The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[Woodsey]

It is simply not true though

you can't just put a half arsed personal view out there with no corroboration and expect not to be challenged

"2018/19 surveys show overall growing support for the EU

The 2018/2019 Eurobarometer surveys confirmed citizens’ steadily growing support for the European Union. Carried out amongst more than 27 000 people from 28 member states, they revealed that


62% of citizens believe that their countries' EU membership is a good thing, whilst over two-thirds of respondents (68 %) are convinced that their country has benefited from being a member of the EU. This is the highest score ever measured since 1983.
66% of European respondents would vote for their country to remain a member of the EU (a majority in all member states) and only 17% would contemplate leaving, with 17% undecided."

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/elections-press-kit/4/surveys-in-all-member-states

no one else is leaving, most likely, no exit vote were there to be one in a EU27 country, would be anything other than remain  

happy to challenge your view...

A survey of 27k people from 520m population equates to like 0.000something% Ironically not altogether democratic

Majority surveyed were from the mainland more inclined to union membership, not an island nation.

Definition of “a good thing” is what?

Leaving means pain. People are selfish and money talks.

So is this the robust corroboration I need to attain credibility?

statistically it’s like asking one German fella if he wants to keep his job/house and Herr Fritz only saying yes 62% of the time.

Amazing and super convincing corroboration of a viewpoint like...

Well done boss you did good.... 

[BigAdz]

Quite a startling claim at substance though wasn't it? Around a 1000 people per country who could have been in prison for all we know. Laughable when you see the figures were used as some form of rebuttal.

[Doobs]

Quite a startling claim at substance though wasn't it? Around a 1000 people per country who could have been in prison for all we know. Laughable when you see the figures were used as some form of rebuttal.

27,000 people is a very big sample size in any opinion poll, and unless the polling company are crooked as fuck, is going to produce a pretty accurate result.  68% is such a long way from 50% that there is zero chance the poll shows anything other than what is claimed. 

I think there is a pretty small chance that any other country is going to follow us anytime soon.  It would be pretty surprising if your average impartial observer on the continent is looking at this clusterfuck and thinking why don't we try that?  ...But you are welcome to produce a poll showing otherwise.  I'd even be happy with a sample size of just 26,000.

[Archer]

Ann Widdecombe’s political exhumation adds insult to ignorance in Strasbourg

a good one even by Marina Hyde's high standards

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/05/ann-widdecomb-political-exhumation-insult-ignorance-brexit-party

Struggle to read to the end of pieces like this. I can shrug off that she lifted the bin bags line from Mock the Week but can’t avoid the thought she would’ve fist-pumped the Trump baby balloon. Criticism of bad manners should be consistent, not just when it suits your political views.

Anyways saying it’s always England that displays poor behaviour is pretty rude and also wtf blindness. Great to read our country being run down again. Fosho high standards of hypocrisy and irony.

Whilst didn’t read until end can somebody tell me if this Guardian of ethics mentioned the EU leadership selection process and offered comment about integrity of candidate credentials?

Beat Andrew Neil to it. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/04/germans-condemn-own-candidate-for-top-eu-job-ursula-von-der-leyen

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/03/the-guardian-view-on-europe-top-jobs-the-good-the-bad-and-the-compromise

Great headline..."The nominees for senior roles are sensible choices"

But guess the illustration that old guard power base dismiss any semblance of democracy to retain authority at the expense of smaller disenchanted countries is about right. Accusations of nepotism, corruption and incompetence no surprise.

Would be a refreshing for the whole EU debate to turn away from economic misfortune, travel inconvenience and Farage antics to whether supporting such ideals is the right and proper position for our country.

Don't think Remain really want to talk about such things tho. 

Germany, France, Netherlands and Spain had a preferred candidate for president  of European Commission - Timmermans (PES). They weren't succesful.
The V4 countries were vehemently against and Italy tagged along and Ireland not happy as well. And whilst they didn't get the lead EPP candidate through at least von der Leyen is from the  EPP.

Of course, the democraticaly elected  MEPs can now reject her nomination if they so choose.....

[Archer]

Quite a startling claim at substance though wasn't it? Around a 1000 people per country who could have been in prison for all we know. Laughable when you see the figures were used as some form of rebuttal.

27,000 people is a very big sample size in any opinion poll, and unless the polling company are crooked as fuck, is going to produce a pretty accurate result.  68% is such a long way from 50% that there is zero chance the poll shows anything other than what is claimed. 

