COVID19

[Marky147]

Goes throught the vaccine 'deaths' today.

[Marky147]

This channel is pretty good, and usually nice short videos, too.

[Doobs]

I can't get through his videos.  I could only get through that last one, as it was only 2 minutes.  Even then it took some time to pick them apart, so can't imagine the work that goes into going through a 30 minute one like yesterday's.  

I'd gone at "look in to my eyes", it is just basic confidence trickster spiel, "would I lie to you? I have 5 kids and just care about their future"... and here is my patreon account.  

[Marky147]

I can't get through his videos.  I could only get through that last one, as it was only 2 minutes.  Even then it took some time to pick them apart, so can't imagine the work that goes into going through a 30 minute one like yesterday's.  

I'd gone at "look in to my eyes", it is just basic confidence trickster spiel, "would I lie to you? I have 5 kids and just care about their future"... and here is my patreon account.  

Don't forget paypal for a monthly or one-off donation

[Doobs]

This channel is pretty good, and usually nice short videos, too.

I read quite a few of his tweets; I have never seen any of his videos until this one.  All sounds positive.  His app has produced useful up to date data throughout.    One of the good guys of this pandemic.   

[Doobs]

More good news over the last week.

Cases are now down to about 10k to 15k a day.  There have been a lot of calls to open up now, but this seems premature.  We were at these levels when we ended mini lockdown 2, and that rapidly turned to shit.  This time a lot of the vulnerable are already vaccinated, which is obviously a positive, but hospitalisations are still well above November levels.  It just all seems premature.  Hopsitalisations are currently just below 30k (I can see 26k, but there may be some reporting delays).  By contrast, hospitalisations were nearer 15,000 when we ended mini lockdown 2.  It feels like it may well be OK to lift some restrictions outside, but leave much of the rest for around when schools reopen at the beginning of March.

Deaths in England and Wales are definitely below 1,000 a day now; I said about 700 when I posted last week, but it was a little over that.  Given they are now falling by about 20% a week, I am guessing we are down at about 600 a day now. This is around double the level we were at when the mini lockdown 2 ended, and way above the number when the first lockdown ended.

Having said all this, the weather can't get any colder and vaccination numbers are still flying.  I am pretty optimistic overall, and don't see a wave of future lockdowns, even if the South African variant becomes the dominant one.

 

Mostly good news again.

Firtly some bad news to get past.  The CMI have released their latest report and deaths were still 47% higher than expected a couple of weeks ago(this was age adjusted).  The good news is that was down on the week before, but their age adjusted figures are now showing over 100k exceess deaths in total, so I don't think there is much of an argument that at least 100,000 peole have died of Covid in the UK now).

On to all the good news.

Last week, cases were in the range 10k to 15k for the whole of the UK, right now they are very much about to go through 10k, so I think next week we'll see a string of reported cases in 4 figures.

The trend in deaths has been much more negative, with rates now falling by about 30% a week.  Deaths were probably below 500 a day in England this time last week.  There may still be some lag in that number, but the number today is probably very close to the level where lockdown 2 ended.  Some of this effect is likely due to vaccinations now, as the trend in the reduction is accelerating, and over half the deaths have been in the over 80s.

Hospitalisations are falling too, but slower than deaths.  The hospitalisation rate has fallen from 4k a day to 1.5k a day for the whole UK, but there are still 21k Covid patients in hospital (peak was near 40K).

ICU is where we are seeing the slowest reductions.  There are now 2,800 patients on ventilators, which is down from 4k at peak.

This is all in line with some predictions the actuaries response group made some time ago.  Cases fall most rapidly, followed by deaths, hospitalisations and finally ICU beds.  This may not be obvious, but it is due to middle aged people still having a fairly significant hospitalisation rate even if deaths amongst that group aren't that high.  Models can still be pretty good at this stuff (Hi Ivor).

We are now over 15m vaccinations too, and I still think the numbers are brilliant each week when I see them. 

