COVID19

[kukushkin88]

Might be one where Doobs can provide insight. Is there a chance that we are doing a better job than all the comparable nations (and Ireland) in getting seriously unwell people from care homes to hospital?

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1253245532572712961?s=21

It says 57% of Covid deaths in Ireland are in care homes, compared with 13-14% here. After a slow start, Ireland is in the process of testing all care home staff and patients, which should be completed around the end of this week, whereas our official policy is to test the first five victims after they have shown symptoms and try to get to a point where all those showing symptoms get tested. Do you think it’s more likely that the disparity in the percentages is because we are identifying and getting the victims into hospital quicker or because Covid-related deaths in care homes are not being counted as such?

“All care home residents and social care staff with coronavirus (COVID-19) symptoms will be tested as capacity is built up.”
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-to-offer-testing-for-everyone-who-needs-one-in-social-care-settings

I was just experimenting in how I asked the question but yes, based on everything we know, it does seem implausible that we are the leading nation in Europe at getting critically ill old people to hospital.

[kukushkin88]

More interesting work, along similar lines and broadly in agreement with the actuary reports.

https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75

[kukushkin88]

... but this pandemic is not the pandemic they have been planning badly for - it is a totally new beast.

No one was complaining that the only factory on earth that made nasal swabs was situated in the northern Italy, its ability to produce was limited by events. Who knew that so much PPE was made in Hubei. Who predicted that demand for face masks would go up 900% (in France but the uk is still secret) whilst simultaneously that only places that made it would be closed and knocked offline, who predictions included that the USA would go round outbidding all other counties for any on the open market.

Politicians are very good at fixing problems the media are shouting at them about, they are not good at looking ahead and planning for a few weeks ahead.

...

For some context about the pandemic they were planning for, there was a pandemic response simulation in November 2019

https://hub.jhu.edu/2019/11/06/event-201-health-security/

The response overall, by every country, was .... poor.

This was the index they produced to rank countries on how prepared they were for a pandemic.

https://www.ghsindex.org/

As well as unexpected logistical issues like you mentioned, some countries (USA) have unexpected (?) political issues - but this was in theory how well everyone was prepared for a pandemic just before we got one.

Doesn’t this make the way that the situation in the US and UK has played out look even worse? Maybe another (very minor, relatively speaking) exhibit for the ‘you f***ed this up big time’ side of the discussions that will be heard at the Public Inquiry?

[Doobs]

Latest CMI update

https://www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files/field/document/Mortality%20monitor%20Week%2015%202020%20v01%202020-04-21.pdf

CMI stuff is usually pretty dull, but there are some other intresting charts in there.  The headline is below.

Our analysis suggests that there could already have been around 26,000 to 32,000 cumulative excess deaths in England & Wales. Applying the same method to the PHE figure for UK deaths suggests around 28,000 to 34,000 excess deaths in the UK.

If you look at chart 1, you can see that, for the UK, 2020 was previously on track to be one of the best years in the last 10 for mortality before COVID came along.  I assume this was because the weather was mostly mild over winter and the flu strain wasn't particularly virulent.  This was why you got a raft of COVID deniers saying things like if COVID is so serious why are less people dying?  See the chart after 1 April to refute that one.    

 

[kukushkin88]

It does seem that they’ll be taking a not particularly adventurous route for lying about missing the 100,000 tests a day target. They will say only that there was capacity to test 100,000 but not the demand. A dangerously dumb thing to do when we need to get to approx 10 times as many as that a day as soon as possible but you wouldn’t expect anything different.

[Jon MW]

... but this pandemic is not the pandemic they have been planning badly for - it is a totally new beast.

No one was complaining that the only factory on earth that made nasal swabs was situated in the northern Italy, its ability to produce was limited by events. Who knew that so much PPE was made in Hubei. Who predicted that demand for face masks would go up 900% (in France but the uk is still secret) whilst simultaneously that only places that made it would be closed and knocked offline, who predictions included that the USA would go round outbidding all other counties for any on the open market.