I think there is a pretty small chance that any other country is going to follow us anytime soon.  It would be pretty surprising if your average impartial observer on the continent is looking at this clusterfuck and thinking why don't we try that?  ...But you are welcome to produce a poll showing otherwise.  I'd even be happy with a sample size of just 26,000.

Just about to say the same thing. I've just been looking at a you gov survey from this week for current UK views within UK and that was from 1600 participants.

[nirvana]

Ann Widdecombe’s political exhumation adds insult to ignorance in Strasbourg

a good one even by Marina Hyde's high standards

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/05/ann-widdecomb-political-exhumation-insult-ignorance-brexit-party

Struggle to read to the end of pieces like this. I can shrug off that she lifted the bin bags line from Mock the Week but can’t avoid the thought she would’ve fist-pumped the Trump baby balloon. Criticism of bad manners should be consistent, not just when it suits your political views.

Anyways saying it’s always England that displays poor behaviour is pretty rude and also wtf blindness. Great to read our country being run down again. Fosho high standards of hypocrisy and irony.

Whilst didn’t read until end can somebody tell me if this Guardian of ethics mentioned the EU leadership selection process and offered comment about integrity of candidate credentials?

Beat Andrew Neil to it. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/04/germans-condemn-own-candidate-for-top-eu-job-ursula-von-der-leyen

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/03/the-guardian-view-on-europe-top-jobs-the-good-the-bad-and-the-compromise

Great headline..."The nominees for senior roles are sensible choices"

But guess the illustration that old guard power base dismiss any semblance of democracy to retain authority at the expense of smaller disenchanted countries is about right. Accusations of nepotism, corruption and incompetence no surprise.

Would be a refreshing for the whole EU debate to turn away from economic misfortune, travel inconvenience and Farage antics to whether supporting such ideals is the right and proper position for our country.

Don't think Remain really want to talk about such things tho. 

Germany, France, Netherlands and Spain had a preferred candidate for president  of European Commission - Timmermans (PES). They weren't succesful.
The V4 countries were vehemently against and Italy tagged along and Ireland not happy as well. And whilst they didn't get the lead EPP candidate through at least von der Leyen is from the  EPP.

Of course, the democraticaly elected  MEPs can now reject her nomination if they so choose.....

Just in case, we shouldn't conflate democracy with appointments even if those doing the appointing were elected.

[MANTIS01]

27k is a very big sample size?

We’re asking 160k who the best choice for PM is

We asked 30m if they were happy with EU membership

Both majorities are lolled at

But if 62% of 27k say it’s “a good thing” (not a fair thing, just more euro in the pocket and no queues at airport) it’s stone cold fact

And errr the whole EU objective here was frightening other countries into not wanting to follow. I would label other countries being successfully frightened into not wanting to follow as “a bad thing”

[TightEnd]

27,000 is a huge sample size

There are margins of error of course, but to say otherwise when the major polling companies are usually commissioned to produce polls in the 1k to 1500 range is simply wrong

I wouldn't have postulated that it is suitable evidence if it was a tiny poll. From tiny polls you can take it as a snapshot, look at directions of movement etc but 27,000 is a major one

62% in itself an interesting number which might be 59 or 65% once you apply the error factors to the polling, thoroughly debunking your viewpoint, which you conveniently choose to poo-poo.

It was published three days ago

[TightEnd]

something for your morning coffee, flat-earthers

"In the small print of opinion polls you'll often find a ‘margin of error’ quoted, normally of plus or minus 3%. This means that 19 times out of 20, the figures in the opinion poll will be within 3% of the ‘true’ answer you'd get if you interviewed the entire population.

A poll of 1,000 people has a margin of error of +/- 3%, a poll of 2,000 people a margin of error of +/- 2%. The smaller the sample, the less precise it is and the wider the margin of error. "

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2011/11/21/understanding-margin-error

[Archer]

Ann Widdecombe’s political exhumation adds insult to ignorance in Strasbourg

a good one even by Marina Hyde's high standards

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/05/ann-widdecomb-political-exhumation-insult-ignorance-brexit-party

Struggle to read to the end of pieces like this. I can shrug off that she lifted the bin bags line from Mock the Week but can’t avoid the thought she would’ve fist-pumped the Trump baby balloon. Criticism of bad manners should be consistent, not just when it suits your political views.

