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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 353702 times)
arbboy
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« Reply #1740 on: April 26, 2020, 09:49:17 PM »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0G63uzhFP4

This guy says it better than anyone in case you haven't seen it. 
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nirvana
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« Reply #1741 on: April 26, 2020, 09:53:13 PM »

My 91 year old gran tested positive for covid in hospital today.   Fingers crossed i am going to use the poker saying i hate but use my 'one time'.  Stay safe everyone and think about how what you do affects the elderly and vulnerable in society.   Everyone on blonde is smart enough to know that but never be afraid to lecture to the brain dead in society.

Fingers crossed for you and your gran mate 🤞, really hope she pulls through.

Me too but i doubt she will she literally ticks every box possible for covid.   She was locked up safely at home but had a fall at home and an infection and had to go into hospital.   Hence the current situation.  I feel as much for my mum who has invested so much time and effort trying to keep her safe but a random fall at her age has forced a hospital trip.  

Sorry to hear this mate. Tough on your mum and gran
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arbboy
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« Reply #1742 on: April 26, 2020, 09:57:15 PM »

My 91 year old gran tested positive for covid in hospital today.   Fingers crossed i am going to use the poker saying i hate but use my 'one time'.  Stay safe everyone and think about how what you do affects the elderly and vulnerable in society.   Everyone on blonde is smart enough to know that but never be afraid to lecture to the brain dead in society.

Fingers crossed for you and your gran mate 🤞, really hope she pulls through.

Me too but i doubt she will she literally ticks every box possible for covid.   She was locked up safely at home but had a fall at home and an infection and had to go into hospital.   Hence the current situation.  I feel as much for my mum who has invested so much time and effort trying to keep her safe but a random fall at her age has forced a hospital trip.  

Sorry to hear this mate. Tough on your mum and gran

Its way tougher on mum.  gran is an old school legend with dementia who only said a month ago 'what is the virus all about i have lived through a world war that killed millions' whilst she reads this in her daily mail in her country house.   So ironic if it wasn't true.  If she had never gone iinto hospital she would never have caught it but the older you get the more likely you are to need to go into hospital for a non covid issue and the nhs wonders why non covid things in hospitals have collapsed.   No one wants to go anywhere near a hospital for this reason.  The workers are risking their lives every day.  Hats off to them all the risks they take for the tiny wages they earn.
« Last Edit: April 26, 2020, 10:03:24 PM by arbboy » Logged
kukushkin88
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« Reply #1743 on: April 26, 2020, 09:59:23 PM »


https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1254462206403588096?s=21

The all cause mortality international comparisons.

Seems that the U.K. excess non Covid deaths, that came along by coincidence (according to some), nearly all came along in the Covid hotspots.

Interesting data - I do like Burn Murdoch.
Who is saying it is coincidence?

It was a contentious topic ITT thread after the first relevant ONS update. Without a better explainer, the graphs in the Tuesday briefings make an absolute assumption that the other excess deaths aren’t Covid. I think it’s fair to say that just in general (including most people I talk to) people think U.K. Coronavirus deaths are “around 20,000” .

Terminology is important.

"...Seems that the U.K. excess non Covid deaths, that came along by coincidence (according to some), nearly all came along in the Covid hotspots. ..."

Is the right terminology, even if you didn't mean it. Some of those deaths are COVID19 but weren't recorded as such, some of them are not COVID19 - but that doesn't mean that they didn't happen because of the virus.

There is a difference between "died of COVID19" and "died because of COVID19".

The scientific advisors at the daily press conferences have been very clear about this over and over again, but some like the FT seem to be pretty much stuck on saying every excess death is "of COVID19" and not "because of COVID19", I'm sure they know exactly what the difference is - it goes back to what was previously mentioned about having a firm editorial policy and not moving from it.

The briefings including the hospital and ONS deaths - are exactly what they are described as. They explain exactly what they are, and they've explained about the other types of deaths caused by COVID19 indirectly. Do you think they should include the hospital deaths? And the ONS official death certificate count? And the difference between the 5 year average (the excess deaths)? As well as the hospital deaths, official deaths and excess deaths of every other country they include on their graphs?
At some point you've got to make a decision about how much information you include and given all this data is readily available anyway it doesn't seem a terrible decision to focus on the official figures on a weekly basis and leave the in depth analysis until later.

That reads almost like you think you’re lecturing me, quite odd at this stage of discussions. Given the Seb Payne article today, it might be time to move on from the idea that the FT have a one dimensional editorial position on this. I think the numbers are communicated very carefully so that people can go around with the idea that U.K. Covid death roll is around 20,000.

