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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 353869 times)
kukushkin88
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« Reply #1425 on: April 14, 2020, 04:50:58 PM »


More good question suggestions for the press conference, this time from Leighton Andrews:

https://alastaircampbell.org/2020/04/ten-very-good-questions-for-todays-briefing/



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kukushkin88
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« Reply #1426 on: April 14, 2020, 06:02:40 PM »


Since people seem to like Andrew Neil:

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1250091796522246146?s=21

https://www.dkv.global/covid-19-country-risk-level
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Doobs
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« Reply #1427 on: April 14, 2020, 07:05:59 PM »


that link doesn't seem the best

https://www.dkv.global/safety-ranking
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
kukushkin88
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« Reply #1428 on: April 14, 2020, 07:13:43 PM »


Good evening,

Thanks for the better link. There’s a huge amount of detail in there but it takes a bit of navigating (certainly on a phone).
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Jon MW
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« Reply #1429 on: April 14, 2020, 07:37:22 PM »

I saw another mention somewhere else basically asking why the UK is not doing as well as Ireland (and another one asking why Ireland is not doing as well as Norway).

Aside from the obvious about population size, density and differing connectivity (the UK is over 10 times as big, 15 times as dense and Heathrow by itself handles over twice as many passengers per year as the whole of Ireland), the last point made me wonder about the role tourism might play.

In this pandemic in particular we know that there was an unknown amount of time when people had the virus but China didn't release any information about it. So it stands to reason that there could have been two traffic in infections in that time.

For what it's worth I found a basic comparison to make on this factor:
Top 10 tourist destinations in the world
France
Spain
USA
China
Italy
Mexico
UK
Turkey
Germany
Thailand

Top 10 highest number of COVID19 cases (as of now)
USA
Spain
Italy
France
Germany
UK
China
Iran
Turkey
Belgium

As I've said before, there are 100's of factors which can make a difference - but I thought it was an interesting correlation.
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Jon "the British cowboy" Woodfield

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« Reply #1430 on: April 14, 2020, 11:39:48 PM »

trump is halting funding to WHO accusing them of costing 20 fold of lives through there inactions
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« Reply #1431 on: April 15, 2020, 12:01:49 AM »

I'm going to have to stop watching TV coverage, too frustrating.

Only a few weeks ago many people attacked the Government for giving mixed messages and pleading for a hard lockdown and a simple message.

If anything the lockdown has been more softly softly than people were calling for but the message has become very simple - stay home etc.

Watching Newsnight you have the Govt now being attacked for not publishing an exit strategy NOW and for insulting the public's intelligence by not trusting them with a mixed message of 1) stay home and 2) here's the exit strategy

How does this help, it's more than just challenging and asking exploratory questions - it's deliberately sensationalist, pointless and stupid. I need to find the off button.
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Marky147
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« Reply #1432 on: April 15, 2020, 12:50:36 AM »

Gave up ages ago, but sometimes watch the pressers if Rishi is on, and if I can read this if I want to get a little annoyed Smiley

I watch the Donald when I want to be bemused, amused, and thankful I don't live there.
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MintTrav
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« Reply #1433 on: April 15, 2020, 01:00:41 AM »

Gave up ages ago, but sometimes watch the pressers if Rishi is on, and if I can read this if I want to get a little annoyed Smiley

I watch the Donald when I want to be bemused, amused, and thankful I don't live there.

Whatever about Trump's many many faults, there are times when he goes into a huge amount of detail about what they are doing, including a lot of non-health detail, contrasting so much with the airbrushed presentations we get in this country. I feel I learn about what is going on from his briefings (albeit with a load of propaganda), whereas I don't get much more than a list of statistics from our identikit briefings.
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Marky147
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« Reply #1434 on: April 15, 2020, 01:23:01 AM »

Gave up ages ago, but sometimes watch the pressers if Rishi is on, and if I can read this if I want to get a little annoyed Smiley

I watch the Donald when I want to be bemused, amused, and thankful I don't live there.

