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Poll
Question: Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?
Yes - because it would be better for the Scots
Yes - because the rest of the UK would be better off without the Scots
Don't really know
Don't care
No, the Union is a good thing

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Author Topic: Independence Referendum  (Read 189918 times)
DungBeetle
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« Reply #885 on: September 10, 2014, 06:50:05 PM »

Was that in line with your expectations kmac? Momentum still with yes or is this a disappointment?
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curnow
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« Reply #886 on: September 10, 2014, 06:50:19 PM »

This paragraph from Credit Suisse should scare those in Scotland who might want independence from Great Britain:

Risk of an economic crisis: In our opinion Scotland would fall into a deep recession. We believe deposit flight is both highly likely and highly problematic (with banks assets of 12x GDP) and should the BoE move to guarantee Scottish deposits, we expect it to extract a high fiscal and regulatory price (probably insisting on a primary budget surplus). The re-domiciling of the financial sector and UK public service jobs, as well as a legal dispute over North Sea oil, would further accelerate any downturn. In our opinion, as North Sea oil production slows, we estimate that the non-oil economy would need a 10% to 20% devaluation to restore competitiveness. This would require a 5% to 10% fall in wages, driven by a steep rise in unemployment.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/this-one-paragraph-should-scare-the-heck-out-of-people-who-want-scottish-independence-2014-9#ixzz3CvwpGW84

another interesting read is Scotland and Sterling — whose currency is it anyway?
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2014/09/10/1963991/scotland-and-sterling-whose-currency-is-it-anyway/

just dont understand why Alex Salmond dont tell the truth , just wishing he wins this now just to show what a lieing git he is , know when rUK refuse to agree monortory union he will blame UK goverment but we could never agree that level of risk with the Scottish banks , they done their best to bankrupt the country in 2008

UK banks excluding Scotland in 2012 was 4xGDP , Iceland/Ireland & Greece was 7.5GDP when their banks collapse


« Last Edit: September 10, 2014, 06:51:54 PM by curnow » Logged
redarmi
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« Reply #887 on: September 10, 2014, 06:53:02 PM »

It is indeed hard to believe that there is no credible plan ahead of the vote.

It should have been stated clearly what the plan was (with Westminster approval) both in terms of currency, assets and debt.   At that point the voters can decide.  I'm pretty sure this would have given some of the "no" voters the confidence to vote differently as well.

What rational person would risk the value of their house/savings/pensions etc etc by voting yes with so little upside yet so much potential downside when such fundamental policies are not cast in stone before the vote?  Just makes no sense at all.  Maybe the value of Tennant's super is more important than these issues to the yes crew! Grin

I know you find it hard to believe mark but there is more to life(and this vote) than economics and money.  Self determination is very important and not everybody wants things like the lowest taxes, they value things like education, healthcare  and community and given independence they will be able to determine those priorities for themselves democratically rather than be lumped in with a country which, for a large part votes for parties that are eroding all of those things on a daily basis.

I appreciate this but at what price are you willing to risk your personal wealth to get this and the uncertainty it brings?  The Scottish are well known as being more risk averse/tight/canny than your average nation with their money (whether this is just a myth or not that's up for debate elsewhere) so i just find it amazing how they are willing to take such financial risks personally and collectively to get this.  I have no problem if they want to gamble the bank on it good luck to them.

Huge parts of the Scottish electorate have no personal wealth and they are seeing their rights, benefits and opportunities eroded at the expense of protecting the wealth of what is basically a minority of middle class, English (mainly) swing voters that Cameron and the Coalition (and also Milliband, Blair, new Labour etc) pander to in order to win elections.

Interesting use of English and Scottish.  Just the sort of trick Alex Salmond us to appeal to the poor.  Given the relative wealth difference between your average Scot and your average Brit, presumably the Scottish middle class has got rich off the back of the downtrodden English poor?  

Its not a trick at all.  Of the 80 most marginal seats at Westminster only four of those are in Scotland so by nature the main Westminster parties are going to be looking for English votes.
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DungBeetle
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« Reply #888 on: September 10, 2014, 06:53:25 PM »

Bit unfair to label rbs as a Scottish problem. It was the London boys trading the exotics!
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TightEnd
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« Reply #889 on: September 10, 2014, 07:00:03 PM »

Bit unfair to label rbs as a Scottish problem. It was the London boys trading the exotics!

HBOS over-leveraged in domestic lending as well, particularly self-certification mortgages

RBOS went nuts in the US

in general though, i do disagree with curnow's point that it was a Scottish bank problem, though they were part of it and remain over-geared
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OverTheBorder
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« Reply #890 on: September 10, 2014, 07:01:11 PM »

Just went through a fife village with more no signs than yes. Bit surprising. Finally people valuing the union over their windows.

CAVEAT - it was Crossford. Not sure it counts.
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redarmi
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« Reply #891 on: September 10, 2014, 07:02:53 PM »

Bit unfair to label rbs as a Scottish problem. It was the London boys trading the exotics!