Check again with the actuary reports for a good understanding on what the fatalities classified as non Covid excess deaths probably died of.

Are you saying you do think that every excess death represents somebody who contracted COVID19, died from it, but didn't have COVID19 put on their death certificate?

Certainly not all but I am saying it appears that a lot have been missed and we know at least some doctors have been discouraged from putting Covid on death certificates. Check Doobs explanation to me earlier in the week, it would be too weird for us to be out of line with all other nations by an amount that’s strikingly similar to the number of unexplained excess deaths we have. Let’s wait and see what Tuesday morning brings. As always I’d welcome an explanation from Doobs if I have this wrong.
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Jon MW
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« Reply #1744 on: April 26, 2020, 10:06:09 PM »


https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1254462206403588096?s=21

The all cause mortality international comparisons.

Seems that the U.K. excess non Covid deaths, that came along by coincidence (according to some), nearly all came along in the Covid hotspots.

Interesting data - I do like Burn Murdoch.
Who is saying it is coincidence?

It was a contentious topic ITT thread after the first relevant ONS update. Without a better explainer, the graphs in the Tuesday briefings make an absolute assumption that the other excess deaths aren’t Covid. I think it’s fair to say that just in general (including most people I talk to) people think U.K. Coronavirus deaths are “around 20,000” .

Terminology is important.

"...Seems that the U.K. excess non Covid deaths, that came along by coincidence (according to some), nearly all came along in the Covid hotspots. ..."

Is the right terminology, even if you didn't mean it. Some of those deaths are COVID19 but weren't recorded as such, some of them are not COVID19 - but that doesn't mean that they didn't happen because of the virus.

There is a difference between "died of COVID19" and "died because of COVID19".

The scientific advisors at the daily press conferences have been very clear about this over and over again, but some like the FT seem to be pretty much stuck on saying every excess death is "of COVID19" and not "because of COVID19", I'm sure they know exactly what the difference is - it goes back to what was previously mentioned about having a firm editorial policy and not moving from it.

The briefings including the hospital and ONS deaths - are exactly what they are described as. They explain exactly what they are, and they've explained about the other types of deaths caused by COVID19 indirectly. Do you think they should include the hospital deaths? And the ONS official death certificate count? And the difference between the 5 year average (the excess deaths)? As well as the hospital deaths, official deaths and excess deaths of every other country they include on their graphs?
At some point you've got to make a decision about how much information you include and given all this data is readily available anyway it doesn't seem a terrible decision to focus on the official figures on a weekly basis and leave the in depth analysis until later.

That reads almost like you think you’re lecturing me, quite odd at this stage of discussions. Given the Seb Payne article today, it might be time to move on from the idea that the FT have a one dimensional editorial position on this. I think the numbers are communicated very carefully so that people can go around with the idea that U.K. Covid death roll is around 20,000.

Check again with the actuary reports for a good understanding on what the fatalities classified as non Covid excess deaths probably died of.

Are you saying you do think that every excess death represents somebody who contracted COVID19, died from it, but didn't have COVID19 put on their death certificate?

Certainly not all but I am saying it appears that a lot have been missed and we know at least some doctors have been discouraged from putting Covid on death certificates. Check Doobs explanation to me earlier in the week, it would be too weird for us to be out of line with all other nations by an amount that’s strikingly similar to the number of unexplained excess deaths we have. Let’s wait and see what Tuesday morning brings. As always I’d welcome an explanation from Doobs if I have this wrong.

The point I was making was that the tweet you linked and the FT news stories are written in a way that infers that the number of people who have died from  COVID19 equals the ONS figure plus the excess deaths figure.

Even if you ignore variance it should differentiate between "died from" and "died because of"; particularly for international comparisons.
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Marky147
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« Reply #1745 on: April 26, 2020, 11:17:10 PM »

Fingers crossed for your Nan, Mark.


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arbboy
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« Reply #1746 on: April 26, 2020, 11:24:21 PM »

Fingers crossed for your Nan, Mark.




Cheers marky was just talking to someone today about our final table in brighton in 2009 with the younger Dave Welch who won it (after 3 outering me three handed haha).  I never seen the guy who came 2nd again in my life since.  Still got no idea who he was.  He must send Welch a xmas card every yeaar for his call off with a3 off to gift him another ÂŁ5k icm wise.  No idea how they ended up chopping it up either.  Mug boy welch had well over 90% of the chips heads up when he busted me.   Seems a lot longer ago than 11 years sponsored by lolbrokes.  great days at the seattle/rend in the marina.

https://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/event.php?a=r&n=36162

anyone ever heard of the second in or a total random?
« Last Edit: April 26, 2020, 11:30:57 PM by arbboy » Logged
Marky147
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« Reply #1747 on: April 26, 2020, 11:37:36 PM »

Fingers crossed for your Nan, Mark.


