The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[kukushkin88]

Was at a meeting today of UK industry construction chiefs, and it seems that it has only just dawned on them that operating under WTO terms means duty increases on goods to 40%.

The place was in a blind panic.

It was pointed out that concluding terms with individual countries needs to be got on with rather than bury heads in sand.

What I learnt was we seem so preoccupied at a high level with the actual IN or OUT that very little has actually been done about the nitty gritty.

One guy who was appointed on a very high salary, by a mega Corporate, to keep on top of this has only had two meetings with Parliament in 2 years, because they kept putting them off. This is a construction giant.

Incred.

Speaking of the effect on business - I saw a programme which had a section on Brexit. It showed a clip of a flower importer in the UK saying that he'll be put out of business if there's a No Deal Brexit because any delays make his business untenable (it looked like it might have been a clip from Sky News).

He voted for Brexit and when asked just said that he didn't think about the consequences for his business - not everybody has quite such a disastrous consequence but how many millions of leave voters do you think gave it so little thought?

Although I think referendums are terrible I think a clear exit strategy now might be for the Government to say - Parliament has voted we can't have No Deal so we'll have a referendum with the only options being "Current Deal" or "Stay in the EU".

I think this is politically possible - although that might be optimism - but I don't think it's necessarily likely.

But the complications have been caused by the subsequent divisions and the inept negotiations as opposed to the original decision

So the real question is how many Leave voters anticipated that their decision would be rejected by so many and the aftermath handled with such ineptitude?

I would say very few. But then again to vote against your conviction because of these possible factors would’ve been nonsensical.

That's a good argument in isolation but this person said the exact words, "I didn't think about it" - and I'm really not convinced that would be different to a lot of others.

It's true that a lot of Remain voters probably also gave it little thought - but at least that option wasn't going to cause the damage and disruption that leave was always going to.

It can’t be that good of an argument in isolation when it dismisses the original decision as part of the ‘complication’. Very nearly every analysis ever done suggested the original decision would be disastrous for Britain in every metric we’ve ever used to measure success, implementing that was always going to be complicated.

[MANTIS01]

And yet the majority who expressed an opinion voted Leave.

Perhaps that’s because the metrics of success you highlight are all financial whereas topics that mattered to the electorate was stuff like immigration and justice. Did any such metrics warn voters that freedom of movement would get worse if they voted Leave or parliament would squabble like primary school children. Still amazeballs that it’s all about the money and the stupid people for da socialists muhahaha.

In other news it’s suggested that toilet roll could run out.

[MANTIS01]

Macron “It will be a No Deal Brexit if MPs reject deal again” - ROFFLES

[kukushkin88]

And yet the majority who expressed an opinion voted Leave.

Perhaps that’s because the metrics of success you highlight are all financial whereas topics that mattered to the electorate was stuff like immigration and justice. Did any such metrics warn voters that freedom of movement would get worse if they voted Leave or parliament would squabble like primary school children. Still amazeballs that it’s all about the money and the stupid people for da socialists muhahaha.

In other news it’s suggested that toilet roll could run out.

Typically socialists would be ideologically in support of Brexit.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2019/01/why-left-should-champion-brexit

[nirvana]

And yet the majority who expressed an opinion voted Leave.

Perhaps that’s because the metrics of success you highlight are all financial whereas topics that mattered to the electorate was stuff like immigration and justice. Did any such metrics warn voters that freedom of movement would get worse if they voted Leave or parliament would squabble like primary school children. Still amazeballs that it’s all about the money and the stupid people for da socialists muhahaha.

In other news it’s suggested that toilet roll could run out.

Typically socialists would be ideologically in support of Brexit.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2019/01/why-left-should-champion-brexit

Schoolboy error by mantis.. Omitted champagne

[Pokerpops]

And yet the majority who expressed an opinion voted Leave.

Perhaps that’s because the metrics of success you highlight are all financial whereas topics that mattered to the electorate was stuff like immigration and justice. Did any such metrics warn voters that freedom of movement would get worse if they voted Leave or parliament would squabble like primary school children. Still amazeballs that it’s all about the money and the stupid people for da socialists muhahaha.

In other news it’s suggested that toilet roll could run out.

Typically socialists would be ideologically in support of Brexit.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2019/01/why-left-should-champion-brexit

Tony Benn was the epitome of socialism and an avid opponent of the -EEC/EU

If toilet rolls run out we need to establish whether the Express or the Mail is the most kind to our skin.

[kukushkin88]

And yet the majority who expressed an opinion voted Leave.

Perhaps that’s because the metrics of success you highlight are all financial whereas topics that mattered to the electorate was stuff like immigration and justice. Did any such metrics warn voters that freedom of movement would get worse if they voted Leave or parliament would squabble like primary school children. Still amazeballs that it’s all about the money and the stupid people for da socialists muhahaha.

In other news it’s suggested that toilet roll could run out.

Typically socialists would be ideologically in support of Brexit.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2019/01/why-left-should-champion-brexit

Schoolboy error by mantis.. Omitted champagne

I’m stockpiling it (on a smallish scale) for Article 50 gets revoked. That is still a highly unlikely outcome in my view, no deal is even more unlikely imo. I guess there’d also be champagne for Macron insists on a GE in the UK as a condition of an extension.

[RED-DOG]

And yet the majority who expressed an opinion voted Leave.

