poker news
blondepedia
card room
tournament schedule
uk results
galleries
Welcome,
Guest
. Please
login
or
register
.
June 10, 2024, 12:46:02 PM
1 Hour
1 Day
1 Week
1 Month
Forever
Login with username, password and session length
Search:
Advanced search
Order through Amazon and help blonde Poker
2272953
Posts in
66760
Topics by
16723
Members
Latest Member:
callpri
blonde poker forum
Community Forums
The Lounge
COVID19
0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.
« previous
next »
Pages:
1
...
72
73
74
75
[
76
]
77
78
79
80
...
305
Author
Topic: COVID19 (Read 368491 times)
Marky147
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 22801
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1125 on:
April 03, 2020, 08:28:44 PM »
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 03, 2020, 08:22:03 PM
Quote from: Marky147 on April 03, 2020, 08:15:55 PM
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 03, 2020, 08:04:28 PM
Quote from: Marky147 on April 03, 2020, 07:58:15 PM
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 03, 2020, 07:31:46 PM
This is highly concerning, looking forwards:
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1246135176461254657?s=21
Craig posted about that earlier in the thread, and he's in China.
Who is expecting things to go back to normal overnight?
It’s just a bit tempting, until there’s evidence to the contrary, to hope that things won’t be as bad as they appear. For sure it would take something highly improbable and unexpected or slightly less improbably a vaccine, to prevent multiple subsequent waves.
No danger of that with you in here, lol.
Ha, I’ll ease up on the negativity 👍.
Have a good weekend everyone!
We're not doing as well as some, and we've done better than others.
I've been in isolation for a few years, so it's easier for me, lol. Have a good weekend, mate
Logged
Burning $$$ in Vegas 2021
http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=68840.0
nirvana
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 7804
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1126 on:
April 03, 2020, 08:33:45 PM »
Quote from: Marky147 on April 03, 2020, 08:19:33 PM
Quote from: nirvana on April 03, 2020, 08:11:45 PM
This is true in Spain, Italy, and France too. They like to jack boot around a bit more than we tend to in terms of enforcing petty stuff but plenty of non essential businesses open and working under distancing guidelines. I speak to people every day in these countries and USA and India. The only one with a lock down like you describe is india
Mate of mine is stuck out in Spain at the moment and can't get back until the ferries start running and they're on lockdown over there.
Most of it shut and he's stuck in the gaff they're staying at. I know that because I'm getting about 900 memes/videos a day on messenger!
I'm probably a bit narrow in perspective working in a business to business environment which happens to be functioning.
Bummer for your mate
Logged
sola virtus nobilitat
Marky147
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 22801
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1127 on:
April 03, 2020, 08:50:53 PM »
Quote from: nirvana on April 03, 2020, 08:33:45 PM
Quote from: Marky147 on April 03, 2020, 08:19:33 PM
Quote from: nirvana on April 03, 2020, 08:11:45 PM
This is true in Spain, Italy, and France too. They like to jack boot around a bit more than we tend to in terms of enforcing petty stuff but plenty of non essential businesses open and working under distancing guidelines. I speak to people every day in these countries and USA and India. The only one with a lock down like you describe is india
Mate of mine is stuck out in Spain at the moment and can't get back until the ferries start running and they're on lockdown over there.
Most of it shut and he's stuck in the gaff they're staying at. I know that because I'm getting about 900 memes/videos a day on messenger!
I'm probably a bit narrow in perspective working in a business to business environment which happens to be functioning.
Bummer for your mate
He'd be ok, but he's out there with his mrs
Logged
Burning $$$ in Vegas 2021
http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=68840.0
Jon MW
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 6193
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1128 on:
April 03, 2020, 09:06:03 PM »
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 03, 2020, 07:50:12 PM
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 03, 2020, 07:17:19 PM
Quote from: Jon MW on April 03, 2020, 06:56:40 PM
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 03, 2020, 05:49:13 PM
...
On the end part, it very much started as a case of ‘should be doing it now’ (for a quite a long time and still to some extent now), rather than ‘should have done it sooner‘.
...
Like what?
I remember arguments about whether we should be in full lockdown - but that was on the way (it may have arrived sooner than the government anticipated in fact because less people than expected were voluntarily abiding by social distancing rules).
