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Poll
Question: How will you vote on December 12th 2019
Conservative - 19 (33.9%)
Labour - 12 (21.4%)
SNP - 2 (3.6%)
Lib Dem - 8 (14.3%)
Brexit - 1 (1.8%)
Green - 6 (10.7%)
Other - 2 (3.6%)
Spoil - 0 (0%)
Not voting - 6 (10.7%)
Total Voters: 55

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Author Topic: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged  (Read 2180500 times)
TightEnd
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« Reply #9045 on: June 01, 2017, 02:36:09 PM »

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 44% (-4)
LAB: 36% (+3)
LDEM: 7% (-)
UKIP: 5% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+1)

(via PanelbaseMD / 26 May - 01 Jun)
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« Reply #9046 on: June 01, 2017, 02:49:05 PM »

New YouGov London: (change since late April)

Lab 50% (+9)
Con 33% (-3)
Lib Dem 11% (-3)
Ukip 3% (-3)

May 26-31
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« Reply #9047 on: June 01, 2017, 02:59:04 PM »

Political twitter is in a frenzy.

"Labour are going to win"

but it is often an echo chamber of the like minded and the loudest

many not on social media are older, quieter with views and more "conservative"
 
in 2015 at this stage Ed M was going to win, but then shy tories etc etc

so hand on heart, thinking of how young people might vote more but against that the UKIP and older people conservative firewall

what are you thinking? is it on or not for Corbyn? (not does he deserve to, its not about your political views but the question is about your feel of it. we all know May's campaign has been a shocker, but looking for your feel now....)

if its on: largest party? hung parliament? rainbow coalition?  
« Last Edit: June 01, 2017, 03:03:04 PM by TightEnd » Logged

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« Reply #9048 on: June 01, 2017, 03:05:12 PM »

Political twitter is in a frenzy.

"Labour are going to win"

but it is often an echo chamber of the like minded and the loudest

many not on social media are older, quieter with views and more "conservative"
 
in 2015 at this stage Ed M was going to win, but then shy tories etc etc

so hand on heart, thinking of how young people might vote more but against that the UKIP and older people conservative firewall

what are you thinking? is it on or not for Corbyn?

if its on: largest party? hung parliament? rainbow coalition? 

No idea.

The 2015 election was a watershed moment for me personally precisely because of the echo chamber. I was convinced Labour were heading for a landslide, and when they didnt, it compelled me to learn more about politics.

In many ways its de ja vu. However, since then we've had Trump and Brexit, and a wave of anti establishment populism, which I think Corbyn is part of, albeit left leaning.

Corbynistas are much louder, nastier and engaged than the Labour faithful in 2015, so that is (probably unfairly) influencing me a lot to think JC might win.

Main thing for me is that the terrorist sympathising stuff doesn't seem to have put anyone off JC, in fact a lot of people like what he said after Manchester. I would have thought that would have sunk him.

Plus May has been awful.

I've got a decent bit of cash on JC winning because of the anti establishment stuff, but yeah could easy be a landslide for the Tories.

mental times we live in
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« Reply #9049 on: June 01, 2017, 03:07:47 PM »

I dont think he will win, he would be my preference. 

If it were a presidental style elction then I think he wins hands down. 
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« Reply #9050 on: June 01, 2017, 03:19:34 PM »


How can it not be a large tory majority?

...a dream opposition of Corbyn backed up by Abbott and McDonnell

....UKIP votes flooding across to Tory

...Scotland resurgence...maybe 10 seats.

....LibDems going no where fast.

...a leader with vast experience of Government, hailed as as the new Maggie.


and yet it doesn't feel anything like that at the moment.

Tory majority of 20 to 30 if you had to pin me down.
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« Reply #9051 on: June 01, 2017, 03:23:23 PM »

I think the Tories win with an increased majority. I will vote Labour because they most closely represent my views, especially with a Euro sceptic at the helm a la Benn, Foot. But even when I vote I will have a slight sense of unease in a few areas..unpleasant ideologues close to the leadership, brainwashed for 40 years about labours economic incompetence, it is a tough time to Govern with Brexit on the horizon and I have more faith in the incumbent team ( rather than may) to get through things reasonably well.

