The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[The Camel]

If we asked 1000 leave voters pre referendum how long it should take to leave the EU if you won, what do you think the average result would be?

Is it 4 days ?

If they had heard of Article 50, they would have expected it to be triggered within a month and for us to be fully divorced within a year.

[kukushkin88]

We knew all this last week though before the vote.  Nothing has changed.  So why did we bother with the vote?

I will repeat the question.  WHY DID WE BOTHER TO VOTE?  

Was it a case of thinking leave would't happen and we will freeroll it knowing if remain wins like it should then we are safe and the wagons will have had their chance to have their say but if it doesn't then remain will still win because we will cry and say we can't operate without the EU.  Was that the arrogant attitude that actually happened and they are now in the shit trying to dig their way out of it?

If the consequences were so bad then why did Cameron even allow the vote to happen in the first place?  Why didn't we decide last week to scrap the vote before it happened rather than just run it like a freeroll?

We only voted so that Cameron could win the last election.

[Doobs]

Would all this aftermath honestly have ensued if remain had won? Got to be honest and say I am confused by it all.

No, because nothing much would have changed.  I really don't think it is the end of the world, but I us going to be very messy and unstable for at least the next 6 months.

Don't know if anyone noticed, but the Czech Republic have called on Juncker to resign too.  

Also Juncker's immediate response was to take away those tiny concessions Cameron agreed with Europe.  Don't know if they were contingent on a yes vote to the EU, but it smacked of taking his ball home.

Fun times  

[MANTIS01]

So the future is bleak for every European country not in the EU? Sorry Sweden your future is bleak. How utterly pessimistic and the sort of negative soothsaying that is throwing the aftermath into disarray. Nobody knows end of.

Wtf does the world's 23rd biggest economy have to do with it? As always your persistence is admirable but sometimes you just have to say: "I know nothing about this subject"

Hey mate, just for clarity, a few pages ago you said democracy is important but meh there has to be limits. If that is political 'knowledge' then I'm glad to be ignorant.

[kukushkin88]

One more with this, the strongest trend in any demographic was educated in, uneducated out. I still believe in democracy, but.

[MANTIS01]

So the future is bleak for every European country not in the EU? Sorry Sweden your future is bleak. How utterly pessimistic and the sort of negative soothsaying that is throwing the aftermath into disarray. Nobody knows end of.

oh Christ I am Going to answer a mantis post. The umwinnable path .If nobody knows we shouldn't be taking such an enormous risk. Sweden and Norway have trade deals, business is set up to operate under those terms. Our corporate sector is going to feel a lot of margin pain adjusting. Yours sincerely doctor of economics with I think half a clue!

You may have half a clue but you are terrifically persuaded by your own cleverness and the cleverness of the people that just led the country into this complete farce

+1

What these really clever people don't understand is how they are undermining democracy in a hugely dangerous way. Really clever that.

[taximan007]

Guernsey survives very well from not being in the EU, it's not perfect living here but where is? So why can't the UK? Or are the two not comparable?

[arbboy]

We knew all this last week though before the vote.  Nothing has changed.  So why did we bother with the vote?

I will repeat the question.  WHY DID WE BOTHER TO VOTE?  

Was it a case of thinking leave would't happen and we will freeroll it knowing if remain wins like it should then we are safe and the wagons will have had their chance to have their say but if it doesn't then remain will still win because we will cry and say we can't operate without the EU.  Was that the arrogant attitude that actually happened and they are now in the shit trying to dig their way out of it?

LOL, I can't believe you asked this question.

We voted because Cameron put the referendum in the Tory manefesto, to save about 20 MPs losing their seasts to UKIP.

Then when the coalition negotiations started, it would be the first thing ditched by the Tories to the Lib Dems.

Whoops. The Tories accidentally won an outright majority.

Sure i know and get all that but that isn't my point. Why not just say last week 'no point having the vote whatever we promised you in the past in the manifesto because leave can't win because if it does win it will still lose' and save all the debates and chat.  'Sorry for pretending we were ever going to have a vote because it is too dangerous to leave the EU so we are not going to give you a chance to ruin the country'

Surely this would be better than letting people vote then deciding afterwards that if they win they will still lose? politically PR wise this is way worse than just not allowing the vote in the first place.   Parties go back on their manifesto's all the time so changing their mind on the vote wouldn't be that big a deal if it really is so bad for us to leave the EU.

[The Camel]

We knew all this last week though before the vote.  Nothing has changed.  So why did we bother with the vote?

