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Poll
Question: How will you vote on December 12th 2019
Conservative - 19 (33.9%)
Labour - 12 (21.4%)
SNP - 2 (3.6%)
Lib Dem - 8 (14.3%)
Brexit - 1 (1.8%)
Green - 6 (10.7%)
Other - 2 (3.6%)
Spoil - 0 (0%)
Not voting - 6 (10.7%)
Total Voters: 56

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Author Topic: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged  (Read 1328594 times)
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« Reply #19485 on: August 05, 2019, 01:25:24 PM »

Elaborate plan from influential Irish journalist who was no fan of Brussels approach to €-crisis, to crystallise a Commons majority against essentially Johnson’s exec powers to pursue No Deal, by persuading Sinn Fein to stand aside temporarily & force 7 NI by elections...

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-ireland-can-stop-a-no-deal-brexit-here-s-how-1.3972121#.XURE8WC2YKQ.twitter


never seen that mentioned before
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« Reply #19486 on: August 05, 2019, 02:54:00 PM »

It won’t happen because Sinn Fein want a no-deal Brexit as the ensuing chaos will bring a united Ireland closer.
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« Reply #19487 on: August 05, 2019, 04:04:30 PM »

It won’t happen because Sinn Fein want a no-deal Brexit as the ensuing chaos will bring a united Ireland closer.

Yes ok

Why would you say therefore that the DUP are supporting a government who in current rhetoric (even if it is brinkmanship) are leading us down a no deal path that threatens the Union in Ireland and maybe in time the rest of the UK too?
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« Reply #19488 on: August 05, 2019, 07:06:20 PM »

It won’t happen because Sinn Fein want a no-deal Brexit as the ensuing chaos will bring a united Ireland closer.

Yes ok

Why would you say therefore that the DUP are supporting a government who in current rhetoric (even if it is brinkmanship) are leading us down a no deal path that threatens the Union in Ireland and maybe in time the rest of the UK too?

The DUP propped up the Tories because to do otherwise risked Corbyn as PM, a man who has called for a united Ireland in the past. At least a Tory PM would resist calls for a border poll for longer than Corbyn would.

Also, it was a great victory for them in the short-term - a billion quid for Northern Ireland and a chance to punch above their weight at a national level. Maybe they just gave no thought to a no-deal Brexit - they have a long history of winning hard negotiations with intransigence and just assumed that at some point the EU would cave in.
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« Reply #19489 on: August 05, 2019, 07:52:44 PM »

How far do you think sterling could fall? (link: https://econ.st/2KupUcz)





I think 1.1 is the accepted answer to that question then slowly rising again as 'other' deals are made in 2020.
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« Reply #19490 on: August 06, 2019, 10:46:09 AM »

Forgive me if I've missed the answer to this, but how can parliament prevent no deal if Boris doesn't re open negotiations and doesn't ask for an extension?
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« Reply #19491 on: August 06, 2019, 10:54:09 AM »

Forgive me if I've missed the answer to this, but how can parliament prevent no deal if Boris doesn't re open negotiations and doesn't ask for an extension?

It isn’t actually clear if they can. The theory is that he loses the vote of no confidence, requiring a caretaker PM. The (perfectly) credible suggestion is that he can just tough it out and a GE follows but we do leave on 31/10/2019. Cummings thinks you need to burn it down if you’re going to rebuild it, it will be an interesting time if we get to find out whether Boris has the balls to let that play out. Most likely with faux reluctance and even fauxer (sic) deep regret, he asks the EU for an extension to allow for a GE.
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« Reply #19492 on: August 06, 2019, 11:23:49 AM »

Forgive me if I've missed the answer to this, but how can parliament prevent no deal if Boris doesn't re open negotiations and doesn't ask for an extension?