Politicians are very good at fixing problems the media are shouting at them about, they are not good at looking ahead and planning for a few weeks ahead.

...

For some context about the pandemic they were planning for, there was a pandemic response simulation in November 2019

https://hub.jhu.edu/2019/11/06/event-201-health-security/

The response overall, by every country, was .... poor.

This was the index they produced to rank countries on how prepared they were for a pandemic.

https://www.ghsindex.org/

As well as unexpected logistical issues like you mentioned, some countries (USA) have unexpected (?) political issues - but this was in theory how well everyone was prepared for a pandemic just before we got one.

Doesn’t this make the way that the situation in the US and UK has played out look even worse? Maybe another (very minor, relatively speaking) exhibit for the ‘you f***ed this up big time’ side of the discussions that will be heard at the Public Inquiry?

There's a lot of data on that site and in that simulation. It can definitely provide potentially useful information about the difference between the simulated response and actual response.

For example one of the criteria was if there are plans written up for how private industry is going to work with the government in the case of a worldwide biological event. Germany scored 0/100 and the UK scored 50/100. In practise both countries had private industry work with them quite well and it would appear that Germany utilised private industry more productively.

Apart from Germany the UK looks like it's having a similar epidemic to other European countries of similar size - Spain, Italy and France (I'm not sure if there are any other European countries which are similar sized). The UK doing badly compared to comparable countries is still not a given.

And also, the comparative ranking was good for the UK in this simulation - but every country did badly, so 'good' in these terms still wasn't particularly good.

[MintTrav]

... but this pandemic is not the pandemic they have been planning badly for - it is a totally new beast.

No one was complaining that the only factory on earth that made nasal swabs was situated in the northern Italy, its ability to produce was limited by events. Who knew that so much PPE was made in Hubei. Who predicted that demand for face masks would go up 900% (in France but the uk is still secret) whilst simultaneously that only places that made it would be closed and knocked offline, who predictions included that the USA would go round outbidding all other counties for any on the open market.

Politicians are very good at fixing problems the media are shouting at them about, they are not good at looking ahead and planning for a few weeks ahead.

...

For some context about the pandemic they were planning for, there was a pandemic response simulation in November 2019

https://hub.jhu.edu/2019/11/06/event-201-health-security/

The response overall, by every country, was .... poor.

This was the index they produced to rank countries on how prepared they were for a pandemic.

https://www.ghsindex.org/

As well as unexpected logistical issues like you mentioned, some countries (USA) have unexpected (?) political issues - but this was in theory how well everyone was prepared for a pandemic just before we got one.

Doesn’t this make the way that the situation in the US and UK has played out look even worse? Maybe another (very minor, relatively speaking) exhibit for the ‘you f***ed this up big time’ side of the discussions that will be heard at the Public Inquiry?

There's a lot of data on that site and in that simulation. It can definitely provide potentially useful information about the difference between the simulated response and actual response.

For example one of the criteria was if there are plans written up for how private industry is going to work with the government in the case of a worldwide biological event. Germany scored 0/100 and the UK scored 50/100. In practise both countries had private industry work with them quite well and it would appear that Germany utilised private industry more productively.

Apart from Germany the UK looks like it's having a similar epidemic to other European countries of similar size - Spain, Italy and France (I'm not sure if there are any other European countries which are similar sized). The UK doing badly compared to comparable countries is still not a given.

And also, the comparative ranking was good for the UK in this simulation - but every country did badly, so 'good' in these terms still wasn't particularly good.

Poland  - Pop 38m. 10,346 cases - 435 deaths, 1,740 recovered, 8,171 active (8,011 mild, 160 serious), deaths/million 11.
Ukraine - Pop 44m.   7,170 cases - 187 deaths,   504 recovered, 6,479 active (6,434 mild,   45 serious), deaths/million   4.

Eastern Europe seems to have away fairly lightly so far all round, though I've no idea how good or bad their stat recording is.