Away from the UK figures, some of the Scottish figures are realeased quicker than those that are UK wide, in particular the deaths by age group.  There appears to be a noticeable falling off in mortality amongst the over 80s and those in care homes in Scotland.  Deaths in care homes in Scotland are now showing below average for the time of year.  I expect some of that will be data lag, but that is still remarkable.  I think it must be clear by now that this is down to vaccination (rather than HcQ, Zinc and split seasonality curves or whatever it was Ivor was claiming, but maybe there was a heat wave last week?)

https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1362036927294279687       

[StuartHopkin]

Always appreciate your weekly updates Mr Doobs

[RED-DOG]

Always appreciate your weekly updates Mr Doobs

+1

[Marky147]

Great stuff, Doobs!

WSO6-MaxP on the way

[Doobs]

Always appreciate your weekly updates Mr Doobs

+1

Thanks all, I am pleased somebody else thinks it is worthwhile.  

I don't mind doing it now, as it doesn't take too long, and I think weekly is a good gap.  It is much easier to see the trends, and the changes in them.  The daily numbers vary too much, because of weekend differences and you can get mislead by the lags in the data.    

[Marky147]

Always appreciate your weekly updates Mr Doobs

+1

Thanks all, I am pleased somebody else thinks it is worthwhile.  

I don't mind doing it now, as it doesn't take too long, and I think weekly is a good gap.  It is much easier to see the trends, and the changes in them.  The daily numbers vary too much, because of weekend differences and you can get mislead by the lags in the data.    

Just lazy, obv... Unlike Ivor, who is  so busy he can't even read the docs he uses as evidence

[Doobs]

Always appreciate your weekly updates Mr Doobs

+1

Thanks all, I am pleased somebody else thinks it is worthwhile.  

I don't mind doing it now, as it doesn't take too long, and I think weekly is a good gap.  It is much easier to see the trends, and the changes in them.  The daily numbers vary too much, because of weekend differences and you can get mislead by the lags in the data.    

Just lazy, obv... Unlike Ivor, who is  so busy he can't even read the docs he uses as evidence

Ivor was on form last night; I think he showed why posting every 5 minutes has its drawbacks.   Someone took apart his latest 30 minute "gish gallop".  He obviously had read none of the reply as he chose to debunk the reply by posting a link to the very same video that had just been taken apart.

Look into my eyes > peer reviewed evidence obv.

[Marky147]

Always appreciate your weekly updates Mr Doobs

+1

Thanks all, I am pleased somebody else thinks it is worthwhile.  

I don't mind doing it now, as it doesn't take too long, and I think weekly is a good gap.  It is much easier to see the trends, and the changes in them.  The daily numbers vary too much, because of weekend differences and you can get mislead by the lags in the data.    

Just lazy, obv... Unlike Ivor, who is  so busy he can't even read the docs he uses as evidence

Ivor was on form last night; I think he showed why posting every 5 minutes has its drawbacks.   Someone took apart his latest 30 minute "gish gallop".  He obviously had read none of the reply as he chose to debunk the reply by posting a link to the very same video that had just been taken apart.

Look into my eyes > peer reviewed evidence obv.

I saw him reply with the same link a few times in one thread


https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1361744135619809280

Think it might have been that one.

[Doobs]

Always appreciate your weekly updates Mr Doobs

+1

Thanks all, I am pleased somebody else thinks it is worthwhile.  

I don't mind doing it now, as it doesn't take too long, and I think weekly is a good gap.  It is much easier to see the trends, and the changes in them.  The daily numbers vary too much, because of weekend differences and you can get mislead by the lags in the data.    

Just lazy, obv... Unlike Ivor, who is  so busy he can't even read the docs he uses as evidence

Ivor was on form last night; I think he showed why posting every 5 minutes has its drawbacks.   Someone took apart his latest 30 minute "gish gallop".  He obviously had read none of the reply as he chose to debunk the reply by posting a link to the very same video that had just been taken apart.

Look into my eyes > peer reviewed evidence obv.

I saw him reply with the same link a few times in one thread


https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1361744135619809280

Think it might have been that one.

yep

[arbboy]

Always appreciate your weekly updates Mr Doobs

+1

+2 doobs.  Excellent short summary of the whole situation.  Great work thanks.