Anyways saying it’s always England that displays poor behaviour is pretty rude and also wtf blindness. Great to read our country being run down again. Fosho high standards of hypocrisy and irony.

Whilst didn’t read until end can somebody tell me if this Guardian of ethics mentioned the EU leadership selection process and offered comment about integrity of candidate credentials?

Beat Andrew Neil to it.  

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/04/germans-condemn-own-candidate-for-top-eu-job-ursula-von-der-leyen

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/03/the-guardian-view-on-europe-top-jobs-the-good-the-bad-and-the-compromise

Great headline..."The nominees for senior roles are sensible choices"

But guess the illustration that old guard power base dismiss any semblance of democracy to retain authority at the expense of smaller disenchanted countries is about right. Accusations of nepotism, corruption and incompetence no surprise.

Would be a refreshing for the whole EU debate to turn away from economic misfortune, travel inconvenience and Farage antics to whether supporting such ideals is the right and proper position for our country.

Don't think Remain really want to talk about such things tho.  

Germany, France, Netherlands and Spain had a preferred candidate for president  of European Commission - Timmermans (PES). They weren't succesful.
The V4 countries were vehemently against and Italy tagged along and Ireland not happy as well. And whilst they didn't get the lead EPP candidate through at least von der Leyen is from the  EPP.

Of course, the democraticaly elected  MEPs can now reject her nomination if they so choose.....

Just in case, we shouldn't conflate democracy with appointments even if those doing the appointing were elected.

Nomination not appointment. Representative democracy is the nuts  

[Archer]

something for your morning coffee, flat-earthers

"In the small print of opinion polls you'll often find a ‘margin of error’ quoted, normally of plus or minus 3%. This means that 19 times out of 20, the figures in the opinion poll will be within 3% of the ‘true’ answer you'd get if you interviewed the entire population.

A poll of 1,000 people has a margin of error of +/- 3%, a poll of 2,000 people a margin of error of +/- 2%. The smaller the sample, the less precise it is and the wider the margin of error. "

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2011/11/21/understanding-margin-error

Interesting So not "laughable" then..

[RED-DOG]

something for your morning coffee, flat-earthers

Hahaha

I lolled. Not just because it was a good jibe, but also because Tighty is slowly being dragged towards the level of the lowest common denominator.

[MANTIS01]

Yea but the vital bit of info, no matter if you’re comfortable with 0.0005%, is definition of “good thing”

Let’s ask if it’s a “fair thing” or a “democratic thing” instead

When the majority say it’s neither democratic or fair what’s the thinking? Champion membership and carry on...

[TightEnd]

Yea but the vital bit of info, no matter if you’re comfortable with 0.0005%, is definition of “good thing”

Let’s ask if it’s a “fair thing” or a “democratic thing” instead

When the majority say it’s neither democratic or fair what’s the thinking? Champion membership and carry on...

you stated that after we leave, smaller disenfranchised countries would seek to leave

I produced a piece of work that countered that claim.

You rubbished it without substantive counter evidence of your own. This morning i have produced another link, this time to display how margin of error works and how therefore my first link can be taken to be a fair rebuttal of your first point.

You have done this for three years, ignored most of what is substantive against your viewpoint. You aren't alone, to be fair.

Frankly, jog on and try to add to the debate rather than just tell me red is blue when everyone can see its red!

[MANTIS01]

Yea but the vital bit of info, no matter if you’re comfortable with 0.0005%, is definition of “good thing”

Let’s ask if it’s a “fair thing” or a “democratic thing” instead

When the majority say it’s neither democratic or fair what’s the thinking? Champion membership and carry on...

you stated that after we leave, smaller disenfranchised countries would seek to leave

I produced a piece of work that countered that claim.

You rubbished it without substantive counter evidence of your own. This morning i have produced another link, this time to display how margin of error works and how therefore my first link can be taken to be a fair rebuttal of your first point.

You have done this for three years, ignored most of what is substantive against your viewpoint. You aren't alone, to be fair.

Frankly, jog on and try to add to the debate rather than just tell me red is blue when everyone can see its red!

You post articles from Guardian journalists who lament rudeness whilst telling other posters to jog on & they’re opinions are half-arsed. When people don’t auto agree with you rudeness becomes a forte.

So anyway back to the debate...it’s an accepted fact that far right politics is substantially increasing across Europe.

If these are the Leave type racists how is satisfaction with EU membership and Remain type support growing?