Cheers marky was just talking to someone today about our final table in brighton in 2009 with the younger Dave Welch who won it (after 3 outering me three handed haha).  I never seen the guy who came 2nd again in my life since.  Still got no idea who he was.  He must send Welch a xmas card every yeaar for his call off with a3 off to gift him another ÂŁ5k icm wise.   Seems a lot longer ago than 11 years sponsored by lolbrokes.  great days at the seattle/rend in the marina.

https://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/event.php?a=r&n=36162

anyone ever heard of the second in or a total random?

Haha, that was a long time ago. Great days, indeed!

Vishal that came 2nd was a nice fellow, remember talking to him a bit when we made the final of the Hard Rock MTT with main event packages added in Vegas. I bubbled, obv Cheesy

He had only just started if I remember correctly. I didn't see him again after Vegas, and only remember seeing Dave a couple times after the Vegas trip*

*Other than BGT Smiley
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arbboy
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« Reply #1748 on: April 26, 2020, 11:41:20 PM »

Fingers crossed for your Nan, Mark.


Cheers marky was just talking to someone today about our final table in brighton in 2009 with the younger Dave Welch who won it (after 3 outering me three handed haha).  I never seen the guy who came 2nd again in my life since.  Still got no idea who he was.  He must send Welch a xmas card every yeaar for his call off with a3 off to gift him another ÂŁ5k icm wise.   Seems a lot longer ago than 11 years sponsored by lolbrokes.  great days at the seattle/rend in the marina.

https://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/event.php?a=r&n=36162

anyone ever heard of the second in or a total random?

Haha, that was a long time ago. Great days, indeed!

Vishal that came 2nd was a nice fellow, remember talking to him a bit when we made the final of the Hard Rock MTT with main event packages added in Vegas. I bubbled, obv Cheesy

He had only just started if I remember correctly. I didn't see him again after Vegas, and only remember seeing Dave a couple times after the Vegas trip*

*Other than BGT Smiley

ok cheers.  I never saw him again anywhere.  Welch used to date the Italian essex based boutique owner (can't remember her name) who used to play at southend and dtd with her mother!   I always remember her telling me years after when she had blown him out what a prick dave was after calling me a prick on the final table of that brighton event whilst she was dating him on the rail! 
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arbboy
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« Reply #1749 on: April 26, 2020, 11:42:56 PM »

very thinly veiled brags even me and marky could bink decent four figure sums in the dark ages!   Cheesy
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Marky147
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« Reply #1750 on: April 26, 2020, 11:48:26 PM »

very thinly veiled brags even me and marky could bink decent four figure sums in the dark ages!   Cheesy

Yeah, I remember his mrs and her old dear now you mention it. Just looked and Vishal only had a couple scores local and at DTD for a few hundred quid.

I could just about nick a few quid, while everyone was still giving it away Cheesy
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arbboy
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« Reply #1751 on: April 26, 2020, 11:50:11 PM »

very thinly veiled brags even me and marky could bink decent four figure sums in the dark ages!   Cheesy

Yeah, I remember his mrs and her old dear now you mention it. Just looked and Vishal only had a couple scores local and at DTD for a few hundred quid.

I could just about nick a few quid, while everyone was still giving it away Cheesy

must have been his big day out in the sun the same as us two as well!  wish someone would have told me i would have stopped then and moved on!  Vish must have knew!
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Marky147
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« Reply #1752 on: April 26, 2020, 11:54:31 PM »

very thinly veiled brags even me and marky could bink decent four figure sums in the dark ages!   Cheesy

Yeah, I remember his mrs and her old dear now you mention it. Just looked and Vishal only had a couple scores local and at DTD for a few hundred quid.

I could just about nick a few quid, while everyone was still giving it away Cheesy

must have been his big day out in the sun the same as us two as well!  wish someone would have told me i would have stopped then and moved on!  Vish must have knew!

Yeah, those with the 'one and run' attitude are the smart ones, lol.
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arbboy
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« Reply #1753 on: April 26, 2020, 11:58:21 PM »

back to the real business now sorry for the unintended derail.   
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Karabiner
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« Reply #1754 on: April 27, 2020, 12:15:11 AM »

Fingers crossed for your Nan, Mark.




What he said.

Hoping for the best Mark.
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