Also arguments about whether schools should be closed - but that was clearly and obviously on the way (I don't think anybody, at least in education were surprised at the timing of that announcement)
They kind of bypassed the idea of banning large assemblies as we went to full lockdown - but that was in line with the Imperial research which suggested that it was so insignificant without the other measures that it wasn't even worth graphing.
There's an ongoing disagreement about masks - and, even more than large assemblies, you might get opposing experts who don't agree with the governments advice, but you can see where the governement expert advice is.
There are some other measures that other countries have done, but they're primarily about enforcement rather than actual containment measures.
What do you think the measures they should be doing now are?
There is scope for a much more comprehensive lockdown, our lockdown is still significantly less than the countries that we accelerating past on the fatality growth rate charts. I accept this is really tough though, the problem we saw in Italy/France/Spain with a partial lockdown is holding your nerve when the fatality numbers get huge but you still don’t know how effective your existing lockdown has been. In the U.K. things like Football Associations/rugby authorities cancelling all fixtures was against the government advice. There was a wide consensus that Cheltenham would and should be cancelled. They talked about evidence based decisions for leaving schools open, what evidence did they have? Like many times when they’ve said evidence, what they actually mean is the projection of their model, in the absence of any actual evidence an earlier closure of the schools seemed prudent. They literally couldn’t have had meaningful data about the role of children in spreading it, so it’s strange to take the highest risk option.
At some stage it might be interesting to re-read this thread, which started on February 22nd to see the range of views. There was definitely a time where the discussion was about why we were waiting until a later point in the curve, as though we were trying to emulate Italy, when it seemed clear that what we had was an opportunity to act sooner, relatively speaking.
We’ve also allowed basically all non-essential work to continue, both situations where employees are apparently being forced to and situations where employers/employees have just carried on, notably in construction. We’ve no meaningful control over incoming international flights, including those from the worst afflicted places in the world. You’ll have some insight on the school closures, most teachers I know say 25/30% of kids are still coming in and basically all teachers who aren’t subject to quarantining guidelines are in as well.
The closing non-essential work is pretty much the only lever left to pull in terms of restrictions - almost everything else is, like I said, about enforcement.
The fact that all the European countries are issuing thousands and thousands and thousands of fines for people not complying with the rules gives an indication that you really have to look at just how effective ramping up enforcement measures actually are.
The closing non-essential work is a bit trickier, if we don't go over the ICU capacity then it definitely wasn't needed and if we do go over the ICU capacity there's a chance it would have made a difference.
Similarly with banning incoming flights - flights are down by 80-90% on their normal levels, how much difference would a complete ban make?
As things stand there doesn't seem to be much evidence pointing towards us needing to increase either enforcement or restrictions though.
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 03, 2020, 07:50:12 PM
...
They talked about evidence based decisions for leaving schools open, what evidence did they have? Like many times when they’ve said evidence, what they actually mean is the projection of their model, in the absence of any actual evidence an earlier closure of the schools seemed prudent. They literally couldn’t have had meaningful data about the role of children in spreading it, so it’s strange to take the highest risk option.
...
That is just wrong.
They had a lot of data from the existing spread of the disease, particularly China. That showed that very few children were diagnosed with it.
This is very relevant - in a 'normal' flu epidemic children are basically super spreaders. This showed that at worst they had the same chance spreading it as adults. The modelling they based their decisions on showed that there was likely to be a significant benefit from closing schools - but it was nowhere near the same level as a normal flu epidemic would be; and carried a large level of uncertainty of how this would affect NHS capacity.
When they did close the schools they had the bold move of cancelling exams and keeping schools open for essential staff - getting the best of both worlds. But to suggest they didn't have any evidence to keep them open is just wrong.
Curious what you said about teachers. Do you know many of them? Are they primary school teachers?
My wife's school has a normal roll of 2000; when the schools closed they started with 2 teachers and 30 pupils coming in and a few pupils have since stopped doing so and are working from home.
Higher numbers would suggest primary school, but as I alluded to before, if they're higher it's because their parents are needed. Or definitely should be, schools aren't meant to be making any exceptions. If schools are allowing pupils who's parents aren't in essential work then they're causing part of the problem.
It would be quite interesting to see a graph or two on the national picture in one of the daily briefings to shed some light on it.
