COVID19

[DaveShoelace]

Vaccination to include over 65s.

So, do 65yos get it?

My Father in Law is bang on 65 and he just had his

Boom!

Did they call him in and where does he live?

Think he got a letter and Norfolk

[RED-DOG]

Vaccination to include over 65s.

So, do 65yos get it?

My Father in Law is bang on 65 and he just had his

Boom!

Did they call him in and where does he live?

Think he got a letter and Norfolk

Cheers Barry.

[Doobs]

Chris Snowdon is getting stuck into some of the modelling, as they seem to suggest there could be 2,000 deaths a day in August?

https://velvetgloveironfist.blogspot.com/2021/02/the-covid-modellers-have-jumped-shark.html

There are idiots on both sides, and these projections look fairly pessimistic at best. 

It does feel a bit harsh to throw current figures at someone who published their results a month ago.  Why assume such low vaccination take up a month ago when we know there are higher proportions now?  Well, duh!

Snowdon is probably right to have a dig, as it all looks way too pessimistic. but maybe should have done it a month ago before we had all the recent positive news.

They have this disclaimer where the Warwick study was published on the SAGE minutes,

The paper is the assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.

It feels like they need an atuary or two on board to check the reasonableness of their modelling. 
 

[Marky147]

Chris Snowdon is getting stuck into some of the modelling, as they seem to suggest there could be 2,000 deaths a day in August?

https://velvetgloveironfist.blogspot.com/2021/02/the-covid-modellers-have-jumped-shark.html

There are idiots on both sides, and these projections look fairly pessimistic at best. 

It does feel a bit harsh to throw current figures at someone who published their results a month ago.  Why assume such low vaccination take up a month ago when we know there are higher proportions now?  Well, duh!

Snowdon is probably right to have a dig, as it all looks way too pessimistic. but maybe should have done it a month ago before we had all the recent positive news.

They have this disclaimer where the Warwick study was published on the SAGE minutes,

The paper is the assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.

It feels like they need an atuary or two on board to check the reasonableness of their modelling. 
 

Or a printer part designer.

[Doobs]

Chris Snowdon is getting stuck into some of the modelling, as they seem to suggest there could be 2,000 deaths a day in August?

https://velvetgloveironfist.blogspot.com/2021/02/the-covid-modellers-have-jumped-shark.html

There are idiots on both sides, and these projections look fairly pessimistic at best.  

It does feel a bit harsh to throw current figures at someone who published their results a month ago.  Why assume such low vaccination take up a month ago when we know there are higher proportions now?  Well, duh!

Snowdon is probably right to have a dig, as it all looks way too pessimistic. but maybe should have done it a month ago before we had all the recent positive news.

They have this disclaimer where the Warwick study was published on the SAGE minutes,

The paper is the assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.

It feels like they need an atuary or two on board to check the reasonableness of their modelling.  
 

Or a printer part designer.

Oh aye, him and goofy avatar would be the dream modelling team.

Seriously though, the Government modellers need to produce stuff that is credible.  They should have learned from that debacle where they put out the outdated 4k deaths a day model before lockdown 2.  Timescales are obviously challenging for putting stuff out, but you can just look at this and just think it just doesn't seem sensible.  I am conscious I have quite a bit of hindsight here, but I am pretty sure you could have seen the issue a month ago.

edit. I just checked back and I was pretty optimistic a month ago too.  This is the day after Warwick published, and conincidentally I am doubting somebody who was projecting 2,000 deaths a day (albeit I was talking in this wave and not some pessimistic summer resurgence). 

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=68630.3630

I do think something really bad could happen over the next few months, as there is always the chance the virus could mutate and become something worse.  I just don't see how these large number of deaths in the summer, after the vaccination program, could ever have been the central projection.

[Marky147]

Think the worst thing that could happen is via the public, if the government don't try to at least try and work out how to give people some form of normality similar to last summer.

[RickBFA]

I’m 54 with no health issues and got a text from my GP surgery offering me the vaccine today. Booked in next Wednesday.

I was shocked and felt a bit guilty as I got the message after going to a funeral mass for an old family friend who had underlying conditions but died with Covid. Was sat in the Crem car park after driving from the Church when it came through.

Maybe my area in Sheffield is well ahead of schedule as I expected it in April.

Very strange.

[Supernova]

I was shocked to get a text from my Dr on Thursday saying that because I have underlying conditions I should make an appointment to have the jab - I expected at least another two groups and a couple of months before I was contacted so I booked and went and had my first jab at my Dr's yesterday. I've relived and happy. My MIL is still waiting for hers and she is in the 70+ group.

[StuartHopkin]

I was shocked to get a text from my Dr on Thursday saying that because I have underlying conditions I should make an appointment to have the jab - I expected at least another two groups and a couple of months before I was contacted so I booked and went and had my first jab at my Dr's yesterday. I've relived and happy. My MIL is still waiting for hers and she is in the 70+ group.

