UK General Election 2015

[TightEnd]

Is Ashcroft polling in individual Scottish Constituencies? I was wondering what % of Scottish Labour held seats are being defended by a sitting MP and whether they are harder to fall to SNP because of "incumbency" factor?

haven't seen him poll scottish constituencies recently

LD mps have high incumbency, popular locally...so typically these MPs might poll at one figure but when the pollster asks a follow up question naming the mp, the vote percentages rise dramatically

for labour in scotland

45% voted SNP in assembly elections, 45% voted yes in the referendum...45% are set to vote snp in 2015...under a FPTP system this is enough to produce a landslide

there are different factors at work...certainly an empowerment movement, anti-westminster etc (and no suggestion that labour scottish mps have any sort of incumbency. however danny alexander and charles kennedy might) but also some suggestion that some sitting mps will be saved by lab lib and con voters tactically voting to keep out the snp

as it is there are 59 scottish seats and some forecasts have snp on 54. privately, senior snp politicians would be delighted with 40+  

there was also some interesting research done that said that when their party was criticised, more than 50% of snp voters feel personally insulted...which rang true from some of the stuff we see on here. snp voters in these surveys don't care so much about snp economics, record etc its a feeling of "scottishness" and "anti-westminster"

which, in the round, makes this westminster election unique as the result is very skewed coalition maths

[TightEnd]

leaving all personal preferences aside, and just concentrating on the spreads/value/your expectations

buy or sell any of these (notionally)?

Click to see full-size image.

UKIP is a sell - that bandwagon is running out of steam fast. Even if they hold the 2 they have (marginal), Farage wins (in the balance) they'd still have to pick another up from somewhere for the bet to lose. It is, of course, a skewed market as the potential high side is so much bigger than the low (which is why the spread is so wide compared to Plaid) but I just think UKIP is a dead duck now.

UKIP

Clacton/Carswell is safe
Rochester/Reckless probable loss. unpopular candidate, marginal seat, won in a protest vote, goes tory
s thanet/farage. 3 way marginal at 30% each in polls. farage odds on ladbrokes for the seat but tight
thurrock..v big local council representation, long seen as a possible win, but ukip share slipping nationally.
nothing in polling in grimsby, boston etc that says ukip win. probably second

from that lot the answer is 1,2 or 3 seats. can't see more than that   

[AndrewT]

Is Ashcroft polling in individual Scottish Constituencies? I was wondering what % of Scottish Labour held seats are being defended by a sitting MP and whether they are harder to fall to SNP because of "incumbency" factor?

No new Scottish data since start of February.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/02/scottish-battleground/

[StuartHopkin]

Looking at the Poll of Polls http://may2015.com/

Can some explain why 283 of 650 seats = 34% conservatives not 43%

Also where do the SNP seats disappear to on the table that shows

34.0% Conservative
33.4% Labour
12.8% UKIP
8.2% Lib Dem
5.6% Green

Finally what is an Ashcroft seat?

Lord Ashcroft, billionaire tory peer. operates a polling company that is quite unique in that it surveys marginals in seats and reports on them weekly. an aschcroft seat is a marginal that he regularly polls and reports on

there were 10 this morning for example


basically the con-lab vote shares on poll of polls are currently tied. but the election is 650 constituencies of different sizes (con constituencies tend to be bigger, more votes needed to win them) so the national vote share does not correspond to number of seats won. it depends where the seats are

labour needs to win 24 english tory seats to be largest party if all other things are equal compared to 2010

but all other things aren't equal

a) LD seats going from 57 to 25-30, and how those seats are lost to con-lab is one thing
b) labour is set to lose 30+ in scotland to snp

The figure of Conservative seats that Labour needs to win to become the largest party rises to around 50 if they lose 30+ to snp

rough rule of thumb is

each Labour gain from Conservative in England offsets two SNP gains from Labour.
The Conservatives need to be 3% clear across range of pollsters to get the most seats

0n current estimates con +ld =270/280+30=310 so not a majority

lab+snp= 270/280+45/50=possible majority

which is why the electoral maths this time round makes it much more likely that miliband is prime minister in june than cameron

Thanks Tighty

So the reason the SNP isnt shown on that first table is because the percentage of votes is small, however the constituencies are smaller in Scotland so it still gives them a lot of seats?

