The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

I get frustrated :-)

I haven't claimed that far right politics isn't a growing factor. Populism is on the rise globally, probably a reaction to capitalism's failures, here to austerity etc etc

Nor in producing the link did i claim that satisfaction is growing.

Merely that in a recently big poll of 27,000 people across the continent 62% of people would choose to remain.

That's a long long way from claiming, as you did with a throwaway line with absolutely no justification to back it up, that once we leave members of the EU27 will follow.

It simply isn't the case.

Just from a common sense viewpoint, seeing how difficult the process has been for us (self-inflicted) why would it be a pre-cursor to others wanting to do the same? A minority of members of the populace in the 27 will always be anti-EU but where is the evidence that any government will even promulgate that as a policy?

[TightEnd]

Interesting in the IoS today

"Johnson is about to be elected leader on a false prospectus – on a promise he cannot guarantee"

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/boris-johnson-landslide-win-tory-leadership-no-deal-brexit-disaster-a8991286.html

[TightEnd]

far from certain this would work i suppose

but here is the latest

MPs plan to make it impossible for the next prime minister to force a no-deal Brexit, says Robert Peston

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/07/the-plan-to-block-no-deal-brexit/


as Boris is about to have a new cabinet and the likes of Gauke, Lidlington (current cabinet "don't no deal-ers") will be on the back benches then there is at least a quorum for a larger cabal of awkward Tory MPs

[MANTIS01]

I get frustrated :-)

I haven't claimed that far right politics isn't a growing factor. Populism is on the rise globally, probably a reaction to capitalism's failures, here to austerity etc etc

Nor in producing the link did i claim that satisfaction is growing.

Merely that in a recently big poll of 27,000 people across the continent 62% of people would choose to remain.

That's a long long way from claiming, as you did with a throwaway line with absolutely no justification to back it up, that once we leave members of the EU27 will follow.

It simply isn't the case.

Just from a common sense viewpoint, seeing how difficult the process has been for us (self-inflicted) why would it be a pre-cursor to others wanting to do the same? A minority of members of the populace in the 27 will always be anti-EU but where is the evidence that any government will even promulgate that as a policy?

My posting style is different and I’m not inclined to search google for corroboration, sorry.

In surveys I’ve digested the majority of EU countries, whilst currently somewhat satisfied, desire a referendum on their continued membership and feel national government should control areas such as immigration (just like us). There are economic challenges in several member states which are about to get worse with Brexit. The majority think Brexit will be bad for EU. On top of this democratic populations are witnessing an increasingly autocratic system without control.

Not motivated to search for evidence to corroborate because they are all obvious points.

As economic situation worsens, EU red lines such as immigration immovable, strains on social infrastructure, populist party support rising and possibility of protest voting, reality of Brexit starting to bite and the UK not exploding.

We must accept others leaving becomes realistic and one country exiting drastically changes things like a jenga block. We can’t produce evidence about how folk feel now to suggest that remains constant after a country leaves, they think it will be worse for them, they will be less satisfied. Hence my rejection of current euro parliament surveys. Alternatively we might ask why confidence/satisfaction would rise in the future, esp if god forbid UK begins to flourish.

[TightEnd]

"In surveys I’ve digested the majority of EU countries, whilst currently somewhat satisfied, desire a referendum on their continued membership and feel national government should control areas such as immigration (just like us)."

please produce links to them, thanks

might educate me. google is your friend, not something to treat as a luddite would.

[TightEnd]

coming to a head, it seems

John McDonnell on Marr says Labour’s compromise position on Brexit “has not worked” and “we need to express a view which is clearly...remain”.

Not sure how it shakes out, but then you could say that about much of current politics.

--

On the same show the panel suggested a September election was very likely, as Boris rides his first wave (Brexit party voters prepared to give him a chance) to attempt get a majority to break the Parliamentary logjam, then presumably do no deal

[MANTIS01]

https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2017/06/15/post-brexit-europeans-more-favorable-toward-eu/

Another variable to take seriously is the new leaders. As an economic wizard the criminally neglectful lawyer Legarde with no economic background isn’t a banker, cough, to positively impact the Euro right?? Plus the worst minister in Germany. Plus failed Belgium PM. Who knows how these guys work out but it isn’t any kind of certainty. Bit like Lampard at Chelsea.

[TightEnd]

https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2017/06/15/post-brexit-europeans-more-favorable-toward-eu/

Another variable to take seriously is the new leaders. As an economic wizard the criminally neglectful lawyer Legarde with no economic background isn’t a banker, cough, to positively impact the Euro right?? Plus the worst minister in Germany. Plus failed Belgium PM. Who knows how these guys work out but it isn’t any kind of certainty. Bit like Lampard at Chelsea.

cheers for the link.

