The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

From the YouGov Scot poll. Tories have half the "No" and "Leave" votes, SNP has lost most of its "No" voters. Implies big swings in NE+Moray

[TightEnd]

Conservative manifesto: Lack of costings leave blanks to be filled in

Labour is crying foul this morning.

The Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell says he's angry the Conservatives haven't given out full costings for their manifesto.

Labour of course, did show us their sums at their launch earlier in the week, and they are on the warpath.

The Tories are vulnerable to claims their plans would hit millions of people, because they will not give out the details of how their plans would actually work.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39973399

[TightEnd]

Latest Westminster voting intention (Scotland)

SNP 42%
CON 29%
LAB 19%
LD 6%
OTH 3%

(Fieldwork 15-18 May)

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/18/voting-intention-scotland-snp-42-con-29-lab-19-15-/

[TightEnd]

The Labour rise continues in recent polls. This would appear to be worrying pollsters more than it’s worrying Tories, given how the former are talking about the possible softness of the Labour vote while the latter plough resources into seats they’ve never won.

https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2017/05/manifesto-movements-continued.html/

[TightEnd]

Tim Farron has a net satisfaction rating of -11, Jeremy Corbyn comes in at -27, according to IpsosMori. Theresa May is popular at +20!

the weekend polls are going to be very interesting, after the shift of policy towards pensioners in the conservative manifesto abnd what it has to be said is a pretty good attack on it by Labour today

we'll see if Labour at 34% in the last poll is the start of a trend, and whether Cons slips from 45-49%

[AndrewT]

Could well be a bit of scope for a bet if this Labour surge in the polls continue because I'm sure it's nothing more than Scotch mist and Theresa May will wafflecrush come election day.

[TightEnd]

SNP’s 10 years in power are looking more like a lost decade. Powerful piece by Alex Salmond's former head of policy

https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/opinion/alex-bell/429005/alex-bell-snps-10-years-power-looking-like-lost-decade/

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

" current working assumption of Labour's elections team is party will be cut down to 140 seats"

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/labours-elections-chief-expects-party-cut-140-seats/

[TightEnd]

Should we believe the opinion polls? This may help

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/opinion-polls-should-we-believe-them-trust-truth-real-fake-news-a7704116.html

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Osborne goes for it again

"Here's our editorial - why can't the Government answer basic questions on the migration pledge?"

http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/evening-standard-comment-the-met-commissioner-has-made-a-good-start-a3543451.html

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

The last time the opinion polls overestimated the Tory share of the vote in a GE was 1983

https://marriott-stats.com/nigels-blog/uk-general-elections-1-how-accurate-are-the-opinion-polls/

horrible graph but i think i understood it in the end!

Click to see full-size image.

i actually think one of my theses this year is the opinion pollsters aren't catching the 18-24 year olds and previous non voters who go for Labour overwhelmingly so its closer than the polls say. could be wrong.

[TightEnd]

this is a tough one for labour

party policy is to keep trident. Corbyn wants to scrap it


Emily Thornberry didn't help much

---

"Labour's divisions over Trident were exposed as the party's defence spokesman clashed with shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry over the future of the nuclear deterrent.

Ms Thornberry indicated the party's support for Trident could not be guaranteed after a defence review if Labour wins the June 8 General Election.

But shadow defence secretary Nia Griffith slapped her down, saying the policy was not Ms Thornberry's responsibility and the shadow foreign secretary was wrong.

Ms Griffith said: "With all due respect, Emily is not the shadow defence secretary. I am."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/20/emily-thornberry-wrong-future-nuclear-deterrent-labours-defence/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw

Emily Thornberry 'wrong' over future of nuclear deterrent, says Labour's defence spokesman

[AndrewT]

i actually think one of my theses this year is the opinion pollsters aren't catching the 18-24 year olds and previous non voters who go for Labour overwhelmingly so its closer than the polls say. could be wrong.

I think the opposite - these kids will be all over the Twitters and the Snapchats with their #grime4corbyn stuff but then won't actually go out and vote whereas Granny Bluerinse will be off out on her zimmerframe at 7am to go and vote for that nice woman with the strong stable.

[nirvana]

i actually think one of my theses this year is the opinion pollsters aren't catching the 18-24 year olds and previous non voters who go for Labour overwhelmingly so its closer than the polls say. could be wrong.

I think the opposite - these kids will be all over the Twitters and the Snapchats with their #grime4corbyn stuff but then won't actually go out and vote whereas Granny Bluerinse will be off out on her zimmerframe at 7am to go and vote for that nice woman with the strong stable.

Be interesting to see but I think Andrew is probably right. I don't think it's possible to overestimate the general lethargy and disinterest in politics of the British population - especially amongst the young

[MintTrav]

i actually think one of my theses this year is the opinion pollsters aren't catching the 18-24 year olds and previous non voters who go for Labour overwhelmingly so its closer than the polls say. could be wrong.

I think the opposite - these kids will be all over the Twitters and the Snapchats with their #grime4corbyn stuff but then won't actually go out and vote whereas Granny Bluerinse will be off out on her zimmerframe at 7am to go and vote for that nice woman with the strong stable.

Be interesting to see but I think Andrew is probably right. I don't think it's possible to overestimate the general lethargy and disinterest in politics of the British population - especially amongst the young

Yep - one of my unexpected culture-shocks when I moved here from a country where everyone discussed politics all the time was finding that very few were interested in discussing it, though that has improved to some extent in the last couple of years.