I will repeat the question.  WHY DID WE BOTHER TO VOTE?  

Was it a case of thinking leave would't happen and we will freeroll it knowing if remain wins like it should then we are safe and the wagons will have had their chance to have their say but if it doesn't then remain will still win because we will cry and say we can't operate without the EU.  Was that the arrogant attitude that actually happened and they are now in the shit trying to dig their way out of it?

LOL, I can't believe you asked this question.

We voted because Cameron put the referendum in the Tory manefesto, to save about 20 MPs losing their seasts to UKIP.

Then when the coalition negotiations started, it would be the first thing ditched by the Tories to the Lib Dems.

Whoops. The Tories accidentally won an outright majority.

Sure i know and get all that but that isn't my point. Why not just say last week 'no point having the vote whatever we promised you in the past in the manifesto because leave can't win because if it does win it will still lose' and save all the debates and chat.  'Sorry for pretending we were ever going to have a vote because it is too dangerous to leave the EU so we are not going to give you a chance to ruin the country'

Surely this would be better than letting people vote then deciding afterwards that if they win they will still lose politically?

Obv Cameron would have liked not to have the referendum..

But once it was in the manifesto, the swivel eyed loons on the right of his party wouldn't let him not running it.

[JohnCharver]

One more with this, the strongest trend in any demographic was educated in, uneducated out. I still believe in democracy, but.

Theres less educated people, surely people with degrees can count .

[kukushkin88]

We knew all this last week though before the vote.  Nothing has changed.  So why did we bother with the vote?

I will repeat the question.  WHY DID WE BOTHER TO VOTE?  

Was it a case of thinking leave would't happen and we will freeroll it knowing if remain wins like it should then we are safe and the wagons will have had their chance to have their say but if it doesn't then remain will still win because we will cry and say we can't operate without the EU.  Was that the arrogant attitude that actually happened and they are now in the shit trying to dig their way out of it?

LOL, I can't believe you asked this question.

We voted because Cameron put the referendum in the Tory manefesto, to save about 20 MPs losing their seasts to UKIP.

Then when the coalition negotiations started, it would be the first thing ditched by the Tories to the Lib Dems.

Whoops. The Tories accidentally won an outright majority.

Sure i know and get all that but that isn't my point. Why not just say last week 'no point having the vote whatever we promised you in the past in the manifesto because leave can't win because if it does win it will still lose' and save all the debates and chat.  'Sorry for pretending we were ever going to have a vote because it is too dangerous to leave the EU so we are not going to give you a chance to ruin the country'

Surely this would be better than letting people vote then deciding afterwards that if they win they will still lose politically?

You must know that couldn't happen. Cameron made a desperate lurch to the right to win an election. Calling it off without a vote would be curtains. When it came to it, he had to gamble.

[nirvana]

If we asked 1000 leave voters pre referendum how long it should take to leave the EU if you won, what do you think the average result would be?

Is it 4 days ?

If they had heard of Article 50, they would have expected it to be triggered within a month and for us to be fully divorced within a year.

The leader of the remain campaign did say he would trigger it immediately so it's understandable that they would think 2 years if they'd read anything previously or 1-2years perhaps if they hadn't.

It will be neither because of Dcams resignation, not because leavers didn't follow through on their promise. I think it suits the leave people by the way, but it doesn't change the reason why it will actually happen more slowly

[arbboy]

We knew all this last week though before the vote.  Nothing has changed.  So why did we bother with the vote?

I will repeat the question.  WHY DID WE BOTHER TO VOTE?  

Was it a case of thinking leave would't happen and we will freeroll it knowing if remain wins like it should then we are safe and the wagons will have had their chance to have their say but if it doesn't then remain will still win because we will cry and say we can't operate without the EU.  Was that the arrogant attitude that actually happened and they are now in the shit trying to dig their way out of it?

LOL, I can't believe you asked this question.

We voted because Cameron put the referendum in the Tory manefesto, to save about 20 MPs losing their seasts to UKIP.

Then when the coalition negotiations started, it would be the first thing ditched by the Tories to the Lib Dems.

Whoops. The Tories accidentally won an outright majority.

Sure i know and get all that but that isn't my point. Why not just say last week 'no point having the vote whatever we promised you in the past in the manifesto because leave can't win because if it does win it will still lose' and save all the debates and chat.  'Sorry for pretending we were ever going to have a vote because it is too dangerous to leave the EU so we are not going to give you a chance to ruin the country'

Surely this would be better than letting people vote then deciding afterwards that if they win they will still lose politically?

