COVID19

[Marky147]

That Telegraph thing did a job yesterday, ffs 

Everyone crowing about 25% of them didn't actually die... I read a summary of the article, which indicates they're talking about the last week. When deaths are so low surely that's not hard to get to. Heneghan obviously thinking he has found a winning lottery ticket.

[Marky147]

Think Boris should just let Tim Spector speak for him, and get a lot more sense out there.

Ban SAGE from doing interviews.

[Doobs]

That Telegraph thing did a job yesterday, ffs 

Everyone crowing about 25% of them didn't actually die... I read a summary of the article, which indicates they're talking about the last week. When deaths are so low surely that's not hard to get to. Heneghan obviously thinking he has found a winning lottery ticket.

Sad state of affairs when Marky knows more about Covid than a professor of evidence based medicine at Oxford University and the science editor of a national newspaper.  They should be putting you up on Julia HB's show. 

I can't see beyond the payroll, but think you are pretty much correct.  As real Covid gets very low, then total deaths are going to get low, so you are much more likely to see freaky results when looking at percentages.  And there are likely to be a tiny number of false positives, that become much more likely to mess things up if real cases are low. 

Of course the headline is horribly misleading as we have a year's worth of data to go on, so we don't have to rely on a week where data was sparse.  The whole year's data shows that on death certifciates where Covid was mentioned, it was listed as the primary cause in nearly 90% of cases.  Shambles that people in their position should cherry pick data like this, though it is a bit more acceptable when someone's job relies on them finding stories to print.

An hour ago he posted out his Florence Nightingale diagram that showed that registered deaths were down 17% vs the 5 year comparisons, and then failed to include a warning that this was mostly down to the bank holiday...

and his tweet before the Telegraph Story was highlighting only 3 deaths reported... but failed to mention that was because it was a Sunday.

Is there a pattern here?

[Doobs]

Think Boris should just let Tim Spector speak for him, and get a lot more sense out there.

Ban SAGE from doing interviews.

I understood what Boris meant a couple of days ago, but not sure everybody did.  I think a fair few were deliberately choosing to misunderstand it for clicks, but guess the points aren't so obvious to a fair few too.

Chris Snowdon did a good summary here.
 

https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1381990226483089408

I'd happily take all my Covid news from Tim Spector; it just can't be that hard to be an expert and not obviously biased.

[Marky147]

Yeah, I did once I'd listened to it again and had it explained to me. He's just not a good communicator.

Snowdon is pretty good in fairness, and quite handy at winding up crackpots

[Marky147]

If I got put on with her, they'd have to bleep most of it, as I wouldn't have much else to say to her.

There's a non paywalled link to the article http://archive.is/riEyv

[Doobs]

There is a lot pf gibberish written about this, but mass lateral flow testing has seemed a big waste of money since the schools went back.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/15/rapid-covid-testing-in-england-may-be-scaled-back-over-false-positives

In March, around 80% of positives from lateral flow tests were correct.   

As April started with around half the number of cases, then the real positives are going to be around two thirds of total positives from these tests by now.  Going in to May only half the results will be real positives.  When looking at asymptopics then even these numbers will be overestimates.

For kids in schools, if they have symptoms they should stay at home and get tested properly by PCR.  If they are a close contact of someone with a positive PCR test, they should stay home.  If they don't have symptoms they should just go to school and not waste any resources and tim eon testing. 

Not only are these lateral flow tests a colossal waste of money, but then if people saw the real numbers (and many people don't know the difference in tests), confidence in all Covid tests is reduced.  In addition, I have seen multiple people suggest getting some of these lateral flow tests and testing themselves so they can carry on with their normal lives when they have symptoms. 

In other news, Tim Spector has cases down to not much more than 1,000 in the UK. 

[Marky147]

Freeeeeeeedom

[Doobs]

Freeeeeeeedom

Yep, it is pretty much over for now, let's just crack on with our lives.  Of course there is still risk, just much smaller than it was here in the UK.

The state of this conversation.  Smalley misinterprets some data, again;  somebody literally tells him what causes the thing he has seen, he replies with sarcasm and just leaves it there.  Meanwhile WrongAgainClare calls for autopsies and the smileys lap it up. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/RealJoelSmalley/status/1382657453851049984

@RealJoelSmalley

Deaths with Abnormal Clinical and Laboratory Findings in the United States have suddenly exploded since the last weeks of 2020. Up until 11-Dec (50 weeks), there were just under 7k excess deaths of this type. Since then up to 05-Mar (12 weeks), over 18k

@piercedgeek

Replying to

@RealJoelSmalley

This pattern (sharp spike in unknown cause of death close to "now") is perfectly normal. This code basically means "don't know yet" and goes down for a specific week, the older the week is. Here's a comparison of the data, pulled at different times:




@RealJoelSmalley

Oh, that's alright then. We'll just wait a few months and everything will be alright. No need to investigate...