Thats an oversimplification.  You could argue that the very reason they expanded so aggressively was George Mathewsons nationalism and determination to give Scotland a bank that they could be proud of and Mathewson is a key supporter of the yes campaign.
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OverTheBorder
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« Reply #892 on: September 10, 2014, 07:03:36 PM »

Also, update on what they have attached to my house!!!! I am bottom flat! Sad
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TightEnd
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« Reply #893 on: September 10, 2014, 07:05:49 PM »

It is indeed hard to believe that there is no credible plan ahead of the vote.

It should have been stated clearly what the plan was (with Westminster approval) both in terms of currency, assets and debt.   At that point the voters can decide.  I'm pretty sure this would have given some of the "no" voters the confidence to vote differently as well.

What rational person would risk the value of their house/savings/pensions etc etc by voting yes with so little upside yet so much potential downside when such fundamental policies are not cast in stone before the vote?  Just makes no sense at all.  Maybe the value of Tennant's super is more important than these issues to the yes crew! Grin

I know you find it hard to believe mark but there is more to life(and this vote) than economics and money.  Self determination is very important and not everybody wants things like the lowest taxes, they value things like education, healthcare  and community and given independence they will be able to determine those priorities for themselves democratically rather than be lumped in with a country which, for a large part votes for parties that are eroding all of those things on a daily basis.

I appreciate this but at what price are you willing to risk your personal wealth to get this and the uncertainty it brings?  The Scottish are well known as being more risk averse/tight/canny than your average nation with their money (whether this is just a myth or not that's up for debate elsewhere) so i just find it amazing how they are willing to take such financial risks personally and collectively to get this.  I have no problem if they want to gamble the bank on it good luck to them.

Huge parts of the Scottish electorate have no personal wealth and they are seeing their rights, benefits and opportunities eroded at the expense of protecting the wealth of what is basically a minority of middle class, English (mainly) swing voters that Cameron and the Coalition (and also Milliband, Blair, new Labour etc) pander to in order to win elections.

Interesting use of English and Scottish.  Just the sort of trick Alex Salmond us to appeal to the poor.  Given the relative wealth difference between your average Scot and your average Brit, presumably the Scottish middle class has got rich off the back of the downtrodden English poor?   

Its not a trick at all.  Of the 80 most marginal seats at Westminster only four of those are in Scotland so by nature the main Westminster parties are going to be looking for English votes.

but devo-max alienates many English voters, particularly on the right? gives UKIP another stick to beat the established parties with.

if this is the case, it runs against your point

(i'll get shot down for this, but Cameron's self interest and that of the Tories would be to campaign for independence, and take their chances in general elections minus the scottish MPS. The fact that they argue on "principle" for the Union is interesting, given the maintenance of the union makes keeping their jobs more difficult - the constituency boundaries in the UK mean the tories need an 8% vote lead to get a parliament majority as it stands. the loss of the scottish mps would go a long way to counteract the loss of the right wing vote to ukip) 
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curnow
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« Reply #894 on: September 10, 2014, 07:07:19 PM »

Bit unfair to label rbs as a Scottish problem. It was the London boys trading the exotics!

there is a good film called Inside Story about the crash , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BuyrBRUsu9A

the RBS problem was not the London trading boys but the Banks they took over that was pretty much already bankrupt
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TightEnd
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« Reply #895 on: September 10, 2014, 07:07:55 PM »

by the way, the fieldwork for tonight's survation was completed BEFORE Brown intervened, devo-max, cameron to scotland, prescott etc etc

all to play for!
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« Reply #896 on: September 10, 2014, 07:09:53 PM »

Also, update on what they have attached to my house!!!! I am bottom flat! Sad

why don't you put up a no next to it?
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TightEnd
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« Reply #897 on: September 10, 2014, 07:11:19 PM »

Bit unfair to label rbs as a Scottish problem. It was the London boys trading the exotics!

there is a good film called Inside Story about the crash , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BuyrBRUsu9A

the RBS problem was not the London trading boys but the Banks they took over that was pretty much already bankrupt


including ABN Amro, supported by...



(though to be fair he regretted it after http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-16835023 )
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OverTheBorder
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« Reply #898 on: September 10, 2014, 07:11:53 PM »

Also, update on what they have attached to my house!!!! I am bottom flat! Sad

why don't you put up a no next to it?

I don't live in Crossford, I value my windows.
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curnow
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« Reply #899 on: September 10, 2014, 07:12:12 PM »

Bit unfair to label rbs as a Scottish problem. It was the London boys trading the exotics!

HBOS over-leveraged in domestic lending as well, particularly self-certification mortgages

RBOS went nuts in the US

in general though, i do disagree with curnow's point that it was a Scottish bank problem, though they were part of it and remain over-geared

dont mean its a Scotish problem , it caused by selling mortgages by USA banks that knew they would default , & then taking bets on hem defaulting
the problem now for Scotland is the size of the banks , they need to be protected by the BOE & with independance expect they would move their head office to London
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