Logged
Jon "the British cowboy" Woodfield
2011 blonde MTT League August Champion
2011 UK Team Championships: Black Belt Poker Team Captain - - runners up - -
5 Star HORSE Classic - 2007 Razz Champion
2007 WSOP Razz - 13/341
Woodsey
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 15846
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1129 on:
April 03, 2020, 09:38:26 PM »
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 03, 2020, 08:22:03 PM
Quote from: Marky147 on April 03, 2020, 08:15:55 PM
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 03, 2020, 08:04:28 PM
Quote from: Marky147 on April 03, 2020, 07:58:15 PM
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 03, 2020, 07:31:46 PM
This is highly concerning, looking forwards:
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1246135176461254657?s=21
Craig posted about that earlier in the thread, and he's in China.
Who is expecting things to go back to normal overnight?
It’s just a bit tempting, until there’s evidence to the contrary, to hope that things won’t be as bad as they appear. For sure it would take something highly improbable and unexpected or slightly less improbably a vaccine, to prevent multiple subsequent waves.
No danger of that with you in here, lol.
Ha, I’ll ease up on the negativity 👍.
Have a good weekend everyone!
No chance you can do it!
Logged
kukushkin88
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 3892
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1130 on:
April 03, 2020, 09:45:59 PM »
Quote from: Jon MW on April 03, 2020, 09:06:03 PM
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 03, 2020, 07:50:12 PM
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 03, 2020, 07:17:19 PM
Quote from: Jon MW on April 03, 2020, 06:56:40 PM
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 03, 2020, 05:49:13 PM
...
On the end part, it very much started as a case of ‘should be doing it now’ (for a quite a long time and still to some extent now), rather than ‘should have done it sooner‘.
...
Like what?
I remember arguments about whether we should be in full lockdown - but that was on the way (it may have arrived sooner than the government anticipated in fact because less people than expected were voluntarily abiding by social distancing rules).
Also arguments about whether schools should be closed - but that was clearly and obviously on the way (I don't think anybody, at least in education were surprised at the timing of that announcement)
They kind of bypassed the idea of banning large assemblies as we went to full lockdown - but that was in line with the Imperial research which suggested that it was so insignificant without the other measures that it wasn't even worth graphing.
There's an ongoing disagreement about masks - and, even more than large assemblies, you might get opposing experts who don't agree with the governments advice, but you can see where the governement expert advice is.
There are some other measures that other countries have done, but they're primarily about enforcement rather than actual containment measures.
What do you think the measures they should be doing now are?
There is scope for a much more comprehensive lockdown, our lockdown is still significantly less than the countries that we accelerating past on the fatality growth rate charts. I accept this is really tough though, the problem we saw in Italy/France/Spain with a partial lockdown is holding your nerve when the fatality numbers get huge but you still don’t know how effective your existing lockdown has been. In the U.K. things like Football Associations/rugby authorities cancelling all fixtures was against the government advice. There was a wide consensus that Cheltenham would and should be cancelled. They talked about evidence based decisions for leaving schools open, what evidence did they have? Like many times when they’ve said evidence, what they actually mean is the projection of their model, in the absence of any actual evidence an earlier closure of the schools seemed prudent. They literally couldn’t have had meaningful data about the role of children in spreading it, so it’s strange to take the highest risk option.
At some stage it might be interesting to re-read this thread, which started on February 22nd to see the range of views. There was definitely a time where the discussion was about why we were waiting until a later point in the curve, as though we were trying to emulate Italy, when it seemed clear that what we had was an opportunity to act sooner, relatively speaking.
We’ve also allowed basically all non-essential work to continue, both situations where employees are apparently being forced to and situations where employers/employees have just carried on, notably in construction. We’ve no meaningful control over incoming international flights, including those from the worst afflicted places in the world. You’ll have some insight on the school closures, most teachers I know say 25/30% of kids are still coming in and basically all teachers who aren’t subject to quarantining guidelines are in as well.
The closing non-essential work is pretty much the only lever left to pull in terms of restrictions - almost everything else is, like I said, about enforcement.
The fact that all the European countries are issuing thousands and thousands and thousands of fines for people not complying with the rules gives an indication that you really have to look at just how effective ramping up enforcement measures actually are.
