COVID19

[the sicilian]

So hardly any UK schools have closed from day 1 that's over 8 million sticky kids, younger ones know for spreading bugs like wild fire.. add associated parents..add people who are going about their business as normal.. lets say 20 million people arguments sake..

Question : with an incubation period of 4 days and 20 million people wandering around, why has there not been a huge explosion of cases ? tens of thousands should be affected by now..dropping like flies.. yet 0.003% of the population have been diagnosed for a virus with a 98% recovery rate

Either its not easily as communicable as they say or the media have panicked us into its like the end of the world

How about we take a moment look at the actual facts and not the scaremongering reports.. take sensible precautions and resume normal life

As who say?

The transmission rate is the r naught value if you want to look up what 'they' say

'they' are the establishment and the doctors.. with a r naught value of 2 the question remains.. why are not more of us sick then ?

[kukushkin88]

So hardly any UK schools have closed from day 1 that's over 8 million sticky kids, younger ones know for spreading bugs like wild fire.. add associated parents..add people who are going about their business as normal.. lets say 20 million people arguments sake..

Question : with an incubation period of 4 days and 20 million people wandering around, why has there not been a huge explosion of cases ? tens of thousands should be affected by now..dropping like flies.. yet 0.003% of the population have been diagnosed for a virus with a 98% recovery rate

Either its not easily as communicable as they say or the media have panicked us into its like the end of the world

How about we take a moment look at the actual facts and not the scaremongering reports.. take sensible precautions and resume normal life

As who say?

The transmission rate is the r naught value if you want to look up what 'they' say

'they' are the establishment and the doctors.. with a r naught value of 2 the question remains.. why are not more of us sick then ?

I would advise rereading the Tomas Pueyo article. In terms of the recovery rate, it’s not necessarily of value because of all the unknowns that we have atm but the known recovery rate in the U.K. so far is 3.33%.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

[Doobs]

So hardly any UK schools have closed from day 1 that's over 8 million sticky kids, younger ones know for spreading bugs like wild fire.. add associated parents..add people who are going about their business as normal.. lets say 20 million people arguments sake..

Question : with an incubation period of 4 days and 20 million people wandering around, why has there not been a huge explosion of cases ? tens of thousands should be affected by now..dropping like flies.. yet 0.003% of the population have been diagnosed for a virus with a 98% recovery rate

Either its not easily as communicable as they say or the media have panicked us into its like the end of the world

How about we take a moment look at the actual facts and not the scaremongering reports.. take sensible precautions and resume normal life

deaths are doubling every 2-3 days the spread is real
the number of people with this virus is way over the number of confirmed cases because people are not getting tested unless they are patient in hospital

So we are guessing at numbers ? if you say is true and say 100,000 people have it with a 2% mortality rate that should be 2000 dead.. we have 70 odd.. need to get some context..

They haven't died yet.

The cases have been doubling every 2 or 3 days.  I think the average time to death is about 17 days amongst the deaths (I am not checking this, but its is in that order).  Most of these deaths you are seeing now will be people who caught it at least a week ago.

A week ago there were 373 confirmed cases, a week earlier just 51.  

Also the mortality rate is only going to be under 2% if the NHS isn't overwhlemed.  People who need intensive care and a respirator are not going to be as likely to live when those things are no longer available.  

This is not scaremongering, these are facts. 

And it isn't just the huge numbers of potential deaths that matter, we do not know the long term prognosis of the survivors.  Given the virus damages the lungs and organs, many people who survive are likely to develop conditions that need long term support of some kind.

[StuartHopkin]

So hardly any UK schools have closed from day 1 that's over 8 million sticky kids, younger ones know for spreading bugs like wild fire.. add associated parents..add people who are going about their business as normal.. lets say 20 million people arguments sake..

Question : with an incubation period of 4 days and 20 million people wandering around, why has there not been a huge explosion of cases ? tens of thousands should be affected by now..dropping like flies.. yet 0.003% of the population have been diagnosed for a virus with a 98% recovery rate

Either its not easily as communicable as they say or the media have panicked us into its like the end of the world

How about we take a moment look at the actual facts and not the scaremongering reports.. take sensible precautions and resume normal life

I think part of the problem is they don't know how many people have it as they effect it has on people varies massively.

varies massively ?? the majority have flu like symptoms for a few days and are fine.. we know exactly how it affects people

Well yes then, i would say that is a massive variance no?
Between flu like symptoms for a couple of days and in a box.

