The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[Pokerpops]

My Christmas Ham joint needs Whisky Marmalade.

[Pokerpops]

It’s a shame that Gibson Index Ltd hasn’t managed to share in all this economic success...

[Tal]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-46481643

Will this affect tomorrow's vote?

[Woodsey]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-46481643

Will this affect tomorrow's vote?

No, it will get voted down anyway, might give no a bigger majority though....

[doubleup]

"The UK’s unnoticed export boom underlines why a no-deal Brexit is nothing to fear"

Marcus Gibson was for a number of years a journalist and correspondent for BBC Radio 4, The European and later the Financial Times and soon became aware of the strongly anti-UK attitudes prevalent in Brussels and much of the EU. In 2003 he started Gibson Index Ltd, a research house based in Mayfair that catalogues the tens of thousands of highly successful SMEs, entrepreneurs and pioneering innovation trends across the UK.

A true economic miracle is happening. An extraordinary leap in the UK’s global export trade has occurred – a complete reverse of the ‘Doomsday’ predictions of the Treasury, Bank of England and Department for Business in London both before after the Brexit vote.

According to figures published by the UK Office of National Statistics in November – in the second calendar year following the EU referendum – exports to non-EU countries were £342 billion while exports to EU countries were £274 billion.

In the same period, the growth in exports continued to outstrip the growth in imports, almost halving the UK’s trade deficit from £23.4 billion to £15.8 billion. Most exceptionally, since the referendum, exports have increased by £111 billion to £610 billion.

Doubters will say it is a temporary blip caused by the falling pound. Not true. The boom is in new markets, and largely in new products and services, too. UK exports not just increased but doubled in hitherto obscure countries such as Oman and Macedonia. Exports to distant Kazakhstan climbed to $2 billion, only slightly less than the UK’s exports to Austria, worth $2.43 billion in 2017, which like many EU nations buys very little from the UK.

In the 12 months to September, the value of UK exports grew by some 4.4%, including strong growth in the manufacturing sector. Indeed, HMRC stated that exports of goods had shown “robust growth in every single region of the UK”. The number of Welsh SMEs which export doubled during the last two years to 52%.

Curiously, none of this has been spotted by any of the UK’s headline media – the BBC, Sky News or the FT. Not a peep from the new editor of the Daily Mail. Even The Economist was asleep on the job. Meanwhile, various government departments are spending much of their time issuing ‘Death in Brexit’ forecasts in a co-ordinated campaign with the Bank of England and other allies – and rarely champion our achievements.

Four years ago I was interviewed by Richard Cockett, The Economist’s UK business editor. I told him the UK was experiencing an unparalleled SME boom. How did I know, he asked? Since leaving the FT as a technology correspondent and columnist in 2003, my small team in central London has maintained a uniquely comprehensive database of more than 70,000 UK smaller companies.

As a result, daily we receive an avalanche of success stories. In the food and drink sector alone, if you want whisky marmalade or beetroot ketchup, or 500 new gin varieties or more than 1,000 new craft beers launched since 2011, our very brave, risk-adoring micro-SMEs will deliver.

If a New York cathedral needs a new, hand-made organ that £3 million contract comes to Britain. We sell sand to Saudi Arabia, china to China, and Turkish delight to Turkey. In the ultra-competitive auto components sector, UK exports are up 20%. Luxury goods, consumer goods, clever instrumentation for NASA and crucial cerebral input into US defence projects are all avidly listed in our dataset.

And yet, in our view the true importance of the export boom is as much political as economic. It proves that a No-Deal exit from the EU – or what I much prefer to call ‘Our Own Deal’ – is by far the best option, and far less damaging and disruptive than the ‘experts’ at the Bank of England, IoD, CBI, OECD and World Bank have forecast.

Far from being the ‘poverty and isolation’ scenario predicted by the chin tremblers who endlessly appear on Radio 4, the UK will be far less dependent on the EU in as little as five years.

Fears about UK-made cars from Japanese firms such as Nissan and Toyota being cut off from Europe are groundless. First, the UK could retaliate against BMW and VW – something no post-Merkel German politician would tolerate. Any anti-Japanese actions by the French would result in the rapid diminution of the £4 billion annual exports of French cosmetics to Japan. And the French know it, no matter what Macron might bluster.

But the export explosion is not the only piece of recent great news for the UK – there is more. First, in October 2018 Japan’s Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, invited the UK to become part of the Pacific free trade pact – although this is dependent on the UK leaving the EU’s Customs Union. It would make the UK the sole geographically-distant member of the grouping, helping the country to rebuild trading links around the Pacific Ocean that stretch back more than two centuries.

Next, BP’s huge Claire Ridge oilfield, west of the Shetlands, just came on stream, providing no less than £42 billion in revenues over the next 25 years. It is a development much envied across energy-starved Europe – and there are more oilfields to come.

