COVID19

[Marky147]

Hey Marky, another day, another Cummins takedown.

https://mobile.twitter.com/dr_barrett/status/1360940446650929163

I'd never come across the term Gish Gallop before. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gish_gallop

Spooky, that!

I read that before I went to bed last night

I'm guessing he realises his game is close to up, as he's back to posting health videos.

[Doobs]

Hey Marky, another day, another Cummins takedown.

https://mobile.twitter.com/dr_barrett/status/1360940446650929163

I'd never come across the term Gish Gallop before. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gish_gallop

Spooky, that!

I read that before I went to bed last night

I'm guessing he realises his game is close to up, as he's back to posting health videos.

Ha, he's still at it. 

You wouldn't believe from reading his feed that Florida has a Covid higher mortality rate than Florida; you can guess why he isn't posting cases comparisons anymore.   

It is also a lot warmer (the North of Florida is further South than the South of California), so it is much easier for people in Florida to spend time outside at this time of year than virtually everywhere else in the USA. 

I know Florida has an ageing population, which is a clear counter to the above, but it is absolutely not a success story.

I saw this retweet yesterday

https://twitter.com/FGuy1964/status/1361061543018913792


 My brother died on 12/9/2020. 49 YO, disabled. He had a DNR. No Ivermectin. No HCQ + Zinc. Not even Vitamin C. They gave him antibiotics + Steroids...then the ventilator.

Sounds like he probably got the treatments that have been shown to work? And the treatment happened even though he allegedly had a DNR in place (I really don't think a ventilator is standard if a DNR is in place). 

Clicked on him, how could you not with that name?  Then I saw a week ago he posted this

https://twitter.com/FGuy1964/status/1358548627115884544

Yes it is. #Fascist demand for a seasonal virus with a 99.998% survival rate. We're not all sheep.

His brother died at a young age from Covid, yet he still thinks virtually everyone survives Covid (well only 1 in 50,000 die).  How do you square that circle? 

[StuartHopkin]

Sub 10k infections for the first time since 2nd October

[Marky147]

There are some cards out there, for sure.

Presume you mean Florida higher mortality than Cali?

Think it's got to a point now, where his followers just swallow whatever he's handing out, and he hasn't got to worry about providing any solid evidence.

I read that Gates has just funded a big study on Ivermectin, but presume that's so he can rubbish it, and carry on killing everyone with his vaccines.

[Marky147]

Sub 10k infections for the first time since 2nd October

And we're off

[Doobs]

There are some cards out there, for sure.

Presume you mean Florida higher mortality than Cali?

Think it's got to a point now, where his followers just swallow whatever he's handing out, and he hasn't got to worry about providing any solid evidence.

I read that Gates has just funded a big study on Ivermectin, but presume that's so he can rubbish it, and carry on killing everyone with his vaccines.

Right on Florida having a higher mortality rate than California

I don't think there is much strong evidence either way on Ivermectin yet, whereas there is on vitamin D, steroids and antibiotics.  The Ivermectin study that Cummins kept quoting a couple of months ago literally had a handful of people in it, and the observations seemed to be things that could be a bit subjective.  I will have a nose around, as I hadn't read about the GAtes link, and I assume Gates isn't going to be burning money if there is no potential (potential to kill off every other person obv ).     

Hydroxychloroquine seems to have been failing so far, but people are still doing research in it.  There are plenty of people out there that can fund research and can't be part of some mythical big Pharma cabal.

[Marky147]

There are some cards out there, for sure.

Presume you mean Florida higher mortality than Cali?

Think it's got to a point now, where his followers just swallow whatever he's handing out, and he hasn't got to worry about providing any solid evidence.

I read that Gates has just funded a big study on Ivermectin, but presume that's so he can rubbish it, and carry on killing everyone with his vaccines.

Right on Florida having a higher mortality rate than California

I don't think there is much strong evidence either way on Ivermectin yet, whereas there is on vitamin D, steroids and antibiotics.  The Ivermectin study that Cummins kept quoting a couple of months ago literally had a handful of people in it, and the observations seemed to be things that could be a bit subjective.  I will have a nose around, as I hadn't read about the GAtes link, and I assume Gates isn't going to be burning money if there is no potential (potential to kill off every other person obv ).     

Hydroxychloroquine seems to have been failing so far, but people are still doing research in it.  There are plenty of people out there that can fund research and can't be part of some mythical big Pharma cabal.

Someone pulled that vit-d trial David Davis was talking about to bits https://twitter.com/fperrywilson/status/1360944814271979523

HCQ and Zinc is all you need, obv.

[Doobs]

There are some cards out there, for sure.

Presume you mean Florida higher mortality than Cali?

Think it's got to a point now, where his followers just swallow whatever he's handing out, and he hasn't got to worry about providing any solid evidence.

I read that Gates has just funded a big study on Ivermectin, but presume that's so he can rubbish it, and carry on killing everyone with his vaccines.