You must know that couldn't happen. Cameron made a desperate lurch to the right to win an election. Calling it off without a vote would be curtains. When it came to it, he had to gamble.

It would have been much better to scrap the vote than to run the vote and then say 'fuck you you won but you couldn't really win and you have actually lost'

It is like a bookie not wanting to take a bet from a pro punter but being forced to take it because of conflicting politics within the betting firm but then when it wins saying 'sorry sir we didn't want your bet we only took it because the marketing department was on a turnover bonus to take it and we really didn't think the bet would win so we agreed to take it.  Incredibly the bet won but we are not going to pay you because we didn't want the bet in the first place'

[kukushkin88]

We knew all this last week though before the vote.  Nothing has changed.  So why did we bother with the vote?

I will repeat the question.  WHY DID WE BOTHER TO VOTE?  

Was it a case of thinking leave would't happen and we will freeroll it knowing if remain wins like it should then we are safe and the wagons will have had their chance to have their say but if it doesn't then remain will still win because we will cry and say we can't operate without the EU.  Was that the arrogant attitude that actually happened and they are now in the shit trying to dig their way out of it?

LOL, I can't believe you asked this question.

We voted because Cameron put the referendum in the Tory manefesto, to save about 20 MPs losing their seasts to UKIP.

Then when the coalition negotiations started, it would be the first thing ditched by the Tories to the Lib Dems.

Whoops. The Tories accidentally won an outright majority.

Sure i know and get all that but that isn't my point. Why not just say last week 'no point having the vote whatever we promised you in the past in the manifesto because leave can't win because if it does win it will still lose' and save all the debates and chat.  'Sorry for pretending we were ever going to have a vote because it is too dangerous to leave the EU so we are not going to give you a chance to ruin the country'

Surely this would be better than letting people vote then deciding afterwards that if they win they will still lose politically?

You must know that couldn't happen. Cameron made a desperate lurch to the right to win an election. Calling it off without a vote would be curtains. When it came to it, he had to gamble.

It would have been much better to scrap the vote than to run the vote and then say 'fuck you you won but you couldn't really win and you have actually lost'

It is like a bookie not wanting to take a bet from a pro punter but being forced to take it because of conflicting politics within the betting firm but then when it wins saying 'sorry sir we didn't want your bet so we are not going to pay you'

And I'd be pissed off in that spot. As agreed many times, I think you're a good and smart guy. This one is a mess though, and I reckon you're on the wrong side of it.

[Marky_Crash]

We knew all this last week though before the vote.  Nothing has changed.  So why did we bother with the vote?

I will repeat the question.  WHY DID WE BOTHER TO VOTE?  

Was it a case of thinking leave would't happen and we will freeroll it knowing if remain wins like it should then we are safe and the wagons will have had their chance to have their say but if it doesn't then remain will still win because we will cry and say we can't operate without the EU.  Was that the arrogant attitude that actually happened and they are now in the shit trying to dig their way out of it?

LOL, I can't believe you asked this question.

We voted because Cameron put the referendum in the Tory manefesto, to save about 20 MPs losing their seasts to UKIP.

Then when the coalition negotiations started, it would be the first thing ditched by the Tories to the Lib Dems.

Whoops. The Tories accidentally won an outright majority.

Sure i know and get all that but that isn't my point. Why not just say last week 'no point having the vote whatever we promised you in the past in the manifesto because leave can't win because if it does win it will still lose' and save all the debates and chat.  'Sorry for pretending we were ever going to have a vote because it is too dangerous to leave the EU so we are not going to give you a chance to ruin the country'

Surely this would be better than letting people vote then deciding afterwards that if they win they will still lose politically?

You must know that couldn't happen. Cameron made a desperate lurch to the right to win an election. Calling it off without a vote would be curtains. When it came to it, he had to gamble.

It would have been much better to scrap the vote than to run the vote and then say 'fuck you you won but you couldn't really win and you have actually lost'

It is like a bookie not wanting to take a bet from a pro punter but being forced to take it because of conflicting politics within the betting firm but then when it wins saying 'sorry sir we didn't want your bet we only took it because the marketing department was on a turnover bonus to take it and we really didn't think the bet would win so we agreed to take it.  Incredibly the bet won but we are not going to pay you because we didn't want the bet in the first place'

If he cancelled the vote he would have been completely finished...

If he let it happen then he had a chance to stay in power. Quite a big chance to stay in power, the bookies would give you 6/1+ on an exit vote the evening of the vote.

He took what he thought was a good gamble with the future of the UK so he could serve his own interests.