Whatever about Trump's many many faults, there are times when he goes into a huge amount of detail about what they are doing, including a lot of non-health detail, contrasting so much with the airbrushed presentations we get in this country. I feel I learn about what is going on from his briefings (albeit with a load of propaganda), whereas I don't get much more than a list of statistics from our identikit briefings.

To be fair to him, he has gotten a lot better over the last few years, and when he can manage not to segue so often, is definitely better than Boris.
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Woodsey
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« Reply #1435 on: April 15, 2020, 02:01:01 AM »

I'm going to have to stop watching TV coverage, too frustrating.

Only a few weeks ago many people attacked the Government for giving mixed messages and pleading for a hard lockdown and a simple message.

If anything the lockdown has been more softly softly than people were calling for but the message has become very simple - stay home etc.

Watching Newsnight you have the Govt now being attacked for not publishing an exit strategy NOW and for insulting the public's intelligence by not trusting them with a mixed message of 1) stay home and 2) here's the exit strategy

How does this help, it's more than just challenging and asking exploratory questions - it's deliberately sensationalist, pointless and stupid. I need to find the off button.

It’s just the same bellends that are whining about death rates etc, it honestly doesn’t matter what the govt do they would still be whining about it. The government shut down everything early wahhhhhh........your damaging the economy too much and killing people by locking them up at home, the government waits a couple of weeks longer wahhhh........your killing people as too many are infected, it’s a no win situation. As I’ve said many times on here nobody will really know what the right move was until its largely done and dusted and they have a chance to reflect on everything.
« Last Edit: April 15, 2020, 02:16:46 AM by Woodsey » Logged
MintTrav
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« Reply #1436 on: April 15, 2020, 03:58:34 AM »

We need to wait to have the Inquiries, but we know already that the UK outcome has been an abysmal failure.

The UK has a far bigger population but, apart from that, there are many similarities between the two countries. Yet, the death rate per 1,000 from Covid in the UK is more than twice that of Ireland. (We know the UK's figures are vastly understated, probably by at least 60%, and maybe up to 100%, but I'm not sure there's any reason to think that Ireland is any better in that regard.)

So why is Ireland's performance so much better than the UK's? Mainly because it reacted quicker and closed everything down a week before the UK. That's not it dispute.

Have a read of this: https://twitter.com/laineydoyle/status/1249127908876128259

However, it's not that Ireland's performance has outstandingly good. It has actually been terrible, one of the worst in the world. So what does that say about the UK's, to be so much worse? We don't have to wait to know whether it has been bad. In fact, we don't have to wait to know some of the reasons. However, we should wait to go through the process, unless there are aspects of the investigation that can help at this stage. However, while Irish performance may have been bad, it is getting better, with one of the highest rates of testing per thousand in the world in the last week. Why can't we match that?

Drive-through testing centre in Croke Park:
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DungBeetle
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« Reply #1437 on: April 15, 2020, 07:39:00 AM »

We need to wait to have the Inquiries, but we know already that the UK outcome has been an abysmal failure.

The UK has a far bigger population but, apart from that, there are many similarities between the two countries. Yet, the death rate per 1,000 from Covid in the UK is more than twice that of Ireland. (We know the UK's figures are vastly understated, probably by at least 60%, and maybe up to 100%, but I'm not sure there's any reason to think that Ireland is any better in that regard.)

So why is Ireland's performance so much better than the UK's? Mainly because it reacted quicker and closed everything down a week before the UK. That's not it dispute.

Have a read of this: https://twitter.com/laineydoyle/status/1249127908876128259

However, it's not that Ireland's performance has outstandingly good. It has actually been terrible, one of the worst in the world. So what does that say about the UK's, to be so much worse? We don't have to wait to know whether it has been bad. In fact, we don't have to wait to know some of the reasons. However, we should wait to go through the process, unless there are aspects of the investigation that can help at this stage. However, while Irish performance may have been bad, it is getting better, with one of the highest rates of testing per thousand in the world in the last week. Why can't we match that?

