Independence Referendum

[TightEnd]

Bit unfair to label rbs as a Scottish problem. It was the London boys trading the exotics!

HBOS over-leveraged in domestic lending as well, particularly self-certification mortgages

RBOS went nuts in the US

in general though, i do disagree with curnow's point that it was a Scottish bank problem, though they were part of it and remain over-geared

dont mean its a Scotish problem , it caused by selling mortgages by USA banks that knew they would default , & then taking bets on hem defaulting
the problem now for Scotland is the size of the banks , they need to be protected by the BOE & with independance expect they would move their head office to London

yes because to trade they need a lender of last resort behind them

hence RBOS has to be part of any deal negotiations post a Yes vote.

It's balance sheet is incompatible with independence, from what i understand (happy to be proven wrong)

[Kmac84]

Was that in line with your expectations kmac? Momentum still with yes or is this a disappointment?

I never had any expectations I heard from someone who works at yes scotland they expected it to be more inline with a yes vote but then I read a simiar story on twitter. 

As the work was done before the panic set in, I'm not too sure what impact that has had.  In all honesty it seems to have reinvigourated the positive case of independence, even the undecideds I know were annoyed by the flying visit today. 

STV offered to stage a debate tonight between Miliband and Sturgeon one accepted and one declined, I'll let you decide who that was. 

They can run but they can't hide. 

[Teacake]

Also, update on what they have attached to my house!!!! I am bottom flat!

 

Keep us updated they genuinely make me laugh.

If it's any consolation I have the tiniest Yes sign in one of my windows and my Mrs was getting abused by the 8 year olds in our street last night, it was quite funny but she was reversing out the drive way at the time and nearly knocked the little fuckers over. Thing is she had no clue what they were shouting at her and didn't realise until I told her when she got back.

[OverTheBorder]

Also, update on what they have attached to my house!!!! I am bottom flat!

 

Keep us updated they genuinely make me laugh.

If it's any consolation I have the tiniest Yes sign in one of my windows and my Mrs was getting abused by the 8 year olds in our street last night, it was quite funny but she was reversing out the drive way at the time and nearly knocked the little fuckers over. Thing is she had no clue what they were shouting at her and didn't realise until I told her when she got back.

Not even joking

[OverTheBorder]

The view from my kitchen window

[doubleup]

Bit unfair to label rbs as a Scottish problem. It was the London boys trading the exotics!

HBOS over-leveraged in domestic lending as well, particularly self-certification mortgages

RBOS went nuts in the US

in general though, i do disagree with curnow's point that it was a Scottish bank problem, though they were part of it and remain over-geared

dont mean its a Scotish problem , it caused by selling mortgages by USA banks that knew they would default , & then taking bets on hem defaulting
the problem now for Scotland is the size of the banks , they need to be protected by the BOE & with independance expect they would move their head office to London

yes because to trade they need a lender of last resort behind them

hence RBOS has to be part of any deal negotiations post a Yes vote.

It's balance sheet is incompatible with independence, from what i understand (happy to be proven wrong)

They don't need to physically relocate to London, they just need the relevant companies to be regulated by rUK.

The PLC I used to work for wasn't actually regulated but had various subsidiaries regulated all over the world.

[Teacake]

Incredible scenes OTB, you better hurry up and get a charge in that phone though

[Doobs]

Bit unfair to label rbs as a Scottish problem. It was the London boys trading the exotics!

HBOS over-leveraged in domestic lending as well, particularly self-certification mortgages

RBOS went nuts in the US

in general though, i do disagree with curnow's point that it was a Scottish bank problem, though they were part of it and remain over-geared

dont mean its a Scotish problem , it caused by selling mortgages by USA banks that knew they would default , & then taking bets on hem defaulting
the problem now for Scotland is the size of the banks , they need to be protected by the BOE & with independance expect they would move their head office to London

The bank was run by a couple of Scots, and the was in Scotland at the time of the bad decisions including the worst one which was the ABN Ambro takeover.   The main fault was mainly down to the board's bad decisions, nobody forced then to buy worthless securities from the US either.  And nobody forced them to tell a bunch of bare faced lies to their investors either.  Blaming it on people in the US or London isn't where the buck should really stop in my view.

Of course it became a UK problem afterwards as we are all part of the same country and have to take our share of any problems that happen there.

[Kmac84]

Bit unfair to label rbs as a Scottish problem. It was the London boys trading the exotics!

HBOS over-leveraged in domestic lending as well, particularly self-certification mortgages

RBOS went nuts in the US

in general though, i do disagree with curnow's point that it was a Scottish bank problem, though they were part of it and remain over-geared

dont mean its a Scotish problem , it caused by selling mortgages by USA banks that knew they would default , & then taking bets on hem defaulting
the problem now for Scotland is the size of the banks , they need to be protected by the BOE & with independance expect they would move their head office to London

The bank was run by a couple of Scots, and the was in Scotland at the time of the bad decisions including the worst one which was the ABN Ambro takeover.   The main fault was mainly down to the board's bad decisions, nobody forced then to buy worthless securities from the US either.  And nobody forced them to tell a bunch of bare faced lies to their investors either.  Blaming it on people in the US or London isn't where the buck should really stop in my view.