The closing non-essential work is a bit trickier, if we don't go over the ICU capacity then it definitely wasn't needed and if we do go over the ICU capacity there's a chance it would have made a difference.
Similarly with banning incoming flights - flights are down by 80-90% on their normal levels, how much difference would a complete ban make?
As things stand there doesn't seem to be much evidence pointing towards us needing to increase either enforcement or restrictions though.
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 03, 2020, 07:50:12 PM
...
They talked about evidence based decisions for leaving schools open, what evidence did they have? Like many times when they’ve said evidence, what they actually mean is the projection of their model, in the absence of any actual evidence an earlier closure of the schools seemed prudent. They literally couldn’t have had meaningful data about the role of children in spreading it, so it’s strange to take the highest risk option.
...
That is just wrong.
They had a lot of data from the existing spread of the disease, particularly China. That showed that very few children were diagnosed with it.
This is very relevant - in a 'normal' flu epidemic children are basically super spreaders. This showed that at worst they had the same chance spreading it as adults. The modelling they based their decisions on showed that there was likely to be a significant benefit from closing schools - but it was nowhere near the same level as a normal flu epidemic would be; and carried a large level of uncertainty of how this would affect NHS capacity.
When they did close the schools they had the bold move of cancelling exams and keeping schools open for essential staff - getting the best of both worlds. But to suggest they didn't have any evidence to keep them open is just wrong.
Curious what you said about teachers. Do you know many of them? Are they primary school teachers?
My wife's school has a normal roll of 2000; when the schools closed they started with 2 teachers and 30 pupils coming in and a few pupils have since stopped doing so and are working from home.
Higher numbers would suggest primary school, but as I alluded to before, if they're higher it's because their parents are needed. Or definitely should be, schools aren't meant to be making any exceptions. If schools are allowing pupils who's parents aren't in essential work then they're causing part of the problem.
It would be quite interesting to see a graph or two on the national picture in one of the daily briefings to shed some light on it.
Thanks for the comprehensive reply.
Yes, it is primary school teachers, in north Herts and Leicester/Loughborough. It’s the sort of data John Burn-Murdoch will probably get hold of at some stage the way he is going.
I probably was overstating my understanding of the role of children as spreaders, whilst not displaying symptoms (thanks for the extra info), I was aware that children had been displaying in the main only mild symptoms, I wasn’t aware of evidence on how this would translate to their capacity to spread infection.
Logged
kukushkin88
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 3892
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1131 on:
April 03, 2020, 09:48:31 PM »
Quote from: Woodsey on April 03, 2020, 09:38:26 PM
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 03, 2020, 08:22:03 PM
Quote from: Marky147 on April 03, 2020, 08:15:55 PM
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 03, 2020, 08:04:28 PM
Quote from: Marky147 on April 03, 2020, 07:58:15 PM
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 03, 2020, 07:31:46 PM
This is highly concerning, looking forwards:
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1246135176461254657?s=21
Craig posted about that earlier in the thread, and he's in China.
Who is expecting things to go back to normal overnight?
It’s just a bit tempting, until there’s evidence to the contrary, to hope that things won’t be as bad as they appear. For sure it would take something highly improbable and unexpected or slightly less improbably a vaccine, to prevent multiple subsequent waves.
No danger of that with you in here, lol.
Ha, I’ll ease up on the negativity 👍.
Have a good weekend everyone!
No chance you can do it!
Thanks for the vote of confidence!
I hope you and your family stay well through all of this. I’m thinking/hoping next years six nations might be a sensible timescale for normality retuning.
Logged
RickBFA
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 2001
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1132 on:
April 03, 2020, 11:08:14 PM »
My next door but one neighbour is a doctor at Sheffield Children’s Hospital. She was telling me that she has learnt this week that kids don’t have the same receptors in their cells to pick up the virus.
Don’t really understand this but as an example, my wife’s friend and her husband (a GP) have been diagnosed but their three kids have been totally unaffected.
Logged
kukushkin88
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 3892
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1133 on:
April 04, 2020, 11:53:09 AM »
Quote from: RickBFA on April 03, 2020, 11:08:14 PM
My next door but one neighbour is a doctor at Sheffield Children’s Hospital. She was telling me that she has learnt this week that kids don’t have the same receptors in their cells to pick up the virus.
