The newly appointed Leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister sits alone in 10 Downing Street.
After a frenzied leadership campaign, he/she was elected by the Party on a promise to renegotiate the Irish backstop or go for No Deal.
It’s the middle of September and in a month’s time the leaders of the EU member states meet for the final European Summit before the end of the extension period.
The re-negotiations, such as they were, have stalled. Now the new PM must decide what to do
The arguments in favour of No Deal have been endlessly promoted. The problem is that each is flawed. It was always very unlikely the substantial amendment of the backstop could be negotiated whatever the personal qualities of the PM. Even before Theresa May’s resignation, there was not a scintilla of evidence the EU would materially compromise its red line. However, some continue to profess that no deal contains nothing to be scared about.
This has been disputed by a formidable host of opponents, including most economists, the Government’s own economic analysis, and the civil service’s apparent warning of risks incl food price rises, a fall in sterling and a potential dislocation of the stability of the union.
No matter though, the will of the people must be respected and the UK must leave irrespective of the consequences. then again the Leave campaign assumed a deal with the EU and never really suggested any material adverse impact. After all, that was Project Fear and many voters did not believe it.
The new PM ponders. Unsurprisingly, nothing has really changed between May and October, not the political landscape, not the composition of the House of Commons, not the negotiations, not the endless wrangling between Leave and Remain, but he/she has been elected after firmly supporting No Deal, the strong preference of a large majority of Conservative party members and a majority of Conservative voters.
Surely the choice must be No Deal?
But of course the decision is not and will not be straightforward.
The negative consequences of No Deal will not have changed. Whoever is PM, No Deal will still be opposed by a majority of MPs, a minority of Conservative MPs, a majority of the public, and most major business organisations.
And now the new PM will need to consider the most difficult of questions although one that is, strangely, rarely asked.
Does No Deal make the UK more likely to get its desired deal?
The answer is no. No Deal’s fatal flaw is that it is not an end in itself. It is not even a means to an end. After a no deal you still have to negotiate. The EU has been categorically clear that after No Deal the focus of the negotiations would remain on the principal parts of the Withdrawal Agreement, including the backstop.
As the negotiations become even more tortuous and the negative consequences of No Deal further evident, who will receive the lion’s share of the blame?
The public will not need to look far. No Deal may have eased the electoral threat from the Brexit Party but if and when it all goes wrong neither the new PM nor the Conservative Party will be popular.What chance then of winning the next General Election?
So what does our beleaguered PM do? Elected on a No Deal platform, confronted with the reality of No Deal, stuck between a rock and a hard place. He or she may pick up their pen, frown pensively, and draft two speeches - one for a General Election, the other for a Referendum. Or a third.....as neither of those two is palatable, the third speech may be "revoke". The outsider of the three options, for sure but unless you are prepared to accept losing an election badly (they surely would) or leave winning another referendum (it might well do, but still no "good" way to leave after that) there are very little in the way of places to turn.
Enjoy ripping this to shreds
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