COVID19

[nirvana]

Love being in a minority that celebrates seeing young people outdoors enjoying themselves. Cant believe whats happened to people. This doesnt make me a covid denier,  anti vaxxer,  or murderer. Just makes me completely normal and the rest of the country need to be more like me tbf.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SheffCouncil/status/1377247807044784137?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

The council removed 7 tonnes of waste this morning.

Litter covered the whole of the grass which is a very large area.

The war memorial to the American airmen was vandalised.

Arrests made for fights.

Fire brigade called to put fires out.

Call me an old fart but it was bang out of order.

No argument from me on any of that of course but peoples behaviour very much unrelated to ridiculous laws about being outside in groups and barred from any form of entertainment for way longer than is required. One of the issues when driven by politics and dates rather than data which is where we are today in my view.

I wouldnt try and make any case for it being acceptable but neither is it particularly surprising.

[Marky147]

Big JC going through the WHO report, if you wanted to save yourself some time, Doobs.

[RickBFA]

Love being in a minority that celebrates seeing young people outdoors enjoying themselves. Cant believe whats happened to people. This doesnt make me a covid denier,  anti vaxxer,  or murderer. Just makes me completely normal and the rest of the country need to be more like me tbf.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SheffCouncil/status/1377247807044784137?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

The council removed 7 tonnes of waste this morning.

Litter covered the whole of the grass which is a very large area.

The war memorial to the American airmen was vandalised.

Arrests made for fights.

Fire brigade called to put fires out.

Call me an old fart but it was bang out of order.

No argument from me on any of that of course but peoples behaviour very much unrelated to ridiculous laws about being outside in groups and barred from any form of entertainment for way longer than is required. One of the issues when driven by politics and dates rather than data which is where we are today in my view.

I wouldnt try and make any case for it being acceptable but neither is it particularly surprising.

I said to my wife earlier, it’s a tinderbox. Groups of youths segregated on racial groups down there is a dangerous mix when you add alcohol and drugs.

I have heard it is now being reported that an 18 year old girl was raped in a silver Mercedes at 11.30 by a group of Asian guys. I don’t know if that is true but I wouldn’t be surprised.

[RED-DOG]

Love being in a minority that celebrates seeing young people outdoors enjoying themselves. Cant believe whats happened to people. This doesnt make me a covid denier,  anti vaxxer,  or murderer. Just makes me completely normal and the rest of the country need to be more like me tbf.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SheffCouncil/status/1377247807044784137?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

The council removed 7 tonnes of waste this morning.

Litter covered the whole of the grass which is a very large area.

The war memorial to the American airmen was vandalised.

Arrests made for fights.

Fire brigade called to put fires out.

Call me an old fart but it was bang out of order.

No argument from me on any of that of course but peoples behaviour very much unrelated to ridiculous laws about being outside in groups and barred from any form of entertainment for way longer than is required. One of the issues when driven by politics and dates rather than data which is where we are today in my view.

I wouldnt try and make any case for it being acceptable but neither is it particularly surprising.

I said to my wife earlier, it’s a tinderbox. Groups of youths segregated on racial groups down there is a dangerous mix when you add alcohol and drugs.

I have heard it is now being reported that an 18 year old girl was raped in a silver Mercedes at 11.30 by a group of Asian guys. I don’t know if that is true but I wouldn’t be surprised.

That's a lot of specific information. No names and addresses? :-/

[Marky147]

See Simon Dolan is shutting his court case down... Luckily he had his followers fund most of it.

Bleating on about 'no masks', 'no lockdowns'... All the while he's plotted up in Monaco, and his airline is flying masks all over the gaff

https://twitter.com/Lordgreyofponty/status/1377246821823746048

[Doobs]

See Simon Dolan is shutting his court case down... Luckily he had his followers fund most of it.

Bleating on about 'no masks', 'no lockdowns'... All the while he's plotted up in Monaco, and his airline is flying masks all over the gaff

https://twitter.com/Lordgreyofponty/status/1377246821823746048

Another one bites the dust

https://twitter.com/simondolan?lang=en

This account doesn’t exist

[RickBFA]

Love being in a minority that celebrates seeing young people outdoors enjoying themselves. Cant believe whats happened to people. This doesnt make me a covid denier,  anti vaxxer,  or murderer. Just makes me completely normal and the rest of the country need to be more like me tbf.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SheffCouncil/status/1377247807044784137?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

The council removed 7 tonnes of waste this morning.

Litter covered the whole of the grass which is a very large area.

The war memorial to the American airmen was vandalised.

Arrests made for fights.

Fire brigade called to put fires out.

Call me an old fart but it was bang out of order.

No argument from me on any of that of course but peoples behaviour very much unrelated to ridiculous laws about being outside in groups and barred from any form of entertainment for way longer than is required. One of the issues when driven by politics and dates rather than data which is where we are today in my view.