Ignoring tiny countries, Belgium is by far the worst affected in terms of recorded deaths/million pop so far, though the quality of data won't be consistent. You could probably add 50% onto the UK figure, but the same may be true of some of the others - probably all of them are understated to some extent. Also, countries are at different stages:

Deaths/Million
560 Belgium
474 Spain
415 Italy
327 France
267 UK
244 Neth
200 Sweden
174 Switz
156 Ireland
144 USA

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

[MintTrav]

Belgium is being accused of being too honest, as it is including retirement homes, but 4% of those deaths are identified Covid cases and 96% are suspected ones.
On the other hand, it may be the only country reporting the true rate.

https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/22/analysis-can-we-trust-belgium-s-covid-19-death-statistics

[kukushkin88]

... but this pandemic is not the pandemic they have been planning badly for - it is a totally new beast.

No one was complaining that the only factory on earth that made nasal swabs was situated in the northern Italy, its ability to produce was limited by events. Who knew that so much PPE was made in Hubei. Who predicted that demand for face masks would go up 900% (in France but the uk is still secret) whilst simultaneously that only places that made it would be closed and knocked offline, who predictions included that the USA would go round outbidding all other counties for any on the open market.

Politicians are very good at fixing problems the media are shouting at them about, they are not good at looking ahead and planning for a few weeks ahead.

...

For some context about the pandemic they were planning for, there was a pandemic response simulation in November 2019

https://hub.jhu.edu/2019/11/06/event-201-health-security/

The response overall, by every country, was .... poor.

This was the index they produced to rank countries on how prepared they were for a pandemic.

https://www.ghsindex.org/

As well as unexpected logistical issues like you mentioned, some countries (USA) have unexpected (?) political issues - but this was in theory how well everyone was prepared for a pandemic just before we got one.

Doesn’t this make the way that the situation in the US and UK has played out look even worse? Maybe another (very minor, relatively speaking) exhibit for the ‘you f***ed this up big time’ side of the discussions that will be heard at the Public Inquiry?

There's a lot of data on that site and in that simulation. It can definitely provide potentially useful information about the difference between the simulated response and actual response.

For example one of the criteria was if there are plans written up for how private industry is going to work with the government in the case of a worldwide biological event. Germany scored 0/100 and the UK scored 50/100. In practise both countries had private industry work with them quite well and it would appear that Germany utilised private industry more productively.

Apart from Germany the UK looks like it's having a similar epidemic to other European countries of similar size - Spain, Italy and France (I'm not sure if there are any other European countries which are similar sized). The UK doing badly compared to comparable countries is still not a given.

And also, the comparative ranking was good for the UK in this simulation - but every country did badly, so 'good' in these terms still wasn't particularly good.

Poland  - Pop 38m. 10,346 cases - 435 deaths, 1,740 recovered, 8,171 active (8,011 mild, 160 serious), deaths/million 11.
Ukraine - Pop 44m.   7,170 cases - 187 deaths,   504 recovered, 6,479 active (6,434 mild,   45 serious), deaths/million   4.

Eastern Europe seems to have away fairly lightly so far all round, though I've no idea how good or bad their stat recording is.

Ignoring tiny countries, Belgium is by far the worst affected in terms of recorded deaths/million pop so far, though the quality of data won't be consistent. You could probably add 50% onto the UK figure, but the same may be true of some of the others - probably all of them are understated to some extent. Also, countries are at different stages:

Deaths/Million
560 Belgium
474 Spain
415 Italy
327 France
267 UK
244 Neth
200 Sweden
174 Switz
156 Ireland
144 USA

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

There are sound reasons why per capita isn’t the way to judge how an outbreak (or multiple outbreaks) is being handled in each country.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1249821596199596034?s=21

[kukushkin88]

Belgium is being accused of being too honest, as it is including retirement homes, but 4% of those deaths are identified Covid cases and 96% are suspected ones.
On the other hand, it may be the only country reporting the true rate.

https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/22/analysis-can-we-trust-belgium-s-covid-19-death-statistics

It is amazing that ‘too honest’ is even a thing in a situation like this, no doubt it is though. Belgium are clear leaders for accurate reporting in Europe, France are very good as well.