Of course it became a UK problem afterwards as we are all part of the same country and have to take our share of any problems that happen there.

Geography doesnt seem to be a strong point of better together either.  They seem to think the UK is a country. 

[Somerled]

Bit unfair to label rbs as a Scottish problem. It was the London boys trading the exotics!

HBOS over-leveraged in domestic lending as well, particularly self-certification mortgages

RBOS went nuts in the US

in general though, i do disagree with curnow's point that it was a Scottish bank problem, though they were part of it and remain over-geared

dont mean its a Scotish problem , it caused by selling mortgages by USA banks that knew they would default , & then taking bets on hem defaulting
the problem now for Scotland is the size of the banks , they need to be protected by the BOE & with independance expect they would move their head office to London

The bank was run by a couple of Scots, and the was in Scotland at the time of the bad decisions including the worst one which was the ABN Ambro takeover.   The main fault was mainly down to the board's bad decisions, nobody forced then to buy worthless securities from the US either.  And nobody forced them to tell a bunch of bare faced lies to their investors either.  Blaming it on people in the US or London isn't where the buck should really stop in my view.

Of course it became a UK problem afterwards as we are all part of the same country and have to take our share of any problems that happen there.

Geography doesnt seem to be a strong point of better together either.  They seem to think the UK is a country. 

It is.

[Kmac84]

Right, thats that sorted then.  Give me strength. 

[OverTheBorder]

I have wanted to summarise why I am voting no, but have been pretty manic and not had a lot of time to do anything tangible.  I entered this debate on Saturday night at 2am after 15 vodkas so my eloquence was not as I would have hoped.  I had been an interested spectator to the thread and it did resonate with a lot of the problems I have found with this campaign and what I have viewed on social media and through discussions on the street.

I should start by explaining about myself to properly show "Conflicts of Interest". I have then broken this down into 4 main topics.  Why I am voting no?  My issues with the SNP.  My concerns over social media and this referendum and referendum timing.  I may be wrong on some points, but it is my understanding of what I see.

What are my circumstances?

I do not own property, I live in a council house (which I have a right to buy for the next 2-3 years).  I have no savings other than with a Credit Union as I am a strong advocate of Community finance due to issues with the banking collapse and how that had a huge impact on my life.  So mortgage and financial impacts have no baring on me directly, and I have no real need to be concerned by "scare mongering".  I work in the pensions industry as both a Trustee and a Consultant for various firms.  My own industry will likely do reasonably well out of this, as uncertainty leads to questions which leads to a need for advice, which leads to revenue.  Longer term there would be concerns as to how accessible the English market would be in a Non Union.  So that is broadly where I am coming from.

Why I am Voting No

I am Trustee Representative for 7 Scottish firms, my Company for considerably more.  This gives me a paternalistic feeling over 1000's of Scottish Pension Scheme members.  The firms vary across 7 distinct industries.  I have a duty to consider the Employer covenant for each of these Employers.  3-4 years ago during the financial crisis, the pension Scheme debt was crippling hundreds of firms which had already been decimated by the downturn.  There was no degree of comfort in any sector, these were difficult negotiations and it was a harrowing time for industry.  The PPF was expanding at a substantial rate and was struggling to cope with all the S120 notices confirming insolvency.

However, in 2014, the position has gone from strength to strength.  I am speaking to MD's and FD's of leading Scottish companies who are telling me how good business is, explaining the upturn in the demand for building supplies, further use of the "entertainment pound" and consumer confidence returning.  This is not things I have read in the daily mail, this is real information gathered from Company Accounts and speaking to people in business.  Equities are improving vastly, the yields are holding steady and all this is beating mortality.  Most Schemes that were 80% funded are now showing close to full funding.  This is reducing pension costs and the Company positions I am seeing are all extremely strong.

Conversely, the PPF is actually struggling for work at the moment.  They are actually debating I believe the fact insolvencies are significantly below expectation. Ferguson shipyard is one of a handful of S120 cases this year.  To me this points to the fact that the Country is turning things round.  I think the timing of the referendum is poor as most people will still be feeling the pinch of the credit crunch.  Yes, we have social issues to deal with, but with the exception of Trident going, I do not see what else Westminster will not deal with.  Knowing what markets and recession can do to Scottish business first hand, I cannot with a clear conscience take this risk.

I reiterate that is not from the Daily Mail, that is from my own experience sitting in front of business's in this country.

My Issues with the SNP?

I only just signed up to the Better Together campaign, I have not read much of their literature and I do not care for propaganda.  So these are my own observations.

From my viewing of Alex Salmonds he has over sold a few main issues, namely:

Illegal Wars
Trident
Bedroom Tax

The issues that sit most strongly in his speeches are the issues that have been filling the Tabloids for the last few years.  To me this seems to be a cynical attempt to attract voters on marquee issues.  I do not strongly believe Alex is that passionate about these points, I believe he is using these issues as vote winners.  The Manifesto seems to me to have been written to attract soft voters who will not engage with the process and will have a limited grasp of politics.  Had his manifesto concentrated on fighting the scaremongering and looked like a genuine attempt for transparency, I may have voted yes.