I wouldnt try and make any case for it being acceptable but neither is it particularly surprising.

I said to my wife earlier, it’s a tinderbox. Groups of youths segregated on racial groups down there is a dangerous mix when you add alcohol and drugs.

I have heard it is now being reported that an 18 year old girl was raped in a silver Mercedes at 11.30 by a group of Asian guys. I don’t know if that is true but I wouldn’t be surprised.

That's a lot of specific information. No names and addresses? :-/

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-england-south-yorkshire-56592235

BBC are reporting it. Mercedes at 11.30 with an Asian suspect.

Anyone would think you thought I was making it up :-/

[RED-DOG]

Love being in a minority that celebrates seeing young people outdoors enjoying themselves. Cant believe whats happened to people. This doesnt make me a covid denier,  anti vaxxer,  or murderer. Just makes me completely normal and the rest of the country need to be more like me tbf.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SheffCouncil/status/1377247807044784137?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

The council removed 7 tonnes of waste this morning.

Litter covered the whole of the grass which is a very large area.

The war memorial to the American airmen was vandalised.

Arrests made for fights.

Fire brigade called to put fires out.

Call me an old fart but it was bang out of order.

No argument from me on any of that of course but peoples behaviour very much unrelated to ridiculous laws about being outside in groups and barred from any form of entertainment for way longer than is required. One of the issues when driven by politics and dates rather than data which is where we are today in my view.

I wouldnt try and make any case for it being acceptable but neither is it particularly surprising.

I said to my wife earlier, it’s a tinderbox. Groups of youths segregated on racial groups down there is a dangerous mix when you add alcohol and drugs.

I have heard it is now being reported that an 18 year old girl was raped in a silver Mercedes at 11.30 by a group of Asian guys. I don’t know if that is true but I wouldn’t be surprised.

That's a lot of specific information. No names and addresses? :-/

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-england-south-yorkshire-56592235

BBC are reporting it. Mercedes at 11.30 with an Asian suspect.

Anyone would think you thought I was making it up :-/

Not at all. I knew you were just reporting what had been reported. I was just surprised at how specific the details were

[Doobs]

Love being in a minority that celebrates seeing young people outdoors enjoying themselves. Cant believe whats happened to people. This doesnt make me a covid denier,  anti vaxxer,  or murderer. Just makes me completely normal and the rest of the country need to be more like me tbf.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SheffCouncil/status/1377247807044784137?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

The council removed 7 tonnes of waste this morning.

Litter covered the whole of the grass which is a very large area.

The war memorial to the American airmen was vandalised.

Arrests made for fights.

Fire brigade called to put fires out.

Call me an old fart but it was bang out of order.

No argument from me on any of that of course but peoples behaviour very much unrelated to ridiculous laws about being outside in groups and barred from any form of entertainment for way longer than is required. One of the issues when driven by politics and dates rather than data which is where we are today in my view.

I wouldnt try and make any case for it being acceptable but neither is it particularly surprising.

I said to my wife earlier, it’s a tinderbox. Groups of youths segregated on racial groups down there is a dangerous mix when you add alcohol and drugs.

I have heard it is now being reported that an 18 year old girl was raped in a silver Mercedes at 11.30 by a group of Asian guys. I don’t know if that is true but I wouldn’t be surprised.

That's a lot of specific information. No names and addresses? :-/

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-england-south-yorkshire-56592235

BBC are reporting it. Mercedes at 11.30 with an Asian suspect.

Anyone would think you thought I was making it up :-/

I had read the report and a group of Asian guys felt a stretch.

I am not sure this is the thread for discussion of tinderboxes and gangs of racial groups.  Just start a new thread, maybe we can get some of the old Blondes back. 

[StuartHopkin]

Love being in a minority that celebrates seeing young people outdoors enjoying themselves. Cant believe whats happened to people. This doesnt make me a covid denier,  anti vaxxer,  or murderer. Just makes me completely normal and the rest of the country need to be more like me tbf.

Anyone who thinks they are completely normal is a weirdo.

True dat.

1. Govt and PHE dont pursue or believe a zero covid strategy can work. FACT
2. 99% of deaths are old and vulnerable FACT
3. Old and vulnerable have been vaccinated with 1st dose to a very large extent FACT
4. No one catches COVID in a park. FACT
5. There may be a slight increase in cases in under 50s and hospitalisations may increase, see 1.

Time to crack on in terms of an outdoor life at a minimum and totally support people breaking silly laws. Its pretty noble in fact.

Ha, was pretty much in agreement with you earlier.  I don't really worry about people meeting outside and think the Government are  likely to be too cautious now.

But the above is just wrong.  FACT.

