The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

Lol. He is obviously a charlatan and a bulls hitter but his membership electorate believes in unicorns so he still wins, right?

[nirvana]

Lol. He is obviously a charlatan and a bulls hitter but his membership electorate believes in unicorns so he still wins, right?

Any more than any of them in reality - not really, just a bit easier to see through perhaps and isn't as good at pretending to be serious and honest when so much of it is a pretty silly game.

I'm becoming a bigger fan by the day - incred that he got Hunt to say he was just 'peddling optimism' the other day, like that was a bad thing. One thing I've learned from the exceptional bosses I've had is that they all peddled optimism.

[Woodsey]

Walked past Downing St before and spotted Laura Trevelyan (or however you spell it) coming out....

Kuenssberg?

Trevelyan not really that close if it is!

Aye that’s the one 

Well she had obviously just done this when I saw her coming out.....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48963537

[TightEnd]

review of last night

"the overall point is essentially the Tory party has a choice between a candidate who can do these big TV events very well but between them has eight Brexit positions and makes terrible strategic decisions, and a talented but toxic politician:"

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2019/07/who-won-latest-boris-johnson-jeremy-hunt-debate-jeremy-corbyn-probably

[TightEnd]

Leo Varadkar says Brexit will lead to 'decades of economic decline' for UK

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/105275/leo-varadkar-says-brexit-will-lead-decades-economic

[TightEnd]

very unusual statement from Counter Terrorism Command.

The Darroch leaker should give himself up or the Mail on Sunday/⁦Oakeshott⁩ should shop him, and if they publish more leaks, they too may be committing a criminal offence.

Sounds like cops expect more.

[MANTIS01]

Leo Varadkar says Brexit will lead to 'decades of economic decline' for UK

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/105275/leo-varadkar-says-brexit-will-lead-decades-economic

Is it Brexit that will cause decades of economic decline or is it because UK is an ailing industrial nation with an ageing population and misplaced sense of entitlement. Isn’t the whole bored to death economic implications of Brexit only masking what were existing long-standing issues?

[TightEnd]

In choosing to proceed (obviously for strong democratic reasons) we produce an (optional) big exogenous economic shock to layer on top of the long term structural problems of demographics, lack of productivity, tech change etc etc

the consequences of this in higher unemployment, lower tax receipts, bigger demands on the state etc only make the necessity to re-shape our economy more difficult to achieve.

[MANTIS01]

Alternatively Brexit gives us a big kick in the ass to shock us out of malaise. It’s the catalyst for Bojo’s low tax approach which actually nets larger tax receipts for a leaner, less wasteful, more energetic/competitive model. Doesn’t Brexit stimulate reform a whole lot quicker than Remain?

[TightEnd]

You have highly integrated European economies, us included, that account for 40% of or exports

You are decreasing that integration increasing costs of business (border costs, removal of just in time chains), and the cost of living (tariffs onto higher consumer prices), substantially

In return you hope to get a series of trade deals globally.

Yet these take years to do. With the US for example there is an America first policy, a big Irish lobby and lots of regulations they would require us to accept before we can do it. We actually lose control by leaving. We do not have the upper hand

In the meantime the dislocation is enormous, and the impact of lower levels of and more costly trade is felt in the real world notably by much Higher unemployment

but of course the reasons for leaving are not mainly economic they are cultural. Yet the main impact will be economic, and it continues to be vastly under-appreciated by those who think Brexit solves their problems (austerity caused some of those, political systems others) or who fail to appreciate the benefits of free movement on society.

 

[BigAdz]

In choosing to proceed (obviously for strong democratic reasons) we produce an (optional) big exogenous economic shock to layer on top of the long term structural problems of demographics, lack of productivity, tech change etc etc

the consequences of this in higher unemployment, lower tax receipts, bigger demands on the state etc only make the necessity to re-shape our economy more difficult to achieve.

Not sure why I just thought it, but do you speak like this at home?

[Doobs]

Alternatively Brexit gives us a big kick in the ass to shock us out of malaise. It’s the catalyst for Bojo’s low tax approach which actually nets larger tax receipts for a leaner, less wasteful, more energetic/competitive model. Doesn’t Brexit stimulate reform a whole lot quicker than Remain?

Why not increase company taxes if an economic shock for companies is such a great thing? Maybe up interest rates on their debt, and hopefully, get a knock on with the exchange rate gets worse for them.  These was we can really fuck companies up so they get more efficient?  Thatcher would be proud.       

[MANTIS01]

An economic shock is not a great thing. But it is going to happen. So just peddling optimism.

Let’s not forget that a substantial factor in the onset of this economic shock is the negotiating position of the EU. This could all be solved in the blink of an eye. Ironically though their position is not really economically driven, it’s cultural, principles and beliefs such as “preserving the ethos of the union”

[TightEnd]

that substantial factor is borne of protecting the position of Ireland, a member that is staying, and the good friday agreement with reference to the Irish border.

Their negotiating position is perfectly sound, has been consistent from day one and they've shown legendary levels of patience with the half baked ideas we've come to them with.

All the "solved in the blink of an eye" stuff we hear is just more unicorn talk. As Boris is about to find out

[MANTIS01]

I’m sure you know full well that Ireland has become a convenient cover story for the EU stance

I watched the documentaries where Irish were explaining to EU panels all about Irish history and troubles and they were learning about the gravity like 2years ago. Before then they thought the troubles were a song by U2 or something you packed up in your old kit bag.