[BigAdz]

Yea but the vital bit of info, no matter if you’re comfortable with 0.0005%, is definition of “good thing”

Let’s ask if it’s a “fair thing” or a “democratic thing” instead

When the majority say it’s neither democratic or fair what’s the thinking? Champion membership and carry on...

you stated that after we leave, smaller disenfranchised countries would seek to leave

I produced a piece of work that countered that claim.

You rubbished it without substantive counter evidence of your own. This morning i have produced another link, this time to display how margin of error works and how therefore my first link can be taken to be a fair rebuttal of your first point.

You have done this for three years, ignored most of what is substantive against your viewpoint. You aren't alone, to be fair.

Frankly, jog on and try to add to the debate rather than just tell me red is blue when everyone can see its red!

Seems fair enough.

Anyone that disagrees or doesn't fall into line jog on.

Any wonder it's a slow painful death when the main man acts like that.

I get frustrated too when any decent point gets ignored but you just have to suck it up and get on with it.

Ain't all about you....yet...

[TightEnd]

By all means disagree, (no posts are deleted) but make the points defendable, with evidence where needed or requested. Then "decent points" have some credibility.

so links to land rover/electrification in birmingham good, and surveys to attitudes to leaving as above good, to give two examples. Tick

Random musings of people with nothing to back up thoughts, not so good.

 

[MANTIS01]

From recollection I can say that before the referendum Brexit was an underdog...so I can assume a EU satisfaction survey would spit out majority approval in UK. Could trawl google, not sure they commissioned such a poll, bet there was varying results at different stages. My point that the rumblings of discontent in EU are similar to pre-Brexit UK and what’s an underdog today can readily change doesn’t need verifying.

We are all sailing into uncharted territory in an organic situation with many changeable variables, recognised challenges and new leadership. Nobody needs to or indeed can prove an opinion for it to offer merit to this debate

[horseplayer]

google (other search engines are available) is your friend

Really not difficult to find articles that support any point in this day an age

whether these articles are valid is up to the reader

[MANTIS01]

Therefore really not difficult to disprove any half arsed opinion people care to offer.

Telling folk they aren’t welcome unless they conform to protocol nobody agreed to is very EU-like

[TightEnd]

Credibility, I think is important. No one is unwelcome, even those who try to conflate leave voting with universal support of the EDL to choose one recent eye opening and easily disregarded viewpoint

[Doobs]

From recollection I can say that before the referendum Brexit was an underdog...so I can assume a EU satisfaction survey would spit out majority approval in UK. Could trawl google, not sure they commissioned such a poll, bet there was varying results at different stages. My point that the rumblings of discontent in EU are similar to pre-Brexit UK and what’s an underdog today can readily change doesn’t need verifying.

We are all sailing into uncharted territory in an organic situation with many changeable variables, recognised challenges and new leadership. Nobody needs to or indeed can prove an opinion for it to offer merit to this debate

Before Brexit the opinion polls were split on the result of the referendum.  I have posted this several times before, including before the referendum.  I also backed leave on Betfair as the odds seemed significantly out of line with the polling. 

I have seen several polls on EU satisfaction, and the UK was the least satisfied of all the countries pre-referendum.  Given how close the referendum result was, then it is unlikely any other country would vote to leave right now. 

Things can obviously change, for instance, mortality alone means that three years down the line means that it is very unclear that there is a majority for Brexit even if 17.4m voted for it last time.  We have been losing 500,000 people a year of which the significant majority voted for Brexit and each year are replaced by 750,000 18 year olds a year, the vast majority of which are against Brexit.  You can ignore all the recent polls if you wish, but you can't really ignore mortality.  So when you claim the majority want Brexit, you are on pretty dodgy ground even though 33m is obviously a huge sample size; and people are on seriously dodgy ground when they ask about the 17.4m?  Well roughly 1m of them have died...  It was mentioned here 3 years ago that demographics and timesceles meant that there would no longer be a majority for Brexit by the time it went through.  With the speed we are travelling at, it is not even going to be a doubt by the time the process is completed.   

FWIW This is a good calculator that tells you how reliable a sample size for a poll is: https://www.surveymonkey.com/mp/sample-size-calculator/

You can see from that a 27000 sample size over a 500 million population has only a 1% chance of been out by 0.8% or more. 

You earlier mentioned the 160,000 Conservative members.  It is unclear how many will vote, but that isn't a sensible poll for an EU referendum, because it is clearly a biassed sample group, just as a poll of Lib Dem members would not produce a satisfactory result.  They are prefectly entitled to choose their own leader, obviuously, but our direction on Brexit?

I think I am with Tighty BTW, I think the deal should have been accepted by parliament and we should have left by now, but hasn't "Brexiteer" Boris has voted against it a couple of times?  And we are the traitors?  Funny old World.