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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 354192 times)
kukushkin88
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« Reply #1110 on: April 03, 2020, 07:17:19 PM »

...
On the end part, it very much started as a case of ‘should be doing it now’ (for a quite a long time and still to some extent now), rather than ‘should have done it sooner‘.

...


Like what?

I remember arguments about whether we should be in full lockdown - but that was on the way (it may have arrived sooner than the government anticipated in fact because less people than expected were voluntarily abiding by social distancing rules).
Also arguments about whether schools should be closed - but that was clearly and obviously on the way (I don't think anybody, at least in education were surprised at the timing of that announcement)
They kind of bypassed the idea of banning large assemblies as we went to full lockdown - but that was in line with the Imperial research which suggested that it was so insignificant without the other measures that it wasn't even worth graphing.
There's an ongoing disagreement about masks - and, even more than large assemblies, you might get opposing experts who don't agree with the governments advice, but you can see where the governement expert advice is.

There are some other measures that other countries have done, but they're primarily about enforcement rather than actual containment measures.


What do you think the measures they should be doing now are?

There is scope for a much more comprehensive lockdown, our lockdown is still significantly less than the countries that we accelerating past on the fatality growth rate charts. I accept this is really tough though, the problem we saw in Italy/France/Spain with a partial lockdown is holding your nerve when the fatality numbers get huge but you still don’t know how effective your existing lockdown has been. In the U.K. things like Football Associations/rugby authorities cancelling all fixtures was against the government advice. There was a wide consensus that Cheltenham would and should be cancelled. They talked about evidence based decisions for leaving schools open, what evidence did they have? Like many times when they’ve said evidence, what they actually mean is the projection of their model, in the absence of any actual evidence an earlier closure of the schools seemed prudent. They literally couldn’t have had meaningful data about the role of children in spreading it, so it’s strange to take the highest risk option.

At some stage it might be interesting to re-read this thread, which started on February 22nd to see the range of views. There was definitely a time where the discussion was about why we were waiting until a later point in the curve, as though we were trying to emulate Italy, when it seemed clear that what we had was an opportunity to act sooner, relatively speaking.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2020, 07:21:39 PM by kukushkin88 » Logged
DropTheHammer
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« Reply #1111 on: April 03, 2020, 07:28:43 PM »

Did anyone else notice the dodgy Y axis on their ‘Global Death Comparison’ graph? The distance between 50-100 deaths was the same as the last 5,000-10,000 deaths, which is masking the exponential nature of how quickly the deaths are racking up. Guess they’re trying not to panic people but  it makes it harder to make out each country’s line. 
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #1112 on: April 03, 2020, 07:30:40 PM »

Did anyone else notice the dodgy Y axis on their ‘Global Death Comparison’ graph? The distance between 50-100 deaths was the same as the last 5,000-10,000 deaths, which is masking the exponential nature of how quickly the deaths are racking up. Guess they’re trying not to panic people but  it makes it harder to make out each country’s line. 

If you read the John Burn-Murdoch thread that I keep linking he gives a good explanation for why that’s probably the best way to display the data.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #1113 on: April 03, 2020, 07:31:46 PM »


This is highly concerning, looking forwards:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1246135176461254657?s=21
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Karabiner
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« Reply #1114 on: April 03, 2020, 07:36:53 PM »

Is clapping the NHS every evening now - or just on certain days?

In my small block of 40 flats in Nottingham there must have been a 60/70% turnout last evening - quite emotional it was too. Cry

just Thursdays


Thank you Al
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StuartHopkin
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« Reply #1115 on: April 03, 2020, 07:37:36 PM »

Did anyone else notice the dodgy Y axis on their ‘Global Death Comparison’ graph? The distance between 50-100 deaths was the same as the last 5,000-10,000 deaths, which is masking the exponential nature of how quickly the deaths are racking up. Guess they’re trying not to panic people but  it makes it harder to make out each country’s line. 

If you read the John Burn-Murdoch thread that I keep linking he gives a good explanation for why that’s probably the best way to display the data.