The credentials of the SNP are also a concern to me.  They made unprecedented gains in the last election but the party lacks political heavyweights.  For all their faults, I trust certain names, I distrust others,  The SNP who made the economics gaffe sort of summed this up to me.  I just do not trust them to run my country.

I also do not understand how the SNP can say they will not enter illegal wars.  How do they know how they would have reacted 14 years ago following September 11.  These are words.  If George Bush phoned Alex Salmonds as Prime Minister of Scotland following September 11 and said Alex, we need you.  How can he state categorically he would not have made the same decision.  These are hollow words by people untested with the real decisions, I can take no credence in these policies.

The bedroom tax will likely get repealed anyway, any awful piece of legislation that will go the way of the Poll Tax.

Trident I struggle with.  Not having a nuclear deterrent in our modern world worries me, unless everyone signs up to it.  However, I do not want it on the Clyde, but then it has to go somewhere, so where does it go?  Anywhere North of Southampton and if it goes off we are all fecked anyway, not sure if I would prefer to go with the blast or nuclear winter, probably the blast!

Social Media and the Referendum

This is the first campaign I have seen that Social Media is impacting in a huge way.  FB is so much slicker than at the last General Election, more can be done, sharing can be picked up at the touch of a button.  There is so much miss information being shared that I believe votes are getting swayed by bad information which is hugely troubling in such an important vote.  This goes on both sides.  An example of one I saw earlier:

I can't wait to be independent and get rid of the Queen....errrrmmmm your white paper states she will remain.

I have seen many instances of misinformation from both sides.  I wish we lived in a world that people researched and voted on the issues important to them and fully understood what was happening.  It will never happen but this is such a huge decision.

There is also the "unpatriotic" angle.  I do not believe anyone with a Saltire in their window loves Scotland more than I do.  I joke about leaving but I will stay and fight the good fight if it is passed.  The new powers will make me feel no more Scottish, I could not be any more Scottish, so it will not be entering my thought pattern.  However, it may sway others.  I just think in such a large decision it needs to be head not heart.

Then their is the trolls.  Those that are so vociferous in their views that they poison any logical debate.  I find many on this thread debate well.  For example Rod Paradise makes a number of the points KMac makes well, without resulting in name calling.  This is the time for debate not he who shouts loudest wins.  People like this are stifling real debate and stopping people from making informed decisions.

The timing of the referendum

I appreciate the timing is not the fault of the SNP.  However, due to a serious of events, a possibility for a Yes vote has emerged for I sense the first time in my lifetime.  The events are:

A Tory Government
An Awful No Campaign Team
The wind down for a massive financial crisis
Fall out of Iraq War
Simple cheap wins like Bedroom Tax

If a Yes vote does not win at this election.  It will never win.  I note KMac stated he would continue to campaign for it but really?  This is practically an open goal.  If you cannot convince 50% of the voters now, you never will.  I strongly believe this is not the strong will of the majority of Scottish people, but just opportune timing.

These are my views.  I would like to understand why others are voting.  This does not need to be a painful thread to read.

PEACE

[Woodsey]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/scottish-independence-blow-to-yes-campaign-as-bp-and-standard-life-claim-breakaway-will-harm-business-9724874.html

[doubleup]

Bit unfair to label rbs as a Scottish problem. It was the London boys trading the exotics!

HBOS over-leveraged in domestic lending as well, particularly self-certification mortgages

RBOS went nuts in the US

in general though, i do disagree with curnow's point that it was a Scottish bank problem, though they were part of it and remain over-geared

dont mean its a Scotish problem , it caused by selling mortgages by USA banks that knew they would default , & then taking bets on hem defaulting
the problem now for Scotland is the size of the banks , they need to be protected by the BOE & with independance expect they would move their head office to London

The bank was run by a couple of Scots, and the was in Scotland at the time of the bad decisions including the worst one which was the ABN Ambro takeover.   The main fault was mainly down to the board's bad decisions, nobody forced then to buy worthless securities from the US either.  And nobody forced them to tell a bunch of bare faced lies to their investors either.  Blaming it on people in the US or London isn't where the buck should really stop in my view.

Of course it became a UK problem afterwards as we are all part of the same country and have to take our share of any problems that happen there.

The regulators that let the banks get away with all their misdeeds were in Canary Wharf.  As there have not been mass accusations of people lying to them, its safe to assume it was a UK problem.

 

[kinboshi]

Regarding daily mail it is irrelevant where it comes from if it is a quote. A newspaper isn't going to make up a direct quote. Arbboy can get the quotes from elsewhere if it really bothers people but that seems a waste of time frankly.

Not talking about this particular situation (I haven't read the quotes being talked about), but the tabloids DO make up quotes, they DO quote people out of context so that the meaning is warped beyond all recognition, and they often omit any quotes that go against the agenda they have behind their article.  It's naiive to think they don't.