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Poll
Question: How will you vote on December 12th 2019
Conservative - 19 (33.9%)
Labour - 12 (21.4%)
SNP - 2 (3.6%)
Lib Dem - 8 (14.3%)
Brexit - 1 (1.8%)
Green - 6 (10.7%)
Other - 2 (3.6%)
Spoil - 0 (0%)
Not voting - 6 (10.7%)
Total Voters: 55

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Author Topic: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged  (Read 2181154 times)
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« Reply #17175 on: April 12, 2019, 01:09:17 PM »

Farage's new party website :/

https://thebrexitparty.com

 stirthepot stirthepot

 
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« Reply #17176 on: April 13, 2019, 10:02:08 AM »

Westminster voting intention (ft. new parties):

LAB: 32% (+1)
CON: 28% (-4)
LDEM: 11% (-1)
BREX: 8% (+3)
UKIP: 6% (-1)
CHUK: 3% (+3)
GRN: 3% (-1)

via @YouGov, 10 - 11 Apr
Chgs. w/ 03 Apr

First Labour lead with YouGov since July 2018.


the tories get decimated in the Euro elections do they not? Brexiteers go to the smaller parties, remainers less likely to be Tory anyway.

In fact not sure Labour do well either. could be some freakish looking results and wins by small/new parties
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« Reply #17177 on: April 13, 2019, 10:05:54 AM »

"Brexit has broken the system – prepare for a European-style realignment of politics"

Goodhart: "a low immigration, high-ish public spending party that throws money at universal credit, builds more social housing & nationalises social care (to save the middle classes having to sell their homes) would be a potentially popular British version of Christian Democracy"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/13/brexit-has-broken-system-prepare-european-style-realignment/

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« Reply #17178 on: April 14, 2019, 11:26:25 AM »

If No Deal is unacceptable (can't pass in this commons, might pass in a commons with a tory election outright majority, but would suggest that's unlikely) and the Deal unpalatable (failed to pass three times, Lab and Con struggling to find a compromise plan) then the only other ultimate outcome for Brexit is revocation.

There is no other end.

UK politics between now and Hallowe'en is about how well this stark inescapable fact is addressed.

I doubt it will be quickly but should be more fun and games after the summer hols
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« Reply #17179 on: April 14, 2019, 11:26:51 AM »

One of the most bizarre elements of the Brexit debate is the way a No Deal Brexit has come to be defined as the only ‘Real Brexit’.

Especially as during the referendum the Brexiteers claimed a No Deal scenario was merely a construct of Project Fear.
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« Reply #17180 on: April 14, 2019, 11:30:07 AM »

the classic Simpsons episode ‘Bart Gets An Elephant’. It is 25 years old, but a parable for our times.

Bart wins a radio station phone-in and is given a binary choice: $10,000 in cash or a full grown African elephant.

Bart chooses the elephant.

The radio people are shocked. No one was supposed to pick the elephant. There is no elephant.

So they try to negotiate (‘We think we know how your mind works, Bart’) and offer other alternatives which are equally stupid, but less costly and destructive.

These include paying the $10,000 dollars to Bart’s school principal, who agrees to pull his trousers down for a whole term, or using the money to surgically transform the principal into ‘some kind of lobster-like creature’.

But Bart refuses all compromise, and just keeps shouting ‘Where’s my elephant?’ His voice is so loud it can be heard over the top of the record played by the station to drown him out.

The people listening to the radio in the old folks’ home are delighted with misplaced nostalgia: ‘Hey, they’re playing the elephant song!’ says one. ‘I love that one – reminds me of elephants’ says another.

Bart’s chant soon gets taken up by the media. “Isn’t that what we’re all asking in our own lives?” says TV anchorman Kent Brockman. “Where’s my elephant?”

Eventually, to keep their jobs, the radio people crumple and get Bart a fully grown African elephant.

Despite Bart’s continued enthusiasm, it is a disaster. It immediately smashes into the side of the Simpsons’ house, causing massive structural damage. It smells ‘worse than anything’. But the biggest problem is the elephant – now named Stampy – is economically unviable.

He costs $1,000 dollars a week to feed and maintain, and efforts to make him pay for himself raise only tiny sums.