Drive-through testing centre in Croke Park:


If the Irish have one of the highest rates of testing in the world isn’t that why death rate is better than UK?  The more people you test the more mild symptom cases you capture.  Or am I missing something?
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Jon MW
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« Reply #1438 on: April 15, 2020, 08:09:32 AM »

We need to wait to have the Inquiries, but we know already that the UK outcome has been an abysmal failure.

The UK has a far bigger population but, apart from that, there are many similarities between the two countries. Yet, the death rate per 1,000 from Covid in the UK is more than twice that of Ireland. (We know the UK's figures are vastly understated, probably by at least 60%, and maybe up to 100%, but I'm not sure there's any reason to think that Ireland is any better in that regard.)

So why is Ireland's performance so much better than the UK's? Mainly because it reacted quicker and closed everything down a week before the UK. That's not it dispute.

Have a read of this: https://twitter.com/laineydoyle/status/1249127908876128259

However, it's not that Ireland's performance has outstandingly good. It has actually been terrible, one of the worst in the world. So what does that say about the UK's, to be so much worse? We don't have to wait to know whether it has been bad. In fact, we don't have to wait to know some of the reasons. However, we should wait to go through the process, unless there are aspects of the investigation that can help at this stage. However, while Irish performance may have been bad, it is getting better, with one of the highest rates of testing per thousand in the world in the last week. Why can't we match that?

Drive-through testing centre in Croke Park:


If the Irish have one of the highest rates of testing in the world isn’t that why death rate is better than UK?  The more people you test the more mild symptom cases you capture.  Or am I missing something?

The people with mild symptoms aren't going to be the ones who died.

That would affect the results if you're looking at the number who died out of those infected rather than per capita.

However.

The twitter thread that is attached can basically be summed up by: UK has a worse per capita death rate than Ireland, Ireland introduced restrictions earlier therefore the UK introduced restrictions too late.

To expand on why the important factors are important.

The first thing any country should do in an epidemic is track and trace every imported case into their country.

But this virus was around for an unknown amount of time before it was officially announced.

The UK and China are both in the top 10 of tourist destinations in the world, and Heathrow by itself has over twice as many passengers as the whole of Ireland.

Therefore it's reasonable to assume that when track and tracing started there was already a higher number of infections in the UK than there was in Ireland.

The UK also has over twice the population density as Ireland. The virus needs people to spread, the more people you have in the smaller amount of space, the more it'll spread.

This is a complicated factor because obviously you could have a desert occupying half your country and mega metropolises in the other half for example, but in general it would also be reasonable to assume that the virus spreads faster in the UK.

So the UK will have started with a higher number than Ireland and it will have spread faster.

The other thing to take into account is that epidemics start off with exponential growth so a per capita comparison (a linear comparison) doesn't particularly help. If you have double the amount to start with - you are going to have more than double the amount after a while, a per capita comparison doesn't take into account the change over time.

Finally, the big factor that is under reported is luck.

Of the first 100 people who bring a virus into a country.
0 to a 100 of them might think - I'm ill I'll go to a doctor
0 to a 100 of them might think - it's not too bad I'll manage
0 to a 100 of them might be single people with no family and not much of a social circle
0 to a 100 of them might have large families and large social circles.

The balance of answers to questions like these will vastly affect the path of the epidemic.

But in summary, the reason why the newspapers aren't leading on the difference between Ireland and the UK is because it's a terrible comparison to make and it just won't sell papers.
« Last Edit: April 15, 2020, 08:11:24 AM by Jon MW » Logged

Jon "the British cowboy" Woodfield

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« Reply #1439 on: April 15, 2020, 08:13:41 AM »

There are two factors that affect the spread of Covid19

One. How dense the population is

Two. How dense the population is
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"More than at any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly."
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