[Marky147]

Couple of massive scumbags, those two

[apezmonkeyz]

There is a lot pf gibberish written about this, but mass lateral flow testing has seemed a big waste of money since the schools went back.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/15/rapid-covid-testing-in-england-may-be-scaled-back-over-false-positives

In March, around 80% of positives from lateral flow tests were correct.   

As April started with around half the number of cases, then the real positives are going to be around two thirds of total positives from these tests by now.  Going in to May only half the results will be real positives.  When looking at asymptopics then even these numbers will be overestimates.

For kids in schools, if they have symptoms they should stay at home and get tested properly by PCR.  If they are a close contact of someone with a positive PCR test, they should stay home.  If they don't have symptoms they should just go to school and not waste any resources and tim eon testing. 

Not only are these lateral flow tests a colossal waste of money, but then if people saw the real numbers (and many people don't know the difference in tests), confidence in all Covid tests is reduced.  In addition, I have seen multiple people suggest getting some of these lateral flow tests and testing themselves so they can carry on with their normal lives when they have symptoms. 

In other news, Tim Spector has cases down to not much more than 1,000 in the UK. 



There are several different  akes of lateral flow tests. The ones used by the government at the moment are chinese, sold to us by the Americans and are approx 80% accurate. There are test made by British and European companies Mologic and Avacta that are approx 95% accurate. However at present the government have decided to use extremely small numbers of these tests for  research purposes. When you have smaller numbers to find the better tests would be of more use but im not sure why they arent used. It may be cost reasons, im not sure.

[Doobs]

There is a lot pf gibberish written about this, but mass lateral flow testing has seemed a big waste of money since the schools went back.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/15/rapid-covid-testing-in-england-may-be-scaled-back-over-false-positives

In March, around 80% of positives from lateral flow tests were correct.   

As April started with around half the number of cases, then the real positives are going to be around two thirds of total positives from these tests by now.  Going in to May only half the results will be real positives.  When looking at asymptopics then even these numbers will be overestimates.

For kids in schools, if they have symptoms they should stay at home and get tested properly by PCR.  If they are a close contact of someone with a positive PCR test, they should stay home.  If they don't have symptoms they should just go to school and not waste any resources and tim eon testing. 

Not only are these lateral flow tests a colossal waste of money, but then if people saw the real numbers (and many people don't know the difference in tests), confidence in all Covid tests is reduced.  In addition, I have seen multiple people suggest getting some of these lateral flow tests and testing themselves so they can carry on with their normal lives when they have symptoms. 

In other news, Tim Spector has cases down to not much more than 1,000 in the UK. 



There are several different  akes of lateral flow tests. The ones used by the government at the moment are chinese, sold to us by the Americans and are approx 80% accurate. There are test made by British and European companies Mologic and Avacta that are approx 95% accurate. However at present the government have decided to use extremely small numbers of these tests for  research purposes. When you have smaller numbers to find the better tests would be of more use but im not sure why they arent used. It may be cost reasons, im not sure.

The tests are way more accurate than that.  The reason for high false positives is because even if the test is only falsely positive 1 time in a thousand  then it becomes an issue if real positives are only 1 in a thousand.   In that case half your positives are going to be wrong.   That is where we are heading and why we now have an issue.

If you test people with symptoms, a far higher proportion of the people who get tested are genuine positive, so most positive results from that test will be real positives.

The testing is not suitable for the purpose it is used for right now.   Back in January when 1 in 60 people were genuinely positive the proportion of real positives from mass testing would have been much higher. 

[StuartHopkin]

There is a lot pf gibberish written about this, but mass lateral flow testing has seemed a big waste of money since the schools went back.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/15/rapid-covid-testing-in-england-may-be-scaled-back-over-false-positives

In March, around 80% of positives from lateral flow tests were correct.   

As April started with around half the number of cases, then the real positives are going to be around two thirds of total positives from these tests by now.  Going in to May only half the results will be real positives.  When looking at asymptopics then even these numbers will be overestimates.

For kids in schools, if they have symptoms they should stay at home and get tested properly by PCR.  If they are a close contact of someone with a positive PCR test, they should stay home.  If they don't have symptoms they should just go to school and not waste any resources and tim eon testing. 

Not only are these lateral flow tests a colossal waste of money, but then if people saw the real numbers (and many people don't know the difference in tests), confidence in all Covid tests is reduced.  In addition, I have seen multiple people suggest getting some of these lateral flow tests and testing themselves so they can carry on with their normal lives when they have symptoms. 