It isn’t actually clear if they can. The theory is that he loses the vote of no confidence, requiring a caretaker PM. The (perfectly) credible suggestion is that he can just tough it out and a GE follows but we do leave on 31/10/2019. Cummings thinks you need to burn it down if you’re going to rebuild it, it will be an interesting time if we get to find out whether Boris has the balls to let that play out. Most likely with faux reluctance and even fauxer (sic) deep regret, he asks the EU for an extension to allow for a GE.

Thanks.

I have to say, whatever anyone's party or viewpoint, the whole thing is an absolutely monumental shambles.
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« Reply #19493 on: August 06, 2019, 11:50:12 AM »

Does Boris Johnson have to resign as prime minister if he loses a confidence vote? The answer is complicated

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/08/does-boris-johnson-have-resign-prime-minister-if-he-loses-confidence-vote
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« Reply #19494 on: August 06, 2019, 11:51:24 AM »

Toby Young says

"if Boris loses a VoNC he won’t resign; he’ll run down the clock until he loses a VoC and then call an election, with polling day after Oct 31st." For chapter and verse, see blog in the spectator

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/08/should-brexiteers-try-and-form-an-electoral-pact/
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« Reply #19495 on: August 06, 2019, 11:56:12 AM »

so, leaving aside whether Parliament can stop no deal or not

The Guardian asks

"Boris Johnson has no intention of renegotiating Brexit deal, EU told

So why is the Prime Minister’s entire leadership based on a lie?"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/05/no-deal-brexit-is-boris-johnsons-central-scenario-eu-told


--

personally i still don't know if this "don't go to talk to the EU and Ireland, wait for them to blink" is a genuine pre-cursor to no deal or a bluff to convince the public, EU and businesses that its happening and to get ready asap

I suppose as time passes the odds in favour of the former shorten, and with no majority and a Parliament that is uncooperative no deal by inaction seems more likely.
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« Reply #19496 on: August 06, 2019, 01:48:32 PM »

so, leaving aside whether Parliament can stop no deal or not

The Guardian asks

"Boris Johnson has no intention of renegotiating Brexit deal, EU told

So why is the Prime Minister’s entire leadership based on a lie?"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/05/no-deal-brexit-is-boris-johnsons-central-scenario-eu-told


--

personally i still don't know if this "don't go to talk to the EU and Ireland, wait for them to blink" is a genuine pre-cursor to no deal or a bluff to convince the public, EU and businesses that its happening and to get ready asap

I suppose as time passes the odds in favour of the former shorten, and with no majority and a Parliament that is uncooperative no deal by inaction seems more likely.

What options do we have. From the EU the message is simple. Accept the current WA or don't. The only party with a majority to accept the deal is the Tories. Ergo.. The no dealers are just about everyone outside the tory party and 30 or so Tories. The people crying about no deal are the people taking us towards it. Boris is doing an incredible job of following through on parliaments wish to not accept the WA
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« Reply #19497 on: August 06, 2019, 01:56:11 PM »

Steady on! Let’s be careful cos if we can’t blame Boris for No Deal and no baby medicine we are in a real blame game quandary. How will Remain cope with this turn of events.
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« Reply #19498 on: August 06, 2019, 01:57:10 PM »

Its not parliament's wish to no deal nor was it stated in our 2016 vote. no deal was barely mentioned until 2017.

If he gets the EU to blink then great but not sure they can without throwing Ireland under the bus

So he is pursuing a policy for hard brexiteers who in many cases won't be affected by no deal.
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« Reply #19499 on: August 06, 2019, 02:02:54 PM »

Steady on! Let’s be careful cos if we can’t blame Boris for No Deal and no baby medicine we are in a real blame game quandary. How will Remain cope with this turn of events.

In what world do we not blame Boris? He is more obviously to blame now than at any stage. Particularly while he has no solution for the border, he can shoulder a very healthy portion of the blame.

I do think there’s some merit in the new PM/newly elected European Parliament line of necessity for new negotiations but the balance of actual power won’t have changed.
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