The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[Doobs]

What seems to be constantly forgotten is that leave voters all knew there would be short term economic consequences of leaving.

That was made clear time and time again by remain. Despite this, like it or not, the public voted to leave.

The short term economic arguments are a complete red herring. It’s about our long term position outside the EU. This seems to be ignored in the current debate. I have a feeling we won’t starve.  

You're right leave voters was warned of of the economic consequences. Hence, why they are labelled as stupid.

As for long term position, it's good to hope isn't it Rich? We can all hope that our economy gets back to flourishing, as it was in the EU, in many years time.

Life will go on. It is possible to prosper as an independent nation.

And yes it’s good to have hope and positivity. Positive people succeed.

Thing is, life might not go on for those that are affected my medication shortages such as insulin and shortage of flu vaccine.

But hey, hope and positivity.

Which other developed country suffers from lack of medication?

They aren't all in the European Union..

It really is funny listening to supposedly intelligent people talking about people dying in their masses because of this.

Isn't that all a bit irrelevant, as the other developed nations havd settled supply chains and customs arrangements, though Trump seems to be having a good go at disrupting theirs?

I wasn't really aware of people talking about people dying in their masses, but any disruption could clearly lead to unnecessary deaths; it will be a bit like austerity; you won't see them lying round the streets in big heaps, surrounded by pools of blood, but it is pretty clear that mortality worsened.

[Doobs]

Oswaldo though.

huh?

Edit.  Caught up now, can enjoy the day.

[MANTIS01]

Any disruption could cause unnecessary deaths. So thank goodness we will be free to and motivated to introduce new arrangements and a range of options that mean any future disruption is less likely to cause unnecessary deaths

[Archer]

Excellent   (and very long) article from Sir Ivan Rogers on the realities of a no-deal Brexit.  An expert in the true sense and probably one of the most knowledgeable and experienced in all matters EU.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/ivan-rogers-the-realities-of-a-no-deal-brexit/

[TightEnd]

There is an emergency cabinet meeting at 4.45pm

Firms speculation that an election will be announced (rationale: parliament won't let us leave by 31st Oct, we must and need a majority to do so, people v politicians type campaign)

I have a lot to post some of which may be about to be out of date, so maybe i will leave it 24 hours and see

[ripple11]

There is an emergency cabinet meeting at 4.45pm

Firms speculation that an election will be announced (rationale: parliament won't let us leave by 31st Oct, we must and need a majority to do so, people v politicians type campaign)

I have a lot to post some of which may be about to be out of date, so maybe i will leave it 24 hours and see

Exactly...lets get on with it.

[RickBFA]

With Corbyn so utterly useless, you can understand the rationale.

Add to that the “people champion” line (doesn’t matter where you believe or or not, it will play well) and he has a big chance to pick up a majority pushing through a Brexit exit in one form or another.

Even though i’m not a Boris fan, he does have charisma. May’s wooden performances at the last election cost her. Boris will play to the crowds and certainly wouldn’t have that problem.

[arbboy]

Labour are 14/1 on bf to get a majority.   It makes total sense for Boris to punt this and try and get a majority and overall control.   The tories are 6/4 to get a majority.  If he loses then he had the numbers massively in his favour. 

[TightEnd]

Cons Europe (Conservative MPs, MEPs, Peers and activists campaigning for a positive relationship with the EU, so you know) have done a 10,000 sample poll of Great Britain today.

It says a snap election would produce...another hung parliament

Con: 311 (-6)
Labour: 242 (-20)
Lib Dems: 21 (+9)
SNP: 52 (+17)
Plaid: 4 (-)
Green: 1 (-)
Others: 1

but i agree, its his best shot to solve a major problem, can't get anything through Parliament

Downsides, Corbyn a good campaigner (policies poll well, he doesn't personally but 2015 was a strong campaign), Con losses to SNP in Scotland can be assumed, Con losses to LD in remain areas likely.

Has to pick up a lot of Brexit party votes from the summer and Labour leaver votes to offset those factors. Could well do.

[arbboy]

Cons Europe (Conservative MPs, MEPs, Peers and activists campaigning for a positive relationship with the EU, so you know) have done a 10,000 sample poll of Great Britain today.

It says a snap election would produce...another hung parliament

Con: 311 (-6)
Labour: 242 (-20)
Lib Dems: 21 (+9)
SNP: 52 (+17)
Plaid: 4 (-)
Green: 1 (-)
Others: 1

but i agree, its his best shot to solve a major problem, can't get anything through Parliament

Downsides, Corbyn a good campaigner (policies poll well, he doesn't personally but 2015 was a strong campaign), Con losses to SNP in Scotland can be assumed, Con losses to LD in remain areas likely.

Has to pick up a lot of Brexit party votes from the summer and Labour leaver votes to offset those factors. Could well do.

So the brexit party are in for 1 seat but are 16/1 on betfair to get the most seats?   Must be the lay of all time right?

[RickBFA]

Labour are 14/1 on bf to get a majority.   It makes total sense for Boris to punt this and try and get a majority and overall control.   The tories are 6/4 to get a majority.  If he loses then he had the numbers massively in his favour. 

Glad to have got the 7/4 on a Tory majority a few days ago.

One thing on the polls. Often people are reluctant to admit they are going to vote Tory when asked.  

[Pokerpops]

Cons Europe (Conservative MPs, MEPs, Peers and activists campaigning for a positive relationship with the EU, so you know) have done a 10,000 sample poll of Great Britain today.

It says a snap election would produce...another hung parliament

Con: 311 (-6)
Labour: 242 (-20)
Lib Dems: 21 (+9)
SNP: 52 (+17)
Plaid: 4 (-)
Green: 1 (-)
Others: 1

but i agree, its his best shot to solve a major problem, can't get anything through Parliament

Downsides, Corbyn a good campaigner (policies poll well, he doesn't personally but 2015 was a strong campaign), Con losses to SNP in Scotland can be assumed, Con losses to LD in remain areas likely.

Has to pick up a lot of Brexit party votes from the summer and Labour leaver votes to offset those factors. Could well do.

So the brexit party are in for 1 seat but are 16/1 on betfair to get the most seats?   Must be the lay of all time right?

F you can find someone who wants to back them. I think you could lay them at 1600/1 and not lose sleep.

[arbboy]

Cons Europe (Conservative MPs, MEPs, Peers and activists campaigning for a positive relationship with the EU, so you know) have done a 10,000 sample poll of Great Britain today.

It says a snap election would produce...another hung parliament

Con: 311 (-6)
Labour: 242 (-20)
Lib Dems: 21 (+9)
SNP: 52 (+17)
Plaid: 4 (-)
Green: 1 (-)
Others: 1

but i agree, its his best shot to solve a major problem, can't get anything through Parliament

Downsides, Corbyn a good campaigner (policies poll well, he doesn't personally but 2015 was a strong campaign), Con losses to SNP in Scotland can be assumed, Con losses to LD in remain areas likely.

Has to pick up a lot of Brexit party votes from the summer and Labour leaver votes to offset those factors. Could well do.

So the brexit party are in for 1 seat but are 16/1 on betfair to get the most seats?   Must be the lay of all time right?

F you can find someone who wants to back them. I think you could lay them at 1600/1 and not lose sleep.

Someone wants £300 on bf now on the most seats market at under 18/1 if you fancy nicking an easy carpet!

[arbboy]

Key swing marginals in this election could be very different tto previous 'mondeo man' marginals.   Hard brexit/hard left seats like Stoke on trent could be the key marginals this time depending on how successful the brexit party are.

[tikay]

Boris Johnson to give a statement from outside No 10 @ 6pm.