Agreed, I thought it was just misleading at first but when you look into it does make sense especially with the doubling days lines added for perspective.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #1116 on: April 03, 2020, 07:50:12 PM »

...
On the end part, it very much started as a case of ‘should be doing it now’ (for a quite a long time and still to some extent now), rather than ‘should have done it sooner‘.

...


Like what?

I remember arguments about whether we should be in full lockdown - but that was on the way (it may have arrived sooner than the government anticipated in fact because less people than expected were voluntarily abiding by social distancing rules).
Also arguments about whether schools should be closed - but that was clearly and obviously on the way (I don't think anybody, at least in education were surprised at the timing of that announcement)
They kind of bypassed the idea of banning large assemblies as we went to full lockdown - but that was in line with the Imperial research which suggested that it was so insignificant without the other measures that it wasn't even worth graphing.
There's an ongoing disagreement about masks - and, even more than large assemblies, you might get opposing experts who don't agree with the governments advice, but you can see where the governement expert advice is.

There are some other measures that other countries have done, but they're primarily about enforcement rather than actual containment measures.


What do you think the measures they should be doing now are?

There is scope for a much more comprehensive lockdown, our lockdown is still significantly less than the countries that we accelerating past on the fatality growth rate charts. I accept this is really tough though, the problem we saw in Italy/France/Spain with a partial lockdown is holding your nerve when the fatality numbers get huge but you still don’t know how effective your existing lockdown has been. In the U.K. things like Football Associations/rugby authorities cancelling all fixtures was against the government advice. There was a wide consensus that Cheltenham would and should be cancelled. They talked about evidence based decisions for leaving schools open, what evidence did they have? Like many times when they’ve said evidence, what they actually mean is the projection of their model, in the absence of any actual evidence an earlier closure of the schools seemed prudent. They literally couldn’t have had meaningful data about the role of children in spreading it, so it’s strange to take the highest risk option.

At some stage it might be interesting to re-read this thread, which started on February 22nd to see the range of views. There was definitely a time where the discussion was about why we were waiting until a later point in the curve, as though we were trying to emulate Italy, when it seemed clear that what we had was an opportunity to act sooner, relatively speaking.

We’ve also allowed basically all non-essential work to continue, both situations where employees are apparently being forced to and situations where employers/employees have just carried on, notably in construction. We’ve no meaningful control over incoming international flights, including those from the worst afflicted places in the world. You’ll have some insight on the school closures, most teachers I know say 25/30% of kids are still coming in and basically all teachers who aren’t subject to quarantining guidelines are in as well.
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Marky147
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« Reply #1117 on: April 03, 2020, 07:58:15 PM »


This is highly concerning, looking forwards:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1246135176461254657?s=21

Craig posted about that earlier in the thread, and he's in China.

Who is expecting things to go back to normal overnight?
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #1118 on: April 03, 2020, 08:04:28 PM »


This is highly concerning, looking forwards:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1246135176461254657?s=21

Craig posted about that earlier in the thread, and he's in China.

Who is expecting things to go back to normal overnight?

It’s just a bit tempting, until there’s evidence to the contrary, to hope that things won’t be as bad as they appear. For sure it would take something highly improbable and unexpected or slightly less improbably a vaccine, to prevent multiple subsequent waves.
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nirvana
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« Reply #1119 on: April 03, 2020, 08:11:45 PM »

...
On the end part, it very much started as a case of ‘should be doing it now’ (for a quite a long time and still to some extent now), rather than ‘should have done it sooner‘.

...


Like what?

I remember arguments about whether we should be in full lockdown - but that was on the way (it may have arrived sooner than the government anticipated in fact because less people than expected were voluntarily abiding by social distancing rules).
Also arguments about whether schools should be closed - but that was clearly and obviously on the way (I don't think anybody, at least in education were surprised at the timing of that announcement)
They kind of bypassed the idea of banning large assemblies as we went to full lockdown - but that was in line with the Imperial research which suggested that it was so insignificant without the other measures that it wasn't even worth graphing.
There's an ongoing disagreement about masks - and, even more than large assemblies, you might get opposing experts who don't agree with the governments advice, but you can see where the governement expert advice is.

There are some other measures that other countries have done, but they're primarily about enforcement rather than actual containment measures.


What do you think the measures they should be doing now are?