Don’t really understand this but as an example, my wife’s friend and her husband (a GP) have been diagnosed but their three kids have been totally unaffected.
Good morning all,
Big edit on my comment on the first part. Just spoke to my brother in law who is a Professor of Pharmacology, he says the idea is possible but there’s no knowledge of such a thing in the wide (including international) scientific community.
In the second paragraph, it is extremely likely that the children have the disease asymptomatically. Do you know if the parents have actually been tested?
«
Last Edit: April 04, 2020, 12:01:15 PM by kukushkin88
»
Logged
RickBFA
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 2001
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1134 on:
April 04, 2020, 12:38:48 PM »
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 04, 2020, 11:53:09 AM
Quote from: RickBFA on April 03, 2020, 11:08:14 PM
My next door but one neighbour is a doctor at Sheffield Children’s Hospital. She was telling me that she has learnt this week that kids don’t have the same receptors in their cells to pick up the virus.
Don’t really understand this but as an example, my wife’s friend and her husband (a GP) have been diagnosed but their three kids have been totally unaffected.
Good morning all,
Big edit on my comment on the first part. Just spoke to my brother in law who is a Professor of Pharmacology, he says the idea is possible but there’s no knowledge of such a thing in the wide (including international) scientific community.
In the second paragraph, it is extremely likely that the children have the disease asymptomatically. Do you know if the parents have actually been tested?
On the first part, not saying it’s 100% accurate, just what I was told. She is likely to have picked up the information/theory from a medical source given her position.
On the second, the father was definitely tested as he is a GP and was confirmed positive. His wife wasn’t but has same symptoms.
You could be right, the kids could have it but were unaffected.
Logged
Doobs
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 16595
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1135 on:
April 04, 2020, 12:43:53 PM »
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 04, 2020, 11:53:09 AM
Quote from: RickBFA on April 03, 2020, 11:08:14 PM
My next door but one neighbour is a doctor at Sheffield Children’s Hospital. She was telling me that she has learnt this week that kids don’t have the same receptors in their cells to pick up the virus.
Don’t really understand this but as an example, my wife’s friend and her husband (a GP) have been diagnosed but their three kids have been totally unaffected.
Good morning all,
Big edit on my comment on the first part. Just spoke to my brother in law who is a Professor of Pharmacology, he says the idea is possible but there’s no knowledge of such a thing in the wide (including international) scientific community.
In the second paragraph, it is extremely likely that the children have the disease asymptomatically. Do you know if the parents have actually been tested?
It seems like it is one of the theories been thrown about
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/possible-biological-explanations-for-kids-escape-from-covid-19-67273
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200330-coronavirus-are-children-immune-to-covid-19
Logged
Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Chompy
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 11852
Expert
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1136 on:
April 04, 2020, 01:21:57 PM »
Lovely day out there. Anyone up for a spot of 5G mast burning?
Logged
"I know we must all worship at the Church of Chomps, but statements like this are just plain ridic. He says he can't get a bet on, but we all know he can."
TightEnd
Administrator
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1137 on:
April 04, 2020, 01:30:10 PM »
the anti-vaxx truthers have to move onto something, i suppose. Fairly crowded venn diagram intersection i would think.
Logged
My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
Marky147
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 22801
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1138 on:
April 04, 2020, 02:47:47 PM »
Logged
Burning $$$ in Vegas 2021
http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=68840.0
kukushkin88
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 3892
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1139 on:
April 04, 2020, 06:12:21 PM »
It is a massively long read but really does have lots of good insight. Hopefully helpful on the idea China are just making their numbers up as well.
https://twitter.com/atatimelikethis/status/1246392991524229123?s=21
Logged
Pages:
1
...
72
73
74
75
[
76
]
77
78
79
80
...
305
« previous
next »
Jump to:
Please select a destination:
-----------------------------
Poker Forums
-----------------------------
=> The Rail
===> past blonde Bashes
===> Best of blonde
=> Diaries and Blogs
=> Live Tournament Updates
=> Live poker
===> Live Tournament Staking
=> Internet Poker
===> Online Tournament Staking
=> Poker Hand Analysis
===> Learning Centre
-----------------------------
Community Forums
-----------------------------
=> The Lounge
=> Betting Tips and Sport Discussion
Loading...