[kukushkin88]

So hardly any UK schools have closed from day 1 that's over 8 million sticky kids, younger ones know for spreading bugs like wild fire.. add associated parents..add people who are going about their business as normal.. lets say 20 million people arguments sake..

Question : with an incubation period of 4 days and 20 million people wandering around, why has there not been a huge explosion of cases ? tens of thousands should be affected by now..dropping like flies.. yet 0.003% of the population have been diagnosed for a virus with a 98% recovery rate

Either its not easily as communicable as they say or the media have panicked us into its like the end of the world

How about we take a moment look at the actual facts and not the scaremongering reports.. take sensible precautions and resume normal life

deaths are doubling every 2-3 days the spread is real
the number of people with this virus is way over the number of confirmed cases because people are not getting tested unless they are patient in hospital

So we are guessing at numbers ? if you say is true and say 100,000 people have it with a 2% mortality rate that should be 2000 dead.. we have 70 odd.. need to get some context..

They haven't died yet.

The cases have been doubling every 2 or 3 days.  I think the average time to death is about 17 days amongst the deaths (I am not checking this, but its is in that order).  Most of these deaths you are seeing now will be people who caught it at least a week ago.

A week ago there were 373 confirmed cases, a week earlier just 51.  

Also the mortality rate is only going to be under 2% if the NHS isn't overwhlemed.  People who need intensive care and a respirator are not going to be as likely to live when those things are no longer available.  

This is not scaremongering, these are facts. 

And it isn't just the huge numbers of potential deaths that matter, we do not know the long term prognosis of the survivors.  Given the virus damages the lungs and organs, many people who survive are likely to develop conditions that need long term support of some kind.

The first sentence is key. The only explanation for the current situation is that there people who all are intubated and are only being kept alive by respirators, once this capacity is overwhelmed then the increase will be dramatic. We have less respirators per person than all comparable nations and that is why there is a feeling that we should be acting sooner not ‘at the same time on the curve’ or later than a country like Italy.

[kukushkin88]

.

This is a good explanation of how I understand it, seems like the Aussies are in a relatively good spot, the densely populated parts of the U.K. and US are going to have it worse than most in the short to medium term.

[the sicilian]

So hardly any UK schools have closed from day 1 that's over 8 million sticky kids, younger ones know for spreading bugs like wild fire.. add associated parents..add people who are going about their business as normal.. lets say 20 million people arguments sake..

Question : with an incubation period of 4 days and 20 million people wandering around, why has there not been a huge explosion of cases ? tens of thousands should be affected by now..dropping like flies.. yet 0.003% of the population have been diagnosed for a virus with a 98% recovery rate

Either its not easily as communicable as they say or the media have panicked us into its like the end of the world

How about we take a moment look at the actual facts and not the scaremongering reports.. take sensible precautions and resume normal life

deaths are doubling every 2-3 days the spread is real
the number of people with this virus is way over the number of confirmed cases because people are not getting tested unless they are patient in hospital

So we are guessing at numbers ? if you say is true and say 100,000 people have it with a 2% mortality rate that should be 2000 dead.. we have 70 odd.. need to get some context..

They haven't died yet.

The cases have been doubling every 2 or 3 days.  I think the average time to death is about 17 days amongst the deaths (I am not checking this, but its is in that order).  Most of these deaths you are seeing now will be people who caught it at least a week ago.

A week ago there were 373 confirmed cases, a week earlier just 51.  

Also the mortality rate is only going to be under 2% if the NHS isn't overwhlemed.  People who need intensive care and a respirator are not going to be as likely to live when those things are no longer available.  

This is not scaremongering, these are facts. 

And it isn't just the huge numbers of potential deaths that matter, we do not know the long term prognosis of the survivors.  Given the virus damages the lungs and organs, many people who survive are likely to develop conditions that need long term support of some kind.

large scale quarentine and then all emerging two weeks later to catch it anyway will overun the nhs..and that will cause deaths not the actual disease.. you cant just hide from this

[arbboy]

So hardly any UK schools have closed from day 1 that's over 8 million sticky kids, younger ones know for spreading bugs like wild fire.. add associated parents..add people who are going about their business as normal.. lets say 20 million people arguments sake..

Question : with an incubation period of 4 days and 20 million people wandering around, why has there not been a huge explosion of cases ? tens of thousands should be affected by now..dropping like flies.. yet 0.003% of the population have been diagnosed for a virus with a 98% recovery rate

Either its not easily as communicable as they say or the media have panicked us into its like the end of the world

How about we take a moment look at the actual facts and not the scaremongering reports.. take sensible precautions and resume normal life

I think part of the problem is they don't know how many people have it as they effect it has on people varies massively.

varies massively ?? the majority have flu like symptoms for a few days and are fine.. we know exactly how it affects people

You still training?  how busy has your david lloyd been this week?   Numbers at my place were pretty solid compared to usual last two days although the manager said numbers had fallen it didn't seem like that on my two visits.