At this critical moment in the Brexit saga, it is vital the UK now wakes up to the much brighter future it has outside of the EU, and vital that Mrs May copies the bravery of our SME exporters. The so-called ‘No-Deal’, a term that needlessly frightens ordinary citizens, should indeed be re-named ‘Our Own Deal’, in which we invite all nations to trade with us on fair trade, low or no tariff, basis.

The UK economy will soon be in a solidly secure position to refuse any damaging ‘deal’ from the European Commission. Perhaps it was always the height of imbecility to think we could ever get a good deal from the Commission. Finally, the tide of history is in our favour, even in Europe. The current, sub-optimal generation of European politicians – Cameron, Merkel, Juncker – will soon ‘be history’. Merkel goes next year – and every EU Commissioner will be replaced, too. For hundreds of thousands of small UK companies, a complete split from the EU can’t come soon enough.

This article is pretty good cameo of how a brexiter lies and of course how their gullible supporter agrees without question. 

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/balance-of-trade - there is no evidence of an export miracle silent or otherwise, which is probably why "the BBC, Sky News or the FT" haven't reported it. 

The writer also doesn't understand or refuses to acknowledge the regulatory realities of no deal, refuses to understand that Japanese cars aren't "cut-off" and the UK can't "cut-off" German cars in retaliation.  WTO terms means tariffs on both sides and various non-tariff barriers.  To impose "retaliation" would be illegal.  It will simply be a matter of practicalities - a car completely manufactured on the continent will pay tariffs only once.  A UK car made from cross-border processes will pay tariffs more than once and face considerable delays at the border.  Within a year of no deal being announced most major UK car manufacturers will be announcing plans to move to the EU just as banks have been moving operations over the last year.

The bizarre use of Austria with its 9m population as proof that we don't export much to Europe takes first prize though.  Here is the reality https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports-by-country

I sometimes hope that no deal actually happens so that clowns like this author can be made to face the consequences of their delusion.

[MANTIS01]

I posted the article without comment. People are free to debate and question

Your own headline ...Clown Lies & Gullible supporter agrees without question

Stock venomous attitude of Remain and blatantly untrue (whilst whining about untruths) lol

The reality is Remain want to hog this thread and post multiple biased untrue articles every day. Any Remain article for balance gets lambasted by the real clowns who only want to insult folk and try to reverse a democratic decision.

This is a time where the country needs leaders and courage. Not Remainers who tremble in their boots. My advice to Remain is to visit the GP now and see if he/she can prescribe 2x testicles because there is going to be a medical shortage after Brexit don’t forget

[doubleup]

I said that the article was a typical of brexit fibitorial and posted links to demonstrate this.  I don't see you refuting the links just giving more of the same f-cking crap.

[DMorgan]

In the same period, the growth in exports continued to outstrip the growth in imports, almost halving the UK’s trade deficit from £23.4 billion to £15.8 billion

Alarm bells for a puff piece 3 lines in... 

[MANTIS01]

I said that the article was a typical of brexit fibitorial and posted links to demonstrate this.  I don't see you refuting the links just giving more of the same f-cking crap.

I’m not in the business of refuting links

I’m in the business of having big testicles

[TightEnd]

"The UK’s unnoticed export boom underlines why a no-deal Brexit is nothing to fear"

Marcus Gibson was for a number of years a journalist and correspondent for BBC Radio 4, The European and later the Financial Times and soon became aware of the strongly anti-UK attitudes prevalent in Brussels and much of the EU. In 2003 he started Gibson Index Ltd, a research house based in Mayfair that catalogues the tens of thousands of highly successful SMEs, entrepreneurs and pioneering innovation trends across the UK.

A true economic miracle is happening. An extraordinary leap in the UK’s global export trade has occurred – a complete reverse of the ‘Doomsday’ predictions of the Treasury, Bank of England and Department for Business in London both before after the Brexit vote.

According to figures published by the UK Office of National Statistics in November – in the second calendar year following the EU referendum – exports to non-EU countries were £342 billion while exports to EU countries were £274 billion.

In the same period, the growth in exports continued to outstrip the growth in imports, almost halving the UK’s trade deficit from £23.4 billion to £15.8 billion. Most exceptionally, since the referendum, exports have increased by £111 billion to £610 billion.

Doubters will say it is a temporary blip caused by the falling pound. Not true. The boom is in new markets, and largely in new products and services, too. UK exports not just increased but doubled in hitherto obscure countries such as Oman and Macedonia. Exports to distant Kazakhstan climbed to $2 billion, only slightly less than the UK’s exports to Austria, worth $2.43 billion in 2017, which like many EU nations buys very little from the UK.

In the 12 months to September, the value of UK exports grew by some 4.4%, including strong growth in the manufacturing sector. Indeed, HMRC stated that exports of goods had shown “robust growth in every single region of the UK”. The number of Welsh SMEs which export doubled during the last two years to 52%.

Curiously, none of this has been spotted by any of the UK’s headline media – the BBC, Sky News or the FT. Not a peep from the new editor of the Daily Mail. Even The Economist was asleep on the job. Meanwhile, various government departments are spending much of their time issuing ‘Death in Brexit’ forecasts in a co-ordinated campaign with the Bank of England and other allies – and rarely champion our achievements.

