetle]

Perhaps they do get something out of being in the UK.  Just because you don't agree doesn't mean that they are necessarily wrong and have been sold a lie.

[Kmac84]

Perhaps they do get something out of being in the UK.  Just because you don't agree doesn't mean that they are necessarily wrong and have been sold a lie.

What do we get?  I have asked this question of many campaigners on the no side and not one of them has given me an answer. 

Just watched the Leader of the no campaign on BBC1 Scotland he was asked in an independent Scotland what was the best currency situation, he couldn't answer the question.  Funny old game.