[the sicilian]

So hardly any UK schools have closed from day 1 that's over 8 million sticky kids, younger ones know for spreading bugs like wild fire.. add associated parents..add people who are going about their business as normal.. lets say 20 million people arguments sake..

Question : with an incubation period of 4 days and 20 million people wandering around, why has there not been a huge explosion of cases ? tens of thousands should be affected by now..dropping like flies.. yet 0.003% of the population have been diagnosed for a virus with a 98% recovery rate

Either its not easily as communicable as they say or the media have panicked us into its like the end of the world

How about we take a moment look at the actual facts and not the scaremongering reports.. take sensible precautions and resume normal life

I think part of the problem is they don't know how many people have it as they effect it has on people varies massively.

varies massively ?? the majority have flu like symptoms for a few days and are fine.. we know exactly how it affects people

You still training?  how busy has your david lloyd been this week?   Numbers at my place were pretty solid compared to usual last two days although the manager said numbers had fallen it didn't seem like that on my two visits.

yeah still training..is a drop off but still quite a few there..they have cut the classes in half for more spacing.. but business as usual ..although there were murmours of shutdown

[RED-DOG]

Shit just got real.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-51943592

[kukushkin88]

It’s Friday for the school closures, Wales confirmed and Scotland about to do the same.

[Ironside]

schools closed in wales and scotland as of friday

[Doobs]

So hardly any UK schools have closed from day 1 that's over 8 million sticky kids, younger ones know for spreading bugs like wild fire.. add associated parents..add people who are going about their business as normal.. lets say 20 million people arguments sake..

Question : with an incubation period of 4 days and 20 million people wandering around, why has there not been a huge explosion of cases ? tens of thousands should be affected by now..dropping like flies.. yet 0.003% of the population have been diagnosed for a virus with a 98% recovery rate

Either its not easily as communicable as they say or the media have panicked us into its like the end of the world

How about we take a moment look at the actual facts and not the scaremongering reports.. take sensible precautions and resume normal life

deaths are doubling every 2-3 days the spread is real
the number of people with this virus is way over the number of confirmed cases because people are not getting tested unless they are patient in hospital

So we are guessing at numbers ? if you say is true and say 100,000 people have it with a 2% mortality rate that should be 2000 dead.. we have 70 odd.. need to get some context..

They haven't died yet.

The cases have been doubling every 2 or 3 days.  I think the average time to death is about 17 days amongst the deaths (I am not checking this, but its is in that order).  Most of these deaths you are seeing now will be people who caught it at least a week ago.

A week ago there were 373 confirmed cases, a week earlier just 51.  

Also the mortality rate is only going to be under 2% if the NHS isn't overwhlemed.  People who need intensive care and a respirator are not going to be as likely to live when those things are no longer available.  

This is not scaremongering, these are facts. 

And it isn't just the huge numbers of potential deaths that matter, we do not know the long term prognosis of the survivors.  Given the virus damages the lungs and organs, many people who survive are likely to develop conditions that need long term support of some kind.

large scale quarentine and then all emerging two weeks later to catch it anyway will overun the nhs..and that will cause deaths not the actual disease.. you cant just hide from this

You are wrong.  Social distances will reduce the rate of transmission.   I might get it from my kids but I won't spread it to the gym or my mum.

How can everybody going about normal business in 2 weeks have a worse effect than everybody going about normal business today?  And there is f all chance it will be normal business in 2 weeks anyway.

My kids are going to be missing a significant chunk of their education so old people don't die.  Old people need to do their bit too.

[Jon MW]

Science Wife had to cover a geography lesson!

Doesn't get more serious than that  


She also predicted (pretty much) all along that they would close the schools about a fortnight before Easter to minimise the disruption.

Bit of a question as to whether they re-open after Easter; my hunch would be an extra week after Easter then re-opening (unless the figures get horrific).


EDIT: it will be very surprising if the rest of the UK doesn't officially close the schools like Wales and Scotland have done - but her school will be closed anyway; they reached the capacity they could cover for yesterday so they've got very little chance of staying open next week either way.

[kukushkin88]

The wording of the announcements looks like they are saying all schools can close at their discretion now but all must be closed by Friday. It would be a big surprise if England and NI don’t confirm the same after COBRA.