Four years ago I was interviewed by Richard Cockett, The Economist’s UK business editor. I told him the UK was experiencing an unparalleled SME boom. How did I know, he asked? Since leaving the FT as a technology correspondent and columnist in 2003, my small team in central London has maintained a uniquely comprehensive database of more than 70,000 UK smaller companies.

As a result, daily we receive an avalanche of success stories. In the food and drink sector alone, if you want whisky marmalade or beetroot ketchup, or 500 new gin varieties or more than 1,000 new craft beers launched since 2011, our very brave, risk-adoring micro-SMEs will deliver.

If a New York cathedral needs a new, hand-made organ that £3 million contract comes to Britain. We sell sand to Saudi Arabia, china to China, and Turkish delight to Turkey. In the ultra-competitive auto components sector, UK exports are up 20%. Luxury goods, consumer goods, clever instrumentation for NASA and crucial cerebral input into US defence projects are all avidly listed in our dataset.

And yet, in our view the true importance of the export boom is as much political as economic. It proves that a No-Deal exit from the EU – or what I much prefer to call ‘Our Own Deal’ – is by far the best option, and far less damaging and disruptive than the ‘experts’ at the Bank of England, IoD, CBI, OECD and World Bank have forecast.

Far from being the ‘poverty and isolation’ scenario predicted by the chin tremblers who endlessly appear on Radio 4, the UK will be far less dependent on the EU in as little as five years.

Fears about UK-made cars from Japanese firms such as Nissan and Toyota being cut off from Europe are groundless. First, the UK could retaliate against BMW and VW – something no post-Merkel German politician would tolerate. Any anti-Japanese actions by the French would result in the rapid diminution of the £4 billion annual exports of French cosmetics to Japan. And the French know it, no matter what Macron might bluster.

But the export explosion is not the only piece of recent great news for the UK – there is more. First, in October 2018 Japan’s Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, invited the UK to become part of the Pacific free trade pact – although this is dependent on the UK leaving the EU’s Customs Union. It would make the UK the sole geographically-distant member of the grouping, helping the country to rebuild trading links around the Pacific Ocean that stretch back more than two centuries.

Next, BP’s huge Claire Ridge oilfield, west of the Shetlands, just came on stream, providing no less than £42 billion in revenues over the next 25 years. It is a development much envied across energy-starved Europe – and there are more oilfields to come.

At this critical moment in the Brexit saga, it is vital the UK now wakes up to the much brighter future it has outside of the EU, and vital that Mrs May copies the bravery of our SME exporters. The so-called ‘No-Deal’, a term that needlessly frightens ordinary citizens, should indeed be re-named ‘Our Own Deal’, in which we invite all nations to trade with us on fair trade, low or no tariff, basis.

The UK economy will soon be in a solidly secure position to refuse any damaging ‘deal’ from the European Commission. Perhaps it was always the height of imbecility to think we could ever get a good deal from the Commission. Finally, the tide of history is in our favour, even in Europe. The current, sub-optimal generation of European politicians – Cameron, Merkel, Juncker – will soon ‘be history’. Merkel goes next year – and every EU Commissioner will be replaced, too. For hundreds of thousands of small UK companies, a complete split from the EU can’t come soon enough.

Hi in future could you please stick a link up and not repeat verbatim a whole article? by all means quote a paragraph or screenshot one or a couple of quotes etc

think that's best practice when a third party uses an article, the original source gets the clicks for their traffic that way

[TightEnd]

Cabinet ministers put on standby for emergency conference call with PM in next half hour

decision to pull meaningful vote or not imminent

[TightEnd]

Article 50 case: The European Court of Justice has stood up for British sovereignty

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/12/10/article-50-ruling-shows-the-ecj-respects-sovereignty-more-th

could of course be only academic, but unilateral revocation is at least a notional possibility now

[MANTIS01]

I thought Remain lolled at the concept of British sovereignty? 

[MANTIS01]

And in terms of lies being told I do think talk of magic and unicorns is the biggest

Unions are made by people and negotiations are conducted by people and deals are struck by people.

To suggest there are mystical forces at work that prevent a better deal is fantastical.

Yep Remain suggest the first vote was borne out of ignorance and lies but if we do get to a second vote I don't see how the decision isn't corrupt after manipulating gullible people with threats of plague, the sky falling in and talk of wizards.

Opponents of democracy will be delighted by this turn of events.

[TightEnd]

I thought Remain lolled at the concept of British sovereignty? 

far from it, if you had read some of the multitude of sensible links posted from all perspectives on a daily basis you'd know that but thanks for the chance to clarify.

 As has been repeatedly said pooling some sovereignty in the EU has tangible benefits and leaving thinking you gain sovereignty is mistaken. Indeed it is likely that it leads to complete loss of sovereignty over some parts of the union earlier than would be the case in the EU