[TightEnd]

i don't know why they don't show the SNP

but scotland is 59 out of 650 constituencies. whilst a lot of the urban seats are small geographically scotland also has some huge constituencies (in the north/north east)

45% in scotland is a 4% share nationally

look at http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

and you will see forecasts including the SNP

Remember they won 6 seats in 2010

[Teacake]

Is Ashcroft polling in individual Scottish Constituencies? I was wondering what % of Scottish Labour held seats are being defended by a sitting MP and whether they are harder to fall to SNP because of "incumbency" factor?

haven't seen him poll scottish constituencies recently

LD mps have high incumbency, popular locally...so typically these MPs might poll at one figure but when the pollster asks a follow up question naming the mp, the vote percentages rise dramatically

for labour in scotland

45% voted SNP in assembly elections, 45% voted yes in the referendum...45% are set to vote snp in 2015...under a FPTP system this is enough to produce a landslide

there are different factors at work...certainly an empowerment movement, anti-westminster etc (and no suggestion that labour scottish mps have any sort of incumbency. however danny alexander and charles kennedy might) but also some suggestion that some sitting mps will be saved by lab lib and con voters tactically voting to keep out the snp

as it is there are 59 scottish seats and some forecasts have snp on 54. privately, senior snp politicians would be delighted with 40+  

there was also some interesting research done that said that when their party was criticised, more than 50% of snp voters feel personally insulted...which rang true from some of the stuff we see on here. snp voters in these surveys don't care so much about snp economics, record etc its a feeling of "scottishness" and "anti-westminster"

which, in the round, makes this westminster election unique as the result is very skewed coalition maths

That's the best summary I've read of the Scottish position in this GE anywhere outside of Scotland.

The only thing that I would add is that there is apparently still a very high proportion of undecideds. I know these are usually distributed mainly towards how people voted previously and my gut feel is that these are mostly swithering older traditional Labour voters who will turn out and revert to type on election day similar to the silent Nos in the referendum.

[Kmac84]

Kennedy has a much better chance as the incumbent than Alexander,although I think both go.    Alexander is dead as a dodo imo.

Libs have been throwing everything at Kennedy and Swinson seats. 

The news other day that even Orkney and Shetland are expecting to return SNP is pretty devastating for the Libs.

[TightEnd]

tactical voting 2015 style

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

 @YouGov  ·  10m 10 minutes ago

3 weeks to go and new Nowcast (including 33k new interviews) shows Labour still ahead in seats http://y-g.co/1OHfukR 

Click to see full-size image.

[DungBeetle]

Spread firms still disagreeing and have Tories 15 seats ahead again.  What are they thinking here - the "shy Tory" factor?

[TightEnd]

Spread firms still disagreeing and have Tories 15 seats ahead again.  What are they thinking here - the "shy Tory" factor?

i think its a coin flip

yet con most seats is 8/15 Lab 7/4

labour of course is going to lose 30-50 seats in scotland

all other things being equal they need to win 24 seats off Con to be largest party, but scotland is unchartered territory for the general election maths this time

each gain in eng offsets two losses in scotland in terms of the maths

so they need to win 50 or so in england

polls currently have them winning 45

con needs to be 3% ahead on polling day to win most seats

they might do it (shy tory, incumbency etc) but it doesn't look like an 8/15 shot to me

[ripple11]

tactical voting 2015 style

Click to see full-size image.

Interesting....should gtd Clegg gets back.
Mind you I see another Clegg is is also on the ballot paper.... careful now 


General Election 2015: Sheffield Hallam

Party   Candidate   Votes   %   ±%
Liberal Democrat   Nick Clegg         
English Democrats   Steve Clegg         
Labour   Oliver James Coppard         
Green   Peter Adrian Garbutt         
UKIP   Joe Jenkins         
Independent   Carlton Mark Reeve         
Conservative   Ian Geoffrey Walker   


If you think Cameron can cobble enough seats together to govern.......you can have Clegg to be Deputy PM  again at 6/1 with PP

[RickBFA]

I live in Sheffield Hallam. Labour are pushing very hard here, historically it was a Tory seat (unusual in Sheffield as every other seat is nailed on for Labour). Believe it or not, it's a relatively affluent area.

I've seen more Labour activity than in any other election here.

Tactical voting is going to play a part in this election in tight seats.

I can see Clegg hanging on especially if Tories do vote for him to keep Labour out.

Edit, just checked oddschecker and Clegg is 4/7 to win the seat, looks highly likely.

[nirvana]

Started looking like Cameron made a bit of a gaff not showing up. Much bigger gaff Ed Milliband showing up, being crushed by a more authentic left of centre agenda. Farage looks completely out of place promising massive cuts - ldo

[George2Loose]

I think Miliband is doing well. Cameron definitely dropped one by ducking it