I dont think 70+ need to wait now, they can just go ahead and book.

[Karabiner]

I was shocked to get a text from my Dr on Thursday saying that because I have underlying conditions I should make an appointment to have the jab - I expected at least another two groups and a couple of months before I was contacted so I booked and went and had my first jab at my Dr's yesterday. I've relived and happy. My MIL is still waiting for hers and she is in the 70+ group.

I dont think 70+ need to wait now, they can just go ahead and book.

I seem to remember Tikay never bothering with the annual flu-jab.

Hopefully he's having a rethink about the covid one.

[tikay]

I was shocked to get a text from my Dr on Thursday saying that because I have underlying conditions I should make an appointment to have the jab - I expected at least another two groups and a couple of months before I was contacted so I booked and went and had my first jab at my Dr's yesterday. I've relived and happy. My MIL is still waiting for hers and she is in the 70+ group.

I dont think 70+ need to wait now, they can just go ahead and book.

I seem to remember Tikay never bothering with the annual flu-jab.

Hopefully he's having a rethink about the covid one.

True. I had never had a flu-jab in my life but after some not-so-gentle nudging from Gill I had my first ever in November.

Then I got a text about a COVID jab & had it on 30th January.

So I'm all jabbed up. I'll be pretty cross if I get knocked over by a bus now.

[Karabiner]

I was shocked to get a text from my Dr on Thursday saying that because I have underlying conditions I should make an appointment to have the jab - I expected at least another two groups and a couple of months before I was contacted so I booked and went and had my first jab at my Dr's yesterday. I've relived and happy. My MIL is still waiting for hers and she is in the 70+ group.

I dont think 70+ need to wait now, they can just go ahead and book.

I seem to remember Tikay never bothering with the annual flu-jab.

Hopefully he's having a rethink about the covid one.

True. I had never had a flu-jab in my life but after some not-so-gentle nudging from Gill I had my first ever in November.

Then I got a text about a COVID jab & had it on 30th January.

So I'm all jabbed up. I'll be pretty cross if I get knocked over by a bus now.

Glad to hear the old adage about old dogs and new tricks rebuffed.

x

[tikay]

I was shocked to get a text from my Dr on Thursday saying that because I have underlying conditions I should make an appointment to have the jab - I expected at least another two groups and a couple of months before I was contacted so I booked and went and had my first jab at my Dr's yesterday. I've relived and happy. My MIL is still waiting for hers and she is in the 70+ group.

I dont think 70+ need to wait now, they can just go ahead and book.

I seem to remember Tikay never bothering with the annual flu-jab.

Hopefully he's having a rethink about the covid one.

True. I had never had a flu-jab in my life but after some not-so-gentle nudging from Gill I had my first ever in November.

Then I got a text about a COVID jab & had it on 30th January.

So I'm all jabbed up. I'll be pretty cross if I get knocked over by a bus now.

Glad to hear the old adage about old dogs and new tricks rebuffed.

x

Thanks Ralph - have you had yours yet?

[RED-DOG]

I was shocked to get a text from my Dr on Thursday saying that because I have underlying conditions I should make an appointment to have the jab - I expected at least another two groups and a couple of months before I was contacted so I booked and went and had my first jab at my Dr's yesterday. I've relived and happy. My MIL is still waiting for hers and she is in the 70+ group.

I dont think 70+ need to wait now, they can just go ahead and book.

I seem to remember Tikay never bothering with the annual flu-jab.

Hopefully he's having a rethink about the covid one.

True. I had never had a flu-jab in my life but after some not-so-gentle nudging from Gill I had my first ever in November.

Then I got a text about a COVID jab & had it on 30th January.

So I'm all jabbed up. I'll be pretty cross if I get knocked over by a bus now.

Glad to hear the old adage about old dogs and new tricks rebuffed.

x

I was once knocked over by a bust. That was pretty special.

[Karabiner]

I was shocked to get a text from my Dr on Thursday saying that because I have underlying conditions I should make an appointment to have the jab - I expected at least another two groups and a couple of months before I was contacted so I booked and went and had my first jab at my Dr's yesterday. I've relived and happy. My MIL is still waiting for hers and she is in the 70+ group.

I dont think 70+ need to wait now, they can just go ahead and book.

I seem to remember Tikay never bothering with the annual flu-jab.

Hopefully he's having a rethink about the covid one.

True. I had never had a flu-jab in my life but after some not-so-gentle nudging from Gill I had my first ever in November.

Then I got a text about a COVID jab & had it on 30th January.

So I'm all jabbed up. I'll be pretty cross if I get knocked over by a bus now.

Glad to hear the old adage about old dogs and new tricks rebuffed.

x

Thanks Ralph - have you had yours yet?

Yes Tony I had mine last week.

They've erected a special covid-jab marquee on The Forest Recreation Ground less than a mile from my abode.