In other news, Tim Spector has cases down to not much more than 1,000 in the UK. 



There are several different  akes of lateral flow tests. The ones used by the government at the moment are chinese, sold to us by the Americans and are approx 80% accurate. There are test made by British and European companies Mologic and Avacta that are approx 95% accurate. However at present the government have decided to use extremely small numbers of these tests for  research purposes. When you have smaller numbers to find the better tests would be of more use but im not sure why they arent used. It may be cost reasons, im not sure.

The tests are way more accurate than that.  The reason for high false positives is because even if the test is only falsely positive 1 time in a thousand  then it becomes an issue if real positives are only 1 in a thousand.   In that case half your positives are going to be wrong.   That is where we are heading and why we now have an issue.

If you test people with symptoms, a far higher proportion of the people who get tested are genuine positive, so most positive results from that test will be real positives.

The testing is not suitable for the purpose it is used for right now.   Back in January when 1 in 60 people were genuinely positive the proportion of real positives from mass testing would have been much higher. 

So at 2k cases reported a day against 1m tests a day, half the cases being reported are possibly false positives?

Just trying to get my head round it.

All set up to roll it out at work as an official test site, but the implication of 1 in 1000 being the false positive rate is really of putting as that would mean one team of people sent away to isolate for 2 weeks every month for no reason.

We're not even meant to act on the info, they just receive a text, how can I not send that person straight home!

Ridiculous. Surely anyone who tests positive with an LF test should just be sent straight for a PCR?

[nirvana]

Don't think there's any kind of coherent argument for testing people who have no symptoms or have had covid or have been vaccinated or are sub 40 years old.

By my reckoning there should be about 17 people a week being tested in the UK. My wife's lost the plot -  after having been vaccinated she is now testing herself twice a week, I let her know she needn't let me know the results.

[Doobs]

There is a lot pf gibberish written about this, but mass lateral flow testing has seemed a big waste of money since the schools went back.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/15/rapid-covid-testing-in-england-may-be-scaled-back-over-false-positives

In March, around 80% of positives from lateral flow tests were correct.   

As April started with around half the number of cases, then the real positives are going to be around two thirds of total positives from these tests by now.  Going in to May only half the results will be real positives.  When looking at asymptopics then even these numbers will be overestimates.

For kids in schools, if they have symptoms they should stay at home and get tested properly by PCR.  If they are a close contact of someone with a positive PCR test, they should stay home.  If they don't have symptoms they should just go to school and not waste any resources and tim eon testing. 

Not only are these lateral flow tests a colossal waste of money, but then if people saw the real numbers (and many people don't know the difference in tests), confidence in all Covid tests is reduced.  In addition, I have seen multiple people suggest getting some of these lateral flow tests and testing themselves so they can carry on with their normal lives when they have symptoms. 

In other news, Tim Spector has cases down to not much more than 1,000 in the UK. 



There are several different  akes of lateral flow tests. The ones used by the government at the moment are chinese, sold to us by the Americans and are approx 80% accurate. There are test made by British and European companies Mologic and Avacta that are approx 95% accurate. However at present the government have decided to use extremely small numbers of these tests for  research purposes. When you have smaller numbers to find the better tests would be of more use but im not sure why they arent used. It may be cost reasons, im not sure.

The tests are way more accurate than that.  The reason for high false positives is because even if the test is only falsely positive 1 time in a thousand  then it becomes an issue if real positives are only 1 in a thousand.   In that case half your positives are going to be wrong.   That is where we are heading and why we now have an issue.

If you test people with symptoms, a far higher proportion of the people who get tested are genuine positive, so most positive results from that test will be real positives.

The testing is not suitable for the purpose it is used for right now.   Back in January when 1 in 60 people were genuinely positive the proportion of real positives from mass testing would have been much higher. 

So at 2k cases reported a day against 1m tests a day, half the cases being reported are possibly false positives?

Just trying to get my head round it.

All set up to roll it out at work as an official test site, but the implication of 1 in 1000 being the false positive rate is really of putting as that would mean one team of people sent away to isolate for 2 weeks every month for no reason.

We're not even meant to act on the info, they just receive a text, how can I not send that person straight home!

Ridiculous. Surely anyone who tests positive with an LF test should just be sent straight for a PCR?

They don't know the exact false positive rate, but it is about that. 

If anyone tests positive I think you are right.  The best thing to do would be to send them for a PCR test as soon as possible.  If that is negative and they have no symptoms, then at least they only miss a day or two.  I don't know the legality of it.

If my daughter.tests positive my plan is for an immediate PCR anyway. I have to get this past my wife and the school though...