“$58 and all of it profit!” declares a delighted Homer, “I’m the smartest businessman in the world!”

“Stampy’s food bill today was $300” replies Marge.

And so the Simpsons are forced to give up the elephant. Homer wants to sell him to an ivory dealer, Mr Blackheart. A former President of the Fox Network, he is the only character in the story who stands to make money. Bart runs away with Stampy, leaving a trail of destruction.

Eventually, Homer agrees to do the morally right thing and gives Stampy to an animal refuge.

So the Simpsons end up with no elephant, just bills for hundreds of thousands of dollars, having alienated their neighbours and trashed the entire neighbourhood

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« Reply #17181 on: April 14, 2019, 11:31:34 AM »

A fantastic graph from you gov

Labour is losing voters to Remain and Don't Know but not to Leave. Does this mean Labour Leave voters are sticky? That Labour's Brexit stance over-caters to Leave voters? Or that Labour's Brexit stance isn't about electability?
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« Reply #17182 on: April 14, 2019, 11:40:23 AM »

the classic Simpsons episode ‘Bart Gets An Elephant’. It is 25 years old, but a parable for our times.

Bart wins a radio station phone-in and is given a binary choice: $10,000 in cash or a full grown African elephant.

Bart chooses the elephant.

The radio people are shocked. No one was supposed to pick the elephant. There is no elephant.

So they try to negotiate (‘We think we know how your mind works, Bart’) and offer other alternatives which are equally stupid, but less costly and destructive.

These include paying the $10,000 dollars to Bart’s school principal, who agrees to pull his trousers down for a whole term, or using the money to surgically transform the principal into ‘some kind of lobster-like creature’.

But Bart refuses all compromise, and just keeps shouting ‘Where’s my elephant?’ His voice is so loud it can be heard over the top of the record played by the station to drown him out.

The people listening to the radio in the old folks’ home are delighted with misplaced nostalgia: ‘Hey, they’re playing the elephant song!’ says one. ‘I love that one – reminds me of elephants’ says another.

Bart’s chant soon gets taken up by the media. “Isn’t that what we’re all asking in our own lives?” says TV anchorman Kent Brockman. “Where’s my elephant?”

Eventually, to keep their jobs, the radio people crumple and get Bart a fully grown African elephant.

Despite Bart’s continued enthusiasm, it is a disaster. It immediately smashes into the side of the Simpsons’ house, causing massive structural damage. It smells ‘worse than anything’. But the biggest problem is the elephant – now named Stampy – is economically unviable.

He costs $1,000 dollars a week to feed and maintain, and efforts to make him pay for himself raise only tiny sums.

“$58 and all of it profit!” declares a delighted Homer, “I’m the smartest businessman in the world!”

“Stampy’s food bill today was $300” replies Marge.

And so the Simpsons are forced to give up the elephant. Homer wants to sell him to an ivory dealer, Mr Blackheart. A former President of the Fox Network, he is the only character in the story who stands to make money. Bart runs away with Stampy, leaving a trail of destruction.

Eventually, Homer agrees to do the morally right thing and gives Stampy to an animal refuge.

So the Simpsons end up with no elephant, just bills for hundreds of thousands of dollars, having alienated their neighbours and trashed the entire neighbourhood




Best explanation of Brexit I've ever seen.
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« Reply #17183 on: April 14, 2019, 11:47:00 AM »

Or that Labour's Brexit stance isn't about electability?

There's an argument that none of Labour's stances are about electability.

 
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« Reply #17184 on: April 14, 2019, 12:12:24 PM »

One of the most bizarre elements of the Brexit debate is the way a No Deal Brexit has come to be defined as the only ‘Real Brexit’.

Especially as during the referendum the Brexiteers claimed a No Deal scenario was merely a construct of Project Fear.

Is that true? In the negotiation No Deal was an option that was supposed to ensure the leverage which allowed both parties to arrive at compromise. Unless we negotiated with clear sight of all options we would've been at a disadvantage. Being a bad outcome for both sides it appeared a very unlikely conclusion to discussions rather than a construct of project fear.