[nirvana]

Belgium is being accused of being too honest, as it is including retirement homes, but 4% of those deaths are identified Covid cases and 96% are suspected ones.
On the other hand, it may be the only country reporting the true rate.

https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/22/analysis-can-we-trust-belgium-s-covid-19-death-statistics

It is amazing that ‘too honest’ is even a thing in a situation like this, no doubt it is though. Belgium are clear leaders for accurate reporting in Europe, France are very good as well.

You can't draw the conclusion they are being the most accurate at all. Very good chance our ONS stats are the most accurate in Europe.

[Doobs]

Belgium is being accused of being too honest, as it is including retirement homes, but 4% of those deaths are identified Covid cases and 96% are suspected ones.
On the other hand, it may be the only country reporting the true rate.

https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/22/analysis-can-we-trust-belgium-s-covid-19-death-statistics

It is amazing that ‘too honest’ is even a thing in a situation like this, no doubt it is though. Belgium are clear leaders for accurate reporting in Europe, France are very good as well.

You can't draw the conclusion they are being the most accurate at all. Very good chance our ONS stats are the most accurate in Europe.

I'd be pretty sure the ONS figures and those on the website of the Actuarial Profession are likely to be high quality. 

A lot of people are making poor interpretations of the data and then assuming everybody else must be too. 

[Jon MW]

...

Poland  - Pop 38m. 10,346 cases - 435 deaths, 1,740 recovered, 8,171 active (8,011 mild, 160 serious), deaths/million 11.
Ukraine - Pop 44m.   7,170 cases - 187 deaths,   504 recovered, 6,479 active (6,434 mild,   45 serious), deaths/million   4.

Eastern Europe seems to have away fairly lightly so far all round, though I've no idea how good or bad their stat recording is.
...

Poland has about 47 million air passengers a year
Ukraine has about 26 million

The UK has about 176 million.

With the disclaimer that as with everything else - it needs proper analysis to really work it out - it might be Eastern Europe's lower level of connectivity reduced the epidemic level.

[kukushkin88]

Belgium is being accused of being too honest, as it is including retirement homes, but 4% of those deaths are identified Covid cases and 96% are suspected ones.
On the other hand, it may be the only country reporting the true rate.

https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/22/analysis-can-we-trust-belgium-s-covid-19-death-statistics

It is amazing that ‘too honest’ is even a thing in a situation like this, no doubt it is though. Belgium are clear leaders for accurate reporting in Europe, France are very good as well.

You can't draw the conclusion they are being the most accurate at all. Very good chance our ONS stats are the most accurate in Europe.

Yeah, it’s a good criticism. Providing data that most accurately the reflects the current reality in a timely manner, would be a better way of expressing it. The ONS data currently understates the number of Covid deaths. Can we call this a flaw or is it too soon? (looking to Doobs for a steer on this).

[Doobs]

...

Poland  - Pop 38m. 10,346 cases - 435 deaths, 1,740 recovered, 8,171 active (8,011 mild, 160 serious), deaths/million 11.
Ukraine - Pop 44m.   7,170 cases - 187 deaths,   504 recovered, 6,479 active (6,434 mild,   45 serious), deaths/million   4.

Eastern Europe seems to have away fairly lightly so far all round, though I've no idea how good or bad their stat recording is.
...

Poland has about 47 million air passengers a year
Ukraine has about 26 million

The UK has about 176 million.

With the disclaimer that as with everything else - it needs proper analysis to really work it out - it might be Eastern Europe's lower level of connectivity reduced the epidemic level.

It is probably a combination of bad reporting and different place on the curve.

South Korea was reporting way more deaths than us at the beginning, but that didn't mean they were worse than us at slowing the spread...