Right on Florida having a higher mortality rate than California

I don't think there is much strong evidence either way on Ivermectin yet, whereas there is on vitamin D, steroids and antibiotics.  The Ivermectin study that Cummins kept quoting a couple of months ago literally had a handful of people in it, and the observations seemed to be things that could be a bit subjective.  I will have a nose around, as I hadn't read about the GAtes link, and I assume Gates isn't going to be burning money if there is no potential (potential to kill off every other person obv ).     

Hydroxychloroquine seems to have been failing so far, but people are still doing research in it.  There are plenty of people out there that can fund research and can't be part of some mythical big Pharma cabal.

Someone pulled that vit-d trial David Davis was talking about to bits https://twitter.com/fperrywilson/status/1360944814271979523

HCQ and Zinc is all you need, obv.

I hadn't even read the David Davis tweet, his was one of the few Doctor John videos I switched off on very early.  I wouldn't say other should stop watching him, I just found it hard going, and he does seem to get some stuff right.

I am pretty sure there were some earlier studies that showed a plausible link.  Either way I don't think there is much harm in taking it.  HCQ is different, as the outcomes observed seemed to be a negative if anything and it seems to be more likely to cause harm in the general population too. 

[Marky147]

Definitely no harm, and I've been taking it for years anyway as it's often something we're deficient in.

I'm going to ask them to test my levels on Wednesdsay, while I've got my cannula in.

[Doobs]

Definitely no harm, and I've been taking it for years anyway as it's often something we're deficient in.

I'm going to ask them to test my levels on Wednesdsay, while I've got my cannula in.

Talking of unwatchable videos, Cummins has put out a new video.  "Look me in the eye"

[Marky147]

I'll have to watch it, but thankfully I've just had a case land in my inbox, so I've got to get that squared away now

[Doobs]

Deaths in hospitals are falling in all age groups, but you can now begin to see the vaccine effect in the over 80s. 



https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1361371032465121286

This data has a one week lag, so the effect is likely to be more noticeable when today's figures come out.

[Marky147]

https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1361626537032888320

This is a good thread, too.

I can see why he mostly only engages with people he believes are asking questions in good faith, and not deliberately trying to be antagonistic.

Must get very tiring, especially when he's not getting >£5k p/m from Patreon to do it.

[Doobs]

https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1361626537032888320

This is a good thread, too.

I can see why he mostly only engages with people he believes are asking questions in good faith, and not deliberately trying to be antagonistic.

Must get very tiring, especially when he's not getting >£5k p/m from Patreon to do it.

He seems very patient to me; I'd long since have just typrf "ffs" at some of them.

The state of these charts though.

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1344973418052128768

He has a chart showing Swedish Covid excess deaths of 200/million when they were roughly 700/million last year and at least 100 per million this year even without allowing for the bad lag ypu get on Swedish numbers. 

So we are up to 800+/million.  People can check the numbers here https://www.scb.se/en/finding-statistics/statistics-by-subject-area/population/population-composition/population-statistics/.  {excess deaths can be calculated from the Preliminary statistics on deaths (published 2021-02-15) link}

He then complete f's up the Spanish Flu calc by assuming that people used to live until 70 when the Spanish Flu was around, when the average life expectancy back then was only about 55 if you optimistically ignore the war that was going on.  The mean age of death from Spanish Flu was 27 (see https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2010/03/study-life-years-lost-h1n1-pandemic-had-sizable-impact).  So the lives lost back then were likely around 30 years in 1918 and not the 50 he claims.   

He then makes a bad guess at years of life lost from Covid of half a year, when the real number is nearer 10 (see https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.08.20050559v2 and others). Also people keep making the mistake of assuming life expectancy at birth is the same as life expectamcy when you are already aged 80.  Cummins has been wilfully making this mistake for nearly a year now despite people explaining it to him numerous times.

So yeah, Spanish Flu did result in more year's of life lost, but it is going to be maybe 5 times as much if we stop Covid today and not anywhere close to the 1,000 he claims.  And back in 1918 we didn't take all these mitigations in place and this was before we had all this great medicine we now have that keeps people alive that would have died in 1918.

So, to date, it clearly isn't as bad as Spanish Flu.  But you can also say that without all these interventions, and the advances in medicine, it may well have been.  You can't be absolutely sure, because it is hard to tell what effect lockdowns etc. have really had, and it is guesswork to say how many would have died without modern medicine (but I think it is probably safe to say that at the very least nearly all that needed intensive care would have died with 1918 medicine). 

I think it is pretty clear that the two diseases are at least in the same ballpark for deaths and potential years of life lost.  And even if we do drive the cases down and the vaccinations do prove to be very effective vs the current strain. we still don't really have a clear idea how long Covid will keep killing people for.  We are 1 year in for Covid, we don't really know if it is a 2 year problem, a 10 year one, or a lifetime one. 

And no, I am not lying to you.  He clearly is. 

[Marky147]

Most definitely, they all have the patience of saints. Him, John, Matt, and anyone else in the ARG.

I'd not have been as polite as you, when I responded

I must be masochistic, as I still watch, even though I know he's being deliberately corrupting the information he's passing over.

Must be getting desperate now, as he is even adding in a begging spiel at the end of he videos, too. Wonder if he bought a holiday home with his 150...