Perhaps that’s because the metrics of success you highlight are all financial whereas topics that mattered to the electorate was stuff like immigration and justice. Did any such metrics warn voters that freedom of movement would get worse if they voted Leave or parliament would squabble like primary school children. Still amazeballs that it’s all about the money and the stupid people for da socialists muhahaha.

In other news it’s suggested that toilet roll could run out.

Typically socialists would be ideologically in support of Brexit.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2019/01/why-left-should-champion-brexit

Tony Benn was the epitome of socialism and an avid opponent of the -EEC/EU

If toilet rolls run out we need to establish whether the Express or the Mail is the most kind to our skin.

Depends what colour it is....

[Pokerpops]

And yet the majority who expressed an opinion voted Leave.

Perhaps that’s because the metrics of success you highlight are all financial whereas topics that mattered to the electorate was stuff like immigration and justice. Did any such metrics warn voters that freedom of movement would get worse if they voted Leave or parliament would squabble like primary school children. Still amazeballs that it’s all about the money and the stupid people for da socialists muhahaha.

In other news it’s suggested that toilet roll could run out.

Typically socialists would be ideologically in support of Brexit.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2019/01/why-left-should-champion-brexit

Tony Benn was the epitome of socialism and an avid opponent of the -EEC/EU

If toilet rolls run out we need to establish whether the Express or the Mail is the most kind to our skin.

Depends what colour it is....

v v v v good
 

[kukushkin88]

Market refers to third Meaningful Vote held by the House of Commons to approve the government's EU withdrawal agreement, referred to as the "deal". If a third Meaningful Vote does not take place before 30th March 2019 this market will be voided.

Deal Not To Pass
8/11

Deal To Pass
1/1


Even money ?....huge pressure to get this passed now. Labour MP's looking to put in amendment so some (enough?) can now vote for it,,

The result of THAT May speech last night......


Now   11/5 for deal to pass.
          2/5 not to pass.

I do think 11/5 is an OK bet. Is it time limited or exclusive to the next MV3?

[ripple11]

Market refers to third Meaningful Vote held by the House of Commons to approve the government's EU withdrawal agreement, referred to as the "deal". If a third Meaningful Vote does not take place before 30th March 2019 this market will be voided.

Deal Not To Pass
8/11

Deal To Pass
1/1


Even money ?....huge pressure to get this passed now. Labour MP's looking to put in amendment so some (enough?) can now vote for it,,

The result of THAT May speech last night......


Now   11/5 for deal to pass.
          2/5 not to pass.

I do think 11/5 is an OK bet. Is it time limited or exclusive to the next MV3?

Next MV3.

Yes agree now an OK price.......... as it looks like a "no vote" means a horrible choice between a long extension one way or "no deal" the other.

 Big 3/4 days to go!

[kukushkin88]

Market refers to third Meaningful Vote held by the House of Commons to approve the government's EU withdrawal agreement, referred to as the "deal". If a third Meaningful Vote does not take place before 30th March 2019 this market will be voided.

Deal Not To Pass
8/11

Deal To Pass
1/1


Even money ?....huge pressure to get this passed now. Labour MP's looking to put in amendment so some (enough?) can now vote for it,,

The result of THAT May speech last night......


Now   11/5 for deal to pass.
          2/5 not to pass.

I do think 11/5 is an OK bet. Is it time limited or exclusive to the next MV3?

Next MV3.

Yes agree now an OK price.......... as it looks like a "no vote" means a horrible choice between a long extension one way or "no deal" the other.

 Big 3/4 days to go!

I do feel strongly that she has to (and will) revoke A50 before no deal. Obviously this would buck her trend of always making the worst possible decision in any situation but this one is a bit easier. I think it won’t come to that because the EU will accommodate all sorts of extensions.

[kukushkin88]

Market refers to third Meaningful Vote held by the House of Commons to approve the government's EU withdrawal agreement, referred to as the "deal". If a third Meaningful Vote does not take place before 30th March 2019 this market will be voided.

Deal Not To Pass
8/11

Deal To Pass
1/1


Even money ?....huge pressure to get this passed now. Labour MP's looking to put in amendment so some (enough?) can now vote for it,,

The result of THAT May speech last night......


Now   11/5 for deal to pass.
          2/5 not to pass.

I do think 11/5 is an OK bet. Is it time limited or exclusive to the next MV3?

Next MV3.

Yes agree now an OK price.......... as it looks like a "no vote" means a horrible choice between a long extension one way or "no deal" the other.

 Big 3/4 days to go!

I do feel strongly that she has to (and will) revoke A50 before no deal. Obviously this would buck her trend of always making the worst possible decision in any situation but this one is a bit easier. I think it won’t come to that because the EU will accommodate all sorts of extensions.

Maybe she just quits actually, I’d have A50 revoked wel ahead of no deal in terms of likely outcome.

[ripple11]

Seems EU are now working on the basis that the deal wont pass next week...........so they are looking at a short extension that isnt conditional.

 Maybe this gives time for indicative votes?.....and something like a soft brexit/Norway deal will win through.


Taken the 8/1 May is replaced in May 

[Doobs]

Seems EU are now working on the basis that the deal wont pass next week...........so they are looking at a short extension that isnt conditional.

 Maybe this gives time for indicative votes?.....and something like a soft brexit/Norway deal will win through.


Taken the 8/1 May is replaced in May 

Betfair are odds on May leaves before we leave the EU.  Remarkable.