I reckon a lot of people will share my unease and won't overcome it to vote Labour this time
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« Reply #9052 on: June 01, 2017, 03:26:18 PM »

Why are young people suddenly going to start voting now when they never have before?

If they do then Labour have a chance but I seriously doubt anything has changed.
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« Reply #9053 on: June 01, 2017, 03:42:39 PM »

Why are young people suddenly going to start voting now when they never have before?

If they do then Labour have a chance but I seriously doubt anything has changed.

They probably didn't think we would ever leave the EU or that Trump would get in so realise now more than ever that their vote is important.
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« Reply #9054 on: June 01, 2017, 03:59:33 PM »

Political twitter is in a frenzy.

"Labour are going to win"

but it is often an echo chamber of the like minded and the loudest

many not on social media are older, quieter with views and more "conservative"
 
in 2015 at this stage Ed M was going to win, but then shy tories etc etc

so hand on heart, thinking of how young people might vote more but against that the UKIP and older people conservative firewall

what are you thinking? is it on or not for Corbyn? (not does he deserve to, its not about your political views but the question is about your feel of it. we all know May's campaign has been a shocker, but looking for your feel now....)

if its on: largest party? hung parliament? rainbow coalition?  

Tory majority of 50-100 seats, would be my guess.

What I'm seeing in the polling is mirrored by my experience on social media, in that people who were anti-Corbyn, but natural Labour supporters have generally come around to be pro-Labour over the last few weeks (Camel being an example of the sort of thing I'm seeing on Facebook).

However, I can't get carried away by the polling and, much as a hung parliament would be my ideal result, given that I don't like either option with a majority I think the actual result will show up the shy-Tory effect again.

My scepticism on this is that I'm forever haunted by the 1992 election (which I missed being able to vote in by 2 months) when a fateful pre-election Labour rally had too much of a celebratory feel to it and effectively brought out the Tory vote on polling day.  The devastation of seeing them elected again after the debacle of the Poll Tax in the previous Parliament taught me that the outcome matters far less on how shit the Tories are than on how credible Labour are perceived as the alternative.  Theresa May is doing an excellent job of eroding her carefully managed image of apparent credibility, but ultimately I suspect just enough of them will ignore this and stick with the Tories to give them a workable majority.

Amber Rudd's comment, which you picked up on, about the 'quiet of the polling booth' was quite telling, in that regard.
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« Reply #9055 on: June 01, 2017, 04:19:56 PM »

Would be interesting to see how people here think it will end up. Mine is a Tory majority of 70-80.
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« Reply #9056 on: June 01, 2017, 05:00:11 PM »




...Scotland resurgence...maybe 10 seats.



Lol.  This is a myth.  It's not happening.  Lucky to scrape 4  seats. 
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« Reply #9057 on: June 01, 2017, 05:31:23 PM »

Tory majority of around 50, which would have been more like 150 at the start of the campaign. I think Labour have fought a decent campaign and have brought round those of us who are normally labour voters but were looking for new homes. I am just about to head out to the Croydon Central hustings (very tight marignal) and was intially doing so to size up the progressive candidates but now almost certain to vote Labour.
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« Reply #9058 on: June 01, 2017, 05:53:02 PM »

As I said earlier, I've had a punt on 401-425 tory seats, which would be a comfortable 3 figure majority. They'll pick up loads of votes from 2015 UKIP supporters in the marginals, with only losing a handful the other way as the Lib Dems hoped-for surge isn't happening.

Corbyn will rack up increased majorities in solid red seats, gaining him very few extra seats.

There's also still time for a last minute super-negative message from the Tories that hits home, along the lines of the 'Vote Miliband, Get Salmond' one from 2015, though this one will be more like 'Vote Corbyn, Get Nicola/IRA/ISIS/Rasputin/Whoever'
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« Reply #9059 on: June 01, 2017, 06:01:27 PM »

Nuttall and UKIP going to gift TM her increased power.  Incredible how bad Nuttall is at times for a leader.  Surely the party will never be invited to a TV debate again after this GE?  They are a total waste of time from here on in.
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