There is scope for a much more comprehensive lockdown, our lockdown is still significantly less than the countries that we accelerating past on the fatality growth rate charts. I accept this is really tough though, the problem we saw in Italy/France/Spain with a partial lockdown is holding your nerve when the fatality numbers get huge but you still don’t know how effective your existing lockdown has been. In the U.K. things like Football Associations/rugby authorities cancelling all fixtures was against the government advice. There was a wide consensus that Cheltenham would and should be cancelled. They talked about evidence based decisions for leaving schools open, what evidence did they have? Like many times when they’ve said evidence, what they actually mean is the projection of their model, in the absence of any actual evidence an earlier closure of the schools seemed prudent. They literally couldn’t have had meaningful data about the role of children in spreading it, so it’s strange to take the highest risk option.

At some stage it might be interesting to re-read this thread, which started on February 22nd to see the range of views. There was definitely a time where the discussion was about why we were waiting until a later point in the curve, as though we were trying to emulate Italy, when it seemed clear that what we had was an opportunity to act sooner, relatively speaking.

We’ve also allowed basically all non-essential work to continue, both situations where employees are apparently being forced to and situations where employers/employees have just carried on, notably in construction. We’ve no meaningful control over incoming international flights, including those from the worst afflicted places in the world. You’ll have some insight on the school closures, most teachers I know say 25/30% of kids are still coming in and basically all teachers who aren’t subject to quarantining guidelines are in as well.
I
This is true in Spain, Italy, and France too. They like to jack boot around a bit more than we tend to in terms of enforcing petty stuff  but plenty of non essential businesses open and working under distancing guidelines. I speak to people every day in these countries and USA and India. The only one with a lock down like you describe is india
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Marky147
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« Reply #1120 on: April 03, 2020, 08:15:55 PM »


This is highly concerning, looking forwards:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1246135176461254657?s=21

Craig posted about that earlier in the thread, and he's in China.

Who is expecting things to go back to normal overnight?

It’s just a bit tempting, until there’s evidence to the contrary, to hope that things won’t be as bad as they appear. For sure it would take something highly improbable and unexpected or slightly less improbably a vaccine, to prevent multiple subsequent waves.

No danger of that with you in here, lol.
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nirvana
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« Reply #1121 on: April 03, 2020, 08:17:30 PM »


This is highly concerning, looking forwards:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1246135176461254657?s=21

Craig posted about that earlier in the thread, and he's in China.

Who is expecting things to go back to normal overnight?

It’s just a bit tempting, until there’s evidence to the contrary, to hope that things won’t be as bad as they appear. For sure it would take something highly improbable and unexpected or slightly less improbably a vaccine, to prevent multiple subsequent waves.

Tbf. History shows that we have eradicated and/or contained many other killer diseases. We're more advanced than we ever were. I'd be 100% sure that we're certain to return to how things were before this from a medical perspective. Mentally and economically might take a bit longer
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nirvana
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« Reply #1122 on: April 03, 2020, 08:18:34 PM »

Sure and certain, the new strong and stable
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sola virtus nobilitat
Marky147
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« Reply #1123 on: April 03, 2020, 08:19:33 PM »

This is true in Spain, Italy, and France too. They like to jack boot around a bit more than we tend to in terms of enforcing petty stuff  but plenty of non essential businesses open and working under distancing guidelines. I speak to people every day in these countries and USA and India. The only one with a lock down like you describe is india

Mate of mine is stuck out in Spain at the moment and can't get back until the ferries start running and they're on lockdown over there.

Most of it shut and he's stuck in the gaff they're staying at. I know that because I'm getting about 900 memes/videos a day on messenger!
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #1124 on: April 03, 2020, 08:22:03 PM »


This is highly concerning, looking forwards:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1246135176461254657?s=21

Craig posted about that earlier in the thread, and he's in China.

Who is expecting things to go back to normal overnight?

It’s just a bit tempting, until there’s evidence to the contrary, to hope that things won’t be as bad as they appear. For sure it would take something highly improbable and unexpected or slightly less improbably a vaccine, to prevent multiple subsequent waves.

No danger of that with you in here, lol.

Ha, I’ll ease up on the negativity 👍.

Have a good weekend everyone!
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