What we failed to register was in a world full of people stupid things can happen. Our side was represented by Theresa May who was a poor negotiator and a Remainer together with parliament who are majority Remain. Rather than unite to deliver the vote this recipe created weakness and self interest. The EU side was populated by stubborn dinosaurs who wanted to appear badass, send a warning and teach us a lesson. Again weakness to arrive at compromise for the common good and self interest ruled the day. This weird concoction of variables lead to a very undesirable outcome for everybody. To revoke the result of the vote because of weak, selfish, self-interested people who lack any semblance of leadership would be an even more terrible outcome imo. No Deal isn't a definition of a real Brexit, it's the only alternative people have produced.

There was a group of homeless tramps who all lived together under a bridge. At the end of the day they all returned to the bridge after a day of begging. One had some potatoes, one had some carrots, one had some turnips and one had a cabbage. In partnership they decided to make a soup. As the water boiled they all approached the pan one by one to drop in their contribution for the common good. Potato tramp didn't drop in his spuds because he figured they wouldn't be missed, turnip tramp did the same, as did carrot tramp and cabbage tramp. When the soup was ready they all sat around slurping boiled water pretending to each other it was a mighty fine soup. It wasn't a stupid idea to make the soup and success was possible, just the ingredient of selfish, self-interested people ruined the plan and hot water was the only alternative these idiots produced.
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« Reply #17185 on: April 14, 2019, 02:03:49 PM »

If No Deal is unacceptable (can't pass in this commons, might pass in a commons with a tory election outright majority, but would suggest that's unlikely) and the Deal unpalatable (failed to pass three times, Lab and Con struggling to find a compromise plan) then the only other ultimate outcome for Brexit is revocation.

There is no other end.

UK politics between now and Hallowe'en is about how well this stark inescapable fact is addressed.

I doubt it will be quickly but should be more fun and games after the summer hols

I would love it if parliament had the collective strength of character and purpose to revoke. It would be the clearest signal that:

a) it was the most craven political act to hold a referendum in the first place - voted for by 544 MPs and passed in the Lords - perhaps only the SNP can hold their heads high.
b) it would end all the fatuous, disingenuous talk of peoples vote (morphed now into the less antagonistic put it back to the people or confirmatory ballot)

I think it's far more likely that they will continue their cowardly ways and make a far worse error in arranging a second referendum or calling a GE that will result in a second referendum - the result of which is by no means certain.


Hope I'm wrong and they just revoke as the better alternative imo (ie leave with no deal) is never going to happen.
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« Reply #17186 on: April 14, 2019, 02:12:44 PM »

One of the most bizarre elements of the Brexit debate is the way a No Deal Brexit has come to be defined as the only ‘Real Brexit’.

Especially as during the referendum the Brexiteers claimed a No Deal scenario was merely a construct of Project Fear.

Agree with the first bit obv. The second bit is much less clear i think. Most people were thinking about the discussions about a trade deal and future relationship in saying that no deal was a project fear construct and would have reasonably expected that both sides would enter into serious talks immediately predicated on the belief that it was a 'FACT' that we were leaving.

I don't think anyone reckoned with the A50 rules or the way they have been gamed by the EU (to some extent) and to a huge extent by our (remain) parliament to arrive at a scenario where massive barriers to leaving and even discussing future trade have been erected so not a minute has been spent discussing a future trade deal.
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« Reply #17187 on: April 20, 2019, 09:21:27 PM »

I’ll all for smashing the shit out out dimwit Diane Abbott when it’s deserved as often has been the case in the past, but drinking on the underground ffs.....the wankers chasing her around about that need to get a life and find something more important to chase her about......
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« Reply #17188 on: April 20, 2019, 09:44:45 PM »

I’ll all for smashing the shit out out dimwit Diane Abbott when it’s deserved as often has been the case in the past, but drinking on the underground ffs.....the wankers chasing her around about that need to get a life and find something more important to chase her about......


Agree, she hangs herself easy enough. She gets a pass from me for this.
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« Reply #17189 on: April 26, 2019, 09:59:46 PM »

What do we think of Corbyn refusing to dine with the Donald then?

Seems like classic Corbyn to me - all very principaled, but not very practical.
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