2. is incorrect, 10% are under 65 in this country, and the proportions will change going forward if half of us have the vaccination and half don't.

4.  Not many catch Covid outside, but a small proportion will.

5.  The cases are increasingly slightly already, so it is optimistic to think they will only increase slightly as we fully reopen.  There are thin margins between staying the same and exponential growth, so will wait and see.  The cases in Israel are falling which gives ground for optimism, but they are closer to full vaccination, and who knows what happens if a nasty variant arrives?

I don't think it is easy as carrying on with the plan will certainly reduce risks further, and we can do most of the normal things soon enough.  If things start going wrong in future, better to do it from a low base; and if cases get really low, they can do away with the testing in schools, which is already of dubious use.

Anyway, I am not going to get grumpy at the ground level shots that make parks look fuller than they are.  Would far rather people met there, and they shouldn't be moved on.  Just wish the groups of 26 would get off the f'in path and stand on the grass for their chat.

FWIW.  Just took my eldest to meet her friends in a park.  And the youngest is going skateboarding in the park in a couple of days. 

I also think we'd have been fine going to see my mum over Easter, but will see her soon enough.

Hi Doobs

Where do you get the cases rising info from?

As far as I can see 7 day average for cases dropped under 5k yesterday for the first time since September?

Average tests end of September was 250k and now it's 1.1m so against the increase in tests the cases must actually still be dropping considerably?

Thanks

[Doobs]

Love being in a minority that celebrates seeing young people outdoors enjoying themselves. Cant believe whats happened to people. This doesnt make me a covid denier,  anti vaxxer,  or murderer. Just makes me completely normal and the rest of the country need to be more like me tbf.

Anyone who thinks they are completely normal is a weirdo.

True dat.

1. Govt and PHE dont pursue or believe a zero covid strategy can work. FACT
2. 99% of deaths are old and vulnerable FACT
3. Old and vulnerable have been vaccinated with 1st dose to a very large extent FACT
4. No one catches COVID in a park. FACT
5. There may be a slight increase in cases in under 50s and hospitalisations may increase, see 1.

Time to crack on in terms of an outdoor life at a minimum and totally support people breaking silly laws. Its pretty noble in fact.

Ha, was pretty much in agreement with you earlier.  I don't really worry about people meeting outside and think the Government are  likely to be too cautious now.

But the above is just wrong.  FACT.

2. is incorrect, 10% are under 65 in this country, and the proportions will change going forward if half of us have the vaccination and half don't.

4.  Not many catch Covid outside, but a small proportion will.

5.  The cases are increasingly slightly already, so it is optimistic to think they will only increase slightly as we fully reopen.  There are thin margins between staying the same and exponential growth, so will wait and see.  The cases in Israel are falling which gives ground for optimism, but they are closer to full vaccination, and who knows what happens if a nasty variant arrives?

I don't think it is easy as carrying on with the plan will certainly reduce risks further, and we can do most of the normal things soon enough.  If things start going wrong in future, better to do it from a low base; and if cases get really low, they can do away with the testing in schools, which is already of dubious use.

Anyway, I am not going to get grumpy at the ground level shots that make parks look fuller than they are.  Would far rather people met there, and they shouldn't be moved on.  Just wish the groups of 26 would get off the f'in path and stand on the grass for their chat.

FWIW.  Just took my eldest to meet her friends in a park.  And the youngest is going skateboarding in the park in a couple of days. 

I also think we'd have been fine going to see my mum over Easter, but will see her soon enough.

Hi Doobs

Where do you get the cases rising info from?

As far as I can see 7 day average for cases dropped under 5k yesterday for the first time since September?

Average tests end of September was 250k and now it's 1.1m so against the increase in tests the cases must actually still be dropping considerably?

Thanks

Hi Stuart.  Sorry, I was a bit out of date, and I think you are correct.  Last week cases were flat and Tim Spector of the Zoe app had cases slightly increasing.  I assumed that had continued, but I just checked and both are now showing cases falling again.   The increase was likely caused by school age children, so maybe it is just a reflection of lower testing and kids not mixing so much, who knows?   

I had my jab on Monday and it seemed to screw me up on Tuesday night, so I didn't sleep much, and was struggling a bit yesterday (hence no update).  I get sleep apnoea, so any lack of sleep effects seem to have compounded.  I wouldn't like to break down how much is vaccination after effects and how much is sleep apnoea, but I have nights where I sleep badly without the vaccination.

Anyway, I am feeling a bit better today, so will do an update.     

[Doobs]

Just a quick update which isn't all good news.

Deaths: A week ago we went down to 58 deaths a day in England.  So deaths have been falling by 30%/40% a week for a month or so now.  I mentioned yesterday that "excess" deaths were now below zero vs the previous five years.   Given Covid deaths are only about 3%/4% of all deaths now, this can be explained by random fluctuations, but is more likely to be due to a combination of deaths from other diseases falling and Covid bringing some deaths forward.  Either way, it is obvious good news.

Hospitalisations.  They are now down to about 400 a day, which is 10% of the level at the recent peak.  We are down to around 5,000 Covid patients in hospital from the 40k peak.  That is only about 4 per hospital in the UK.  There are obviously going to be some very big hosptals with far more than that, but it no longer feels like an unmanageable problem, so hopefully waiting lists will turn around.      

Cases.  Cases haven't really moved at all from last week and are still at 5,000 cases a day.  I saw Tim Spector, of the Zoe App, suggesting cases were creeping up.  This means that cases seem bound to rise if we go beyond opening up schools.      

Presumably the rising in the cases number is down to the new variant, so last year's summer experience might not be too helpful.   I think that means that the much malligned modelling has to be really good.  Given the vaccination success in most of the over 50s (bar me it seems!), I think it is safe to say that we are really unlikely to get an explosion in deaths going forward if we fully open up.  But what happens if cases rise exponentially again and we start getting a large number of people in their 40s in hospital?  I just don't think it is as clear as I thought it was.

I think we'll be fine, and they should carry on opening up, as the issue looks manageable and despite the supply controversy, some people in their 40s are already getting vaccinated.  I think it probably explains the caution over foreign holidays and the fact we haven't brought the dates forward on some things.  People should probably be able to play golf, block the paths in the park with their pram convoys and hold freedom marches.  They could probably do most of the less annoying things outside too.  

Anyway, got to go.
 .      

A quick "Wednesday" update.

Deaths have been falling by 40% a week for some time now, and last week was no different.  A week ago there were only 32 deaths registered in England, which is a long way down from the peak.  This is the most compelling reason that we could ease restrictions sooner.  Deaths are also running below 5 year averages, which is more good news.  There was a lot of talk that other deaths would increase because people had been reluctant to go to the hospital; that hasn't happened yet.  I think it is inevitable that we get more cancer deaths going forward, but it is clear the people who talked about tens of thousands of deaths "caused by lockdown" were pretty wrong.  

Hospitalisations.  There has been steady progress here too, just not as dramatically as with deaths.  Hospitalisations have fallen to below 300 a day, so they are still falling significantly.  

Cases.  As mentioned above, there has been a fall in the numbers this week.  Tim Spector is now reporting 4,500 cases a day, and the Government figures look like about 4,000 a day on average.  This is down from 5,000 a day last week.  I just checked the testing numbers, and they are down noticeably on the week, so at least some of that is down to lower testing.

Talking of testing, I saw this earlier.  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/31/fewer-quarter-covid-symptoms-request-test-uk-study.  Fewer than a quarter with Covid symptoms request test... and only half of people knew the main symptoms... and self isolation still seems hit and miss unless somebody actually tells them to.  Seems not trusting people to do the right thing has some basis in fact.

All in all good news for us in the UK, hopefuly we can all go out for a beer soon, albeit at a social distance (or anti-social distance?).
 

[Marky147]

Hopefully the Covid 19 assembly isn't going to be long of this world

https://bylinetimes.com/2021/04/01/beware-scientifically-suspect-grief-grifting/

[Doobs]

Hopefully the Covid 19 assembly isn't going to be long of this world

https://bylinetimes.com/2021/04/01/beware-scientifically-suspect-grief-grifting/

She doesn't seem to be taking much criticism on board, so I think that is a no.  Presumably when she has done collecting, she'll announce that the impossible task was impossible, and they'll all thank her for her hard work. 

She has been claiming that all postive tests in schools are false positives for the last couple of weeks now.  Sure, some are likely to be, but if your assumed false positive rate is higher than the rate you see in reality the conclusion is that you have estimated too high and not that they are all false positive?  For instance the fact we still have a couple of thousand people rocking up in hospital each week shows not all can be negative. 

School testing with lateral flow tests is likely a horrendous waste of money, but at least get your reasoning correct.

[Doobs]

https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/commentisfree/2021/apr/04/how-is-it-possible-that-the-number-of-deaths-is-now-so-low

David Spiegelhalter covers why overall deaths are now lower than any year since 2014.

Mild winter weather correlates well with winter deaths over time.

Flu has genuinely been very low across the World in the last year or so, with pretty much all countries with good statistics reporting low levels.

Interestingly he revisits the number of deaths that were brought forward by the original wave of coronavirus and states it was only 5% to 15% would have died within a year anyway.  This backs up some of the estimates where the average death from Covid has been losing around 10 years of life (and not the few months some less reputable sources frequently claim).

As shown before here, there haven't been large increases in deaths in many causes over the last year or so.

FWIW I think the road deaths comment he makes is wrong, that looks like a monthly figure.